[binand]

Originally Posted by sudev

Any suggestions for parking funds for one year. Objective is full safety at best return.

Any suggestion on debt funds?

If the date you need to take the money out is known, FD is probably the only way to go. Banks (employees) suggest whatever makes them maximum money as commission. I've been bitten badly by this - similar situation as yours, got conned by someone, broke FD to deposit in debt funds, and eventually had to top-up the losses from other sources when the time came for paying up.

[gsurya]

Originally Posted by sudev

Any suggestions for parking funds for one year. Objective is full safety at best return. Have made down payment to builder and have to pay 80% in a year on possession. Bank FD is the option I was perusing. But bank desk suggested debt funds.

No debt fund will give 100% safety; usually >90%. AAA rated Company FD is another reasonably safe option, will give you a couple of % more than bank FD.

[drsingh]

Originally Posted by nowwhat?

I am just wondering what the gurus and ordinary denizens here think about the outlook of India and its impact on the stock markets.

Right now, the stock market seems to have lost steam. Earnings season is upon us and the markets look mostly disappointed.

Personally I expect the markets to move sideways until after the monsoon and then perhaps move up, but I can't see any fireworks in FY15-16. Results wise, I only see major growth from FY16-17 on.

Overall I believe in the India story, but I think the structural reforms needed to spur growth will take time. Land Acquisition and GST may get passed in the monsoon session, but implementation especially for GST will be in FY16-17. The current RBI Governor whose term ends in September 2016 is not a believer of supply side economics and even a 1% drop until then seems generous.

Thoughts?

This kind of reality check is a good thing. The froth fizzles away and opportunities crop up in the market.
History indicates when there is massive political change, there are good, clean policy changes that push the economy higher. The new government has to prove they are deserving of their mandate.

The cronies and bureaucracy attached to previous government will be sidelined and new appointments will have to prove themselves worthy.


This period lasts 5-10 years, before complacency, cronies, bureaucracy start creating hurdles for further growth.

The macro factors favour India, demographic, lower oil prices /commodity prices.

India will be the only major growth market for commodities/fossil fuels going forward. The whole world will make India work.

There is just dearth of risk capital and government is taking steps to push domestic /foreign investment.

Corporate investment will only pick up when demand picks up. They will find ways to effect 'policy changes' when demand picks up.

[gsurya]

Originally Posted by drsingh

History indicates when there is massive political change, there are good, clean policy changes that push the economy higher. The new government has to prove they are deserving of their mandate.

The cronies and bureaucracy attached to previous government will be sidelined and new appointments will have to prove themselves worthy.

This is an astute assessment. I still remember how I picked up many good stocks when the previous govt began its term at Sensex 5500 and took it to 23500 when the new Govt took over. Hope for a similar run this time, but no signs so far.

[drsingh]

Originally Posted by gsurya

This is an astute assessment. I still remember how I picked up many good stocks when the previous govt began its term at Sensex 5500 and took it to 23500 when the new Govt took over. Hope for a similar run this time, but no signs so far.

Lots of companies have ramped up spending on capacity addition, real estate /finance companies have garnered funds.

The major problem is that there's no easy way to deal with bad loans. And all the NPA 's haven't come out yet.

Only 40 companies are responsible for 50% of NPA. Most of it with public sector banks. Pvt sector just hasn't resumed lending to these troubled sectors.

The government is not spending. Its cutting costs. But at some point it will have to push capital expenditure. That should trigger the cycle.


I would love to discuss the industrial /cyclical/infrastructure sector with those who have knowledge about it.

My thesis is that capex by PSU' S in mining, oil exploration, power plants transmission, roads, factories will spur this sector first. Some ideas I'm looking at are:

1.McNally Bharat
2.Prakash Industries
3.IFGL refractories
4.genus power
5.HIL
6.Punj Lloyd.


Any thoughts?

[nareshov]

Originally Posted by sudev

Any suggestions for parking funds for one year. Objective is full safety at best return. Have made down payment to builder and have to pay 80% in a year on possession. Bank FD is the option I was perusing. But bank desk suggested debt funds.

Any suggestion on debt funds?

Why not try an arbitrage fund instead?

[binand]

Originally Posted by nareshov

Why not try an arbitrage fund instead?

Does it provide capital protection (which is one of the requirements set by the original poster)?

[pgupta]

I am trying to collect a list of parameters for evaluating a given company if it's Worthing investing in it. I think it is worth to look at 3 year revenues, P/E ratio, Return on capital, face value etc. what would you consider adding to this list ?

[JMaruru]

Originally Posted by pgupta

I am trying to collect a list of parameters for evaluating a given company if it's Worthing investing in it. I think it is worth to look at 3 year revenues, P/E ratio, Return on capital, face value etc. what would you consider adding to this list ?

Book Value, Debt/Equity Ratio and Cash Flow.

[Lalvaz]

Originally Posted by drsingh

I would love to discuss the industrial /cyclical/infrastructure sector with those who have knowledge about it.

My thesis is that capex by PSU' S in mining, oil exploration, power plants transmission, roads, factories will spur this sector first. Some ideas I'm looking at are:

1.McNally Bharat
2.Prakash Industries
3.IFGL refractories
4.genus power
5.HIL
6.Punj Lloyd.


Any thoughts?

Not sure about the other stocks, but McNally Bharat is debt ridden and loss making. What attracted you to this stock in particular? If you believe in the infra story, look at cement stocks first.

[drsingh]

Originally Posted by Lalvaz

Not sure about the other stocks, but McNally Bharat is debt ridden and loss making. What attracted you to this stock in particular? If you believe in the infra story, look at cement stocks first.

McNally Bharat has good promoters (Williamson Magor group of Eveready Industries) and Rakesh Jhunjhunwala picked up a stake worth 25 crores along with promoter allotment at 100Rs/share.

The debt is due to receivables pending from completed projects (mainly power plants that are yet to start operations due to poor policies) . With the changes is policy, getting stuck projects on track, declining interest rates , robust order book, upcoming capex by oil and gas companies, manufacturing push.... All this leading to a turnaround is what attracted me to this company.

Any comments /critique welcome.

[drk_411]

RSI in McNally Bharat crossed below 30 on Friday reaching the oversold territory. It has been making lows almost every day, except for 5th June, with very low volumes for the last week. There might be some more pain left in the stock, though it might show some bounce back of 1-2 rupees on Monday if the overall market shows some resilience. But downfall is certainly not over yet.

[drsingh]

Originally Posted by drk_411

RSI in McNally Bharat crossed below 30 on Friday reaching the oversold territory. It has been making lows almost every day, except for 5th June, with very low volumes for the last week. There might be some more pain left in the stock, though it might show some bounce back of 1-2 rupees on Monday if the overall market shows some resilience. But downfall is certainly not over yet.

What would be a good level to get into the stock technically?

[drk_411]

Originally Posted by drsingh

What would be a good level to get into the stock technically?

Dear DrSingh,

When you buy a stock, you have to have few check, like in real life.

Your question gives rise to another question from my side, though not retaliatory.

Why would you like to get into this stock, or any other stock for that matter.

a. For a bounce back, meaning some quick gains.
b. For some medium or long term play.

Now the answers :

a. You can't beat a dead horse into life. Stocks have been known to give pain for so long a time that you might go grey. Playing for bounce backs is pretty risky. If those were good horses, they would not be dead in the first place. Or are you expecting some sharp V shaped recovery. No, its not possible.

Yes. Bounce backs are playable in certain circumstances. eg.
Good horses do have bad times and are sometimes beaten down in this market due to some quirks. The recent example is Nestle. It would bounce back and it might be gainful idea to start sipping into it. I sipped into it from 5650 levels last week.

Cyclical stocks too give you these opportunities.

Next criterion is some technical indicators for bounce back, when the risk reward is favourable and you can take a trade. For example Aban, has come down to 303 levels. It might be worthy of a bounce back to 320-330 levels in the short to medium term, though on long term it might have some more pain left still.

b. For medium or long term investment. What are the indicators that favour such an investment. None comes to mind.

I would rather stay away.

[ Hope I have not ruffled any feathers ]


Disclaimer: I am not a certified person and these are my personal views. It is advisable to consult your certified financial adviser before making any investment.

[drsingh]

Originally Posted by drk_411

b. For medium or long term investment. What are the indicators that favour such an investment. None comes to mind.

I would rather stay away.

[ Hope I have not ruffled any feathers ]

Disclaimer: I am not a certified person and these are my personal views. It is advisable to consult your certified financial adviser before making any investment.

There's been no ruffling of feathers. I welcome the discussion. If you want to discuss things that are unfit for discussion on the forum, feel free to PM me.

My interest in Prakash Industries and McNally bharat is for calculated speculation.

I'm willing to speculate 1 percent of my portfolio for a positional trade. I've been rewarded for this approach in case of Suzlon and Reliance communication. The idea is to get into a deep value stock on base of book value and exit as it reaches close to book value.

Comments /critique welcome.

If you are aware of better beaten down stocks ripe for speculation, let's discuss them.