[Rocketscience]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

Thank you for your views. I'm sure it reflects the thoughts of a million others. Similar views have been expressed a hundred times on other threads on EVs in Team BHP. Almost always by those who don't own/drive EVs. As I mentioned in my post above no one is thrusting EVs down any one's throat. It is another form of locomotion that technology has put on the table and those who wish to buy and use EVs should be free to write about EVs without having ICE lovers ranting against EVs and at times against the EV owner. Pray is that too much to ask.

For highly valued member like yourself who I personally hold in very high regards, thank you for responding to my post.
I think you are getting me wrong, I have driven an EV, quite extensively I must add as my in laws own one and I think they drive extremely well, that is not an issue at all, the abundant and instant torque are both great and addictive, they will be a great 2nd or 3rd addition to anyone's garage (I personally see myself owning one in next 5 years), but this is where I see them staying for the next 2 decades and not becoming mainstream.

Shoving down the throat has its reasoning as well, leaving aside a few Japanese companies, almost every other major and minor manufacturers have announced to cease development on new ICE technology and have made EVs the "main thing" going forward, something I don't agree with because of the reasons I mentioned. If everyone is investing billions on EVs and planning to go all electric in the near future, then EVs are all we would get and they are not at all Better than ICE cars to be good enough to replace them, in a few areas they are better but in a lot many others, they are just not there yet. I support the Japanese manufacturers sane and calculated approach to EVs here.
Hope this clears my stand.

[V.Narayan]

Originally Posted by Rocketscience

For highly valued member like yourself who I personally hold in very high regards, thank you for responding to my post.

Thank you for your kind words.

almost every other major and minor manufacturers have announced to cease development on new ICE technology and have made EVs the "main thing" going forward, something I don't agree with because of the reasons I mentioned. If everyone is investing billions on EVs and planning to go all electric in the near future, then EVs are all we would get and they are not at all Better than ICE cars to be good enough to replace them, in a few areas they are better but in a lot many others, they are just not there yet. I support the Japanese manufacturers sane and calculated approach to EVs here.
Hope this clears my stand.

I do not see ICE cars stop being built till such time EVs are capable of a 700 kms real world range {as opposed to OEM claimed range} achieved between the 90% to 20% charge levels and the EV charging infrastructure getting to a point where those owners who park on the road or whose buildings cannot support EV charging ports can also get their cars charged conveniently and without a headache. Forces of demand and supply will ensure that.

In the history of transportation when a new powerplant enters mainline service the older forms co-exist in production for years if not decades. Given that R&D dollars are going into EVs and not in the same way into ICE technology indicates we will have EVs for all of us with our diverse situations in 15 years time.

Cheers.

[Redex]

Japanese manufacturers can see that BEVs are not the real answer to the problem. Therefore they are not investing huge sums of money into a "knee jerk" reaction to meet current legislation.
Even the Chinese are investing really large amounts of cash into alternative solutions. From Nov 2022 to Nov 2023 the Chinese invested over 3,500 billion Indian Rupees (3,500,000,000,000 Indian Rupees) in hydrogen alone !!!
Full BEVs are dropping from favour in the UK, most are bought by companies or leased. The general public are not interested in BEVs mainly because the electricity costs more per mile than petrol or diesel. People are also put off by an inadequate charging infrastructure. The general public are also put off by BEVs having a " low" real world range compared with manufacturers quoted figures.
Many people are opting for the "pointless" hybrid route.
Even the legislation to enforce Full BEV manufacture and sales has been delayed by 5 years in the U.K.
Regards Neil

[TorqueAddict007]

I feel Japanese manufacturers are just doing this to minimize the EV sales of their competitors and promote their own hybrid sales, on which they have invested extensively, but I'll bet that once they come up with their own competitive electric offerings, their tone is going to change dramatically.

EVs are still a new kid on the block, with an insane amount of research, development and innovation left. BYD already proved that you don't just need NMC batteries to achieve the best efficiencies, and the environmental impact of LFP batteries, as well as their longevity, is better.

With so much research pouring into EVs, so much money being poured in by the huge corporations, so much incentives being given by practically every goverment in the world, except the petro-states maybe, EVs will only continue to become more and more dominant.

And while the NVH of performance cars as well as the exhaust notes are wonderful, for most normal people, the frugality, smoothness, ease and comfort of an EV is orders of magnitudes better than its noisy, thirsty and comparatively underpowered 3 pot peers.

So while ICEs won't die anytime soon and will coexist with EVs for a long time, and while hybrids may prolong their life, once mass market EVs start giving 400-500 kms range, with DC charging times under 20 mins, that's when people will start favouring EVs, not just as a secondary vehicle, but also a primary one. But adoption must and will be gradual, as to ensure that the infrastructure keeps up, so ICEs are not dying for a few decades at least, and who knows, fully sustainable biofuels may give them a new life and form.

It also is essential that the rate of EV adoption does not completely outclass the rate of addition of renewable energy. All the environmental benefits of EVs will be greatly diminished if the electricity for them comes by burning fossil fuels. So EVs are neither the spawn of the devil, nor are they the silver bullet to transport related carbon emissions.

They are a new technology, with potential to alleviate the carbon footprint of four wheeler transport. They need not be the only solution, and they cannot be a feasible solution if they are not assimilated into the market gradually while the infrastructure is upgraded to keep up with them, and also allow renewable energy generation to increase. But yes, they do represent an exciting shift and a completely new chapter for automobiles, which have had an ICE at their core for more than a century now.

[2nd_gear_7krpm]

Storing dead weight of 200-300 kg batteries isn't a viable solution in my humble opinion. I'm not an engineer and I don't know how they're going to do it, but what I think is the solution is to have some sort of a continuous power transmission, atleast on the long highways and xpress way, coupled with smaller batteries for usage off the power grid. Think of it like how the railway network operates. I know I'm throwing an idea in the open without any homework, or basis. But that's how all the innovation works!

[KA20NexonEV]

Originally Posted by 2nd_gear_7krpm

Storing dead weight of 200-300 kg batteries isn't a viable solution in my humble opinion. I'm not an engineer and I don't know how they're going to do it, but what I think is the solution is to have some sort of a continuous power transmission, atleast on the long highways and xpress way, coupled with smaller batteries for usage off the power grid. Think of it like how the railway network operates. I know I'm throwing an idea in the open without any homework, or basis. But that's how all the innovation works!

I have come across some articles on e-roads which mention roads being constructed with electrical conductors to charge ev's while driving. Though it is still in research stage, I feel it will become a reality in the near future.

[sachind]

I believe the Japanese manufacturers are not willing to go from the current Razor/Razor blade (Car and periodic service) business model to one where the car is sold and the service tail is minimal and only revenue you can collect afterwards will be repairs due to accidents and software addons which new age companies like Tesla are offering. That is also the reason they were pushing for Hydrogen EVs which have a significant service tail.

[Hayek]

Let me first try and answer the question on why Japanese manufacturers are focussed on Hybrids rather than EVs. As per feedback I have got from a senior Japanese colleague, that is because MITI is concerned about the impact that electrification will have on employment in the large universe of Japanese auto component suppliers, and has given a direction to Toyota and others to do all it takes to delay electrification. Hence the slow investment that Toyota has made in developing or at least commercialising EV technology, and the ridiculous arguments they make about the emissions saved per unit of battery materials used, as if battery materials are a real constraint.

A second reason of course could be that with Japan having started to shut down its nuclear power plant fleet after Fukushima and being land starved, it does not have the ability to generate renewable power in a material way, and so for Japan, it is a choice between burning fuel in cars or in gas turbine power plants - while gas turbine power plants are still far more efficient than the best hybrids, the difference is much smaller than for a nation which can move to zero emission nuclear, solar or wind power combined with pump storage systems.

The fact is that in India, it is far lower risk to move towards electricity based mobility than to rely to imported petrol and diesel, at least for large parts of our transport system. For the majority of cars and two wheelers which are used entirely for short distance transportation, EVs make far more sense than ICE engines. As the share of total units we generate from renewable and nuclear sources rises, the advantage of EVs only increases.

Further, the energy density of lithium ion cells keeps increasing as technology develops - the first lithium ion cells from the 1990s had energy density of less than 100 Wh per kg, the cutting edge cells of the 2010s had a density of 200 Wh per kg, and modern cells are at 300 Wh per kg. As technology develops, this density could easily double again - if not in 5 years, in 10. The cost of lithium ion cells has already fallen to USD 70 per kWh for LFP cells and USD 90 per kWh for NMC cells - and will likely keep falling at least on a trend line basis over the next decade.

So the fact is that for any manufacturer, spending time developing hybrid technology is a waste of resources - EVs are the way to go. You can have an interim spike in hybrid sales, especially due to political objections to “woke” EV technology in the USA, but in a few years, the economics will be irrefutable.

This transition would have been faster had Toyota and Honda deployed their resources to developing this technology - but they are not going to be able to stop this change any more than the luddites could stop mechanisation of the textile industry.

Of course charging is a constraint, but for 2 wheelers, you can charge in a normal 15 amp socket, and even for cars, a 15 amp socket would give you 120 km of range in 6 hours even in a car like my Ioniq 5, and a lot more in a Nexon EV. And 15 amp sockets are ubiquitous - there is no problem putting them up on every lamp post even in outdoor parking areas. So as demand for charging rises, supply will rise too.

For the small number of people who travel regularly more than 300-400 km per day, EVs may not be an option. But for everyone else, it is likely the way to go - if not today, then in 3 years. To add, arguments on cost based on YouTube videos from the UK are irrelevant for us. Based on my real life experience, I have driven 6200 km so far in my Ioniq 5 for ₹9643 - it would have cost ₹ 90,000 in my Tiguan.

[Chisels121]

Japanese are no strangers to tech. They were the first to bring hybrids in the U.S and brought the rav4 ev when even electric hatchbacks were non existent.
I feel they are perfectly aware of the fact that companies like Shell and Chevron would roadblocks in ev's adaptation a LOT in the next few decades at least. Chevron did this way back in 1990's with GM ev1 and GM had to CRUSH all the cars.
So all in all, they are probably trying to avoid the headache for new technology

[Contrapunto]

Originally Posted by Hayek

For the small number of people who travel regularly more than 300-400 km per day, EVs may not be an option. But for everyone else, it is likely the way to go - if not today, then in 3 years. To add, arguments on cost based on YouTube videos from the UK are irrelevant for us. Based on my real life experience, I have driven 6200 km so far in my Ioniq 5 for ₹9643 - it would have cost ₹ 90,000 in my Tiguan.

I'd say that with rapid progress in ultra fast chargers (150 Kw and above) and increasing proliferation of regular fast chargers, even long distances driven every day will become viable.

[84.monsoon]

EV sales growth is plateauing off in developed auto markets while hybrid sales growth is accelerating. Plug-in hybrids are neither here nor there, as they do use quite large battery packs of 20-30 KWHr and only provide say 100-150 kms of electric-only range. Ideally, I would want a multi-car garage with thr right car that can be chosen for each trip. For in-city daily commutes, I would like a pure EV. I would not favour a plug-in hybrids for this use case, as charging frequency would increase compared to a pure EV (daily charging versus say once a week). This will reduce battery life for sure. Plus, I would have to lug around the ICE drivetrain when I do not need to.

For out of town trips, I would want a powerful and fun to drive ICE car. For those BHP-ians who "Live to Drive" (as the team-BHP bumper sticker on my car says) these are the opportunities to enjoy the driving experience without having to worry about hunting for charging stations and range anxiety. Again plug in hybrids are not useful here, as the battery would die off after the first hour and I would have to lug around their weight unnecessarily.

If I can have only one car and need to do pretty long daily city commutes plus periodic out of town trips, I may look at Plug in hybrids, if they provide a decent electric only range (say 150 km or so) and have a powerful enough ICE engine to ensure long distance drives are not boring. But I think only a minority pf people may truly fall in this category, and also, the choice available for plug in hybrids in India is quite poor. I guess BMW XM is the only one at the moment?

[NH.DSG]

Thanks everyone. This was solid info and a good debate. I want to get a bit layman(ish) - it takes a few mins to refuel a ICE car and this is a huge advantage. It's something taken for granted, no thinking required, no planning. Unless EV charging infra and top up speeds, get close to existing refuel time, ICE will continue to exist and probably even thrive.

[DriverLess]

EV is the future of personal transportation if we can solve charging and power generation from renewable.

Otherwise, things like Kerala requesting EV oweners to restrict charging will become common occurrence.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/nation...le68039992.ece

[Livnletcarsliv]

Here are my few cents.

1. Japan is a small Island compared to any other developed country in the world. So obviously the natural resources including the real estate availability for power generation set-up is limited to a great extent.

2. One of major challenge for EV adoption for any country is the demand of power (also impacts the power generation). For eg - Japan's 2022 electricity generation for 2022 is round 5 TW (https://ourworldindata.org/energy/country/japan). And recently we know that India has overtaken Japan as the 3rd largest solar power producer. This again shows the limitation's of power generation of Japan.

3. The total number of EV sales in Japan is around 2.2% (around 88K) in 2023. This does not include HEV, PHEV's etc. (https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aut...th-slow-growth). For the sake of argument, lets take 40KwH (Nexon) is the average battery capacity of the BEV sold in Japan. And Japan has sold 4.77million cars in 2023 (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...to-market.html (India beats Japan in global car sales in 2023; remains 3rd largest auto market)). So even if it is approx 3.5 million new non-EV cars, the increase in power requirement for just 50% of EV conversion is around (1.75million * 35 KwH, Taking Punch LR as the benchmark) 65 Gw which is a significant proportion, especially when the installed capacity in already reducing due to decomissioning and damage of nuclear plants.

4. India is even worse with around 60% of installed capacity power generation is still fossil fuel based.

All in all what I see is that unless there is a significant improvement/development in the batter technology (vehicle battery + charging speed) and significantly increased power generation and optimisation, the growth of EVs WILL be slow and it will still be ONLY a lifestyle/another choice of fuel. Especially for any country like Japan, importing WHAT and HOW MUCH is a radical decision for the entire country. EVs to become mainstream and take over the 100+ years old ICE needs significant mindset change along with huge investment, extraordinary planning and more importantly execution which all are still in its nascent stages.

[TorqueIndia]

Consider a fleet of 100 combustion vehicles emitting a combined avg of 250 g/km of CO2.

Replacing 20 cars with #BEVs, but the remaining 80 vehicles in the fleet will still be ICE-powered, bringing the fleet CO2 emission down to 200 g/km.

However, if we replace it with 90 traditional #hybrids, leaving 10 pure ICE-powered cars - the average CO2 emissions will still be 205 g/km.

Now imagine the cost and pollution in manufacturing of those 90 #HEVs vs 20 BEVs !

That's a huge saving of at least $40K *70 : 2,800,000$

What's say Toyota ?