[Altaf Petiwala]

Just my views, but levels are for people who need an excuse NOT to participate in the markets right now. If you feel its overvalued, why not short it? If you feel its cheap, why not buy it?

When it falls to 17k, people will be panicking and channels will be predicting 12k. So you wont be able to buy anyway

[vamsi.kona]

Originally Posted by Altaf Petiwala

Just my views, but levels are for people who need an excuse NOT to participate in the markets right now. If you feel its overvalued, why not short it? If you feel its cheap, why not buy it?

When it falls to 17k, people will be panicking and channels will be predicting 12k. So you wont be able to buy anyway

Believe me, unless you have too deep pocket and don't care much about the opportunity cost of your investment, planning your investment at various price levels is very important.
Simple example. A person who has invested when sensex fell to 16000 in 2008 would still be making money. However, his funds might have been idling with no returns for major part of 2008 as markets continued the slide. The returns that he/she could have earned by investing the same funds in another market would simply be his notional loss for this transaction as he is forfeiting such returns. For a professional investor this opportunity cost is also very important. Timing one's investment is of great essence both in cash as well as derivatives segment. In derivatives, timing decides 90% of your success.

As for your second point, ya traders who completely rely upon others are susceptible for such things. And generally markets are made up with majority of such traders. And some times professionals also fall into the trap.

[s.wadhwa]

Have been trying to solve an investment puzzle of sorts. Wanted to know your views. Have attached the post from the Happionaire blog. Any ideas?

Quote

A lot of people have been complaining about how everything seems to be getting more and more expensive. Lately inflation in India has been rising on a constant rate. Every asset class has gone up. An apartment in Bombay that used to cost Rs. 3 crores a year ago suddenly is now being sold for Rs. 4 crores. Not just real estate but everything from petrol prices, to energy costs to onions, all have risen rapidly. Someone was telling me how it has become so expensive to buy gold for their daughter’s wedding and complaining about things.

I completely agree inflation has risen quite a lot. But fortunately or unfortunately, the reality is that inflation will keep rising in the long term as more and more money is printed. Think of the price of an asset ten years ago and compare it today. Ten years ago, Bank of India at Rs. 12 seemed expensive to a lot of people, today it is over Rs. 400. Gold at Rs. 2500 seemed expensive to people at a time, today it is Rs. 20,000. Real estate seemed expensive to people at Rs. 10 lakhs at a time, today the same is worth over Rs. 4 crores.

During 2008, during the crash, we had a phase when everything got cheaper, but at that time people forgot to buy assets, instead they became cautious and started saving money. The reality is that, what most people consider saving money is not really saving. When banks give you even 8 or 9% interest rate, and the real world inflation is over 20% -25%, you are losing money.

What I have learnt is that, every time we are faced with a crisis, we should look for an opportunity. When petrol prices, are rising, we should try and find a way to benefit from them. When inflation is rising, we need to find out how we can benefit from it.

Now for instance let us say the government rises petrol prices, on one hand, most people will complain about paying higher petrol prices. They will sit in their Rs. 5 or Rs. 10 lakh rupee car, and complain, but very few will think about how they can benefit from the extra profits that come in from this rise in petrol prices.

Petrol is a basic necessity, when prices go up; people have no choice to pay. This is a sort of monopoly in terms of pricing, even a Rs. 2 increase in petrol prices, means thousands of crores in profits for a select few. Why don’t more people start thinking how they can benefit from these increase profits in the coming years?

Rising petrol prices cause increase in inflation, everything becomes more expensive, but in the real world we need to look at everything as opportunity. Either, we can crib and complain about everything, or be optimistic and opportunistic. I would rather be optimistic and opportunistic, it helps me think better and look for opportunities where others aren’t.

When inflation rises, it is best to look for assets that will rise faster than the normal rate of inflation. It helps to look at assets, which everyone is complaining about. If everybody around you is complaining that petrol prices are rising, maybe you should invest in oil marketing companies, if you feel onions are becoming expensive, maybe it makes sense to invest in onions. In fact onions would have given you a return of over 120% in the past one year. Another interesting thing is that to invest in onions, you don't really need a lot of money.

Now, how you go about investing in onions? I’ll give you some time to think about it. It will be fun!


Regards,
SW

[xingamazon]

^^ Here is the answer to your question

Well, just one good reason for inflation in the country.

Think of any country which you think has inflation. I will tell one character which you will find in common.

The inflation will be occuring in economies where the primary employing sector and primary income earning sector (as % of GDP) are not the same.
This would result in more money in lesser hands. Because of which inflation will occur.

Think of it, Industry is major contributor to our GDP but Agri is highest contributor to the employment. Thus the inflation, things will cool down only when the majority of indian people are employed in industries or if Agri production is improved to result in it being the highest earning sector in India.

That is the reson, we hardly had any inflation during the times when Agri sector was both leading employer and leader earner. Now there is a divide.

[recshenoy]

Originally Posted by MileCruncher

Yes the demand for IPO'S have increased with the normal scrips not giving the returns as much as IPO's were 10% is kinda
........

BTW why don't you use ASBA. no waiting for refund.


Cheers

MileCruncher,

I use shrekhan. So no ASBA. Need to open account in bank which provides 3 IN 1 account.


BTW, how many made profit/loss in MOIL today. Any losers who bought at 580 or i am alone. Without any spikes it has cleanly fallen to 466. I am in very BIG loss now.


Another sad stock was SCI. Got 244 shares of it in FPO. It is near 52 week low of 132. I could have sold at 137 and made 1K profit but was totally concentrated on MOIL. Later when MOIL went down i could not digest losses by then even SCI also had come down below issue price of 133.

So very BAD day for me today. I haven't sold MOIL though. Now usual golden words "long term" which i used to laugh till yesterday

any predictions on MOIL?

[MileCruncher]

I didn't get any share allotted for SCI even though I had applied for 5 lots. Didn't apply for MOIL due to cash crunch.

All my stocks are down except Dabur and PunjLloyd. I would need to hold atleast another 2 weeks before I can sell.

Dabur is bucking the trend, picked up at 96.5 when sensex was around 20k. Despite the downtrend in sensex, the shares peaked at 102.00.Near time prediction is about 125 by mid- Jan.

Same goes for Punj Lloyd. Near term prediction is 140.

Both these are fundamentally secure stocks which are trading much much below their 52W High and slow and steadily gaining prices.

Cheers

P.S: Did any body pick up Ispat as per my last tip of the day? It has gained about 15% in the last 2 weeks.

[recshenoy]

any one for PnS bank IPO? already subscribed 7X in RII.

RII subscription might touch 20X on last day, that is tomorrow. Now I too am in cash crunch, so not sure if to apply or not!

[chikkars]

Originally Posted by recshenoy

BTW, how many made profit/loss in MOIL today. Any losers who bought at 580 or i am alone. Without any spikes it has cleanly fallen to 466. I am in very BIG loss now.

Something really fishy with MOIL allocation. None of the people I know who applied have got any shares alloted. I applied for 20 lots (340 shares) and got 0. The recent FPO by PowerGrid was very transparent; the day shares were alloted an ad was published by them in all newspapers which clearly mentioned on what basis the shares were alloted.

[chikkars]

Originally Posted by recshenoy

any one for PnS bank IPO? already subscribed 7X in RII.

Applied today based on positive reco. from most experts. Hopefully, the allocation is transparent, & further listing is at a premium

[rkg]

Originally Posted by chikkars

Something really fishy with MOIL allocation. None of the people I know who applied have got any shares alloted. I applied for 20 lots (340 shares) and got 0. The recent FPO by PowerGrid was very transparent; the day shares were alloted an ad was published by them in all newspapers which clearly mentioned on what basis the shares were alloted.

Allocation of MOIL was published on monday in Hindu and i saw it yesterday in many telugu news papers also. MOIL was oversubscribed by almost 40 times in retail category. with 60% subscription in 527 category. In 527 ( 2 lakhs) the ratio was 49:50. so there will be one unlucky guy. for others things the ratios are around 1:30 or so.
In HNI category also people got 17 shares when they applied for 2000 odd shares ( firm allotment)

If PnS gets oversubscribed by 20 times in retails category one can expect around 1:5 allotment ( roughly, actual ratio's will vary) If firm allotment is required then subscribe for full, i.e; apply for 33 lots , 1650 shares at 198000. then one may get around 100-200

[rkg]

Originally Posted by recshenoy

MileCruncher,

I use shrekhan. So no ASBA. Need to open account in bank which provides 3 IN 1 account.

No need for 3 in 1 bank account for ASBA. any savings account with enough funds will be enough. one can apply through bank also. Not necessary to have online account. down load the form from NSE INDIA site and fill it and give to your bank.

Mods kindly merge my two posts

[recshenoy]

Thanks rkg. But i guess we need to take printouts and give a photocopy of PAN to the bank branch Not a straight forward process like we apply online like click transfer money and apply.

found the details in below website. How to apply IPO using ASBA? | Fintub - Financial Blog

[hemantbsutar]

Moil turned out to be a damp squib for me. I applied in full and did not get allotment. Glad though I did not venture into sci. Wonder how can moil trade at 100 rs lesser than listing especially with a huge demand and cheap valuations. So many I know waited for 600+ and were sad to see it fall below 500 by day end

[recshenoy]

That was my exact feeling when stock opened. i saw the price at 570 --> 580 --> 590 --> came down to 580, thought no point waiting, right away bought the shares and after that it was steady decline. Not even a single sign of recovery. Stabilized at 530 level and later went down and stayed at 508 level. Simply logged off and started working. Just saw closing price and it was 466!. I had lost 114*NNN rupees :(

I was expecting a coal India here where i sold at 315 and repented when it went to 340. And now totally reverse trend. May be in a bull market this would have gone to say 620-630 levels but today volatile market made big loss for me at least.

[PatienceWins]

Originally Posted by Altaf Petiwala

Just my views, but levels are for people who need an excuse NOT to participate in the markets right now. If you feel its overvalued, why not short it? If you feel its cheap, why not buy it?

When it falls to 17k, people will be panicking and channels will be predicting 12k. So you wont be able to buy anyway

I am with warren buffet. Buy when others are fearful and sell when others are greedy. I am in selling mode now.

The current valuations do not seem attractive for me to buy. Temperament and patience pays off in stockmarket. PatienceWins