[ajmat]

What is yet to come with new gen diesel engines after 100,000km

-Failed turbos
-Worn injectors - nearly Rs 70k for a VW Tdi
-Dual mass clutch failures due to high low end torque
-Jammed duff glow plugs which cannot be removed sincethe high heat and pressure has fused them to the cylinder head
-dirty sensors - diesel is a dirty greasy fuel

Wait till we get diesel particulate filters!

[vb-saan]

I don’t think petrol cars will go extinct soon. And manufacturers are coming up with more and more fuel-efficient engines, and I hope to see more and more improvement in this area, without sacrificing much on power (e.g.; VW’s small TSI engines)

Originally Posted by ajmat

Wait till we get diesel particulate filters!

Is this already there in the Volvo D5 engines?

[NPV]

Can't say if this is the beginning of the end of petrol cars but the major factors influecing the decision today are:
1.Diesel fuel price not de-regulated so it is cheaper than petrol (much cheaper than petrol after recent petrol price hikes).
2.Diesel price hike linked directly to inflation in our country (read transport services) so price increase has a huge implication on everyone and politically sensitive.
3.For lower segment cars you generally pay about Rs.1Lakh more for a diesel variant and more road taxes so it usually comes down to doing some math to see when you can break even given your usage (though other factors like service costs, etc may not have been considered while computing).
Going forward, if the insurance for diesel cars also increases significantly, it can again affect the sales figures.
In an ideal world scenario, price of Petrol and Diesel would be almost similar like in other countries but that does not seem like it will happen in India.
Other factors in favour of Diesel cars is the technology improvements resulting in lower maintenence costs and general perception about diesel cars is much better in india now when compared with about 5-6 years ago.
EDIT: would be interesting to see how things would pan out if dealers/manufacturers offer more discounts on petrol cars, this can again skew the sales figures.

[Cesc]

Originally Posted by Zappo

10 years back the difference between a liter of petrol and diesel was approximately Rs. 15. People kept saying that gap between the prices of diesel and petrol will fill in. 5 years back this chasm actually grew wider and the difference was around 20 and 22 bucks. The clamor for removal of subsidy went higher for a while. If I remember correctly, that was when the diesel was increased by Rs.3 whereas petrol went up only by Rs.2 or something like that. People said that 'its happening'. See today. The difference is actually now of 30 bucks!!! The gap has only increased over the years.

In Gurgaon the difference is still 22 bucks. In Delhi too the difference is around that much only.

Originally Posted by Zappo

The second point to consider here is more subtle and nuanced. Suppose this massive subsidy were to vanish tomorrow. How do you expect this sudden surplus to be used? Do we expect a tremendously cash surplus budget? Do we think that all of a sudden our infrastructure will start getting extra dollops of push to make us finally compete with other nations of our size, "stature" and pretentions? I do not think so. All that money will only find its way to millions of other populist measures in different forms.

The fuel subsidy even as of today is not too big (from a percentage allocation of budget revenue perspective). As an example - the fertiliser subsidy and money spent on PDS is much larger. Agree about the money finding it's way to similar stupid uses if it goes.

Originally Posted by ajmat

What is yet to come with new gen diesel engines after 100,000km

-Failed turbos
-Worn injectors - nearly Rs 70k for a VW Tdi
-Dual mass clutch failures due to high low end torque
-Jammed duff glow plugs which cannot be removed sincethe high heat and pressure has fused them to the cylinder head
-dirty sensors - diesel is a dirty greasy fuel

Wait till we get diesel particulate filters!

I somehow don't agree with all these projections. I have seen enough high mileage diesels (well beyond 100k kms) functioning without any such issues.

[vina]

Guys - once the slap on the face (or, more importantly, pocket) of the govt. becomes tight enough you can be sure they'll take enough measures to discourage the diesel cars.

And keep in mind that rest of the world still has many more petrols than diesels - and will have them for a long time to come.

Petrol cars are not even close to dead, not by a long shot and not even in India.


PS: whoever though breakeven calculations are useless hasn't read enough "what car" threads.

[aravind.anand]

The day has come! When you tell people that you just purchased a new Petrol car, the give you that weird look and ask what's wrong with you! Gone are the days when you bought a diesel car and people commented that diesels were meant to power the trucks and not cars! Sigh! How days rush by :(

[oxyzen]

There are basically 2 reasons why people are migrating towards diesel.

1) Diesels are becoming much more fun to drive. Current CRDI can offer performance that can put many pesoline engines to shame.
As quoted by enzo ferrari "Horsepower sells cars, torque wins races" , the statement is incredidably true.

You can call me a convert. I am a huge fan of the enormous torque the current oil burners generate. On the other hand high revving petrol engine is not exactly my cup of tea. It sounds less practical and more brutal.

Turbo charged petrols, may be GDi and latest technology can make the current petrols faster, but I highly doubt they will still be able to compete with future diesels. What I hear, Diesels have more scope of improvement.

2) Running cost:
The math is simple. You shell out 1L more initially.
Assuming drive is 10K/year, wou will be saving 30K-7K(interest on 1L) = 23K.
ROI in 4 years even with a bare minimum 10K/year milage.

The higher resale of diesel can be countered with the lower maintenance of petrol.

Originally Posted by ajmat

-Failed turbos
-Worn injectors - nearly Rs 70k for a VW Tdi
-Dual mass clutch failures due to high low end torque
-Jammed duff glow plugs which cannot be removed sincethe high heat and pressure has fused them to the cylinder head
-dirty sensors - diesel is a dirty greasy fuel

Wait till we get diesel particulate filters!

I agree things are going to get nasty with DPF.
But failed turbo, worn injector is a rare possibility. Sure the low end torque if high, but this factor is very well taken care of while designing the clutch.

There are a lot if Logans/Innovas woth 5L km on the odo. Yoy only need to get it serviced properly.

[Equus]

Originally Posted by oxyzen

There are a lot if Logans/Innovas woth 5L km on the odo. Yoy only need to get it serviced properly.

Well, how about lesser mortals - what are the typical maintenance costs for say a regularly serviced 5+ yr old Indica? And a 3+ yr old Swift VDi?

Here is something to ponder-- (a poll might be better I guess)

Lets say, I am looking at i20 Sports Petrol at about 6.65L OTR in BLR..
Now with petrol at Rs 71.37 and surging ahead, would I still go for i20 sports? Chances are no. I would rather look at Swift VDi at 6.52L OTR.

Lot of folks, are doing that as we speak. No prizes for guessing what this means to the Beat B if its going to be the cheapest diesel (not including the eV2)

[deep_bang]

Originally Posted by ajmat

What is yet to come with new gen diesel engines after 100,000km

-Failed turbos
-Worn injectors - nearly Rs 70k for a VW Tdi
-Dual mass clutch failures due to high low end torque
-Jammed duff glow plugs which cannot be removed sincethe high heat and pressure has fused them to the cylinder head
-dirty sensors - diesel is a dirty greasy fuel

Wait till we get diesel particulate filters!

well. I have seen several Logan cabs having done 2 to 3L kms and seriously driving nicely even after all that.
So, does it not seem like they probably run more than petrol engines as they are built to tolerate higher pressures?

Qualis is another example of seriously high mileages.

[oxyzen]

Originally Posted by Equus

Lets say, I am looking at i20 Sports Petrol at about 6.65L OTR in BLR..
Now with petrol at Rs 71.37 and surging ahead, would I still go for i20 sports? Chances are no. I would rather look at Swift VDi at 6.52L OTR.

Its a no brainer.
Swift Vdi (if not Zdi)

-The swift is considerably punchy. I20 is sluggish. The car just dies with AC on. Neither is the AC effective enough to cool in moderate summers.
-Swift Handles miles better than I20. Co comparison.
-The new swift will have a conmplete makeover over the previous gen. I highly doubt it will be as good as I20 but still a considerable improvement is expected.
-Swift has good good reliability. I20 is notorious for steering rattling, body rattling, weak AC.

I dont mean any offense to any I20 owner. But it is not my cup of tea.
I would have still given I20 crdi diesel a chance nut never the underpowered, sluggish 1.2L petrol.

[vina]

Originally Posted by oxyzen

Its a no brainer.
Swift Vdi (if not Zdi)

-The swift is considerably punchy. I20 is sluggish. The car just dies with AC on. Neither is the AC effective enough to cool in moderate summers.
-Swift Handles miles better than I20. Co comparison.
-The new swift will have a conmplete makeover over the previous gen. I highly doubt it will be as good as I20 but still a considerable improvement is expected.
-Swift has good good reliability. I20 is notorious for steering rattling, body rattling, weak AC.

I dont mean any offense to any I20 owner. But it is not my cup of tea.
I would have still given I20 crdi diesel a chance nut never the underpowered, sluggish 1.2L petrol.

Is this is swift vs. i20 thread?

I think you are way

[RS_DEL]

Originally Posted by Zappo

Frankly, I do not see this diesel subsidy going away any time soon.

. Afterall, they do not stand to gain anything other than hundreds of newer headaches if they were to stop subisidizing the diesel.

Originally Posted by vina

Guys - once the slap on the face (or, more importantly, pocket) of the govt. becomes tight enough you can be

Petrol cars are not even close to dead, not by a long shot and not even in India.

PS: whoever though breakeven calculations are useless hasn't read enough "what car" threads.

* This news article is more rhetorical than anything else. It is looking at the obvious and doing the equivalent of shouting from the rooftops that armageddon is here for the petrols. It is nothing but simple minded sensationalism.

*@Zappo - Diesel subsidy is NOT going. Not any time soon.I agree with your contention it is politically bad for whoever does it.

* Modernisation of refineries for Ultra Low Sulphur diesel is also not on the horizon - Yet. If it does happen the input from a member (anjan_c2007) on an another thread - was pricing of both fuels will be almost at par - minus the subsidy for diesel ofcourse. So if in such a scenario subsidy has to be extended the subsidy bill will balloon, as the capex done by the refiners has to be accounted for. That WILL hurt. Will the government tolerate such a situation? My guess is it will not, but then your guess is as good as mine, since they are just guesses and no more.

* As the population of Diesel vehicles(cars) increases they will become the target of increased taxes both at the state and central level. Why? Is it because they (the government) want to address environment pollution? No! Is it because they feel the diesel subsidy is being abused? Maybe! Most likely because it is easy money!! The icing on the cake is the increased taxes can be easily justified to the target constituency - The vote bank. The middle class is NOT the vote bank.

* If crude prices start increasing then again it is bad news more for diesels than for perols. The petrol side of things does not bother the government much. They do not have anything to lose - we take the hit. the government might even tinker with customs and excise to ensure taxation is reduced slightly to keep prices at the prevailing levels for some time atleast. However not so on diesels - here the government takes the hit with every increase in crude prices. That is not a scenario the government is going to take lightly. They are going to target those who are the easiest to target - no prizes for guessing who such people are, We the middle class.

So to me atleast there is not much to fear for the petrol side of things - things can only go from bad to worse. If anything the worry lines are there for the diesel side of things - here the party could get over pretty fast.

I admit this is all conjecturing and my understanding of the matter could end up being proved to be seriously flawed.

[vina]

Originally Posted by RS_DEL

* This news article is more rhetorical than anything else. It is looking at the obvious and doing the equivalent of shouting from the rooftops that armageddon is here for the petrols. It is nothing but simple minded sensationalism.

*@Zappo - Diesel subsidy is NOT going. Not any time soon.I agree with your contention it is politically bad for whoever does it.

* Modernisation of refineries for Ultra Low Sulphur diesel is also not on the horizon - Yet. If it does happen the input from a member (anjan_c2007) on an another thread - was pricing of both fuels will be almost at par - minus the subsidy for diesel ofcourse. So if in such a scenario subsidy has to be extended the subsidy bill will balloon, as the capex done by the refiners has to be accounted for. That WILL hurt. Will the government tolerate such a situation? My guess is it will not, but then your guess is as good as mine, since they are just guesses and no more.

* As the population of Diesel vehicles(cars) increases they will become the target of increased taxes both at the state and central level. Why? Is it because they (the government) want to address environment pollution? No! Is it because they feel the diesel subsidy is being abused? Maybe! Most likely because it is easy money!! The icing on the cake is the increased taxes can be easily justified to the target constituency - The vote bank. The middle class is NOT the vote bank.

* If crude prices start increasing then again it is bad news more for diesels than for perols. The petrol side of things does not bother the government much. They do not have anything to lose - we take the hit. the government might even tinker with customs and excise to ensure taxation is reduced slightly to keep prices at the prevailing levels for some time atleast. However not so on diesels - here the government takes the hit with every increase in crude prices. That is not a scenario the government is going to take lightly. They are going to target those who are the easiest to target - no prizes for guessing who such people are, We the middle class.

So to me atleast there is not much to fear for the petrol side of things - things can only go from bad to worse. If anything the worry lines are there for the diesel side of things - here the party could get over pretty fast.

I admit this is all conjecturing and my understanding of the matter could end up being proved to be seriously flawed.

Well sir, diesel subsidy will not go any time soon because of inflation, BUT taxes on diesel cars can go up faster than I type this post.

just a 10% tax hike (with perhaps tax cuts on petrols) will swing the balance back towards petrol cars double quick - most small cars do not consume enough petrol to be able to justify that kind of premium for diesel and most large cars cost so much that 10% is like a few years worth of fuel supply.

Still even with diesel subsidy gone, the fact that diesels actually costs less (better FE, and slightly lower cost of production at the moment - ULSD will cost more) will ensure that going forward diesel will remain cheaper, subsidy or not, for all high mileage guys.


Indira Gandhi might of course have used her stupid policy of providing susbsidy to transport sector (in the process generating a huge black market) - thankfully the govt. is no longer that stupid.

[Equus]

Originally Posted by vina

Is this is swift vs. i20 thread?

I think you are way

Are you implying that buyers arent considering what I mentioned? Even folks who commute less than 20kms per day are considering diesel (at a lower segment if that be).

So how is it off-topic from the end of petrol cars discussion?

[fast&furious]

I don't think anybody will buy a diesel car because it's fun to drive . Compare an average diesel car with an average petrol car.The petrol car will usually finish first in almost all aspects except fuel economy.You might get that sudden surge of power with the diesel as the turbo spools but I like the consistency of a petrol engine with those extra HPs a lot more.

Many of the Indian car owners do not use their cars for daily commuting.Especially in the metros,a bike can save you 3-4 times more fuel and time.And most importantly,the average Indian car owner will take quite some time to use up that extra one lakh rupees in the form of petrol.

Most of the users in this forum are petrolheads and their annual running cost cant be compared to the annual running cost of an average car owner IMHO. Service interval is another issue.IIRC companies like Volkswagen doesn't offer any free services.

The Reliability of a petrol car is another factor. Some of you might have seen A 100000Km old diesel car.But we see 200000-300000 Km old petrol cars every day . And if what I read is correct,cost of repair is also very high for diesels.

I'm sure that the no. of diesel cars are likely to increase in India just like in Europe. But if you ask me if it's the end of the petrol car era,my humble answer will be NO. Just take a look at the sales chart of the Alto and the Wagon R.