[vivekiny2k]

Originally Posted by hondadude

There is an important point that you are missing here. The attrition is 15% or more in most of the big companies. They don't have to downsize, they just have to stop hiring.

15%? and where do they go? in another S/W company. the overall pool remains the same.

if a crisis happens, do you think still 15% of people would like to leave every year?

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by hondadude

There is an important point that you are missing here. The attrition is 15% or more in most of the big companies. They don't have to downsize, they just have to stop hiring.

Nope, I ain't missing anything. The 15% attrition happens when times are good. When times are bad, the hiring gets freezed in all companies. Who is going to jump where?

[finneyp]

Originally Posted by Samurai

When times are bad, the hiring gets freezed in all companies. Who is going to jump where?

Very true! Real bad times for IT guys looking for a change! :(

[tsk1979]

Originally Posted by finneyp

Very true! Real bad times for IT guys looking for a change! :(

There is always room for experienced folks. If you want a hike jump

[dadu]

The Senior/Top management should act as role models in these times, but am I being too optimistic.

- Take a cut in the reimbursements, fuel etc.
- Take a cut in their annual increments, bonuses.
- Shift the white goods eligibility/ FA replacements (cars etc) to next year.


I am sure if you do that across the senior management board in large conglomerates, the net effect will be equivalent to, if done on all middle/ lower management employees and you might not have to do it at lower levels.

Imagine the salary levels and its affect on the BS/P&L, if he took it.

Apple Inc. Chief Executive Steve Jobs continued his tradition of taking home only $1 in salary in 2007, when he also gained $14.6 million on paper by exercising stock options that were about to expire, according to a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

You can read the full article here

[abhishek_rait]

Originally Posted by maddy42

Well what i heard is that people having a variable pay in TCS will have more than 1.5% cut in salaries for the next 2 months as the company didnt reach their unrealistic target which had been set for the quarter

Guys , even i am getting affected with it about 8k for two months . what the

[Mr.Bangalore]

came across this article.. thought of sharing with you guys...

IT sector deflates, no more soaring salaries

[w 12]

Originally Posted by vivekiny2k

1. I mean because of the spare cash IT guys have, all other industries have kept raising their prices, auto makers have gained so much from them.


2. if forex based business are busted, it will be a big mess for sure.

1. Not really IMO. The Indian Auto Market is too huge to be dependent on one segment of economy.

2. It will be a big mess for Sectors and industries whose only strength was leveraging of a weak rupee against a strong dollar.Real innovators will survive and thrive.

But for Indian economy as a whole, A weak dollar and a strengthening rupee are good. India imports much more than it exports. So every dip in the dollar strengthens our economy. Some specific sectors will be hit, but in a free market economy , there are no free lunches

P>S> Rupee is expected to stabilise at 28 - 30 to a dollar in next 3 years, as per some economic surveys. 28 is supposed to be its natural exchange rate as of now , and has been artificially propped up to around 39 right now by RBI. RBI is gradually moving away from intervening , when rupee strengthens against dollar.

[hondadude]

Originally Posted by vivekiny2k

15%? and where do they go? in another S/W company. the overall pool remains the same.

if a crisis happens, do you think still 15% of people would like to leave every year?

Where is the crisis ? Everyone is still hiring. There might be a bit of a slowdown but that's about it.

Nope, I ain't missing anything. The 15% attrition happens when times are good. When times are bad, the hiring gets freezed in all companies. Who is going to jump where?

IIRC, even during the supposedly slow times of 2001, the attrition levels were above 10%. Unless there is a severe crisis, the demand for experienced people is always there. The people who suffer during slowdown are fresh grads. However currently the IT majors in India are still winning big deals.

[gkrishn]

Originally Posted by hondadude

Where is the crisis ?

The crisis is about impending crisis...

Seriously some comments here have gone over board. Some one said that he is happy to be not working in IT field. For all the growth this field had in current and previous decade, what we see today is not even a correction. Not even a minor blip... we have to sit back and see how the Indian service company are going to handle this $ thing.

MNC are a different case altogether, might run away at drop of hat. Heard some where that accenture owns practically nothing in india. Just few(20,000???) people on payroll...

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by w 12

But for Indian economy as a whole, A weak dollar and a strengthening rupee are good. India imports much more than it exports. So every dip in the dollar strengthens our economy.

This is a new concept. The decreasing dollar will further fuel imports and severely affect the exports. You are the first person I have heard who says more imports over exports is good. Kindly explain your POV.

[maddy42]

Well the only thing which i see good is that with the decrase in dollar prices the FUEL prices will reduce. Well lets see when that happens. A country with more exports than Imports is good compared to one where they import many of the products. Imports are not good for the economy as a whole.
Right Samurai?

[w 12]

Exports from India last year - $ 125 Billion

Imports for the same year - $ 187.9 billion

Economy of India - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

We are net importers by a large margin even today. Not saying that it is a ideal situation.

Also it is a myth that only economies with weak currencies can become net exporters. Many economies with strong currencies have become net exporters like Germany , scandinavian countries etc.

So , as things stand today , a weakening dollar reduces the inflation in rupee terms. ( e.g. for a barrel of Oil , we will pay Rs.3900 now, instead of Rs. 4800 , if ruppee was at 48 / dollar ). In rupee terms the import bill got discounted by 15% . This is a definite plus for economy as a whole.

While a strong rupee vs. dollar is bad news for sectors dependent on dollar revenues, it certainly is not so for economy as a whole.

[benbsb29]

Originally Posted by hondadude

I would respect a company that downsizes but pays its employees well, than the one which follows the communist approach of everyone share the pain equally.

I would prefer the latter. While i can manage, although with difficulty, when my salary decreases, i would be dead if my source of income suddenly comes to a full stop.

Originally Posted by hondadude

Considering the massive hiring that the big 3 indulge in, they need to control/stop that before taking peanuts from employees.

This i agree.

Originally Posted by w 12

1. Not really IMO. The Indian Auto Market is too huge to be dependent on one segment of economy.

What makes you feel so? While the auto sector is not solely dependent on the IT sector, it gets a large chunk of its business from people in the IT sector. Take a look at most of the new cars which spill onto the roads, and one can notice majority do come from people in the IT industry. It sector needs transportation for its employees. That calls for cabs, and buses.

I am not saying that the auto sentor thrives only because of the IT segment, but that they do derive a substantial chunk from this industry.

As someone said earlier, a slowdown in the IT sector would see a definite slowdown in the real estate scene in the major cities - both commercial as well as homes.

[Samurai]

Originally Posted by w 12

Many economies with strong currencies have become net exporters like Germany , scandinavian countries etc.

That's not a good example. They have the unique advantage of having common currency across most EU countries, where they do most of their goods exchange. Give me an example of a country with strong currency and is a net exporter. That would be a interesting scenerio to study.

Originally Posted by w 12

So , as things stand today , a weakening dollar reduces the inflation in rupee terms. ( e.g. for a barrel of Oil , we will pay Rs.3900 now, instead of Rs. 4800 , if ruppee was at 48 / dollar ). In rupee terms the import bill got discounted by 15% . This is a definite plus for economy as a whole.

This applies only if we are paying using dollars. And how is this dollar coming to us, by exporting to US. But the US exports are coming down due to the dollar slump, which means we won't have enough dollars to pay the petrol bill. So we have to use Euro, which is much more strong now. Forget the 15% savings, unless we are willing to dump the dollar reserves, we may lose money by spending in Euros.

Originally Posted by w 12

While a strong rupee vs. dollar is bad news for sectors dependent on dollar revenues, it certainly is not so for economy as a whole.

Actually India has been hoarding huge dollar reserve for long, this sudden drop in dollar price can't be good for the economy.