[ACM]

Superb analysis. 5 star rated.

1) Feel that thanks to RE 650 all this will change dramatically in 2019

2) Guys buying bikes upto 10L even would still consider and accept or reject the RE 650. The Triumph modern classics, and all brand 650 twins are on notice.

3) Large ADVs, 1000cc plus bikes, large cruisers and bikes above say 13L are safe for now as the market for them should continue to grow or fall depending on overall economy feel good factors.

4) Though not all superbikes by our classification a separate analysis of all bikes from 2.5L to 6L ex-showroom including the duke 390, ninja 300, BMWs 3xx upto street 750 is requested for JFM 2019. It will be super interesting.

5) Harleys and Kawas in their budget range would have to be more price / feature competitive in 2019

6) ADVs running out of steam.

[Red Liner]

Originally Posted by ACM

Superb analysis. 5 star rated.

1) Feel that thanks to RE 650 all this will change dramatically in 2019

2) Guys buying bikes upto 10L even would still consider and accept or reject the RE 650. The Triumph modern classics, and all brand 650 twins are on notice.



6) ADVs running out of steam.

The thing is unless RE or KTM (India) give atleast 95% of the part quality/reliability offered by the Japs, it might still be a tough ask from the informed buyer. I think informed buyers who value staying on the road more than staying in the garage will opt for a Jap machine come what may. So the RE 650 will need a few years to prove itself.

I have read many instances of people moving from the KTM or the RE to a Kawasaki, and they swear right up that they will never go back after experiencing the japs. That said, the regular office commute market (which is where the volumes are) will veer towards these cheaper 650's in a big way.

I think ADV's have just started kicking off in the market (India and globally). It is going to be the golden age of ADV's in India in the next few years thanks to the Vlogger/Gopro ruckus on Youtube.

If any of the Japs bring in lower capacity twin's/singles in the ADV guise at a similar price point at a lower weight, you can kiss RE good bye.

[ku69rd]

Originally Posted by Red Liner

If any of the Japs bring in lower capacity twin's/singles in the ADV guise at a similar price point at a lower weight, you can kiss RE good bye.

The Kawasaki KLR650 will be a sure shot success story, but I believe they are not keen to release since they believe the Indian Market is yet to mature.

For a typical Indian, foreign bikes means Dhoom Dhoom types.

This does give the RE/Local Guys lot of time to create that disruption

[Red Liner]

Originally Posted by ku69rd

The Kawasaki KLR650 will be a sure shot success story, but I believe they are not keen to release since they believe the Indian Market is yet to mature.

For a typical Indian, foreign bikes means Dhoom Dhoom types.

This does give the RE/Local Guys lot of time to create that disruption

Agree with you.

KLR 650 is globally out of production and is not sold any more (emission norms).

I don't mind a KTM 690 enduro.

[ashwinprakas]

Originally Posted by ku69rd

The Kawasaki KLR650 will be a sure shot success story, but I believe they are not keen to release since they believe the Indian Market is yet to mature.

Shucks! I was under the assumption that since the KLR would be phased out abroad due to emission norms, they'd be dumping it in the Asian markets.

For once a hand down didn't seem that bad.

[ACM]

Originally Posted by Red Liner

The thing is unless RE or KTM (India) give atleast 95% of the part quality/reliability offered by the Japs, it might still be a tough ask from the informed buyer...

But isn't the quality issue pertaining to RE prior to 650 twins days?

Didn't Triumph modern classics too have issues on a level almost similar to RE 650 twins?

Isn't the KTM brand supposed to be fairly desirable and reliable globally. (Though there were some issues in the initial releases in India). In fact isn't a KTM 650 ADV expected to take the fight to the Japs.

Do the Japs have a modern classic option in India? Unless we are referring to Vulcan S.

While it is hard to know exact numbers of ADVs sold in India in last 6 months the ADV dispatches seem to have tapered down after growing very fast in the previous two years.

Get a feeling that height of ADVs is a major negative to sale of such bikes in India inspite of them being ideal for Indian conditions. Maybe newer 300 -400 cc ADVs may fare better.

[ethanhunt123]

Originally Posted by ACM

Guys buying bikes upto 10L even would still consider and accept or reject the RE 650. The Triumph modern classics, and all brand 650 twins are on notice.

Not so sure about the first point - i dont see a Z900/CBR650/GSX 750/Monster guy even thinking about buying an RE650. Same is probably true for Ninja 650 buyer as well. RE as a brand doesnt hold a candle to these brands and the bike is pretty basic tech.

RE650 twins will pull most buyers from R3/D390/Dominar kind of buyers - and maybe HD750 twins / Bonnie T100 buyers.

[Red Liner]

Originally Posted by ACM

But isn't the quality issue pertaining to RE prior to 650 twins days?

Didn't Triumph modern classics too have issues on a level almost similar to RE 650 twins?

Isn't the KTM brand supposed to be fairly desirable and reliable globally. (Though there were some issues in the initial releases in India). In fact isn't a KTM 650 ADV expected to take the fight to the Japs.

Do the Japs have a modern classic option in India? Unless we are referring to Vulcan S.

While it is hard to know exact numbers of ADVs sold in India in last 6 months the ADV dispatches seem to have tapered down after growing very fast in the previous two years.

Get a feeling that height of ADVs is a major negative to sale of such bikes in India inspite of them being ideal for Indian conditions. Maybe newer 300 -400 cc ADVs may fare better.

1. 650 twin days? The damn bike has been here like 2 months man. This is vs a 650 parallel twin from kawasaki that has been around more than a few decades globally.

2. I have not studied triumphs history, can't answer that.

3. Ktm does have patchy reliability even globally. They are not at the same level of the jap advs. Desirable yes. Middle weight adv enduro segment only has the BMW at the moment. Now follows the 790 adv. Next is the yamaha t7 tenere. Kawasaki has nothing, and nor does Honda apart from the twin. As of now, most people who have been through a few adv bikes, are waiting for the yammie to do a price announcement.

Now about ktm in india, less said the better. Most mechanics i speak to say parts quality is absolute rubbish. They say TVS is far far better.

If you give me a choice between a jap and a ktm adv, i will always choose a jap all things being equal. The issue is, do we have any choice here?

4. Yes height is a dampener. Wish low seat options come through. But honestly, i think once you figure the bike out and drop it a few times, height is something you can deal with.

[ACM]

Originally Posted by Red Liner

4. Yes height is a dampener. Wish low seat options come through. But honestly, i think once you figure the bike out and drop it a few times, height is something you can deal with.

Recently Kawasaki dropped prices of Ninja 300 spares 10 fold.

Presently one can't really afford to drop a Kawasaki with any kind of faring, the costs are exorbitant and hugely overpriced even for the quality. (As proven by them themselves dropping prices big time).

That is a side note and of course time will tell

1) If RE 650 twin sales rise (very expected scenario) and that of other pre-existing 650 twins are sustained over next 6 months or a year, the public does value and perceive the quality of present 650 and 750 cc models in the market.

2) If RE 650 sales rise but that of existing options drop significantly then people who earlier paid say 6-9L for bikes did so only due to absence of options but did not value the vehicles themselves to be worth what they paid for them or the brand.

Just hypotheses both these. Let's see time would tell, Will revist.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by ACM

4) Though not all superbikes by our classification a separate analysis of all bikes from 2.5L to 6L ex-showroom including the duke 390, ninja 300, BMWs 3xx upto street 750 is requested for JFM 2019. It will be super interesting.

Sorry I didn't understand this suggestion properly. I include 300 sports, 300 nakeds in every month analysis as separate graphs to avoid clutter. Would you like to see them all together in a single graph?

PS: No monthly data available for BMW.

Originally Posted by ACM

Recently Kawasaki dropped prices of Ninja 300 spares 10 fold.

Not that I disagree with you (that the 650 twins will have a big impact on the market) - but factually, this happened before the launch of the 650 twins - along with the launch of the localized new 300. It only became big news however, when Anzen Kawasaki published it online last month.

[ACM]

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

Sorry I didn't understand this suggestion properly. I include 300 sports, 300 nakeds in every month analysis as separate graphs to avoid clutter. Would you like to see them all together in a single graph?

PS: No monthly data available for BMW.

Not that I disagree with you (that the 650 twins will have a big impact on the market) - but factually, this happened before the launch of the 650 twins - along with the launch of the localized new 300.

No, the point about the 300 was that though the price of the full bike itself didn't fall much the price of service spares and body panels had a very dramatic drop to what they should have been in the first place. But the rest of the range continues with the expensive spares rate. This was not in relation to 650 twins but to the suggested idea of learning by dropping the versys a few times, which is not an affordable option considering the present cost of its fairing etc.

I am not suggesting the 300s being compiled together rather bikes in 2.5L (RE 650) (start) to 6.5L (Street Rod 750) (End) to be studied together. I feel a person who can pay about 3.35L on road can also manage about 7L on road. This covers most 300 - 750cc bikes but excludes versys and some others that are even more pricey.

Gain would be to see buying preference from brand, bike type (ADV vs cruiser vs modern classic) and also perceived value (650 cc RE vs 300 cc Ninja etc.) Lots of conclusions on buying trends could be drawn. Of course BMW presence too is required.

[roy_libran]

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

Sorry I didn't understand this suggestion properly. I include 300 sports, 300 nakeds in every month analysis as separate graphs to avoid clutter. Would you like to see them all together in a single graph?

Originally Posted by ACM

I am not suggesting the 300s being compiled together rather bikes in 2.5L (RE 650) (start) to 6.5L (Street Rod 750) (End) to be studied together.

I also echo the same thought. The inclusion of RE 650 twins into this comparison actually skews the %ages for everyone, whereas they very clearly don't have either the performance or the pricing to go against the competition in those stats.
The RE650's, both in pricing and performance terms, compete more with the 300-400cc segment which includes the RR, KTM's, N300, N400, R3, amongst others, and still lags a few of those smaller bikes on both fronts. Makes absolutely no sense clubbing these RE's with even higher performance bikes. This argument even extends to the HD Street 750's, but to a lesser extent.
The inclusion of these lower-end bikes are making the Superbike Market look way bigger than it actually is right now.

[ethanhunt123]

Originally Posted by ACM

No, the point about the 300 was that though the price of the full bike itself didn't fall much the price of service spares and body panels had a very dramatic drop to what they should have been in the first place. But the rest of the range continues with the expensive spares rate.

Well the Kawasaki 300 did see a big drop in price after localisation - which is also probably the reason why spares saw a big drop in prices.

It doesnt carry forward to other bikes in Kawasaki range as their spare parts are not localised in India but imported.

[The_Mad_Hatter]

Originally Posted by ethanhunt123

Not so sure about the first point - i dont see a Z900/CBR650/GSX 750/Monster guy even thinking about buying an RE650.

I'm a Z900 guy and I have booked an Interceptor 650, mostly as a secondary vehicle. I don't feel comfortable using the Z900 everyday in the city (mostly because I don't want to park it unattended for long), so the RE would fulfill that purpose. I'd split highway time with them more or less evenly.

Originally Posted by noo.b

The design language is common i agree but the z 900 is no looker either, i suppose it sells primarily due to its price point and the fact that its an inline 4.

A testament to that is so many new z900s up for sale for not being loud enough

That is subjective, but I haven't really heard many people complain about the looks of a Z900. That is one of the things I considered when picking it up; it looks pretty good to me.

To sell a bike because it isn't loud enough has to be one of the dumbest possible reasons I've heard. A full-system header + slip-on set will make the Z900 loud as hell, and still wind up costing less than a Street Triple.

[ethanhunt123]

Originally Posted by The_Mad_Hatter

I'm a Z900 guy and I have booked an Interceptor 650, mostly as a secondary vehicle. I don't feel comfortable using the Z900 everyday in the city (mostly because I don't want to park it unattended for long), so the RE would fulfill that purpose. I'd split highway time with them more or less evenly.

You made my point - you booked the Interceptor 650 as a SECONDARY bike. Would you replace your Z900 with the RE twins ?