Do you play the stock market

JMaruru · 2nd October 2010, 00:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by recshenoy

Guy,

is it advisable to get into stock market now or correction expected soon? Any underperforming stocks now.

Also is there any good IPO coming up other than coal india?

Some of my picks.

-Bharathi Shipyard
-Gitanjali Gems
-Godrej Industries
-Karuturi Global
-KRBL

From what i know, after 'Coal India' the next best might be SCI.

P.S. :- Pl. do your own research before investments.

aargee · 2nd October 2010, 09:01

Has anyone heard about this company called Crane Software? I was a victim to buy at heights & the stocks are in deep trouble. Wifey wants to sell them, but I would like to hold. What's your take on this?

Also what about Spice telecom & mobiles? I'm in good profits, should I sell them now or is it bound to take a big leap?

BaCkSeAtDrIVeR · 2nd October 2010, 13:26

Quote:

Originally Posted by aargee

Has anyone heard about this company called Crane Software? I was a victim to buy at heights & the stocks are in deep trouble. Wifey wants to sell them, but I would like to hold. What's your take on this?

Ideal name for fly by night operations.

It is a very steady performer - all financial parameters are steadily going DOWN.

Look at its financials. Turnover was 97 crores for quarter ended in Dec 08; and is 20.56 crorers for QE Dec 09; No results for QE March and June 2010.

It is actively traded only in BSE where the price is 7 something in these booming times. Sell out and pray that you get the cash in your hands.

Quote:

Originally Posted by JMaruru

P.S. :- Pl. do your own research before investments.

+1 to that.

Quote:

Originally Posted by recshenoy

is it advisable to get into stock market now or correction expected soon? Any underperforming stocks now.

If you need to ask, the answer would be "no; not now; not for you".

No offence meant, but this requires a lot of judgment, and predictive skills. And lot of it depends on personal goals. I do not touch certain companies, since I perceive them to be risky; but they are perceived by the market as bluechips, and are in the Sensex. And others may not touch the shares I hold.

tsk1979 · 2nd October 2010, 13:46

I sold everything, and recovered some of the losses made in last crash.
Any guesses on when is the next crash.
I am not expecting 6000 leves, but 12000 after a steady year long crash seems realistic.
Only question, will sensex touch 25000 before crashing?

aargee · 2nd October 2010, 14:22

Quote:

Originally Posted by BaCkSeAtDrIVeR

It is actively traded only in BSE where the price is 7 something in these booming times. Sell out and pray that you get the cash in your hands.

Oh!!! God!!! I need to book a loss then. I bought these guys because they were into Nano technology, but now their prices are also going to Nano

Quote:

Originally Posted by tsk1979

Any guesses on when is the next crash.

The next boom is expected around 2012/13, so anything after that, say by 2014/15 should be an ideal time when the next low might happen. Not sure if that would be called as crash. Regarding 25K, not sure, people kept saying even the magical number of 21K about 3 years ago, which didn't happen.

amitk26 · 2nd October 2010, 16:38

Quote:

Originally Posted by tsk1979

I sold everything, and recovered some of the losses made in last crash.Any guesses on when is the next crash.
I am not expecting 6000 leves, but 12000 after a steady year long crash seems realistic.
Only question, will sensex touch 25000 before crashing?

No one knows , but 20000 to 12000 crash is not just crash it has to be associated with big bust in Indian and world economy. 20000 points look a lot but sensex is not true indicator of stock market as it is based on just 30 stocks.

Where as Nifty ( 50 stocks) and NSE Midcap index based on 200 shares is more broad-based and realistic.

Quote:

Originally Posted by aargee

Oh!!! God!!! I need to book a loss then. I bought these guys because they were into Nano technology, but now their prices are also going to Nano

Most of the so called sun rise industries IPO are really cheat and even if they are not cheat they overprice the IPO Indosolar is latest example. Sell the penny stocks now and cut the losses boom time is best time to cleanup the junk.

carboy · 2nd October 2010, 20:59

Quote:

Originally Posted by amitk26

No one knows , but 20000 to 12000 crash is not just crash it has to be associated with big bust in Indian and world economy. 20000 points look a lot but sensex is not true indicator of stock market as it is based on just 30 stocks.

Where as Nifty ( 50 stocks) and NSE Midcap index based on 200 shares is more broad-based and realistic.

The BSE Sensex though only comprised of 30 stocks comprises 50% of the BSE Market caps - i.e. all the other stocks on the BSE put together have the same market cap as the 30 stocks.

The CNX Nifty forms 60% of the NSE Market Cap.
Between the Nifty & NSE Midcap, there is also the Nifty Junior, I think.
Nifty + Nifty Junior form 70% of the NSE Market cap.

The CNX S& P 500 represents 500 stocks & forms 90% of the NSE Market Cap.

dhuli · 3rd October 2010, 01:02

Quote:

Originally Posted by aargee

Has anyone heard about this company called Crane Software?

Interesting thing I heard about this company is that it does a lot of analytics kind of work and a lot for elections in India. I am not sure it is the EVM side, perhaps its the stuff psephologist's and statisticians use. I have never confirmed this. If indeed this is the business model, then it will not grow like the mainstream software companies, right?
Tough call to hold or sell. Another line of thinking is - markets are at a great high, time to get rid of poor performers and nurture the jewels for long run.

Quote:

Originally Posted by aargee

Oh!!! God!!! I need to book a loss then. I bought these guys because they were into Nano technology, but now their prices are also going to Nano

This is news to me. Crane software in nano tech. Requires a strong company like Intel or Sony or an MIT lab to crack this space. I believe a lot of nano tech future is linked to carbon fibre processing (aligning carbon nano tubes commercially), new generation polymer battery tech and so on. Nano tech is cutting edge. Crane and software...it will be decades before they do something here with such a name. Again, I havent researched this company. Just a comment!

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BaCkSeAtDrIVeR · 3rd October 2010, 10:30

aargee and dhuli - I need to add a disclaimer to my earlier post.

I am a very old school guy when it comes to investing. Ever heard of Usha rectifier and Orkay silk mills? They preceded Harshad Mehta. I have been watching the market since then. Wetted my feet only in past 3-4 years, and ain't yet neck deep.

I look at historical performance (past performance - in the financial sense). If the company has no history, if I have not heard of its name / brand / product, I give it a wide berth.

I still look at tangible assets. Any other asset is vapour ware for me. And that is why IT sector is not in my portfolio. People may disagree.And that is why I said yesterday - "each person has his/her own objectives"; pick stocks which suit our own objectives.

I had got in into the market just before the previous peak; when it bottomed out, I was still in +ve, inspite of the indices almost halving. And value of my portfolio has grown only at 2X% though the Indices have gone up 8X%. I am happy, because I was looking for stability. I get it. Others may not be happy with that.

Intangible assets (like knowledge, manpower etc) may give fantastic returns. In long term, some other knowledge may come in, and people may leave / misbehave. Some people may outperform unexpectedly. Well and fine, but there is a total lack of assurances.

Probably, in the near future, I may change my opinion on intangible assets.

And the kind of info dhuli has provided indicates need for huge investments to encash on that kind of know how, and the company does not seem to be adequately capitalised for that kind of technology (22.X crores is the paid up capital). And nano technology and analytics (hope I got the spelling correct) are very different. And worse, the analycts looks more like BPO to my narrow and evil mind. IMO. If the co. is into cutting edge technology, it needs to get out of BPO. If it is BPO, it needs to get out of "cutting edge". In other words, they lack focus.

vsh · 3rd October 2010, 21:03

Quote:

Originally Posted by tsk1979

I sold everything, and recovered some of the losses made in last crash.
Any guesses on when is the next crash.
I am not expecting 6000 leves, but 12000 after a steady year long crash seems realistic.
Only question, will sensex touch 25000 before crashing?

CRASH-es dont happen when you expect it. they usually happen when least expected or everyone is gung-ho about future. now mainly retailers are weary and out of the market the rally is going on!! so, i think instead of predicting, plan your reactions to the crash. everything will not be wiped out in one day(especially for investors) and if you remember, in 2008 there was lot of time for the investors to exit the markets- janauary to april 2008 i think.

dhuli · 3rd October 2010, 22:06

@Backseatdriver: Thanks for your perspective. I wont ever fault you for your approach. I am not so sure even a Vallabh Bhansali would or should. To quote Warren Buffet, “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” The key I guess is to do the research on a lot of sectors, the most wonderful companies among them and get in to those with the fairest or attractive price. Low P/E ratio alone is not what we should start with, but from a shortlist, pick the one with the lowest P/E - assuming the stock is genuinely undervalued! But then, our markets seem to have a mind of their own! All the wisdom never helps. I like your approach. Don't let the market bother you. Be content with your style as long as you remain positive! Who knows your kids may appreciate this style of investing. And that is what matters.

BaCkSeAtDrIVeR · 3rd October 2010, 22:43

Has anybody had a look at the infrastructure bonds (Ones where IT exemption is available, over and above the 80C limit)?

I was having a look at it, and given the low rate of interest offered - measly 7.5%, - I feel that we may be better of off payint Rs. 2,000/- as tax (at the lowest tax rate) and invest the balance in equity, rathen than lock up the amount for 10 years at imaginary rates of return.

What do others here think?

dhuli · 9th October 2010, 17:39

Sorry. Was not in town. I was thinking IDFC long term bonds seem to be attractive in these still sort of uncertain times and a fixed interest of 8% or 7.5% for next 10 years seems like a good bet also given the credit rating. Personally, I am considering this fund from 'invest for kids' view point, where liquidity is not important over 10 years, instead guaranteed returns is good. Thats my 2 cents.

rkg · 9th October 2010, 19:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by dhuli

Sorry. Was not in town. I was thinking IDFC long term bonds seem to be attractive in these still sort of uncertain times and a fixed interest of 8% or 7.5% for next 10 years seems like a good bet also given the credit rating. Personally, I am considering this fund from 'invest for kids' view point, where liquidity is not important over 10 years, instead guaranteed returns is good. Thats my 2 cents.

If you are in 30% tax bracket one will be saving Rs 6000/- on tax also in this bonds.

aargee · 15th October 2010, 17:03

I just noticed my investment on Spice Mobility of Rs 14.91 has increased to 103.60 in 3 years. Any idea as why this has happened? Is it due to Idea's effect? But that was on Spice telecommunication isn't it?

Any idea how this sector is going to perform in the forth coming years? Should I consider selling off this one soon?

View Poll Results: Stocks as a percentage of my net assets are -
0 - 25% -- I'm like the most conservative Indians. I love FDs.	396	32.25%
26 - 50% -- I have a few stocks.	550	44.79%
51 - 75% -- I'm an active trader.	201	16.37%
76 - 100% -- Hey, I'm an i-banker!!!	81	6.60%
Voters: 1228. You may not vote on this poll

2nd October 2010, 09:01	#1517
aargee Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: TSTN Posts: 6,236 Thanked: 9,637 Times	Has anyone heard about this company called Crane Software? I was a victim to buy at heights & the stocks are in deep trouble. Wifey wants to sell them, but I would like to hold. What's your take on this? Also what about Spice telecom & mobiles? I'm in good profits, should I sell them now or is it bound to take a big leap?
	() Thanks

2nd October 2010, 13:46	#1519
tsk1979 Team-BHP Support Join Date: Feb 2005 Location: San Jose, CA Posts: 23,717 Thanked: 22,825 Times View My Garage	I sold everything, and recovered some of the losses made in last crash. Any guesses on when is the next crash. I am not expecting 6000 leves, but 12000 after a steady year long crash seems realistic. Only question, will sensex touch 25000 before crashing?
	() Thanks

3rd October 2010, 10:30	#1524
BaCkSeAtDrIVeR BANNED Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Kochi Posts: 2,522 Thanked: 752 Times	aargee and dhuli - I need to add a disclaimer to my earlier post. I am a very old school guy when it comes to investing. Ever heard of Usha rectifier and Orkay silk mills? They preceded Harshad Mehta. I have been watching the market since then. Wetted my feet only in past 3-4 years, and ain't yet neck deep. I look at historical performance (past performance - in the financial sense). If the company has no history, if I have not heard of its name / brand / product, I give it a wide berth. I still look at tangible assets. Any other asset is vapour ware for me. And that is why IT sector is not in my portfolio. People may disagree.And that is why I said yesterday - "each person has his/her own objectives"; pick stocks which suit our own objectives. I had got in into the market just before the previous peak; when it bottomed out, I was still in +ve, inspite of the indices almost halving. And value of my portfolio has grown only at 2X% though the Indices have gone up 8X%. I am happy, because I was looking for stability. I get it. Others may not be happy with that. Intangible assets (like knowledge, manpower etc) may give fantastic returns. In long term, some other knowledge may come in, and people may leave / misbehave. Some people may outperform unexpectedly. Well and fine, but there is a total lack of assurances. Probably, in the near future, I may change my opinion on intangible assets. And the kind of info dhuli has provided indicates need for huge investments to encash on that kind of know how, and the company does not seem to be adequately capitalised for that kind of technology (22.X crores is the paid up capital). And nano technology and analytics (hope I got the spelling correct) are very different. And worse, the analycts looks more like BPO to my narrow and evil mind. IMO. If the co. is into cutting edge technology, it needs to get out of BPO. If it is BPO, it needs to get out of "cutting edge". In other words, they lack focus.
	() Thanks

3rd October 2010, 22:06	#1526
dhuli BHPian Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Bengaluru Posts: 201 Thanked: 49 Times	@Backseatdriver: Thanks for your perspective. I wont ever fault you for your approach. I am not so sure even a Vallabh Bhansali would or should. To quote Warren Buffet, “It’s far better to buy a wonderful company at a fair price than a fair company at a wonderful price.” The key I guess is to do the research on a lot of sectors, the most wonderful companies among them and get in to those with the fairest or attractive price. Low P/E ratio alone is not what we should start with, but from a shortlist, pick the one with the lowest P/E - assuming the stock is genuinely undervalued! But then, our markets seem to have a mind of their own! All the wisdom never helps. I like your approach. Don't let the market bother you. Be content with your style as long as you remain positive! Who knows your kids may appreciate this style of investing. And that is what matters.
	() Thanks

3rd October 2010, 22:43	#1527
BaCkSeAtDrIVeR BANNED Join Date: Jun 2007 Location: Kochi Posts: 2,522 Thanked: 752 Times	Has anybody had a look at the infrastructure bonds (Ones where IT exemption is available, over and above the 80C limit)? I was having a look at it, and given the low rate of interest offered - measly 7.5%, - I feel that we may be better of off payint Rs. 2,000/- as tax (at the lowest tax rate) and invest the balance in equity, rathen than lock up the amount for 10 years at imaginary rates of return. What do others here think?
	() Thanks

9th October 2010, 17:39	#1528
dhuli BHPian Join Date: Jun 2010 Location: Bengaluru Posts: 201 Thanked: 49 Times	Idfc Sorry. Was not in town. I was thinking IDFC long term bonds seem to be attractive in these still sort of uncertain times and a fixed interest of 8% or 7.5% for next 10 years seems like a good bet also given the credit rating. Personally, I am considering this fund from 'invest for kids' view point, where liquidity is not important over 10 years, instead guaranteed returns is good. Thats my 2 cents.
	() Thanks

15th October 2010, 17:03	#1530
aargee Senior - BHPian Join Date: Jan 2010 Location: TSTN Posts: 6,236 Thanked: 9,637 Times	I just noticed my investment on Spice Mobility of Rs 14.91 has increased to 103.60 in 3 years. Any idea as why this has happened? Is it due to Idea's effect? But that was on Spice telecommunication isn't it? Any idea how this sector is going to perform in the forth coming years? Should I consider selling off this one soon?
	() Thanks