[docsr]

Hi,
There has been plenty of activity, at least in the press, about how India is leapfrogging into the Electric Vehicle (EV) world - much like the way we leapfrogged into mobile telephony. All major players are putting out their plans for the proposed all EV India by 2030. Many models- EVs and Hybrids, are expected to begin entering market as early as 2020.

My present ride (a Skoda Octavia from 2014) is entering its 5th year and I was exploring options for a change in the not too distant future. Was looking for a soft roader SUV/entry level Lux sedan.

Should I wait another year or so in the anticipation of arrival of EV or Hybrids? What will happen to resale value for the petrols/diesels (even though my current ride is unlikely to cause a stampede in the used car market )?

Would really like to know what you guys think?

[V.Narayan]

The experts are better positioned to answer but I will add my two annas worth. In the next 2 years we could see a wider range of EVs or Plug-In Hybrids or simple hybrids enter the Indian market. It is the future despite what sceptics may opine. A new ICE car bought today and sold say 8 years hence will face a discount considering that in 2026 there may be a clear law stating end of production/registration dates for ICE cars. I for one have put my money where my mouth is by purchasing a hybrid 10 months ago and as and when our current ICE cars come up for a change over the next 5 years one by one they will be replaced with EVs or Plug-In Hybrids. I have installed two 15 amp points next to my basement parking at home and will do so at office as and when needed. My advice - wait and move to the next generation.

[narayans80]

Originally Posted by docsr

My present ride (a Skoda Octavia from 2014) is entering its 5th year and I was exploring options for a change in the not too distant future. Should I wait another year or so in the anticipation of arrival of EV or Hybrids?

Hybrids are slowly being put out of reach, 'thanks' to the taxation. So EVs is where auto investments will be.

My realistic expectation is atleast 2025 for a EV where I would put big money on.

1. If I were you (am a keeper), I'd keep the Octy till it falls apart (or till FC) Skodas aren't resale champions anyway. Get the EV whenever it comes in the 2020s.

2. If you are looking to change, change now and keep that car until a suitable EV comes into picture.

[deep_bang]

So, there is way too much confusion on EVs. Niti Aayog thinks that electric vehicles are not all that viable. So, with all that confusion, i think the whole space needs atleast 5 more years to even come up with reliable products+infrastructure.

Even if they do come up, they are going to be pricey. So i dont think the older cars will suddenly lose value. Perhaps, what would have been a 40% depreciation may become a 50% depreciation. But not a whole lot less as we anyway have inflationary costs pushing up prices in the next few years. So, if you want to buy a new one, i suggest to go ahead and buy one, but be aware that the depreciation may be slightly more.

Another option if your intent is to go for a SUV is to buy a used SUV. You would get a much higher priced vehicle, and someone else has taken a big depreciation already - and so even if the cost depreciates further, its not too big load on your pocket and you get to enjoy a SUV.

[vibbs]

Here is what I feel.

EVs will be in. But it will be at least 2025 till we see some really viable options. If we are talking about flexibility that comes with charging stations all across the nation to the level of penetration that fuel bunks have today, this may be well beyond 2030.

You mentioned your car is of 2014 vintage. I believe that if you intend to keep the new car as well for this long, there is no harm in going for the conventional fuels at this point. You can drive it around till 2022-2023 ( I believe the dust will settle by then on what future holds) and shift technology if it really seems viable. There will be buyers for conventional cars then, even though the resale may take slight hit.

I actually believe this is the right time for upgrade, if one wants that final tryst with fossil fuels before the market shifts. You have decent amount of time to enjoy the new car and there will be reasonable resale as well when you sell off 5 years from now!

[libranof1987]

What is your budget? You've mentioned you are looking for a soft roader/entry level luxury sedan; there's no true hybrid or EV in this segment at the moment. The Camry hybrid is 40 lakhs+.

How soon we'll have them in mass production, I doubt anyone can predict. A lot depends on our Govt.'s policies.

It may be pragmatic to buy a fossil fuel powered car now for the next couple of years and then get a hybrid/EV worthy of that tag. By then, improved iterations should be available in the market.

[Bhatman510]

Depending on your commute to work, you can try to get an EV.

But if you dont know where your charging stations your constraining yourself to your house and possibly your work (if your work allows charging EVs). With Tesla delaying its Indian deployment and all major manufacturers indicating there going EV, theres going to be a big rush and demand for EVs in India.

A PHEV (Plug In Hybrid EV) might be viable, but expensive.

[Thermodynamics]

May be there is no need to panic. The disruption may to take some time, it requires humongous infrastructure development.

Probably we can set some milestones and act accordingly
1. Government policy preference for EVs: current state - very good but policies can change tomorrow.
2. Fulfillment of domestic and industrial electrical demand: i.e. zero power outage. current state - pathetic, we are struggling to cope up with demand.
3. New power plants: current state - insufficient. we current produce about 330 GW mostly from coal. 1000 GW or 1 TW mark can be considered a milestone.
4. Growth of infrastructure for EVs: current state - zero, every thing has to be established from scratch.
5. Success stories: successful implementation in some countries, may be some small European country or small but prosperous Asian regions such as Singapore and Honk Kong.
6. Successful implementation in an Indian city or State: Perhaps in Delhi

Unless these developments happen, I think IC engines have life to live.

[Rahul Rao]

Originally Posted by docsr

Hi,
There has been plenty of activity, at least in the press, about how India is leapfrogging into the Electric Vehicle (EV) world - much like the way we leapfrogged into mobile telephony. All major players are putting out their plans for the proposed all EV India by 2030. Many models- EVs and Hybrids, are expected to begin entering market as early as 2020.

How much has your car run, and how is the maintenance situation. If there is no issue demanding an urgent change, I would suggest that you wait a year.
Resale for a 4 yr old and a 5 yr old does'nt defer by much. Till then you will see more EV's on roads, and range between recharge will also have improved further.
I don't see Electric cars become mainstreem for at least another 5 to 7 years, so your next car should be your last IC engined one. In the meanwhile if you are looking for a smaller second car, the Mahindra E20, or Tigor Electric, or something new that comes up will work for your in city usage, and a bigger IC engined car can be used intercity.

Rahul

[IshaanIan]

From what I can make out, the government still has not taken any steps to fulfill its 2030 EV promise. Me personally, I would buy a petrol manual and drive the hell out of it until we have depleted all our fossil fuels or they become illegal. That said, clearly you are approaching this from a different angle in which case I'd say enjoy your Octavia for a few more years until Tesla enters our market then buy a Model 3 or Model S/X whichever suits your budget by then.

[lamborghini]

Honestly, it all depends on your timelines.

As we've seen, due to taxation and other reasons - EVs and Hybrids are considerably more expensive. If you are someone who will change his car in 5 years - may as well enjoy a nice ICE vehicle instead of going the hybrid / EV route - as once the technology becomes mass market, EV vehicles will hopefully become more affordable.

At the moment - the only upgrade from the Octavia in the Hybrid / EV avatar is the Camry & Accord both of which are ridiculously priced. None of the Germans have any EV Vehicles launched - and when they do, it'll be definitely priced on the premium (initially at least) compared to the petrol/diesel option.

Options are going to increase going forward, but the question is for someone who will keep their car for 5 years - is it worth investing in a better car, or better technology knowing full well in 5-6 years when you're in the market for a new car - there will be a better car with better technology then.

[AutoSphere]

Originally Posted by Rahul Rao

How much has your car run, and how is the maintenance situation. If there is no issue demanding an urgent change...

I don't see Electric cars become mainstreem for at least another 5 to 7 years, so your next car should be your last IC engined one. In the meanwhile if you are looking for a smaller second car, the Mahindra E20, or Tigor Electric, or something new that comes up will work for your in city usage, and a bigger IC engined car can be used intercity.

Rahul

+1 and I agree

A lot would also depend on the mix of city commuting and long-distance driving. I do not see a concrete plan for the EV cars/infrastructure roll-out and it will be more than 5 years before we get a clarity. That being the case, there is no harm in considering an ICE vehicle and one of the options for SUV could be the much-awaited Jimny (which is not an upgrade from your current drive)

[docsr]

Thanks guys for all your inputs. The general consensus seems that EVs are unlikely to become common place/suitable for general use in the next 5-6 years. I had not factored in the infrastructure requirements and I suppose it is logical that all this will take time. Other than the Mahindra EVs, the established models such as the Prius, Accord or Camry are all still niche products and significantly overpriced. Spending 40L + will not get much more car than the Octy.
The suggestion to go down the path of one more "nice" ICE vehicle sounds very very tempting. Will need to start working to convince the home minister.

Fortunately, my daily commute is not much-less than 4 km!. The car is primarily for weekend and outstation drives. The smaller Polo GT does in-city duties.

I was considering the Kodiaq. Alternatively, a mid spec X1.

[2000rpm]

Buy a new car. Dont wait for the electric revolution to start. The way Indian government is handling it, it will take at least 5 years to get consensus between all the relevant stakeholders i.e. OEMs, OESs, regulatory bodies, etc.

[Sunney]

Why should I go for a conventional, polluting fossil-fueled Car, when affordable clean Electric ones are available in couple of years ?

Well, my Linea is 8 year old, showing age, was thinking of a new one. Then I read that Electric-fueled cars are a reality, though premium segment alone now, but by 2020 many brands are coming with affordable, fairly long Kms. at single recharge. And Charging Stations will mushroom, at every nook and corner like ATMs in 2 year time.

Million dollar questions is "Isn't it foolish buying a fossil-fueled one NOW, when in 2 years many affordable models, and in 3 years cheaper models, mostly 10 lakhs range will be available ? "

Within 2 years, it will be tough to find a buyer for my 2 year 'new' fossil-fueled Car !!

If I spent some money to refurbish and maintain the Linea for 2 more years, I can rid it for an Electric one!

Well, only problem is I may not fetch any money for my Linea. Who will buy an old fossil burner, when great clean ones available?

What do you all think?