Re: Oppo plans to enter electric car market; to rival Huawei, Xiaomi and Apple EVs There are very few companies that have been able to make successful pivots into completely unrelated businesses. Nokia from rubber to phone was 20 years ago. Even building a related successful product line in an aligned business (remember windows phone) for a large company is difficult. But, then nothing stops anyone from making the effort if they can convince their shareholders (public or private alike).
While scaling tech companies is easier, if you go on a beaten path, EVs have 3 primary challenges. (1) The battery tech, completely IP protected (2) The software that makes the car. Not the traditional bluetooth connection or ambient lights, things like connected car, Lidar, AI on predictive information display etc. (3)The fuel supply, or charging station grid.
Let's look at each,
1. China, Tesla (directly and indirectly) ,VW group and the new GM group control more than 90% of this tech, the supply chain, manufacturing and will eventually distribution. Even Toyota, Honda and behind here. They will need to tech lease to build their own. For others its a clear OEM model. So there is no differentiator, hence no cost, design, flagship advantage. In a phone this is not so profound, in a car it will be. a 30 minute battery like difference using a off the shelf battery as an OEM is very different from a 50 kms per charge range issue. So, there will be those who own the tech and differentiate based on it, and those who will all use off the self and try to differentiate somewhere else. Maybe design, software, financial hacking etc.
2. The software. The car software is largely different from building on OEM OS. Hundreds of mobile companies have sprung up because google has built it from them. They have the playstore and eveyone else can create a differentiator else where. Other (and big ones) have tried. There was symbian, windows, Tizen etc, they don't scale for many reasons. While most people think software is not as difficult a problem to solve since there is not manufacturing and supply chain, unless they have built anything worth while that scales they have no idea. Car tech is very different. You can't run generic software, unless there is a generic car hardware platform manufacturer. So, you can't take an intel chip, a mother board a fan and make it happen. There is no generic EV car platform. No yet. Even though that might the holy grain for someone to get into. So, you will need build and integrate everything together.
Now tough can this be, mobile manufacturers do that today too. The difference is, in what happens if it does not work, and if it fails. If your phone screen just goes blank and stops responding because you did not integrate well, what max will happen to a user? That might stop, that call might be dropped, that netflix might get stuck, worst case that UPI transaction might be hanging somewhere. What happens if the regenerative braking from the brakes from manufacturer A and the battery pack from B did not integrate well, at a certain speed and your car doesn't stop? Suddenly the value of software, the efficiency of integration and the amount of time and money spent to test it out for each model shoots up to the sky. But, they there is always outsourcing! Remember what happened to an airplane manufacturer when they outsourced software integration and testing.
Another angle to software is that EVs turn the car into a piece electronics that is also mobile. Assume it to be a mobile phone that is so huge that it has a seat and can carry you along with it (maybe this is the thought that is driving all these companies). Your differentiator is the software, this so bespoke and custom that you need to own it to differentiate. It will take a lot of time, until all the three, the tech, the market and the scale make sense for a generic platform to evolve. Or, some one does a google making android to just build a cheaper alternative. Its too expensive to do that, and or there is no guarantee this will last. The churn rate, the per unit sticker price also makes it very risky for anyone to try. Hence we don't hear anyone doing it (atleast not publicly yet).
What is bells and whistle feature in a today's ICE cars, like auto park, is at the heart of EVs. Imagine you reach your colleague office porch in a tesla, get out, and presses "park in my slot" on the app and you land in your Oppo car (just an example, nothing against anyone..) and you have to drive all the way to the parking lot (behind that Tesla) and park the car, and then walk upto to your office! That is the key. Would you buy that car, if the subscription (remember EVs are not just physical engineering, newer financial and ownership hacking is also evolving) difference between them is say just 25% apart month on month? So, unless you differentiate there, and the flagships are made more affordable, its an uphill for those who are just integrators/re-branders/resellers.
(3) Fuel. This is the largest make or break for anyone who want to put a car out. Today, you don't need to worry on where and how the customers tanks up, all you need to provide a fuel inlet with a cap. This is suddenly different for EVs. Because the tech at the tip on the super chargers is custom. The reason why the Porsche does not sell much is that there aren't many tips charging them. Now, we can make the case for a generic super charger, it might come, but that is very tightly connected with the battery tech itself, so you don't own the battery tech/platform good luck selling cars that can't be charged outside your home. Again no differentiator.
Overall, the idea is not to make the case for just for a top 3 - 5 players. But, how different the car making (EV specifically) is today than say 20-30 years ago, when probably new players came on who still are alive today is worth noting. Commoditisation of EVs building blocks is happening from the bottom. Meaning, look at battery powered boards, scooters, the Bird like PTVs, etc. Scooters and 2 wheelers will follow, in those lesser of everything discussed above is needed, everyone is attempting it.
But, again we want many more companies and individuals to build EVs, and develop a whole new eco system. So, go Oppo go! |