[Rahul Bhalgat]

We are talking of EV, at present with Lithium Ion batteries. If the global car market is to shift towards EV, are the natural resources of Lithium going to be adequate without recycling of the Lithium (unlike the recycling of lead in the lead acid batteries)? At least till the next alternative viable battery technology emerges.

[100BHP]

Originally Posted by smartcat

All of them sound like Washing Machine models

I think most Indian car customers will stick to known brands. EV technology can always be borrowed from other manufacturers & tech companies working in this space.

Do you think Maruti / TATA / M&M and their ancillaries will hold their stock values for long ? How long will be the right number of years ?

[Rahul Bhalgat]

Originally Posted by 100BHP

Do you think Maruti / TATA / M&M and their ancillaries will hold their stock values for long ? How long will be the right number of years ?

Tata and Mahindra do not depend solely on passenger cars; they have utility vehicles and commercial vehicles too.

Maruti has shown reasonably good vision and market understanding all these years. The company has been quick to introduce new products. Already they are preparing themselves for EV.

All three companies also have a good understanding of Govt. machinery.

So stocks of these companies shall not lose their values just because of EV in passenger cars.

[Hayek]

Not sure if pure EV players are going to have any competitive advantage in the long run.

As many people have said, EVs have fewer moving parts than traditional cars - with motors, batteries and control software being the key components. Hence EV manufacturing becomes much more of a system integration task than current auto manufacturing is.

You could very well see this industry develop in a manner similar to PCs or Smartphones - with some players going for a Wintel or Android strategy, focused on building a body and marketing around a platform provided by some industry standard supplier - while some others adopting the Apple strategy of full integration to deliver a premium experience to customers.

The Chinese will almost certainly dominate the cheap end of the scale - but the question is whether a Chinese company will become the Intel / Qualcomm / ARM or Microsoft / Google of this ecosystem. In my view, the jury is still out on that -Toyota, Panasonic, LG, Renault and even VW probably have as good a shot at trying for the Wintel role.

And the more affluent folks will probably still be buying BMWs, Mercedes, Teslas or Apples for the feel and brand value that comes with those products.

[Blow Horn Ok]

Originally Posted by GTO

Many experts seem to think that the next generation of automotive usage will be via subscriptions & short-term rentals, not ownership.

If that is the case, there would be nil or very less emotional connect and sense/pride of ownership. And in lack of such connection, how would be the scene of automotive forums (like us) and magazines?

How would we discuss the characteristics of an electric motor? How would we seek suggestions from forum members for the next upgrade? Issues with cars - a bug in the software? Blown circuit of charging unit?

I guess cars would become like smartphones, where we do a bit of research regarding specifications, purchase the phone and after the purchase we forget about the market and trends until we decide to get a new one.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by 100BHP

Do you think Maruti / TATA / M&M and their ancillaries will hold their stock values for long ? How long will be the right number of years ?

Originally Posted by Rahul Bhalgat

So stocks of these companies shall not lose their values just because of EV in passenger cars.

Visit the "Monthly Sales" thread regularly. Raise an eyebrow when you see either an EV model or Chinese brand (proper Chinese brand like Geely or BYD) in this list



Sit up and take notice when you see a proper Chinese brand or an EV in the top 20 list:



Till then, you can rest easy.

[bugatti]

Let me be the devil's advocate here (again, 11) and explain various scenarios in the next 3 years.

EVs require far fewer parts compared to ICE cars. That means fewer suppliers required. Complexity reduces significantly (by an order of 10x). The Chinese can bring their own ecosystem of suppliers for assembly (and nothing but assembly will be done here initially).

The Chinese govt, as GTO said, is betting the house on EVs. Not only for domestic consumption but also for exports. (1)

There is already strong competition in China amongst EV automakers. WSJ says there were 487 at last count. (2)

Even if 0.5-1 % of these survive, that will be more automakers than there here in India who are working on EVs earnestly..

When you're dealing with EVs, you're looking for 3 factors
a) cost b) reputation c) service

Cost will be among the best in the industry
Reputation/quality- there will be a shakeout in the Chinese EV market in the coming years. , Only the best will be able to jump across the Bay of Bengal. So one can be assured of their staying power. These EVs will easily pass standard NCAP tests.
Service- Since there are so few parts involved, service isn't as big an issue as it might be with ICE cars.
Since there's a lot of IoT stuff, expect remote diagnostics, and centralized service centres (Ather's is a blueprint here).

What the matter is right now is that Chinese EV makers are 5 years ahead of their counterparts in India. And that is a huge advantage. BYD is rolling out buses by October 2018 in Bangalore. BYD has supplied the entire fleet of buses to Shenzhen (which is all-electric now) (3) (4)

India is a very nascent market for EVs. The reason BYD is not bringing its EVs here (they're really good and cost-competitive amongst EVs in China) is because:

-No charging infrastructure. Our govt is talking, but nothing on the ground yet. Unlike China, which has incentivized and mandated private investment in charging infrastructure points (you can't buy an EV without pre-installing a charging point, and since you can't buy an ICE car in major cities without a permit now.. ) Just BMW putting up 80k charging points in China (5)

-No standardized EV charging points (6)

-The regulations to support EVs (domestic battery production, reduction in tax on battery, resistriction on sale of ICE cars in clogged cities, tax incentives on installation of charging points)..

Having said, the Chinese are far behind in battery technology compared to the Japanese right now. (7)
The gap will narrow but not by much in the next 2-3 years. But it will by 2023-4. Depends on new materials and innovation and what the global price of lithium is.

The Chinese are a bit confused, there's a bit of everything, govt pushing EVs, regulations, private market investment but at the end of it, consumers are still reluctant in adoption. (8) (9)

In some years, EVs will compete fair and square against ICE cars but until then, investments in India will be slow. Even in China, it's not a foregone conclusion that the Chinese will dominate the market, because the money is in premium cars. And its the Japanese, Europeans who dominate this. Will it be the same in India? (10)

You can draw your own conclusions.

Sources-
1) https://www.bloomberg.com/news/featu...era-of-driving

2) https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-h...ore-1531992601

3) https://www.deccanherald.com/city/el...rt-690077.html

4) https://www.wri.org/blog/2018/04/how...tric-bus-fleet

5) https://insideevs.com/bmw-to-install...ints-in-china/

6) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chargi...tion#Standards

7) https://www.wsj.com/articles/chinas-...ies-1508587203

(Chinese batteries can’t yet match foreign equivalents on power or cost, acknowledged a spokesman for Guoxuan High-Tech, another big Chinese supplier. But with sales guaranteed in the captive Chinese market, “we believe we can close this gap in a short time,” he said.)

8) https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-w...ars-1506954248

9) https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Bus...electric-road2

10) http://www.autonews.com/article/2018...inas-ev-market

11) https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...ml#post4439168 (Toyota & Suzuki to supply cars to each other in India)

[shortbread]

Apologies, going

The charging infrastructure issue is not a huge challenge as we make it out to be. At the start of the 2000s, if someone told me that all major Indian cities will have dedicated metro-rail public transport networks I would have simply scoffed at the idea!

Installing an EV charging infrastructure is nowhere near as challenging. With the right incentives, public-private partnerships and strict commercial/residential building regulations, a dedicated EV charging network can be build up at rapid pace.

Secondly, we forget people have the option of setting up charging points at their own homes. Especially people who a using EVs for shorter trips can charge cars at home and simply not require public charging points most of the time.

The Govt. should push for people installing 3KW Solar roof tops in order to bring additional electricity on the grid. The combination of this and an EV vehicle means people generate their own fuel for personal transportation.

I know all this sounds like a fairy tale at the moment, but with the right incentives in place, rising fuel prices and more affordable EVs (fingers crossed) being launched..........all of this might create the perfect storm for an EV revolution in India.

[AKTRACK]

Has the question being answered from an environment perspective? I mean we may save ourselves from fossil fuel emissions with EVs but what about the pile of discarded batteries that we will have in EV times. Won't they pose an environment hazard? I hope it is not like we let go of one evil to catch another.

[Holyghost]

Originally Posted by bugatti

-No standardized EV charging points (6)

India has already standardized its EV Charging points under Bharat EV Charger AC-001 and Bharat EV Charger DC-001 standards. The good news is that the charging points are based on Chinese GB/T standards, which means the Chinese EV makers can directly launch their EVs without needing any modifications to their charging setups.

Tesla already have launched its models with GB/T charging ports in China. Tata Tigor EV and Mahindra e2o is also using the same charging ports for its DC fast charging.

Not just that, Chinese CEC and ChadeMo has signed an agreement to jointly develop the next global fast charging standard which will also be backward compatible with existing ChadeMo and GB/T ports.

In short, in near future we will be left with just 2 charging standards which are the joint GB/T - ChadeMO standard and the German CCS standard. Since Tesla already provides adapters for ChadeMO in US and other countries while in China, the Teslas comes with GB/T ports, we no longer have to worry about Tesla super charging standards.
I strongly believe the Germans too will fall in line since the rest of the world is going to merge on a common standard.