Team-BHP - Electric vehicle demand weaker than initially expected, say auto industry execs

According to media reports, several C-suite leaders of large carmakers voiced fresh concerns about the growth of the electric vehicle market. The auto industry executives were also concerned about spending billions of dollars towards their electrification strategies.

During General Motors' third-quarter call, company CEO, Mary Barra announced that the carmaker will be abandoning both, its 100,000 EV target set for the second half of this year and the 400,000 unit during the first half of 2024.

Electric vehicle demand weaker than initially expected, say auto industry execs-toyotabz_3.jpg

However, GM isn't the only carmaker to roll back its EV targets, even Elon Musk recently announced that economic concerns could lead to waning vehicle demand. Mercedes-Benz is also having to offer discounts on its EVs worth several thousand dollars just to ensure they are passed on to customers.

Reportedly, dealers are taking longer to sell EVs compared to their ICE counterparts as new car buyers are now focussing on cost, infrastructure challenges & lifestyle barriers before purchase.

Honda also recently scrapped its plans to co-develop a sub $30,000 EV with GM. Toshihiro Mibe, CEO, Honda stated, "After studying this for a year, we decided that this would be difficult as a business, so at the moment we are ending development of an affordable EV."

Akio Toyoda, Chairman, Toyota Motors, who has long been sceptical of EVs, stated, "People are finally seeing reality."

Source: BusinessInsider

Link to Team-BHP news

Not entirely surprising given current economic conditions. Electric Vehicles have a higher capital cost which is offset by lower running costs when compared with an ICE vehicle. Two macroeconomic variables therefore affect the relative attractiveness of EVs vs ICE vehicles - interest rates and fuel costs. We are coming off an 18 month period where interest rates have risen tremendously - the 3 year US treasury bill yield which was 1% in Jan 2022 is now 4.84%. Spreads on loans have also widened - making the EMI premium on an EV rise. Fuel prices have of course stabilised for most of the past 18 months after a spike following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Net result, lots of people who were considering an EV may be rethinking. This can of course change if oil prices rise again - but in a higher for longer rate world, the EV industry faces serious challenges.

The post is a bit misleading, especially with a Hyundai Ioniq 5 picture on it.

1. Hyundai has confirmed that they won't be following the footsteps of GM and Ford and that their EV plans are on track. So I am guessing their sales are as they expected? https://insideevs.com/news/693556/hy...-on-track/amp/

2. The Tesla Model Y continues to be the best-selling car in the world which includes ICE vehicles like Toyota Corolla that cost half the price. In H1 2023, Tesla has clocked a 57% YoY growth. https://tridenstechnology.com/tesla-...9%25%20growth.

3. In spite of Tesla's growth rate, BYD is growing faster than Tesla. https://auto.economictimes.indiatime...-dip/104145988

So maybe it's the fact that the likes of Ford, GM, and Mercedes are just not making good EVs and consumers don't want them?

And of course, we see gloating by Toyota. Aren't they worried because they are going to launch a killer EV that can travel 700+ miles per charge and magically charge in 10 minutes? How do they plan to sell those EVs if people don't want them? Or maybe they are not worried because its vapourware?

Quote:

Originally Posted by volkman10 (Post 5652049)

Back in India, EV sales drop.

Q3 2023 : EV sales declined for the first time by 10%!

It was expected, as everyone knew new Nexon (EV) launch was due, and next gen Tata EV’s - Punch and Currv are also round the corner. I believe Tata’s EV numbers will be back in green next quarter.

MG paid the price of continuously increasing the prices of ZS, and was forced to make an official correction. Overall, the EV market for personal cars is only going to grow with time, as more grounds up EVs get launched at attainable price points. Wacky experiments like Comet are not going to succeed in India.

Quote:

Originally Posted by volkman10 (Post 5652049)

Back in India, EV sales drop.

Q3 2023 : EV sales declined for the first time by 10%!

Lets go manufacturer by manufacturer (in the order of sales numbers)-

Tata - The biggest EV portfolio in the country. They had sales decline due to two reasons - launch of new Nexon.EV which led to lower dispatches. Also, people are anticipating Punch.EV launch and holding onto their EV buying decisions.

Mahindra - According to me a missed opportunity, they took their sweet time to launch the product. But the product is so much inferior from interior and features standpoint to the recently revamped class leader Nexon.EV

MG - ZS EV prices were officially reduced recently. Hopefully it should lead to some sales pickup. Comet EV is a niche and very city specific product, lack of even 7KW charging option deters a lot of buyers who would love to have an option of taking their car on bit of a longish drive like a day trip.

Hyundai - Kona has started to show age and Hyundai should launch the updated Kona in India as well. Hence the dwindling demand for Kona. On the other hand Ioniq 5 is an outright hit and is doing numbers beyond Hyundai's expectations

Citroen - Half baked EV product for India. It is lacking features and has air cooled battery. Hence there are very less takers for it.

Kia - One EV product which is stellar but the price point makes it too niche. Its sibling IONIQ5 uses the same platform and is available at much lesser price.

Luxury brands - Mercedes, BMW, Audi and Volvo - Merc, BMW, Audi have launched EV products which are way to expensive resulting in a very niche market. Only Volvo has the best price point out of all with well rounded products.

Based on the above data, EV 4 wheeler sales in India are very much dependent on Tata Motors. And with new launches in pipeline, the dip is expected before new highs.

Classic case of sour grapes! EV car sales in the US increased by 50% between Q3 2022 & Q3 2023. EV sales have tripled in just 3 years - I'm not sure if we've seen such a sudden & drastic shift since cars were invented. The issue is, that the charge is being led mostly by just two global brands - Tesla & BYD and the aforementioned brands are loyally messing up their transition to EVs:

1) GM: Most of their EV line-up are overprized, heavy Cadillacs. They still don't have the Silverado EV in the market to compete against the Ford F150 Lightning.

2) Mercedes: Mercedes actually did a nice job creating bespoke EV platforms but completely messed up the market placement of these EVs. The EQS is nowhere near as desirable as the S-class & is barely distinguishable from the EQE. The SUVs also share the same blobby design that makes them more like an old Korean crossover than something futuristic while the EQE & EQS SUVS are barely distinguishable as well. Compare this with the ICE range where every car has its most unique identity. You can't make undesirable EVs and then complain they aren't selling as well as your ICE range. The EQE sedan is getting quite popular in Europe as a taxi nevertheless. Also, I can barely find any reviews for any of these models except the EQS sedan which means even Mercedes isn't pushing these.

3) Honda: Do they even sell EVs? The only review I've seen in carwow is for a petite car that came with such a terrible range that even Matt Watson advised to avoid it.

4) Toyota: Their only EV is the bZ4X which is mediocre to say the least as compared to its Korean & Chinese counterparts. Toyota is pushing ahead with EVs nevertheless, so they know where the wind blows - regardless of what they say.

Another (dis)honorable mention is VW (not the Group) which messed up its lower-priced EVs with poor quality control. The ID Buzz is really nice though!

These brands don't seem to have a problem:

1) BMW: Competent vehicles that share the same desirability as their ICE counterparts. The irony is, BMW probably spent less money on EVs than Mercedes given that they didn't develop bespoke platforms like Mercedes. Their EVs are doing pretty well, even the ugly iX which still gives a premium vibe.

2) Ford: Their EVs selling like hotcakes, especially in North America with the Mustang Mach E probably being the highest-selling EV in North America that's not a Tesla. The demand for the F150 lightning is so high that Ford cannot keep up with the demand.

3) Porsche: The Taycan is the hottest-selling model that's not an SUV - period.

4) Audi: The E-tron GT is selling well for its price while the SUV models are also fairly popular.

5) Hyundai/Kia: They are just on a roll, the EV9 will most likely set the market on fire as well.

6) Volvo/Polestar: Hot, desirable & well-made EVs that are selling well (perhaps thanks to their parent company) - they know what they are doing.

This is apart from other issues in the West such as inflation & poor consumer sentiments. Charging/range doesn't seem to be a major barrier in the West anymore, especially for Teslas.

Quote:

Originally Posted by shyampsunder (Post 5651962)

And of course, we see gloating by Toyota. Aren't they worried because they are going to launch a killer EV that can travel 700+ miles per charge and magically charge in 10 minutes? How do they plan to sell those EVs if people don't want them? Or maybe they are not worried because its vapourware?

And I beleive thats exactly the reason why they will succedd and others wont.

A big pecentage of people who consider EV and then fall back, do so due to the charging time/infrastructure and limited range. the felxibility with ICE here is unparalleled. Forget the 700 mile range, the 10 min charging time is enough to bring back 99% of those who backed off, myself included. I wouldnt mind paying upto 20% premium for an EV if it provided range and charging time as promised by Toyota.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nettooran (Post 5652673)

1. Toyota is unable to make EVs today that don't have their wheels falling off or DC charge more than two times every 24 hours without throttling which means you may have to wait up to 5 hours at a DC charging station to charge up to 80% when cars like the Ioniq 5 can charge in 18 minutes. https://www.insideevsforum.com/commu...4-hours.15531/

2. After 48 years of owning the best-selling car in the world with the Toyota Corolla, Toyota has lost it to the Model Y which costs roughly 2x the price of a Corolla.

3. Let's say magically Toyota creates this car that can charge in 10 minutes, how do they plan to charge given that it will need an MW class charger while both NACS and CCS don't support charging above 350 KW? Maybe, they will create their own charging standard? Why then have they capitulated and agreed to use Tesla's superchargers and started using NACS?

For those of us who have been watching EVs for a long time, we are used to Toyota's deceptions. Just like how Hydrogen will always remain the fuel of the future, looks like solid-state batteries are the new Hydrogen with Toyota constantly peddling stuff about it starting from 2010s. https://thedriven.io/2023/07/05/soli...ot-delivering/

Of course, it's a free market, and ultimately consumers will decide which tech wins out and those who want 10-minute charging can refuse to buy EVs.

My bet is that Toyota will not be around to see the end of this decade.