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Old 14th December 2017, 12:05   #781
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...These are people that have entered the industry in the last 5-10 years and are just starting their lives, many recently married, and some with EMI burdens...

... And retirement is decades away.
Wow...that felt as if you know me personally and totally pin-pointed my situation. 10 years into industry, just got married(1.5 years back) and have EMI burden Am sure there's a huge crowd of our age group in the industry currently who passed out around 2004-2007.

To be honest, this thought of what is the way forward does haunt us a lot these days. But lemme tell you none of us expect a retirement age like our parents(my dad retired at 61. TATA Steel allows employees 1 year extra), atleast in IT. In our case I don't think this rapidly changing industry will let us survive past 40-42, if I stick to technical stream.

And to counter that we honestly don't have any fallback plan as such as of now. All we can do is be a little cautious on investments for the rainy season ahead, try to finish up liabilities(loan EMIs) ASAP, and hope for the best.

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Old 14th December 2017, 18:44   #782
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Another reason why I am wary about the media guys who try to write something that they cannot understand.

What according to the article is the "real reason" and why should all engineers "code"?

Link
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Old 14th December 2017, 19:02   #783
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Its a known fact that the IT industry is seeing change unprecedented like no other in its history. Other than technical contributors, all other sections of IT management are expected to be under direct threat, interpreting a McKinsey report, carried by Bloomberg

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McKinsey & Co says almost half of the four million people working in India's IT services industry will become "irrelevant" in the next three to four years, reported Bloomberg this week.
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Old 14th December 2017, 19:54   #784
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....McKinsey & Co says almost half of the four million people working in India's IT services industry will become "irrelevant" in the next three to four years, reported Bloomberg this week.....
Look at it this way. A good chunk of IT staff has always been 'redundant' (and I don't mean necessary buffer staff), brought on and/or kept on for a variety of reasons, entirely different discussion and off-topic for this thread.

It's the redundancy that's under threat with automation and increased tool usage & efficiency. This isn't to say there aren't productive people or roles being eliminated, but business is always going to do what's most profitable at least cost.

Indian IT Industry, after years of gluttony, is finally hitting the gym with a vengeance.
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Old 15th December 2017, 06:39   #785
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In the gym though, the fat loss evaporates as sweat that can be showered away. What happens to the fat shed here?
@Soumen: If you are as self aware of your situation as you seem to be, you must also know that Hope is not a Strategy. The India of today offers many more value creation opportunities than that a few decades ago, and it might be good to look around for one that matches your taste if not outright passion. All cliched advice, but not to be dismissed for just being that I suggest.
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Old 15th December 2017, 07:41   #786
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I read about this incident at Verizon Data Services at Hyderabad, bouncers used to make an employee resign from job. Check the link,

http://www.thenewsminute.com/article...mployees-73148
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Old 15th December 2017, 09:13   #787
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From my experience with product development; you can expect to easily get 50 developers from these 10k (with online tests). And out of 50, 4 - 5 can be hired after interviews.
So you are filtering out 99.5% using online tests, and then interview only 0.5% of them, only to select 0.05% at the end. You have that luxury because you can choose from colleges all around the country. I get people mostly within the neighboring districts. If I follow your method, I will not be able to hire even one.

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We follow that kind of recruitment process even now, only wanting to hire the most studious of the lot, without even caring whether the person is the one fit for the job.
About 80% Indian IT services work doesn't need any skill beyond a 10th grade level. So this has worked for them. But most of this work will be now automated.

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If a person could brush up concepts in 2 weeks and we notice a marked improvement definitely he has tendency to do self study and work independently so worth hiring.
What we do is hire people based on their attitude and aptitude, and not knowledge. At least 80% of the folks we hire can barely code. We take them on a low salary. Then we make them learn programming over the next 3 months, mostly via self-learning and some guidance. Those who do well, get a hike and stay on. Those who do badly often leave by themselves, after realizing this is not the right career for them.

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In our case I don't think this rapidly changing industry will let us survive past 40-42, if I stick to technical stream.
Only folks in technical stream will manage to survive this. Managers are the real endangered species here.
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Old 15th December 2017, 09:54   #788
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I hope we are able to generate enough jobs elsewhere like manufacturing, etc.because 'Winter is coming'!! While Make In India is a step in the right direction, its still early days.
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Old 15th December 2017, 10:00   #789
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In the gym though, the fat loss evaporates as sweat that can be showered away. What happens to the fat shed here....
Poor analogy, I'd agree, but one would say letting the fat accumulate was a bad idea to begin with.

Bad attempt at lightening up a sombre discussion aside, this situation was always a matter of when, not if it will happen.

Companies and employees both got complacent with the status quo, and stopped paying serious attention to shifting trends and adjusting to them. I've seen colleagues leave, real good ones and critical contributors, and it may be my turn whenever the powers-that-be deem it necessary.

Much like a stock market boom based on shaky foundations, our IT industry needs a correction to its fundamentals. Will be painful, but then the pain was/is inevitable, and better to get hurt now when one is still young professionally and has a chance to recover and redirect. Someone in their 40s and a cushy job would be devastated now, but they should've seen this coming and hopefully built a buffer and alternatives. Some I know have, some will learn the hard way.

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Old 15th December 2017, 10:46   #790
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I hope we are able to generate enough jobs elsewhere like manufacturing, etc.because 'Winter is coming'!! While Make In India is a step in the right direction, its still early days.
Make in India is another smoke and mirrors slogan to hide the ground realities. India missed the manufacturing bus decades ago, by its poor infrastructure and expensive, low productivity workforce. The IT industry succeeded because its downstream delivery chain did not need roads/ports etc., and labour unions had no role to play. Even the power issue was handled via DG sets or captive power plants that did not add enough cost to render IT services uncompetitive because of huge wage differences in place. In manufacturing, the absence of cheap and reliable grid power can mean the difference between profit and loss if captive power is to be used. And manufactured products still cannot be uploaded for export.

And now all the impacts of globalisation on developed countries means that they are not going to come running to make in India, except where that is needed to address Indian markets, and only to the extent this is needed. The smartphone industry is a classic example.

The IT problem is just one aspect of the job creation challenge India faces, that no one is coming to grips with while raising/discussing a hundred other imaginary bogeys of all kinds that divert everyones attention away from the unemployment cataclysm we are rushing towards. That coupled with breakdown in public infrastructure everywhere. Throw in environment damage issues including water scarcity, and it completes the picture for a perfect storm.

Winter is definitely coming.
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Old 15th December 2017, 12:35   #791
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I've been expecting the 'demise' of the Indian IT Industry for a long time now, but somehow it seems to survive and grow. Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan. After 15 years in this industry, across companies big and small, at startup-types and behemoth MNCs, I'm amazed myself that this state of affairs, that most posts in this thread have already highlighted and I have seen for myself, can continue. Ridiculous salaries, absolute tools at director-level posts, managers who do nothing but e-mail, IT SEZs running on banks of diesel gen sets, pathetic quality, coders who can't code, testers who can't test, etc. etc. But despite all the naysayers, the show goes on. Obviously I'm missing something here.

Last edited by am1m : 15th December 2017 at 12:39.
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Old 15th December 2017, 13:14   #792
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But despite all the naysayers, the show goes on. Obviously I'm missing something here.
Like you I have been a part of this great circus for the past decade and I have been a part of companies across the spectrum - startups, medium size, large mnc, captive development centers and what not.

The show does go on I think because more than 90% of the work done over here is managing an already established software - more of a maintenance work. This is not to turn this thread into a 'we cannot produce quality software' one but I have even seen a large company do the same 'project' twice and bill the customer for it. We do everything in our own combination of 'chalta hai' and 'jugaad' techniques which we seem to have perfected over decades.

Having worked abroad too in a team of developers from four different European countries, their work ethics and ability to segregate work and personal life amazes me. Even in product companies, the major chunk of work is done by the onsite team and the rest filters down to India.

So I think it is due to this reason that the show really goes on. Even if it is very profitable to get it done from India, it is mostly bug fixing, a small enhancement here and there and then positioning it as something very big that keeps the ball rolling. Couple this with the education system that we have and we are producing IT slaves year on year.

Sorry for the pessimistic post but #itiswhatitis
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Old 15th December 2017, 13:24   #793
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Ridiculous salaries, absolute tools at director-level posts, managers who do nothing but e-mail, IT SEZs running on banks of diesel gen sets, pathetic quality, coders who can't code, testers who can't test, etc. etc. But despite all the naysayers, the show goes on. Obviously, I'm missing something here.
I completely agree with your views, the new trend is Managers do not find time to reply to emails, block Calendars for the full day, prefer offline communication. There is a same culture from the highest position to the lowest in Upper management. Everything is shown green in presentations, they expect some FAQ's stuff before going to meetings. The two best questions I came across as a Mechanical Engineer were
  • "Why Pro-E cannot be used instead of AutoCAD for creating 2D drawings?"
  • "Should Cost and BOM cost is same"
Somehow I am finding right people in the wrong position more these days,
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Old 15th December 2017, 14:42   #794
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I've been expecting the 'demise' of the Indian IT Industry for a long time now, but somehow it seems to survive and grow. Don't get me wrong, I'm no fan. After 15 years in this industry, across companies big and small, at startup-types and behemoth MNCs, I'm amazed myself that this state of affairs, that most posts in this thread have already highlighted and I have seen for myself, can continue. Ridiculous salaries, absolute tools at director-level posts, managers who do nothing but e-mail, IT SEZs running on banks of diesel gen sets, pathetic quality, coders who can't code, testers who can't test, etc. etc. But despite all the naysayers, the show goes on. Obviously I'm missing something here.
Industry is surviving purely because of cost arbitrage. In short cheap labour is what makes Indian IT 'tick'. The moment a cheaper location comes up that can offer good communication capability (say Philippines), our days will be numbered.

I completely agree that there is huge amount of flab in medium levels (typical managers or leads) and the level of skills is strictly average.
There is a dangerous precedence set by these IT Services companies to offer lead position to anyone who is 4-5 years old. So, the moment you make anyone a "lead", he stops coding thereby making him losing touch with his core competency. We don't seem to take pride in being technically involved and only want to be "Lead" or "Manager". Bulk of the work is carried out by the graduates and 1-3 year experienced programmers. As soon as these people are 4-5 years old, willingly or unwillingly, they get or ask for a lead role! And the story continues.
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Old 15th December 2017, 14:49   #795
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Industry is surviving purely because of cost arbitrage. In short cheap labour is what makes Indian IT 'tick'. The moment a cheaper location comes up that can offer good communication capability (say Philippines), our days will be numbered.
Yes, very true. My query was how do we manage to hold on to this cost advantage for so long? Costs must be rising exponentially each year here. I know for a fact that starting salaries have shot up across all roles. What I observe is that we still retain a significant cost advantage despite all that.

About the rise of an alternate outsourcing destination with good communication capabilities, again I've been hearing that for the past 10 years at least. It was China, Philippines, Sri Lanka, Slovakia (or Slovenia, I forget which ). Puzzling. At least to me.
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