[kenneyjacob]

Was feeling bored last weekend, so decided to do some mischief. Wrote a small program to scrap data from OLX, it was a little tricky as they have some good counter measures set-up to prevent such attempts. Anyways I got 1000 records and I plotted a graph using it. This explains how the listed price of a second hand Honda city varies with the year of manufacturing.

BTW let me know if you want the same analysis done on other cars too

[GTO]

Nice one, thanks.

It's generally best to buy 3 - 4 year old cars. These are the ones that have depreciated heavily, while the well-maintained ones have the potential to feel / drive like new. Some of the 3 year old cars might have some warranty also left.

[alpha1]

Lovely!
But how do you know that the prices on OLX are the actual rates at which deals are closed?

[RaSing]

It would be nice of you can give this graph for some of the other popular cars like Swift, i20, Verna,Safari etc.

[fash_1]

Nice! The above graph, is that for a particular city or all India?

[srs_shetty87]

Originally Posted by alpha1

Lovely!
But how do you know that the prices on OLX are the actual rates at which deals are closed?

Umm. Need not be the actual prices, since he said the graph is based on a sample value of 1000 cars, i believe we can get a fair estimate 50k +/-.

The major part to add into the equation would be, which states are these cars being sold in, the variance will definitely be something to consider from North to South.

kenneyjacob, if you could, why not try and extract for all possible cars , it will be very welcome by all.

[kenneyjacob]

Originally Posted by GTO

Nice one, thanks. It's generally best to buy 3 - 4 year old cars. These are the ones that have depreciated heavily.

The dip in prices is pretty evident in the first 2,3 years. Many sweet deals are in this area.

Originally Posted by alpha1

Lovely!But how do you know that the prices on OLX are the actual rates at which deals are closed?

In most cases the sale price will be lower than whats listed on OLX, but it gives you a fair idea especially if you are planning to list your car for sale. With this I found a Honda city, pretty well altered with racing seats, steering, gear knob, expensive music system, all geeky meters, FFE, lighting everywhere.. all for 3L (listed price)

Originally Posted by RaSing

It would be nice of you can give this graph for some of the other popular cars like Swift, i20, Verna,Safari etc.

Ill run the code again for take data for a few more cars. Right now I am trying to get a better visualization that can include the KMS run also. Then we will get a much better idea of how prices vary based on year as well as KMS.

Originally Posted by fash_1

Nice! The above graph, is that for a particular city or all India?

This is for entire India. I can get data for a state or a city. Will update this thread with more data soon.

[wilful]

Originally Posted by kenneyjacob

Ill run the code again for take data for a few more cars. Right now I am trying to get a better visualization that can include the KMS run also. Then we will get a much better idea of how prices vary based on year as well as KMS.

This is for entire India. I can get data for a state or a city. Will update this thread with more data soon.

A good deed kennyjacob - nay a noble deed! Very useful. Thanks for the effort taken.
Just wondering whether www.cartrade.com would give you a better idea/spread - being an automobile specific site.

[kenneyjacob]

Originally Posted by wilful

Just wondering whether www.cartrade.com would give you a better idea/spread - being an automobile specific site.

Ill try collecting data from this site. Right now I am wondering why these sites are not doing these kind of analysis. If any of the admins for such sites are reading this let me be your consultant

Below is the graph for KMS Run Vs Price for the same honda city data. The red line is the regression line which is like the best fit curve for all the given data. Google for more details on regression.

From the graph we can clearly see how the price drop for the initial KMs and then how it stays pretty stable even though the odometer runs.

[ani_meher]

Thanks for the interesting chart and your efforts! It gives nice visual aid to understand depreciation and evaluation of City as it gets older.

The outliers are quite evident. Especially in the 2014 year where the car prices start from 4 Lakhs! Shows that there are scammers/liers posting an ad for hooking up a client to their fishing net.

[Roshith]

Interesting analysis Kenney. Can you do the same for two wheelers too?

[rajshenoy]

I feel you should take all samples from same city. Prices of used cars vary across cities and states too. Here in Bangalore and Karnataka in general we pay so much road tax on new cars that the used cars typically sell at a premium as compared to other cities (as much as 10% + )

[kenneyjacob]

Originally Posted by Roshith

Interesting analysis Kenney. Can you do the same for two wheelers too?

Yes, I can do this for any item listed. For which which vehicle do you want this analysis done ?

[2000rpm]

@Kenneyjacob: Are you sure that Team-bhp and yourself are not legally vulnerable by this act??

Had this been US, I am sure we wouldnt be discussing this openly on a forum like this before being arrested.

[kenneyjacob]

Originally Posted by 2000rpm

@Kenneyjacob: Are you sure that Team-bhp and yourself are not legally vulnerable by this act??

Had this been US, I am sure we wouldnt be discussing this openly on a forum like this before being arrested.

What law did I break exactly ? I just used open data on the site to come up with an analysis. How can that be wrong ?