[neeraj0272]

https://youtu.be/z0vDYs7OEew

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...774972928.html


Some funny and relevant social media posts on the current topic.

[ArTigor]

Quite interesting to see words of deception, The press release by SEBI takes the whole topic to a different side, their press release emphasizes more on how the Indian stock market is robust and how they have measures to check the volatility of the 'business conglomerate'. But that is not the answer to the question, we know the stock market is robust, other stocks were doing regular business on those days. The question to SEBI is, if the allegation is right then a big elephant has been stolen from under your nose and yet you are saying there is ample of grass for the elephant!
The finance ministry is also giving such deceiving statements like "Regulators should be on their toes to keep market stable". Some one other called it 'Just a storm in a cup', these are very shameful statements.
What I feel is that there is a big push to shift the question from 'are those allegations correct?' to 'do we have the right intervening mechanism?'

Read more at:
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...campaign=cppst

[ImranHyd]

Originally Posted by ArTigor

What I feel is that there is a big push to shift the question from 'are those allegations correct?' to 'do we have the right intervening mechanism?'

I think enough mechanism is in place to check this kind of malpractices, but it requires 'human' intervention, and, in this case, it is clear the SEBI or any other institution like DRI or ED or CBI is trying to avoid investigation.

[Fuldagap]

Originally Posted by ImranHyd

I think enough mechanism is in place to check this kind of malpractices, but it requires 'human' intervention....

It's akin to the Rs 14,000 crore Nirav Modi scam where PNB officials connived to bypass the core banking while transactions were taking place through SWIFT. It was quite ingenious.

Or the Rs 50,000 crore NSE co-location scam where even a team of SEBI high profile personnel were locked up in a room when they approached and tried confronting the people who were at that time accessing servers illegally. It was spectacular, the whole of it.

Or the Rs. 5,500 crore NSEL scam. The list is endless.

Powerful individuals can do what they like.

Some people, hell bent on taking advantage of their access and nature of job, can and will always bypass checks, balances and protocols in place to achieve personal gains.
So many petty and spectacular scams take place on and off, these institutions are but a sham.

There was one particular fraud in a particular bank, I don't wish to name, even after years of investigations by top notch officials from all sorts of top notch agencies, were not able to trace out where a particular sum of money (approx 22 crore Rs.) went. The fraud amounted to some 1,000 crore rs in total. Genius people.

Some members have speculated a large int agency helping out Hindenburg. IMHO they did a forensic investigation themselves. Investigation and int are very very different fields. Although sometimes work in tandem and there is a thin line differentiating both of them. When an individual or an organisation is targeted, there is little use of int. Investigation suffices in itself. There was no way Hindenberg could have kept their ongoing investigation under wraps for 2 years. People in the know already would (must?) have known what was brewing and coming. Moreover, a large or small int agency can not bypass the chain of command and help out an external private company, unless the agency goes rogue. This cannot happen in our country.

[YK85]

Originally Posted by Tucker48

The doors are s.....

I expect more pressure on India until India stops importing Russian Oil as sanctions might backfire.

India is importing oil at heavily discounted prices, although that is not reflected in retail prices, but cheap energy is a must for a country to become developed. Germany is an example. Without cheap Russian energy, it wouldn't have become an industrial powerhouse.

We will like the whole world to think that we are competing with China but the truth is we are competing with the whole world.

Bottom line, world is not a fair place, and everyone is biased.

Two problems with that - Importing cheap Russian oil is being done just to line the pockets of Ambani as it's just processed and exported to Europe.
It doesn't help the Indian public and our oil prices remain at gouging levels.
And I for one would not even want to fuel my vehicle with what is essentially the blood of murdered Ukrainians.

The other problem is viewing this through the prism of nationalism.
Has protecting frauds and scamsters become a part of Indian patriotism now?
Simple question is why we needed Hindenburg report to wake us up? What were our agencies doing and what are they doing even now?
There is no doubt that fraudulent manipulation of stock has taken place so why no investigation till now?
It clearly shows that our regulatory agencies are not credible and that is a much bigger taint on the nation's international reputation.
The world may not be a fair place but a crime was committed and they simply pointed it out. Crying victim here just provides protection to frauds.

[LOL_FWD]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Prof. Aswath Damodaran (Google this name, he is called the DEAN OF VALUATION) says the fair value of Adani Enterprises is Rs. 950 per share
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com...cting.html?m=1

Attachment 2415154

(click on image to open in new window and zoom in to see the numbers clearly)

I love the way he puts his spin on company valuations and his commentory with low-key digs. He discusses the same issue in the video below. Sharing it here for the benefit of lazy folk like me

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oVGJeBe_xGA

[CaptCarrot]

All of the various arguments and distractions aside I can only see a simple question to ask.

Has the commercial enterprise named Adani been manipulating shares through offshore companies and is that legal according to Indian law?

Are the ministries of corporate affairs, finance and the various investigative agencies not duty bound to say that they have checked these allegations and can confirm that these are all lies.

If this is a co-ordinated attack on our sovereign nation, then I don't understand why no agency has been able to say this is untrue.
Wouldn't that be the right strong response that anyone attacking India deserves. All I see till now is stocks falling and falling...

[vishnurp99]

Just wanted to share couple of comments :

The definition of "related party transactions" is still evolving in India and there are contradictions between different government laws like company law, listing regulations, tax acts etc. if there is a companies secretary or a corporate accountant, he may be able to throw more light on this and I am ready and happy to be corrected here. So it may not be straightforward to address the legality of what Adani has done. So if somebody has concerns, he has to take this to a court of law. These allegations of related party shell companies for stock manipulation are not new. Since nobody has taken Adani to court and got a favorable verdict yet, we have to assume that what is being done is per the laws present in our country. This could be different from the law in the states.

I also believe that what is illegal in 2022 may not have been illegal in an earlier time frame. Hopefully this will bring some much needed clarity on the laws around this topic.

The other thing is valuing infrastructural companies are complex. A bunch of large investors sees companies which owns ports, airports, has contracted tolling rights on roads etc as inflation hedges. As most market participants are aware, repeated quantitative easing and geopolitical conflicts has led to an anticipation of inflation from 2020 onwards. That has lead to greater focus on the infra sector. Adani is the most competent infra player in demographically young and fast developing India. There are china concerns because of geopolitical and demographic reasons. So it's natural that valuations rose for the most successful infra developer in India.

Now some of you may be wondering why Adani Enterprises has fallen so much. I believe that a bunch of adani companies like Adani total gas, Adani transmissions, Adani green etc are not on the F&O market. Now what does an investor do if he has invested money in these companies and wants to hedge his investment. He goes and shorts the flagship company of Adani through the F&O route because if there is really an issue with Adani, then the flagshhip is going to go down and his investments in the other stocks could also be hedged.

Finally, I have never had an Adani share before the crash last week. I have some now. I brought it because in my view, once confidence comes back, the rise of Adani enterprises & ports will be quick because there will be short covering not just for these 2 stocks but the rest of the Adani pack which is currently being done on these stocks.

[download2live]

Originally Posted by LOL_FWD

I love the way he puts his spin on company valuations and his commentory with low-key digs. He discusses the same issue in the video below. Sharing it here for the benefit of lazy folk like me

https://www.Youtube.com/watch?v=oVGJeBe_xGA

I respect professor and actually I am subscribed to his blog. His humility is a product of his wisdom.

But then at the same time I do not accept his his criticisms blindly. He himself acknowledges that he has been wrong many times. Take his recent piece on Tesla.

"As I will note in more detail in the post, I have been wrong, and sometimes hopelessly so, in some of my earlier valuations of Tesla, but that does not stop me from trying anew. "

"My Tesla History

I have valued Tesla multiple times over the last decade, and while I have been wrong at each turn, I have tried to learn from my mistakes."

"My Tesla Valuations over Time

My first valuation of Tesla was in 2013, and I found the company significantly overvalued then, and in hindsight, there were three errors that I made in that valuation that I systematically found myself repeating in my early valuations."

While he makes all good point about Adani what if in hindsight he finds he was wrong on some points?

Can an investor afford to be a part of his learning journey?

He found many valid reasons Tesla was overvalued or the whole business model was flawed. But what was the end result?
Tesla investors made good money. Cold hard cash.

Same story with Adani. We the arm chair economists have been on fire. What about the silent investors who invested in Adani since last 10 years. Are they in losses?

It has to fall below Rs 400 for 2012 investors to make losses.
It is a difficult job being a retail investor. We should stick to index tracking funds. I hope most of the commentators here are not investors.

[dailydriver]

Having often been seen as going the extra mile in facilitating setting up of new business ventures through its much acclaimed policy of minimum government, maximum governance and being perceived as having sold off many of the family silvers (specially to the current person/firm of interest) in pursuit of it’s belief of government has no business doing business, isn’t a public statement on the floor of the Parliament (currently in session) the minimum service that must rightly be expected from the Minister of Finance and Corporate Affairs, GOI?

Doesn’t the much maligned common man have the right to know what’s actually happening? If the very temples of democracy fail to provide answers to questions being asked by both the men on the streets as well as those ensconced in the ivory towers, whither should one look? What should one make of the deafening silence?

Disowning a private party is one thing, dismissing the legitimate concerns of crores of citizens is another. By not being transparent, either in speech or in action, the government is, in my view, treading a minefield.

There is an elephant in the room.

All of us are seeing it.

The government, however, says that since the said elephant belongs to a private party, it won’t even acknowledge its existence; forget about addressing it!

It is perhaps time we recall the title of the once popular evening entertainer and demand in unison India wants to know!

[poloman]

Originally Posted by dailydriver

Disowning a private party is one thing, dismissing the legitimate concerns of crores of citizens is another. By not being transparent, either in speech or in action, the government is, in my view, treading a minefield.

There is an elephant in the room.

![/b]

I have made my reservations on the Adani/Ambani and the family oriented crony capitalism in India in some of my earlier posts. But off late I am seeing mostly posts with political undertones. Let me put out some contrarian arguments.

What exactly is the concern of the crores of citizens in the country?

Is it fall in market price?
This is not an offence. FB lost 26% share price in one day. 250B USD was wiped out in one day. No regulator can control this. Or now regulator will decide what price a stock should trade and what not?

Is it loss to LIC and SBI?
Is there a real loss to these companies so far? I am seeing reports that LIC is still sitting at a profit of 100% in the Adani shares. Adani has not defaulted any loans so far. So how is SBI affected? This is a clever ploy to make people believe that average common man or tax payer has lost these billions of dollars.

Coming to the unexplained climb in share price. I was looking at the adani enterprises share prices. The share climbed from Rs 30 to around Rs 500 from 2004 to 2014. How many in the forum noticed that the stock peaked around 700 around 2011 itself. From 2014 it dipped back to Rs 75 around 2017. The steep climb happened only after 2019-2020. So in 6 years of current regime there was no manipulation? Why did the shares indeed fall when new government took over?
The share has similar sharp rise and falls through out last 20 years.

The retail participation in the stocks are also low. So who is making money at expense of whom? If general public has not lost money what are we seeking here in answers. Round tripping and shell companies will be common feature of most companies in India and abroad. This is not something new and if this is stopped the entire market may fall by 50%. Are we ready for that?

Is this largest con in corporate history?? mmm.. this coming from a US entity.! I request to just use common sense.

[trippytragopan]

With respect to this issue, I have zero hope of any discussion happening in the parliament. The forming of JPC or supreme court supervised committee is a far-fetched idea.

[avishar]

The Adani saga is so laughably stupid by now. Imagine halting parliamentary proceedings over this.

Short-seller attacked an overvalued company. Overvalued company saw its market price correct. Short-seller made money. Company management had to make some strategic decisions regarding repayment, capex and diversifications. That is it.

Instead, people on both sides of the spectrum has gone nuts. Frothing at the mouth for various reasons. Infact, instead of arguing had they bought Adani Enterprises on Friday, they would have been sitting on a 60% profit (firmly tongue-in-cheek)

Adani has had to cough up money to pre-pay some debt to free some pledged shares and that is probably the most "real-world consequence" that this report will have forced upon the conglomerate.

[Chetan_Rao]

The whole episode reminds me of the 'Thak Thak' gang and other waylaying tactics on our roads.

Someone knocks on my car window and says there's something wrong with my car. I don't trust them, they may have ulterior motives, nothing seems obviously wrong with my car and it's drivable for the moment, so I don't stop and drive home.

Next morning, something seems off with my car when I start it. I want to take a look but I'm a noob, so ask my 'expert' neighbor to help. When I tell him about the random chap warning me the night before, my neighbor brushes it off saying they just wanted to loot you, nothing's wrong with your car.

I'm inclined to agree, I'm more familiar with my neighbor and the random guy might very well have had ulterior motives, but something's wrong with my car too. Worse, what if the random guy targeted me because something was apparently wrong with my car, making me a prime target for his ulterior motives?

But what do I know? I'm a noob being bombarded by 'experts' telling me both things can't be true at once.

[msdivy]

What if Hindenburg had not happened? What would the story be then? Will Adani would have honored all his debts?