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In the India v England match, I feel England will dismiss India with a max of around 180 to chase in some 75-80 overs. India will have to bowl exceedingly well to defend that. It's advantage England IMO

India were in a similar position in the last match needing 150 to win but the rain spoilt it.

Right now it's like 50 England, 30 India and 20% chance for draw. It's just on Pant, if he can make another 50 something then India has a chance to make a game of this but last 4 including Ishant can't expect much from them.

Kohli must be cursing himself for not playing Ashwin, his lower order runs and the way Moeen and Root were bowling clearly shows how valuable he could have been now.

UPDATE-
West Indies pull off a superb chase with only a wicket to spare. A great win for the carribbeans, they go 1-0 up in the 2-match test series.

At Lords, another 40-50 runs from Rishabh Pant and Co. should be enough to make England sweat. While Jadeja's bowling will be crucial, I am betting big on 'the second innings' Shami to dent the English top order.

We must not forget that England's Batting is highly dependent on Root. Get him out cheaply and then even 150 is good enough to defend.

Kohli must be hitting himself for not including Ashwin. He could have added few more partnerships at lower order. Looking at how Ali & Root are bowling, Ashwin would have been lethal.

If all 4 wickets go down in the first hour, then its a lost cause. Pant and co needs to bat at least 20 overs today for even a draw, let alone winning. Agree with England's dependence on Root. Except him, everybody is still playing with a limited over instinct. It's surprising how Butler and Bairstow who can demolish any team in limited over cricket become bunnies in test cricket.

Our top 5 still have a long way to go in tests. All of them including Pujara seem to be trying to play every ball. Rohit and Rahul had success in the first innings because they left so many balls. Trying to play the ball even for defending increases the chance of getting a knick. The greats like Kallis and Dravid did not become unbreakable by playing every ball. They were masters of leaving the ball alone. Dravid never used to even try to play anything in the 5th stump line. That discipline is missing from India's top order. Even Pujara. He tries to defend balls even at the 5th or 6th stump. An in-form Dravid would have left them all day without any regrets. That's why he was such a frustrating experience to the fast bowlers. The only guy who made a joke of that strategy was McGrath. He knew the thin corridor where Dravid would get confused about leaving or playing.

I hope India can bat (a major portion of) the first session and push for a draw.

Perhaps time to pick bowlers based on their primary (and not secondary) skill? Nothing against Jadeja, but Ashwin has definitely improved his bowling outside the subcontinent in the past few years should be given a go in the next test.

Also, if I were Kohli, I'd rest Bumrah for the next game. :)

I read a nice article(can’t remember where) that Ashwin is sitting out basically because our middle order is not clicking and he’s paying the price for it.

Boom boom is struggling. Shami is all over the place. And if Root is batting, it almost feels like that anyone can bat, it’s so easy for him.

Hopefully Bumrah and Shami find their touch in the second innings, get Root early and we have a chance. Else, it’s curtains.

The other thing which goes against Ashwin is the lack of left handers in the England top order. Jadeja even if he is second best overall is better to exploit the rough against right handers.

But his bowling has been a bit ordinary off late. Offers control but not much in terms of attack.

It is true actually. Though Kohli said that the template for team composition for this series is just 1 spinner, on tracks like this where we may benefit from the additional spinner, especially a thinking bowler like Ashwin, our shaky middle order makes it almost impossible to risk the selection by dropping a batsman.

Just saw the highlights for yesterday.

Rohit played an absolutely daft shot knowing fully well the trap was set. This isn't T20 to play such shots. Very disappointed.

Kohli again poking at balls outside off stump, it's now a mental and technique issue both.

Pujara was superb in holding his end and got out to a ball which bounced from nowhere and was literally unplayable.

Rahane was good until he played a ball which was best left alone.

Jaddu got a peach. He is our best bat in last 2 years so can't blame him for a low score. That ball showed how good Ashwin would have been here and selection blunder of leaving the best off spinner in the world out.

Everything is on Pant now. He again has to play a street smart innings with the tail which is fragile like anything. Just need another 50 runs and we will be in the match big time.

When he got out to the same shot in the first test, he was asked about it in the press conference.

His response = To the same ball, I will play the same shot again. I succeed more often than not, so I will play the percentages.

Guess this approach won't work. The English are too smart, and other teams will watch this closely.

My worry actually came true. Even if ChePu and Jinx had played with 1.5 RR more than what they did, we would have pushed the English Team a bit behind. Now we entirely depend on Pant to play out minimum 25 overs with the Tail and score 60 runs by himself and some 40 combined by Ishant, Bhumrah & Shami.

The latter is going to be difficult even though Ishant & Bhumrah have improved their batting by some percentage.

On a lighter note:

I know what he said. That's why I said it's not T20 you need to play the shots you love to play knowing fully well there is a trap set and it can get you out.

He said same thing in Australia when he got out to Lyon at long on. This statement of his is absolutely stupid. Sachin had the best cover drive in the business. He was getting out again and again on cover drive in Australia and he decided he won't play the drive at all in Sydney test and managed to score a double hundred. This is how test cricket is played.

Rohit is a senior and he must realise to be a great test player you need to contain your game and play situations.

I don't agree. Pujara played his natural game. This is how he plays and has always played. He tried to be more attacking and kept failing so he was back to how he knows to play. If Pujara and Rahane in playing at faster rate would have lost their wickets early England would be chasing 100 runs. Now atleast there is a chance of a win and draw both.

Look at Pakistan yesterday. They made 168 chase for Windies so tough they won by just 1 wicket. Batting last on a 5 day pitch is really tough and even 170+ is tough to chase.

Btw you are over expecting. 100 runs from these last 4 wickets against a new ball and Anderson is almost impossible though we would love to have it:D

I feel sorry for the position Pant is in, I mean every time we can't depend on him to do some magic with tailenders and be successful. The fact that he has delivered most often than not in the recent past increases the belief and expectations!

We need to fix the root cause - the shaky middle order, this is simply putting a lot of pressure on the lower order, especially the bowlers who have a lot to do as it is. Even if we don't have enough runs to win (I wish the bowlers get at least close to 200 to defend), this may end up a close game number wise or a thriller even, but realistically I think our chances of winning are very less. Will be happy if proved wrong today.

*Gavaskar said he's looking at India getting a total of 210 which will leave them with a lead of 183, a lucky number for India at Lord's. I wish we get a lead of 183 or even 200, but surely looks difficult.

Somehow Pant & Co. should eek out another 50 runs & set England a target of 200 in 2 & a bit session. Run scoring won't be that easy & England will be in two minds whether to go all out for the target or settle for a draw, therein lies India's chance! Game would have been over yesterday itself if not for Pujara & Rahane's resilience.:thumbs up