Team-BHP - SIAM expects Car Sales to grow by 10-12% in 2012-2013

The SIAM (Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers) has released cumulative sales figures for the 2011-2012 financial year, and a forecast for the new period beginning in April 2012. Here's a sector-wise summary of the same:

Passenger Cars Segment:

Car sales crossed 20 Lakh (2 Million) units for the first time ever. 20.16 lakh to be precise!
2.19 % growth in car sales. That's a steep drop, when compared to the 29% growth of 2010-2011, and 25% in 2009-2010. The growth is the slowest since the 2008-09 fiscal year, when sales rose only 1.4% (due to the impact of the global financial crisis).
Notably, car sales could have ended up in negative growth, but the fear of excise duty hikes in the budget led to a surge in the last quarter, particularly in March 2012 (19.66% growth). This was also a time when several carmakers recorded their highest-ever monthly sales.
10-12% growth expected for 2012-2013.
Overall, the car industry took a blow from the high interest rates and rising fuel prices in the last fiscal. Then, Maruti's labour woes at the Manesar plant also dropped supplies. Interestingly, no other manufacturer really gained from Maruti's troubles.
According to the RBI, interest rates will come down, while the GDP will grow at 7.5 - 8%. This will hopefully provide an impetus to the growth of the automotive sector.

Two-wheeler Segment:

12% growth in overall sales. 1.34 crore units sold in the current fiscal (2011-2012), up from 1.17 Crore in the previous (2010-2011).
Motorcycle sales crossed 1 Crore (10 Million)!
Two wheeler segment expected to grow by 13-14 % in 2012-2013.
Rural sales contributed more than 40% of overall sales for the first time.
Honda Motorcycle and Scooter India (HMSI) became the third largest two-wheeler company, overtaking the TVS Motor Company.

Commercial Vehicles:

Sales of trucks and buses grew by 18.2% in 2011-12.
They are expected to grow by another 9 - 11% this fiscal.

Be sure to check out our latest sales Analysis : March 2012 Sales

My expectations from the new financial year (April 2012 - March 2013):

1. 10 - 12% growth is realistic only if there are a number of relevant product launches. It's been raining new cars for the last 2 years.

2. Petrol cars will continue to suffer, as another Rs. 5 hike is expected in current quarter.

3. Maruti will go from strength to strength. Labour troubles behind it, while the product range includes a new Swift, Dzire & Ertiga. The next-gen Maruti 800 replacement is expected in December.

4. Audi will overtake BMW & Mercedes if the Q3 is priced well. The underdog has a realistic chance of emerging as the No.1 in the market. Everyone will end up shocked (most of all, the super-aggressive BMW).

5. Chevrolet & Ford need some new stars to brighten things up. They can't rely on a single smash hit (Beat & Figo, respectively).

6. Hyundai runs the risk of losing No.2 position to Tata, unless it brings out some <7 lakh rupee diesels soon. Hyundai should also start thinking of 7 seater UVs. Tata has a lot of market-share points to be gained from the Nano diesel. It could well be a game-changer.

7. Fiat will continue to tank. The 2012 refreshments have done nothing for their cars.

8. Honda - until they get the diesels - only has the Brio to look forward to in 2012 - 2013. The Brio will take this company past the 10,000 monthly mark. Soon.

9. Mahindra will also (like Maruti) go from strength to strength. The Mini-Xylo has solid potential, while the XUV / Scorpio / Bolero continue to rake in the $$$.

10. Nissan is happy with the Sunny's performance. Now, their next product needs to be very carefully positioned. If the NV200 van is launched next, it could gain traction (provided the price is right). Whatever the brand does now, it has to be backed by solid strategic thinking.

11. With no volume launches lined up, VW & Skoda ought to focus on building capacity, dealer network, reliability & good will. Their dealerships, reliability & after-sales experiences are far from the benchmarks.

For me the big players in 12-13 will be:

Suzuki: Increased diesel engine supply from Fiat will only help MAruti sales further. The Ertiga will churn in strong numbers and once production meets demand (someday!!) I forsee it closing in on Innova numbers.
The M800 replacement will be a very important product, if its priced anywhere close to the petrol Nano the latter will surely struggle.

Tata: While the diesel Nano is everyones focus I think 12-13 will be the year Tata rebuilds its lost UV ground. The Storme and a rumoured cut-price Venture along with the now resurging Sumo sales should slowly help UVs contribute close to 10k monthly.
The Nano diesel towards the fag end of the fin year will be Tata's game changer and wether they will f*^k it up is anyones guess.

Mahindra: The XUV500 surge will grow as production meets demand. Mahindra will continue to dominate the UV space with the mini Xylo and the SangYongs towards the top end. Not sure about the Verito derivatives though.

Nissan: The dark horse!! With a UV on the way and the demand growing for Sunny the Nissan's growth in India will continue. But once the low priced Datsun small car arrives in 13-14, the Jap major will surely start flexing its muscles.