[Venkatesh]

February 2024 EV Data







Link

[Aditya]

February 2024 EV Registration Data - Post copied to a new thread.

[Kevinrevvz]

Good to see a Rolls Royce in there!



The Rolls Royce Spectre that was recently delivered to Coimbatore.

[JunkyardHunter]

I do not understand why these low speed ev scooters have no licence plate required. Have seen underage teens riding on these regularly. Can someone shed some light on this please?

[itspatra]

As per the Central Motor Vehicle Rules, 1989, all registered vehicles in India must have a High-Security Registration Plate (HSRP). This rule applies to electric two-wheelers as well, but there’s a key exception.

Electric bikes with power less than 250W and a maximum speed of 25kmph do not require RTO registrations or HSRPs. This exemption simplifies the documentation process for low-speed electric two-wheelers.

This are the requirements.

[ads11]

The per segment numbers are quite illuminating to me at least. Good to see how large a percentage of the 3W segment seems to be converting to EVs - those ICE autorickshaws never look the cleanest operating vehicles.

I'd have thought penetration in the Bus segment would be higher but that's not looking to be the case. You'd think EV buses at least for routes operating within metros would be ripe to go full EV (and I've increasingly seen EVs on those routes). Is that 5-6% reflecting then the size of the urban bus market or it's a fraction of that? I can't remember the acronym but there's a GoI scheme right to provide funding for electrification of passenger busses - how much penetration has there been from that?

Passenger EV sales are still a drop in the bucket relatively speaking but a profitable drop in the bucket seemingly if we're to assume the kind of margins say Tata must be making (only in the aftermath of the Seal's aggressive pricing).

[gnome]

India having the most polluted cities and imported oil, it's a shame we aren't adopting electric vehicles at a faster pace.

[Doonite]

Originally Posted by gnome

India having the most polluted cities and imported oil, it's a shame we aren't adopting electric vehicles at a faster pace.

I don't understand the logic of polluted cities - importing oil - adopting electric vehicles.

A couple of things to ponder upon (a 10 minutes google search):

• Our electricity production is still dominated by fossil fuels.
  
  https://www.reuters.com/world/india/...er-2023-12-05/
  

• Almost all of our lithium-ion batteries and components are imported from China.
  
  https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/01/27...ad-to-lithium/

• No standardised lithium-ion battery recycle system is in place.
  
  (I could only find what-if links here with no clear system for recycling in place. The fact that stands out is that it is very expensive and capital intensive.)
  

• The charging infrastructure is in a nascent stage. Forum members road trips are evidence to it about how much planning it takes for charges stops, whether they work or not, having to eek out maximum range, and having to worry about N number of issues. I can't remember the last time it took me more than 5 minutes to refuel during a road trip or anytime in general.
  
  Furthermore, EV's are still relatively expensive and cannot be a single vehicle in majority of the households. Price disruption by new players like BYD should help here.

This is like picking up a fancy new technology (EV's) which has it's own sets of problems and doesn't do a thing to clean up the mess left by the former (ICE's).

Although, I do agree that the technology is constantly evolving and we will get there in due time where EV's are clean in every way possible because their pollution seems to be in the backend - mining of lithium and the subsequent recycling. Additionally, there are other issues to take care of such as our very heavy dependence on lithium-ion battery imports for the foreseeable future.

Btw, India is 4th in world's largest oil importers (added bonus is that our reliance on OPEC monopoly is reducing due to cheap Russian oil) and the world's most polluted cities belong to Pakistan (Ranked 1) and Bangladesh (Ranked 2).

To conclude, it's not as simple to make a complete transition to EVs without having to take care of major hurdles beforehand. We will get there eventually but healthy discourse should be encouraged rather than passing sweeping remarks. :

[gnome]

Originally Posted by Doonite

We will get there eventually but healthy discourse should be encouraged rather than passing sweeping remarks. :

Not sure why you assume it's a sweeping remark. India has 42 of the 50 most polluted cities in the world. It doesn't make any sense to look at couple even more polluted cities and be complacent. Yes, India heavily relies on fossil fuels for electricity, but renewable energy is growing at a very fast pace and the target is 50% in a decade - we are on track to achieve that thanks to a big drop in prices of solar cells. Again, no one is saying electric vehicles solve all world problems - it's relative to ICE cars.
On the other hand, if you look at government policies there aren't enough incentives provided for going electric. And now, they have started removing whatever few incentives were there - e.g. adding road tax, increasing taxes, etc. Self reliance of energy, instead of importing oil is a big deal for economy.

[Redex]

Originally Posted by gnome

India having the most polluted cities and imported oil, it's a shame we aren't adopting electric vehicles at a faster pace.

Sorry, but I don't see how India shifting to electric vehicles is going to have a significant reduction in pollution. How does charging EV,s with electricity that comes from 75% coal generation help.
Perhaps the biggest single step to improve air quality is to stop "open air" burning of domestic and commercial waste. Most of which is recyclable and includes a lot of toxic plastic.

[gnome]

Originally Posted by Redex

Sorry, but I don't see how India shifting to electric vehicles is going to have a significant reduction in pollution. How does charging EV,s with electricity that comes from 75% coal generation help.
\

Pollution is a complex problem that needs several solutions, not just one. Even when electric vehicles are powered by fossil-electricity, pollution decreases. Because it is more efficient and shifts pollution to less dense area. India is now ~40% renewable and is on track for 50%+ renewable in less than a decade.

[DIY410]

Originally Posted by Redex

Sorry, but I don't see how India shifting to electric vehicles is going to have a significant reduction in pollution. How does charging EV,s with electricity that comes from 75% coal generation help.
Perhaps the biggest single step to improve air quality is to stop "open air" burning of domestic and commercial waste. Most of which is recyclable and includes a lot of toxic plastic.

Where did you get the 75% number for coal. India has reduced its coal share from little over 60% in 2014 to now close to 50%.

New capacity is mainly being added by Nuclear, Wind and Solar. Southern states in India get most of their power from Solar.
India is also adding a nuclear reactor every single year and each of this will have a capacity of 630MW. They will also be adding 6 GW of Russian reactors in this decade.

India is also making 60 GW of Solar panels this year and out of which 6 GW will be of made in India Solar cells.
To compare, USA has 8 GW of Solar panel capacity.

India total installed coal capacity is 428 GW and is also building 24 GW more by 2032. So by 2032 the total coal capacity is 452 GW.

So if do that math, 60 GW is solar panel production capacity per year as of this year. By 2030 we would have added 360 GW of additional Solar capacity and around 8 to 10 GW of Nuclear.

Reliance will also start commencing their solar panel production and all the others are upgrading their production capacity, so it will be a lot more then the current 60 GW per year.

[wocanak]

Originally Posted by Doonite

• Our electricity production is still dominated by fossil fuels.
  
  https://www.reuters.com/world/india/...er-2023-12-05/

Guess we will keep harping on this, conveniently ignoring the trend. The trend is clearly rapid growth in non-fossil fuel sources of electricity. Installed capacity of non-fossil fuel as per the article is 44%, so 56% is domination? Even if you go by energy generated, non-fossil fuels is reaching 30% and is already much higher in some states. It is like the growth from <10% to this in the last 5 to 7 years and the expected future growth is completely ignored.

Originally Posted by Doonite

• Almost all of our lithium-ion batteries and components are imported from China.
  
  https://eastasiaforum.org/2024/01/27...ad-to-lithium/

In what way is the import of consumable item like oil, comparable to import of something like Lithium-ion batteries expected to have 10 to 15 years of life and after that will remain in the country to repurpose/recycle.

Originally Posted by Doonite

• No standardised lithium-ion battery recycle system is in place.
  
  (I could only find what-if links here with no clear system for recycling in place. The fact that stands out is that it is very expensive and capital intensive.)

This is because current lithium-ion batteries available for recycling are the small ones from electronics with very different types, for which there is not enough scale for each country to have its own recycling. Many years down the line when EV batteries come for recycling it will make sense for this to come up in each country. Most EVs use only few limited cells (globally) in their battery pack, so it will be much easier to recycle them. Already in countries where EVs have been around for a while, the recycling plants setup don't have sufficient inputs. They were actually saved by reject batteries from new battery manufacturing plants, but as those factories tuned the yields they are again facing input shortage.

In any case what do you think is then the way to reduce pollution in cities, even if vehicle emission accounts for only say 30%, EVs directly reduce that. I don't understand why we make perfect the enemy of the good and keep dissing EVs without any constructive alternative suggestion.

[Doonite]

Originally Posted by wocanak

Guess we will keep harping on this, conveniently ignoring the trend. The trend is clearly rapid growth in non-fossil fuel sources of electricity. Installed capacity of non-fossil fuel as per the article is 44%, so 56% is domination? Even if you go by energy generated, non-fossil fuels is reaching 30% and is already much higher in some states. It is like the growth from <10% to this in the last 5 to 7 years and the expected future growth is completely ignored.



In what way is the import of consumable item like oil, comparable to import of something like Lithium-ion batteries expected to have 10 to 15 years of life and after that will remain in the country to repurpose/recycle.



This is because current lithium-ion batteries available for recycling are the small ones from electronics with very different types, for which there is not enough scale for each country to have its own recycling. Many years down the line when EV batteries come for recycling it will make sense for this to come up in each country. Most EVs use only few limited cells (globally) in their battery pack, so it will be much easier to recycle them. Already in countries where EVs have been around for a while, the recycling plants setup don't have sufficient inputs. They were actually saved by reject batteries from new battery manufacturing plants, but as those factories tuned the yields they are again facing input shortage.

In any case what do you think is then the way to reduce pollution in cities, even if vehicle emission accounts for only say 30%, EVs directly reduce that. I don't understand why we make perfect the enemy of the good and keep dissing EVs without any constructive alternative suggestion.

I guess you can cherry pick lines to make anything look like a diss against EV's.

My comment was clearly to provide context to the person I replied to, for it is not that simple to make a complete switch to EV's.

To answer your questions,

• Yes, 56% is domination until we become fossil fuel independent or the growth rate for renewable energy is maintained or exceeded.
  I struggle to see where have I ignored or completely disregarded the growth of renewable sources? The article is clearly linked for that very reason.

• I would like to see the data or statistics linked to lithium-ion batteries lasting 10 years or 15 years where in the batteries *haven't lost a significant portion of their usable capacity* (expected range) by that time period.
  
  AFAIK, the battery life in EV's is affected by multiple factors such as: charge cycles, wear and tear, hot and cold temperatures. The reason I mention this is because the expected battery life of an EV will surely differ in India compared to a country in the West.

• The oil remark was in reponse to the other user saying that India imports the most oil which is clearly false. I haven't compared import of oil to import of lithium-ion batteries as you seem to implicate.
  
  If I were to make that comparion, I would prefer significantly cheaper Russian oil wherein Diesel is still the backbone of our Infrastructure, compared to greater than 80% dependence on China for everything related to Lithium-ion.

• So, we don't have a recycling system in place then? EV's on a larger scale have been around for roughly 5 years now, I wonder how we plan to recycle those. I have completely omitted the fact cars like Mahindra e20 and commercial EV's have existed even more than a few years prior.

I am neither an environmental expert nor can I satisfy you in your question for an alternate method for reducing pollution in cities.

However, what I can do is look at the bigger picture as a layman, that the pollution in our cities or the country in general, is a multi-faceted issue and not just ICE Vehicles BAD and EV's GOOD. If you could be so inclined to go through my post again, I have mentioned the challenges we face with references to mass adoption of EV's. Furthermore, EV's reduce pollution? I agree. But, how polluting will the mining for newly found reserves of Lithium be? Going by global practices, very.
And how do you not have a recycling solution where you have been selling EV's for almost a decade?

We want the cities we live in to be clean but everything else from mining to production to disposal/recycling is not our concern. Sustainable reduction in pollution will have to happen with everything else in tandem and not just getting rid of one problem and creating multiple more at the backend.

Peace.

[wocanak]

Originally Posted by Doonite

• I would like to see the data or statistics linked to lithium-ion batteries lasting 10 years or 15 years where in the batteries *haven't lost a significant portion of their usable capacity* (expected range) by that time period.
  
  AFAIK, the battery life in EV's is affected by multiple factors such as: charge cycles, wear and tear, hot and cold temperatures. The reason I mention this is because the expected battery life of an EV will surely differ in India compared to a country in the West.

Assuming 200 km per cycle, 1,60,000 kms will take 800 equivalent full cycles of charge. LFP will retrain well above 90% of capacity and even NMC will retain mostly above 85% of capacity. LFP will better tolerate hot climates, but even if you discount that and double the degradation and look at 1,600 cycles, capacity reduces by only another 5%.

Below graph and paper has been cited multiple times on Team BHP, the paper also considered varying temperature, depth of discharge, and discharge rate and gives full details.

Originally Posted by Doonite

• The oil remark was in reponse to the other user saying that India imports the most oil which is clearly false. I haven't compared import of oil to import of lithium-ion batteries as you seem to implicate.
  
  If I were to make that comparion, I would prefer significantly cheaper Russian oil wherein Diesel is still the backbone of our Infrastructure, compared to greater than 80% dependence on China for everything related to Lithium-ion.

Please see the data below, typical 40 kWh LFP battery in India uses ~4kgs of Lithium (scale down the table numbers by 2/3 for 60 to 40 kWh). Would you prefer continuing import dependence on say 300 full tanks x 20 kg = 6 tons of oil vs ~4kg of Lithium import dependence per car?

Source: https://www.mining.com/web/the-key-m...an-ev-battery/

Originally Posted by Doonite

• So, we don't have a recycling system in place then? EV's on a larger scale have been around for roughly 5 years now, I wonder how we plan to recycle those. I have completely omitted the fact cars like Mahindra e20 and commercial EV's have existed even more than a few years prior.

1) If you see the above data on battery degradation, none of the cars sold in the last 5 years will be due for recycling.
2) To my knowledge prior to these 5 years EV sold less than 2000 per year, assuming 100 to 200 kg battery pack, we are talking 200 to 400 tons per year. See this data about recycling plants in US, most of them are 10000s of tons capacity. It will be at least 5 to 10 years, before there will be enough volume to justify setting up recycling plants in India. Till then the recycling is happening in a cottage industry manner, that is why old E20 batteries are selling for good price. A friend of mine had a ~7 year old E2O, which had some water damage, he was happy with ~4 lakhs he got.