My thoughts on... Raju & other Sr mgmt of Satyam
I am not inclined to believe that Raju and other top brass are as holy as they are being projected. It looks like a very strong case of insider trading. While I would take what ever he said in his confession with a pinch of salt. He did mention that his shares were hypothicated, and sold on margin pressure before the meltdown happened. Where that money went no one knows? I know he said he used to pull up the business but do you still trust him? The money was never on the books anyway! Profitability of business
The whole offshore model is based on cost arbitrage. I refuse to believe that it was making only 3% profit. Even companies fully based in US/Europe do make profit in this business.
So either Satyam was grossly mismanaged (which I doubt) or there was some money siphoning happening since long (which is still not confessed). Umm, did it go to help Maytas...?
The money is definitely laundered out of the operations, if not for himself, may be for his near and dear ones and other top brass, may be for Maytas, etc. On Satyam's continuity
At this point there are very low chances of any take over - which Co would want to take a Company with a tarnished image, questionable book value, eroding customer base, eroding employee confidence, and big risk of class action law suites
The company would have definately survived, was it not listed in US. However IMO the biggest risk to the company now is from the Class Action Lawsuits which can get filed against it overseas. Since it (technology) is a single company, the liabilities can bring the whole company down. Let's not forget that it's not the scam itself which has pulled down big companies like Enron and Worldcom in past, it's the lawsuits!
In Short term, as rightly said without any real cash in the bank, the company is going to face serious cash flow issues. One one side it would be difficult to collect Account Receivables from the custmers (due to the uncertainty risk customers would see in completion of their projects) on other hand no lender would be willing to lend. Further all vendors would expedite their recoveries. On Customer Base Since company's rating is down, and lot's of Corp governance issues which have come up recently (which is very imp in off shoring business), many customers would start looking elsewhere both in immediate term and short term.
This would only get compounded by the Company's ability/inability to deliver smoothly at these difficult times while still focusing on customer business.
New business, don't even think about it! On Competition
The smart companies would simply start talking directly to Satyam's customer base (and hopefully, if required, with the employees too).
I really doubt that any one would think of taking over Satyam company as such till it's book of accounts are re-audited and law suites if any are settled
Stock wise Satyam's loss would be it's competitors gain in terms for reallocation of IT funds from Satyam to Infy/Wipro/TCS, with a large part of it also moving to other sectors. On IT industry/Brand India
It would be incorrect to blame India Inc / IT industries as this is not an isolated case, such things happen everywhere. Moreover this was a US listed SOX compliant company, which means it was also adhering to US accounting practices.FIIs are smart enough to understand this, however general sentiment regarding Indian IT industry (off shoring) and brand India at large might suffer due to this.
(It's like a defect in American car is a "see there are DEFECTs", where as a defect in a Japanese car is an exception)Finally on Satyam Employees
IMO they may be the worst affected stakeholders, even more than the Satyam stockholders. They could be facing a big gloom - salaries?, continuity?, work?.
Right now the employees would have been told to keep calm and stay quiet from media, forums, etc, but the same guys who are talking about being TOGETHER at difficult times will soon start talking about layoffs due to restructuring. (Even if the company survives, I doubt they would not have enough business/money to retain full staff.)
Being in IT industry, I shudder to think of what would have happened to me, was I working with Satyam - with so many liabilities, etc and nothing to look forward too. I pray for Satyam friends and sincerely hope they come out of this mess quickly.
Last edited by ST7677 : 8th January 2009 at 12:59.
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