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Tesla delivered record number of cars during 1st quarter 2017: 25,000 clap:
Compared to the same quarter 2016, this represents 69% growth. In Q1 2016 Tesla sold 14,820 cars.
Total: 25,000
Model S: 13,450
Model X: 11,550
In Q1, Tesla produced 25,418 cars which also a new quarterly record for Tesla.
Source: Tesla PR
Today NDTV site published a report based on study by Stanford University economist, Tony Seba that concludes "Petrol And Diesel Cars Will Vanish In 8 Years".
http://auto.ndtv.com/news/petrol-and...-lateststories
According to Seba "We are on the cusp of one of the fastest, deepest, most consequential disruptions of transportation in history. Internal combustion engine vehicles will enter a vicious cycle of increasing costs. What the cost curve says is that by 2025 all new vehicles will be electric, all new buses, all new cars, all new tractors, all new vans, anything that moves on wheels will be electric, globally."
From the report "It's simple to explain how quick this will happen with the example of Digital cameras. With the advent of digital cameras, the ones working on the film were phased out almost immediately. It was swift and brutal and we expect something similar to happen to cars."
If this is true than we are at a very crucial transition stage that is both challenging and promising.
Samdarshi
Well such estimates are invariably optimistic. A lot may also depend on the Infrastrucure we develop. Remember 400-500km a day is not uncommon in India, and AC is almost mandatory. So let us say, we need one recharge on the way. We need a charging station, as well as, ideally, some decent food and toilet facility. Once can take it the the infra will first come up on the arterial highways. We have both the Lucknow-Agra E'way and then the Yamuna E'way as we try and go to Delhi. A good test case!
India's electric grid infrastructure is nothing to write about. distribution lines are overloaded. Recently read a report that the average transformer lifetime is ~5 years in India compared to ~20years in other countries. This is the first and foremost thing that needs to be fixed before we can think about electric cars.
Even in countries like Germany which has best grid/gas infrastructure moving to all electric cars by 2025 (current target) is challenging.
I saw in todays paper, that most issues with Tesla seem to have been sorted out. So maybe there is still hope.
Quote:
Originally Posted by samdarshi.pali
(Post 4202520)
Today NDTV site published a report based on study by Stanford University economist, Tony Seba that concludes "Petrol And Diesel Cars Will Vanish In 8 Years".
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Tony Seba has been saying this for over couple of years now. In fact, his track record as tech-predictor is impeccable and You can not fault his logic or data. Please look up on Youtube the talk he gave in Mumbai in memory of APJ Abdul Kalam.
His predictions on Solar and Lithium Ion prices have come true so far. I believe this one will come true too.
Quote:
Originally Posted by sgiitk
(Post 4202548)
Well such estimates are invariably optimistic.
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There is no 'optimism' in these estimates. It is based purely on economic logic. Tony Seba bases his calculation on the dropping price of Battery and Solar. Both of which make energy cheaper than even Hydro-electric based distribution. Seba points out that the cheapest distributed electricity can get is the cost of distribution itself, where as Roof-top solar will take out the cost of distribution out of the equation and will store solar power directly on to batteries (with least amount of loss). Thus, he predicts within a decade Roof top solar will be the cheapest solar everywhee in the world.
And the advent of EVs using such energy makes economic sense for world to switch to EVs. The autonomous vehicles are the only question mark, as the logic of that will depend on how fast regulatory environment can adopt.
While you may say there are some impediments in long distance commute with EVs, they will be overcome when Battery prices dip to $100/kwh, because range issue will be solved either by large capacity or by battery swap technologies.
Quote:
Originally Posted by kevintomin
(Post 4202800)
India's electric grid infrastructure is nothing to write about. distribution lines are overloaded.
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Tony Seba predicts that India will leap frog the 'grid'! Just as India leapfrogged the 'landline', Seba thinks that India can simply become the next generation power consumer by moving to locally generated solar power, which will be cheaper than grid power within next decade!!
EDIT: Adding the video link of Tony Seba's lecture in Mumbai on Clean disruption. Anyone skeptical should watch this. He has impeccable logic & data backing it.
Here is the Tony Seba lecture on Clean Disruption.
It is long, but is a must watch for anyone who is skeptical about his predictions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfXKxThT4HY&t=1216s
With due respects to Herr Seba I am pointing out one reality.
Sometimes economic or technical sense takes a back seat. Remember in the days of VCRs. Technically the Sony developed BetaMax was far superior to the Philips developed VHS. Neither was a small startup either. However, the consumer end was overrun by VHS, and the Beta took over the profession market due to its superiority.
Whay I brought this up is tht life is not always simple or logical.
Quote:
Originally Posted by hkollar
(Post 4205741)
Tony Seba predicts that India will leap frog the 'grid'! Just as India leapfrogged the 'landline', Seba thinks that India can simply become the next generation power consumer by moving to locally generated solar power, which will be cheaper than grid power within next decade!!
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Actually, we as a country are at a turning point where locally generated solar power silently changing energy scene. As consumers, most of us are unaware of these changes. Adding two links that give a glimpse of this change
1. Annual Report of Ministry of New and Renewal Energy
http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/annu.../chapter_1.htm
2. The World Bank Report titled "Solar energy to power India of the future"
http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/fea...-of-the-future
How changed energy scene is going to affect automobile sector is still open to interpretation. This is very critical for our economy which badly depends on imported crude oil and provides significant employment to large population.
Samdarshi
China’s push towards electrification is set to unleash a flood of new models over the next few years.
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Apparently motivated by a need to reduce its heavy industry-driven pollution, Chinese officials are in fact determined to break out of the dependence on imported oil, a natural resource the country is famously short of
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Quote:
the real driver behind the development is what’s happening in China, and the huge potential there for sales of electrified hybrids and pure-electric cars. It’s not just about good business, either; established car makers that ignore China’s drive towards EVs also fear they could be left behind in a technology battle that, should they lose, could leave their grip on other markets vulnerable to attack.
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link
It is already happening in cities like Shanghai. Car ownership is now rationed like in Singapore. Cars without a Shanghai number plate and not allowed during peak hours.
However, if you buy an electric car, none of this applies
I think we are in for a historic change. I predict that the change over in transportation will be in two stages:
1. Local travel moves to Electric. Here the charging can be local at home or at work or both.
2. Distance travel changes. Here there are two possibilities - hybrid (but this may be short term) and then pure electric with charging stations at proper intervals. These will have to be couple with human charging stations (food and toilets) since the EV is expected to take about 35-45 mins minimum to charge to say 90%.
When giants take notes of changing situation, it must be real.
While the majority focus is on cars I believe Electric two wheeler will be a very good entry point to introduce EVs in a market like India. India accounts for the largest two wheeler sales and there's hardly any good electric scooter/bike available in the market (I am not considering the ones currently on sale with limited range and speed). Both Ather S340 and Tork T6X seems to be good offering but the pricing doesn't seem to fit our market needs (T6x - 1.25 Lakh and S340 around 1 lakh).
An electric scooter/bike with a range of 100km, max speed upto 80kmph and on-road price of 70,000 to 80,000 will be a good buy for urban commuters. Any such reliable offering can sell in decent numbers and this will increase the awareness of such vehicles among general public.
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