Are the Dons of the internal combustion engine going to be 'also rans' in an electric future?

Sk8r · 19th September 2019, 09:49

This is my vision of how this will turn up

- There could be few consolidation in the number of manufacturers. Few OEM might leave India's shores

- There will be Specialist in Domains , meaning there could be exclusive specialist in Battery technology, Solar Panel, Design, Charging, supply chain etc.,

- This in turn will lead to increased collaboration within OEMs

- Numbers of options in Vehicles will be low to begin with and grow as the market matures

- Service costs will go down considerably assuming EVs will have lower wear and tear, Therefore OEMs will look to SAAS as possible source of avenue

- There will be no monopoly in market dominance as is the case now as it's a clean slate for everyone when it comes to EV with exception in case Tesla decides to land up in India tomorrow

nrahul · 19th September 2019, 10:23

I think software will be the key differentiator in the success or failure of the auto company and not the type of engine. As someone said above, the auto hardware will get commodities and the company with good software to put it together will rule the industry.

srini1785 · 19th September 2019, 11:08

Quote:

Originally Posted by nrahul

I think software will be the key differentiator in the success or failure of the auto company and not the type of engine. As someone said above, the auto hardware will get commodities and the company with good software to put it together will rule the industry.

ICE which was the last bastion of the mechanical engineer just passed on the baton to the Electric motor which is the domain of the electrical engineer. I can live with that. But i will draw a line at those Laptop welding IT nerds setting agenda for the automotive industry. Luckily, Laptop does not produce torque by itself. Man on top ..always!.

groom · 19th September 2019, 11:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTO

Adapt or die is the new mantra. We're definitely going to see some changes in the balance of power. New car makers are going to emerge, as will new countries too (e.g. China betting heavily on electric cars).

China is no longer betting heavy on eVs but now it is heavily orienting its domestic industry towards fuel cell. (Information from market research sources)

Global resources needed to build eVs and Batteries are predominantly owned now by Chinese companies (Deal is done, closed and dead). Especially with reference to raw materials. Like eg: global raw diamond market is owned by debeers, similarly global Lithium, cobalt and nickle raw materials are all sold to Chinese and Japanese companies ( Which is available in limited countries like Chile Cuba etc).

This is also one of the key reasons, China is rolling back eV incentives. china is also facing huge land fill and end of life crisis for eVs emerging out of 2W, which were lead acid and now Liion. Junk plying everywhere, although Bajaj quoted it as success, Beijing and many in China and allied industries quotes 2W eV transition in China as a failure, because of the mess it has made. From one problem, they jumped to another.

For India, unless we have a clear end of life plan for batteries, and robust power distribution methods, eVs are not boons.

Aroy · 19th September 2019, 11:43

Batteries, or energy pack, need to advance to a level that a small battery pack, of say 100kg; can last at least a couple of thousand kilometers for a small car and 500+km for a truck. It should also charge in a very short time to be useful. There is simply no replacement for a tank full of liquid fuel in terms of ease of use, energy density, replenishment and portability. Even CNG/LPG is not as versatile as liquid fuel.

Till such high density energy packs (as depicted in Science Fiction Films) come, in my opinion electric propulsion will always be a niche market. Where ever there is charging facility it will blossom. But out there in the wild and remote areas, it will be difficult to sustain battery without any charging facility.

Similarly for military, the IC engine is not replaceable, as liquid fuel can be carried along, unlike batteries. If at all military vehicles go electric, there will be an elaborate battery charging system tagging along, run by, of course an IC engine.

Similar is the case of aviation which will require even higher performing energy packs to function.

In short the transformation from IC engines to energy packs will be successful when very high density energy packs are available, till then IC engines rule.

laser2707 · 19th September 2019, 15:01

I like electric cars, I find them cool. Tesla & Taycan especially come to mind. Electric cars are deemed eco-friendly because they don't emit fumes. But they run on batteries which are made of Lithium. How do you dispose of them safely when they run out?

In our eagerness to embrace a certain technology, we seem to be overlooking the hazards down the road.

Make no mistake, I am all for clean technology. But trading one evil for another is probably not the way. Unless the authorities come up with a workable recycling plan for spent batteries & a charging infrastructure, this will end up as a huge nightmare.

Neo18 · 19th September 2019, 18:28

Couldn't have said it better,

Check this youtube video and the channel in general,

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ns_0UTOc6X4

Cowardly Lion · 19th September 2019, 19:20

An electric battery is one product that has resisted (till now) all attempts of researchers at discovering a game changing commercially viable breakthrough. I would like to believe that keeping in mind the amount of money that is being poured into this area which has skyrocketed in recent years, a breakthrough is due sooner rather than later.*

Depending on a foreign source for energy is fast becoming an unsustainable option for those nations (a majority) which have less than needed energy resources of their own.

Realization of the environmental impact of our consumption is a (relatively speaking of course) recent thing and it would be quite imprudent to assume that a less than appropriate system for battery disposal/recycling would not be appropriately addressed. Lot of lessons have been learnt from our tryst with the ICE.*

I also believe that awareness levels today are far better than what they were even 10 years ago. A case in point is the ongoing disapproval expressed by ppl re Aarey forest near Mumbai - not getting into the right & wrong of it, just awareness.

Another thing - while roads,vehicles etc may have become better, the way we get from point 'A' to point 'B' has not changed much.

Services like Ola/Uber hv already caused a perceptible shift wherever they are available and I am sure that intersection of various emerging technologies will surely have a very significant impact on the transport sector as we know it…

I, for one, remain very optimistic ..

19th September 2019, 09:49	#16
Sk8r BHPian Join Date: Jul 2019 Location: Chennai Posts: 462 Thanked: 2,169 Times	Re: Are the Dons of the internal combustion engine going to be 'also rans' in an electric future? This is my vision of how this will turn up - There could be few consolidation in the number of manufacturers. Few OEM might leave India's shores - There will be Specialist in *Domains* , meaning there could be exclusive specialist in Battery technology, Solar Panel, Design, Charging, supply chain etc., - This in turn will lead to increased collaboration within OEMs - Numbers of options in Vehicles will be low to begin with and grow as the market matures - Service costs will go down considerably assuming EVs will have lower wear and tear, Therefore OEMs will look to SAAS as possible source of avenue - There will be no monopoly in market dominance as is the case now as it's a clean slate for everyone when it comes to EV with exception in case Tesla decides to land up in India tomorrow
	() Thanks

19th September 2019, 10:23	#17
nrahul BHPian Join Date: Feb 2016 Location: Hyderabad Posts: 60 Thanked: 59 Times	Re: Are the Dons of the internal combustion engine going to be 'also rans' in an electric future? I think software will be the key differentiator in the success or failure of the auto company and not the type of engine. As someone said above, the auto hardware will get commodities and the company with good software to put it together will rule the industry.
	() Thanks

19th September 2019, 11:43	#20
Aroy Senior - BHPian Join Date: Aug 2010 Location: Delhi Posts: 2,582 Thanked: 2,741 Times View My Garage	Re: Are the Dons of the internal combustion engine going to be 'also rans' in an electric future? Batteries, or energy pack, need to advance to a level that a small battery pack, of say 100kg; can last at least a couple of thousand kilometers for a small car and 500+km for a truck. It should also charge in a very short time to be useful. There is simply no replacement for a tank full of liquid fuel in terms of ease of use, energy density, replenishment and portability. Even CNG/LPG is not as versatile as liquid fuel. Till such high density energy packs (as depicted in Science Fiction Films) come, in my opinion electric propulsion will always be a niche market. Where ever there is charging facility it will blossom. But out there in the wild and remote areas, it will be difficult to sustain battery without any charging facility. Similarly for military, the IC engine is not replaceable, as liquid fuel can be carried along, unlike batteries. If at all military vehicles go electric, there will be an elaborate battery charging system tagging along, run by, of course an IC engine. Similar is the case of aviation which will require even higher performing energy packs to function. In short the transformation from IC engines to energy packs will be successful when very high density energy packs are available, till then IC engines rule.
	() Thanks

19th September 2019, 15:01	#21
laser2707 BHPian Join Date: Mar 2019 Location: Kolkata Posts: 89 Thanked: 265 Times	Re: Are the Dons of the internal combustion engine going to be 'also rans' in an electric future? I like electric cars, I find them cool. Tesla & Taycan especially come to mind. Electric cars are deemed eco-friendly because they don't emit fumes. But they run on batteries which are made of Lithium. How do you dispose of them safely when they run out? In our eagerness to embrace a certain technology, we seem to be overlooking the hazards down the road. Make no mistake, I am all for clean technology. But trading one evil for another is probably not the way. Unless the authorities come up with a workable recycling plan for spent batteries & a charging infrastructure, this will end up as a huge nightmare.
	(2) Thanks

19th September 2019, 19:20	#23
Cowardly Lion BHPian Join Date: Apr 2012 Location: New Delhi Posts: 63 Thanked: 66 Times	An electric battery is one product that has resisted (till now) all attempts of researchers at discovering a game changing commercially viable breakthrough. I would like to believe that keeping in mind the amount of money that is being poured into this area which has skyrocketed in recent years, a breakthrough is due sooner rather than later.* Depending on a foreign source for energy is fast becoming an unsustainable option for those nations (a majority) which have less than needed energy resources of their own. Realization of the environmental impact of our consumption is a (relatively speaking of course) recent thing and it would be quite imprudent to assume that a less than appropriate system for battery disposal/recycling would not be appropriately addressed. Lot of lessons have been learnt from our tryst with the ICE.* I also believe that awareness levels today are far better than what they were even 10 years ago. A case in point is the ongoing disapproval expressed by ppl re Aarey forest near Mumbai - not getting into the right & wrong of it, just awareness. Another thing - while roads,vehicles etc may have become better, the way we get from point 'A' to point 'B' has not changed much. Services like Ola/Uber hv already caused a perceptible shift wherever they are available and I am sure that intersection of various emerging technologies will surely have a very significant impact on the transport sector as we know it… I, for one, remain very optimistic ..
	() Thanks