[anjan_c2007]

EV sales (cars) have been dwindling with a 20% drop in their reported June 2024 sales (5562 units) vis-a-vis June 2023 sales (6960 units). The major players include Tata, Mahindra, MG Motor, Mercedes, BMW and Audi whose EV sales matter for their numbers. The January to June light passenger vehicle (cars) sales figures show a drop of 10% on a YoY basis, compared with January- June 2023 sales.

On the other side two and three wheeler sales have shown rises by 11% and 25% respectively, based on the January to June figures for 2024 visavis 2023. Other segments like buses and light goods vehicles have shown a 118% and 407 % increases during January-June 2024, as compared to the corresponding period in 2023.

The sales of light passenger vehicles and heavy goods vehicles have also suffered reporting decreases of 10% and 48% respectively, during January-June 2024 as compared to the same period in 2023.

FAME II was discontinued effective March 2024 and the respective manufacturers increased prices of those categories of EV's eligible for such subsidies. FAME II was replaced with the Electric Mobility Promotion Scheme (EMPS) valid for four months from April 1 to July 31, 2024,

The Indian automotive industry is banking on the rollout of the FAME III (scheme’s third phase) to sustain the demand for EVs and enable the transition to electric mobility. On June 11, 2024, FADA president Manish Raj Singhania said, “The automotive industry is eagerly looking forward to the announcement of FAME III by the newly formed government. We believe that the introduction of new subsidies and incentives under FAME III will provide the necessary boost to EV sales and help increase their market share significantly.”

The newslink:-

https://www.autocarindia.com/industr...ne-2024-432122

[NomadSK]

This isn’t specific to India only, all over the world barring China EV’s sales are plummeting. Can be multitude of reasons, but I feel the technology will live along or co exist with ICE and will platue at certain percentage !!

Question is are we close to that percentage ?

[IFB]

The EV sales specially for PV segment is slowing down due to following reasons:

Majority of the customers who are buying EV PV are already having another car at home and EV is mainly used for city/local travel.

Range anxiety and insufficient charging network is hampering the progress. In a city like Mumbai, getting a space for parking is a bigger issue, where will they install charging sockets.

Price of EV is not sustainable to many of the first time buyers looking at difference between EV and ICE prices. Also reduction is Fame subsidy.

The other important point is Hybrid sales is growing and preference of customers to Hybrid more than the pure EV.

The current penetration of pure EV is around 4.5/5 percent. The EV sales of TATA is stagnant at 10-11 percent of Tata PV sales since many months. Not growing whereas CNG sales has increased.

[Jazzybala]

Another reason, my personal opinion, is the lack of clarity on subsidies for Electric cars. I myself have put the decision on hold till the budget clarifies the govt position on EV and Hybrids.

[navinmra]

No resale value for EVs. For that one reason alone, mainstream folks will avoid it.

[Palio_2005]

Originally Posted by navinmra

No resale value for EVs. For that one reason alone, mainstream folks will avoid it.

Agreed. I just tested what price I could get for my Nexon Dark Edition, MR 2022 model. The car is in excellent condition, gives me about 180 Kms in a single charge in Pune.

I received a quote of 7.5 Lakhs for the same. I was expecting about 10.50-11 L for the same.

This shows the trend for the second hand market for the EV cars. More people will move towards the smaller EV cars as these are primarily used for local travel. Intercity travel is not convenient as of now with charging infrastructure not yet enough even in large cities. Plus the charging time of 45 Min is not convenient as a car can be refuelled in max 10 min. Cost is another factor with the ICE cars of the same model much cheaper with no restriction on distance they can travel.

I personally think hybrid cars are the way forward for India.

[navinmra]

That’s right. I spoke of a tipping point for EVs in another post. A critical mass of EVs in the pre owned market, and price parity with diesel cars should signal more mainstream adoption.

On a side note, even a cursory look at hybrid adoption should tell you that people are willing to pay for more upmarket models (read hycross, hyryder…) that deliver better fuel efficiency (read lower running cost in city) with lower NVH. This market behavior is very instructive if you think about it. As an extension, the king of efficiency - Alto just doesn’t meet the above needs anymore and the numbers are telling.

[SoumenD]

Hybrids are the way to go in India considering infra challenges for pure EVs, high battery replacement costs & majority households in India being a one-car garage(me included), people use the same car for both city & highway.

100% EV adoption in India in case of cars is a good few decades away, for now strong hybrids seem to be a better prospect in near future. It solves the low mileage of petrol issue returning almost diesel like efficiency as well as no range anxiety like EVs. The sales of Innova Hycross hybrid & G.Vitara/Hyryder hybrids are good examples which attest to the fact that general public is OK with paying the premium. With scale the premium will only decrease and lead to higher & faster adoption.

[Humane India]

- We are almost paying 5-6 Lakhs upfront as a premium for the Hybrid system in cars such as Innova HyCross
- With the move of UP government of exempting road taxes on Hybrids and thereby cost reduction of almost 3L, it is still a heavy premium
- If the Central Government reduces GST on Hybrid cars and the prices come down by 5-6L including RTO tax exemptions, then and there only Hybrids will be an unbeatable option in the automotive market

- Even if we consider a combined mileage of 18 kmpl for city+highway for Innova HyCross, we can travel travel more than 1,10,000 km in 6L premium we are paying right now for an Hybrid Innova
- This breakeven figure is only sustainable for a travel of more than 4k km per month right now i.e. 2 year breakeven period

[chinkara]

Originally Posted by SoumenD

Hybrids are the way to go in India considering infra challenges for pure EVs, high battery replacement costs & majority households in India being a one-car garage(me included), people use the same car for both city & highway.

100% EV adoption in India in case of cars is a good few decades away, for now strong hybrids seem to be a better prospect in near future. It solves the low mileage of petrol issue returning almost diesel like efficiency as well as no range anxiety like EVs. The sales of Innova Hycross hybrid & G.Vitara/Hyryder hybrids are good examples which attest to the fact that general public is OK with paying the premium. With scale the premium will only decrease and lead to higher & faster adoption.

Hybrids and EV will co-exist as they cater to different needs. In an urban taxi or a 2nd car primarily used for intra city travel, EV is more efficient than hybrid. While as the sole car, hybrids edge out EVs. I don't think we'll get to 100% EV any time soon. But 50-60% may convert.

[chinkara]

Originally Posted by Humane India

- We are almost paying 5-6 Lakhs upfront as a premium for the Hybrid system in cars such as Innova HyCross
- With the move of UP government of exempting road taxes on Hybrids and thereby cost reduction of almost 3L, it is still a heavy premium
- If the Central Government reduces GST on Hybrid cars and the prices come down by 5-6L including RTO tax exemptions, then and there only Hybrids will be an unbeatable option in the automotive market

- Even if we consider a combined mileage of 18 kmpl for city+highway for Innova HyCross, we can travel travel more than 1,10,000 km in 6L premium we are paying right now for an Hybrid Innova
- This breakeven figure is only sustainable for a travel of more than 4k km per month right now i.e. 2 year breakeven period

ICE vs Hybrid gap is approx 5.5 L / 100 Km vs. 8 L/ 100 Km. So you save 2.5 L for 100 Km, i.e. Rs. 250. At Rs. 2.5 per Km, to cover Rs. 6 L, you need to drive 240,000 Km.

The big question mark in of course is the price of fuel.