[BaCkSeAtDrIVeR]

You are right about Honeywell. I really don't know their business, and keep away from what I've no clue about. I read somewhere about their auto interests, so presumed they to be an ancillary. I stand corrected.

[humyum]

I don't know about you guys, but I feel the bubble in the market will burst anytime with major corrections. December and January are lax months in the industries. Stocks are rallying beyond their fundamentals, some of them are FII driven and some of them operator driven. If you end up on the wrong side of the game, bhagwan bhi na bacha sake.

I would say, if you want to be a little bold, short nifty.

For long term safe bets, I would wait for LIC finance to correct to 380-390 levels and then buy it for a year. For short term bets, I would not touch anything right now. Today's rally was because of China cutting its interest rates, Rajan won't cut anything during this announcement on December 2nd and the banking shares will fall down, so will the market, buy that time.

[rki2007]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

The issue is will the market go higher or correct. There are always stocks which may go the other way.

Nobody knows, only think I can see is some softening of interest rates in expectation of a dropping inflation and a rate cut sooner than later.

What will be the influence of this rate cut on the market?

[sgiitk]

Originally Posted by rki2007

What will be the influence of this rate cut on the market?

Bond/debt fund yields will go up as the NAVs realign, but ultimately there will be a higher $ rate, which will have its own repercussions.

[rki2007]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Bond/debt fund yields will go up as the NAVs realign, but ultimately there will be a higher $ rate, which will have its own repercussions.

Thanks for your reply.

So as a result is it worthwhile to examine the investment opportunities in debt oriented funds and $ Currency trading.

[sabsubs]

Originally Posted by VindyWheels

Zen still looks good, but not sure if you will get to buy as its in upper circuit daily. Shilpa Medicare is still attractive. Mold-tek packaging looks good for next 5 years. Shriram City Union Finance still looks good and so does Repco Home Finance. I like Adi Finechem and PI industries too. Ajanta Pharma has ran up to 2400 now, but still looks good to deliver 25% CAGR for next 5 years. Kaveri seeds should also do well if you have a 3-5 year horizon.

There are some in the radar, need to do more work - Tastybites, IPCA labs, Hawkins, GIC Housing. Anybody interested in these do pitch in.

Cheers

Vinod

Hi VindyWheels, I would like to ask you a question on Igarashi Motors. The results for the Q2 have been disappointing and the stock price corrected and I still see some more correction in the price of Igarashi technically. Have you removed Igarashi from your watch-list? You did not mention anything about it in your post. Just curious to know about your opinion on the same. You had mentioned previously that Q2 and Q3 may be muted (You had given an update after attending Igarashi AGM). Please let me know if Igarashi can be still pursued.

Thanks,

Sabsubs

[VindyWheels]

Sabsubs,

Yes, I am following Igarashi as my clients still have it. Personally I have a more concentrated portfolio and had exited Igarashi at 310 or so. I felt the run-up from 150 to 300 captured most of the re-rating and going forward there may not be more than 25% CAGR kind of return whereas stocks like CCL and Zen offered much better return possibilities. But if you have a 15 stock portfolio you can still hold it. The main growth is expected in FY16 and I am impressed with the management and the business fundamentals. Valuation is also not expensive.

Allocation is quite tricky, you need to weigh the conviction and return potential of each investment. My top-4 will not see much selling apart from trimming allocation to comfortable levels. Igarashi was never in the top-4.

Here is a good website for small cap investors. This article on allocation is interesting.

http://microcapclub.com/2014/03/micr...sition-sizing/

Cheers

Vindy

[rki2007]

Originally Posted by humyum

I don't know about you guys, but I feel the bubble in the market will burst anytime with major corrections. December and January are lax months in the industries. Stocks are rallying beyond their fundamentals, some of them are FII driven and some of them operator driven. If you end up on the wrong side of the game, bhagwan bhi na bacha sake.

I would say, if you want to be a little bold, short nifty.

For long term safe bets, I would wait for LIC finance to correct to 380-390 levels and then buy it for a year. For short term bets, I would not touch anything right now. Today's rally was because of China cutting its interest rates, Rajan won't cut anything during this announcement on December 2nd and the banking shares will fall down, so will the market, buy that time.

I am also expecting a good amount of correction in the market during December.

I am not able to understand such a huge artificial boom for the bank nifty!!!

[manduvindupondu]

humyum and rki2007, I second your thoughts. Except for Nifty 50 and some select BS 200 (Business Standard 200), most other companies are still at 2009 March low levels . (Nifty was at 2350 at that time) .

This is a top heavy bubble with euphoria ruling the roost. It is not a holistic rise of shares. There are no fundamentals to back the rally.

I am waiting to buy RIL, SBI, Axis, Adani Enterprises, ONGC, LIC Housing Finance, IRB Infrastructure,L&T after a 15% correction in the market (Nifty 50)
Currently I am writing (selling) USDINR options. Anyone doing it?
Also, anyone trading commodities ? Silver at 36k per kg. Brent Crude at $80 per barrel.

[humyum]

Originally Posted by rki2007

I am also expecting a good amount of correction in the market during December.

I am not able to understand such a huge artificial boom for the bank nifty!!!

I think we are following the US market and hence the BOOM. Banks are no more viable buys at these prices. They have gone over their fundamentals and will definitely correct

Originally Posted by manduvindupondu

humyum and rki2007, I second your thoughts. Except for Nifty 50 and some select BS 200 (Business Standard 200), most other companies are still at 2009 March low levels . (Nifty was at 2350 at that time) .

This is a top heavy bubble with euphoria ruling the roost. It is not a holistic rise of shares. There are no fundamentals to back the rally.

I am waiting to buy RIL, SBI, Axis, Adani Enterprises, ONGC, LIC Housing Finance, IRB Infrastructure,L&T after a 15% correction in the market (Nifty 50)
Currently I am writing (selling) USDINR options. Anyone doing it?
Also, anyone trading commodities ? Silver at 36k per kg. Brent Crude at $80 per barrel.

Look at the correction today, healthy for the market it was with quite a few buying opportunities. LIC housing finance surprisingly held it ground till the end with a little downturn during the morning hours. I had shorted it at 421 some days back and finally managed to buy it back at 397. Now i am waiting for a downturn again at 395 levels to buy again with a stop loss of 390 and a target of around 415 to 420.

manduvindupondu, the stocks you have listed are excellent bets, specially RIL, ONGC, LIC housing and L&T. ONGC is a good bet after the divestment plan is over or if it falls again to 370 levels.

No, I am not doing USDINR, neither commodities. Actually I am not familiar with it, hence not doing it.

[PatienceWins]

Originally Posted by VindyWheels

Sabsubs,

Here is a good website for small cap investors. This article on allocation is interesting.

http://microcapclub.com/2014/03/micr...sition-sizing/

Cheers

Vindy

I discovered microcapclub recently and it has some very good articles.

I just listened to Astral conference call on acquisition of Resinova. The management does not seem to be very knowledgeable regarding the value addition of the acquisition. The explanation is at a very high level with over use of word "synergy" and they kept deferring the details to a later time. There is no mention of how they have funded the acquisition. What do you think about the acquisition from a shareholder point of view? Hope it does not become a diworsification.

http://www.researchbytes.com/webcast.aspx?WID=49100

[drsingh]

Originally Posted by rki2007

I am also expecting a good amount of correction in the market during December.

I am not able to understand such a huge artificial boom for the bank nifty!!!

Historical evidence shows that the markets don't correct in December.

My understanding is that people are expecting a rate cut early next year.

[PatienceWins]

Some very good quotes on investing:http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2014/11...rs-in-history/

My favourites:

“Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy only when others are fearful.”
- Warren Buffett
Source: 2004 shareholder letter

“If investing is entertaining, if you’re having fun, you’re probably not making any money. Good investing is boring.”
-George Soros
Source: Winning Investment Habits Of Warren Buffet And George Soros


“Smart investing doesn’t consist of buying good assets, but of buying assets well. This is a very, very important distinction that very, very few people understand. ”
- Howard Marks
Source: Advisor Perspectives

[S_U_N]

Originally Posted by sgiitk

Bond/debt fund yields will go up as the NAVs realign, but ultimately there will be a higher $ rate, which will have its own repercussions.

Does the falling oil price indicate that USD is going to be stronger against the Rupee?

I am already invested in US Opportunity Fund from Franklin and that will start rising immediately when the USD starts growing stronger.

[PatienceWins]

Originally Posted by S_U_N

Does the falling oil price indicate that USD is going to be stronger against the Rupee?

I am already invested in US Opportunity Fund from Franklin and that will start rising immediately when the USD starts growing stronger.

Why so? I think it is the other way around. Oil is traded in US dollars, so less demand for dollars when the oil price is low. The dependency of US on crude imports is less as US is one of the the largest producers of crude oil, along with shale gas.

The low price of crude is a strategy by OPEC to counter US shale gas producers.

http://firstbiz.firstpost.com/corpor...ow-110638.html