Team-BHP
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From Hindustan times
History repeats itself, truth be told. After the alto took over M800 for the best selling car in India in 2005 timeframe, now, after 87 odd months, the swift has now over taken the alto for the bestselling car in the country with a cumulative dealer dispatches of 19484 units compared to alto's 17,482 units. Three out of every 4 swift cars sold are diesel.
More can be found on the Hindustan Times' Epaper website.
A prime example of the maturing of the Indian market. The trend now seems to be away from the bare-bones entry-level tin cans to more contemporary offerings at higher segments. However, time will determine if this trend is opportunistic or sustainable.
The irony is that both cars have dropped in unit sales in April. And the Alto, more so.
If those numbers are correct, the Alto at 19K is a substantial drop. IIRC, the Swift was doing 20K units after the production went full steam following the strikes.
I am surprised to see sales of Alto dip 30% just because its a petrol. I think there might be some other reason for the dip? whats with production, is every thing ok from that end.
The way sales of swift have gone up and the work done my M/S despite pressure from competition is commendable but I thought it will still take swift a couple of more years to take " Best seller" tag in India.
A great example of india's Per capita income increasing. But in the case of Swift and Alto role reversal, i think its just a one month event. Next month things should be back to normal again with Alto on top. I guess it will take a few more years before the Swift will consistently outsell everything else in the indian market.
As far as the numbers go for Alto, there seems to be something that has got the numbers down from 30K odd units to 19K units.
Nevertheless, swift+Dzire will almost match the Alto in numbers.
Alto's decline is steep & both have dropped when compared to Mar'12 Nos.
I would attribute this to excess shipments in March due to budget hype as well as FY closing.
Both should be back to their respective 30K / 20K nos very soon.
Another reason for the decline in sales of Alto is the increased market share of Hyundai's Eon. In fact Swift sales figures dropped from March 2012.
Swift seems to be on a roll. I could so many new Swifts on the road in Chennai.
I just wish Maruti Suzuki plonks the 1 Litre MJD into the Alto and throws in some safety features. Sales will easily double if they do that.
That's a very interesting piece of information . It could mean one of below three things
1)The Indian automobile market and buyer have matured and would not compromise on safety and features even if they have to shell out a bit more.
2)The ever rising costs of petrol have finally caught up with the buyers. Now the entry level buyer (Former M800/Alto buyer ) can buy the car but no longer afford the fuel costs involved on a daily basis , so abandons buying a petrol car all together.
3)Swift is just a damn good car !
IMO Swift beating Alto to the bestselling car is result from combination of 2 & 3 majorly.
But i don't think this trend can sustain for long , as a diesel price rise seems eminent too..
I think this reflects public paranoia about petrol prices more than maturing of the market. The Indian market cannot suddenly mature overnight!! Any such change would have followed a trend over time, maybe years.
Moreover, a change in purchasing power would reflect across segments. Thus, all A segment cars should witness a fall is sales that commensurate with a rise in B segment hatches. just comparing the Swift with the Alto as one off models cannot capture such a market change.
Diesel is the way to go for auto manufacturers. 75% of total Swift sales come from diesel variants. Although the news of deregulation of diesel is doing the rounds it is highly unlikely that diesel used for automobiles will be deregulated completely as it will have a cascading effect on the prices of all commodities. Just imagine if Maruti launch the Wagon R/ Alto with a three cylinder 1 liter diesel motor, their sales will go through the roof. Hyundai i10 kappa2 will be one product which will take the maximum hit from Swift's sales as it does not have a diesel option while all the leading manufacturers have a diesel option in the segment.
A different view.
And, someone was talking about private cars not being a significant consumer of subsidized diesel.
3 out of 4 and being the fastest growing model do not agree to these arguments. I am happy that the consumer is moving from "just take me somewhere" cars to "take me in comfort" cars. A welcome growth, but look at what this is going to do to the deficit. A simple math below.
approx the cars to 20 K. 3/4 of 20 K = 15 K. Kms per month on diesel (1500 pm approx, lower estimate), diesel consumption (assuming 18 kmpl) = 85 Lts per car/pm.
Added burdern = 85 * 15 K = 1245000 ltrs. deficit = 20 Rs per litre = 24900000pm. Which is 2,49,00,000 or 2.5 Crore per month from one model alone!
In the end the Swift D owner might not see this filling it up at the gas station, but indirectly the tax money will need to be diverted to fill this deficit!
I am happy that the Swift has taken the lead, but the type of growth is unhealthy!
I doubt this will remain as a trend.
The surge in Swift sales might also be because production and hence deliveries are now running full steam and clearing the backlog.
Given that March and April are on either sides of the beginning of a new financial year; I think sales of both these months can't really be considered as a trend.
Guys,
The real matter of discussion isn't Swift sales at the 19K level. It's done that before. I'm more concerned about why the Alto hit 17K, which is 40% lesser than what it usually manages.
My best guess is there has been some hit in production, over delivery, scheduled plant maintenance or supply issue. 17K Altos is a peculiar month and chances are, an exception rather than the rule. As Amitayu posted, the market cannot mature overnight!
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