[volkman10]

With Fuel prices sky rocketing and show no signs of any relief and with no alternate fuel yet to the mass market segments, Petrol cars have gained further traction as the differential to diesel is an all time new low.


Petrol cars now constitute to 61% of the total sales.




Company wise sales, fuel -split: Mahindra at risk?



ALL MODELS:




Vehicle size (length) distribution

As size increases gradually, diesel becomes the obvious choice as a fuel.




Body Style distribution - Some follow the availability of cars in petrol and driven by the manufacturer's pull( Brezza and S cross)

-In 2020, when BS6 emission norms will come into force, diesel engine for hatchback seems to become a passé.

-With quite a few introduction of moncoque UV/crossover, petrol penetration is gaining strength. Petrol mix will become stronger, if, Maruti brings in petrol powered Brezza and S-Cross.



Chassis distribution

For heavy ladder chassis, diesel is still a preferred fuel.



Petrol Engine size distribution

- Data is highly skewed in favor of 1200 cc engine. India is small car country and lower tax rate (as a government policy) on petrol engine upto the size of 1200cc has made it the most sold engine.




Diesel Engine size distribution

-With all diesel Maruti cars running on Fiat made engine, 1250cc engine skews the engine size distribution. Nevertheless, larger diesel engine are not going out of favor for the large UV any time soon (read-post 2020). However, post 2020, diesel engine component manufacturer might face strong headwind from shift in demand for petrol engine – it is time to diversify to mitigate risk.




Source: Autopunditz

[fiat_tarun]

Thanks a lot for this post. Very informative.

While most of the numbers make sense to me, the one stand out is the Polo for which the split of 80:20 in favour of petrol ! The regular Polo 1.2L & now 1L engines are not impressive at all and it looks like most Polo buyers just want a Polo and aren't really bothered about the engine, etc.

[rajamuneeb]

Originally Posted by fiat_tarun

Thanks a lot for this post. Very informative.

While most of the numbers make sense to me, the one stand out is the Polo for which the split of 80:20 in favour of petrol ! The regular Polo 1.2L & now 1L engines are not impressive at all and it looks like most Polo buyers just want a Polo and aren't really bothered about the engine, etc.

It could be the other way round too. Most of the polo buyers are buying the GT TSI. Would be interesting to see how many GT's are sold among the total polo sales number. 😊

[GTO]

Amazing, fascinating, insightful sales figures, Volkman10! Many thanks for sharing. Such stuff makes me drool.

Some observations:

- Maruti - some surprises, some as expected. Majority of petrol sales will be the case due to their entry-level lineup of petrol-only cars (Alto, WagonR, Celerio etc.) and the fact that their 1.2L petrol is such a jewel of an engine. I also know Maruti pushes their petrols more than the diesel on which it has to pay a royalty (petrol is more profitable for them).

- Honda: Not bad. Just 1 diesel engine garners a third of sales. Was late to the market, yet clearly worth the effort.

- Very surprised with VW as, for most of their cars, the diesel is the clear superior. But this is down to the entry-level 1.2L in the Polo which we can see accounts for 80% of Polo sales.

- Renault has a majority of petrol sales because of the Kwid. Remove the Kwid and the scale will tilt the other way (Duster).

- Tata: Again a surprise as Tata has been known for its diesel engines (just like Mahindra). All down to the Tiago & Tigor. Delete them and diesel is a clear majority for Tata.

- Ford: Not surprised, but their % of petrols will increase with time as their new triple-cylinders are really competent.

- Jeep . The petrol pales in front of the outstanding diesel. It's all down to the Petrol AT; once the Diesel AT comes, things might change.

- Anyone could have guessed Toyota's diesels forming a majority of the numbers. UV sales at the higher end (Innova, Fortuner) and taxi sales at the lower end (Etios).

Originally Posted by rajamuneeb

Most of the polo buyers are buying the GT TSI.

Polo GTs have done better than expected, but they still account for a small % of total Polo sales. The market for a hatchback costing 11 - 12 lakhs OTR isn't exactly big.

[jailbird_fynix]

Some people who buy diesel cars might say, "Should've gotten the petrol version- the difference between fuel rates is decreasing day by day."
Although 'Kitna deta hai' is the primary concern here, one can also state NVH, maintenance issues & yet-to-be implicated government norms on diesel cars as reasons. But at the end of the day, if you want that bigger car that needs to perform daily long runs - you simply buy a diesel.

[locusjag]

Of the lot, it is not surprising to see a diesel-heavy Mahindra portfolio.

However, as we have recently seen, Mahindra is developing petrol versions of their major models - XUV 5OO, Scorpio, TUV 3OO & KUV 1OO. This is since once the BS6 Auto manufacturer norms take effect from June 2020 nation-wide, prices are bound to go up for all vehicles and they'll rocket up for BS6 diesel cars in particular.

If I remember right, BS6 diesel engines upto 1.5 Litre will cost ~Rs.1 lac more and anything bigger will cost ~Rs1.5-2 lacs more. So post June 2020, we will most probably see price elasticity kicking in with the 1.5 Litre and lesser diesel cars since that's the price-conscious mass market segment. With the bigger engines, I don't know if many will take up petrol XUV 5OOs which return 8 Kmpl of petrol...my guess is that high-end diesel car buyers will keep buying them since they will have a lot of money rolling in the deep ends of their pockets.

https://www.financialexpress.com/aut...anges/1262891/

Utility vehicles major Mahindra & Mahindra is developing petrol engines for its product line-up to counter drop in sales of diesel models over the last few years due to high taxation. In its Annual Report for 2017-18, the Mumbai-based auto major said it is also working towards building cost-effective BS-VI compliant solutions for its diesel engine portfolio.

With BS-VI emission norms slated to come into effect from April 1, 2020, prices of both petrol and diesel vehicles are set to go up. However, pricing pressure on diesel vehicles is expected to be higher which could further impact sales of such vehicles in the domestic market.

M&M sells various SUVs including XUV 500, Scorpio, TUV 300 and KUV 100 in the domestic market and the company has been in the process of introducing petrol variants across its product portfolio.

[swami69]

Originally Posted by jailbird_fynix

Some people who buy diesel cars might say, "Should've gotten the petrol version- the difference between fuel rates is decreasing day by day."
Although 'Kitna deta hai' is the primary concern here, one can also state NVH, maintenance issues & yet-to-be implicated government norms on diesel cars as reasons. But at the end of the day, if you want that bigger car that needs to perform daily long runs - you simply buy a diesel.

Right, majority of the mass market, lower priced small cars are made in Petrol only. Also, the fact that, people think, oh ok the price difference is only 8 rupees and why not take the Petrol itself and that is what is predominantly driving the market. But, when i factually see, in spite of lower refinement, NVH, the Diesel still has advantages even in a smaller car. i.e.,
The Diesel fuel itself is more efficient in returning better mileage litre to litre
Then, the advantage with torque for city runs
and also, whatever difference in pricing adds up to its advantage
So, i would say Diesel still seems to be value in smaller engines too.

Swami

[OrangeCar]

Was always curious about the 2.7L Innova Crysta petrol's sales.

In the previous gen (non-Crysta) Innova, the number of petrol cars sold was generally 1-3 petrol cars - per year!. Most petrol cars were for some Embassy or some sort of leased option. That's 1-3 (and never more than single digits) unit sales per year in Innova's total sales of around 75,000 units per year.

And in the Crysta suffix, 1% petrol sales is huge! 1% of apporx 75,000 Crysta sales per year is approx 750 units! The new 2.7 petrol (new to India!) seems to be doing 100X better than the older version.

[aniyo]

The split is despite the tax benefit for 1.5 diesel. Assuming we had same limit for petrol i.e. 1.5L for petrol I bet petrol sales would have been higher.

Jazz/WRV would have been a hit with 1.5L and the Abarth would have been 60-80K cheaper and may be i20 would have done better with a 1.4 petrol.

Diesel is a dirty fuel on many counts. I hate that people who buy diesel cars have a lower tax on fuel which really does not help the country. I understand that the transport industry needs the lower tax but not the private owner for sure.

Government must enforce some sort of diesel tax assuming that the car in private ownership will run about 1Lac Km and tax accordingly.

[RaghuVis]

Superb analysis and fascinating figures. Thanks a lot Volkman10.

I have tried to capture these numbers segment wise for more clarity.

Segment A - Petrol all the way and not many surprise here.

Segment B1 - Only Tiago is available in Diesel here though not much in numbers.

Segment B2 - Leaning heavily towards petrol though some surprises. Although less in numbers, bolt almost fully selling in diesel. Completely into Taxi's I assume. Same would be the case with Liva I guess with Liva cross selling in petrol. Are there no Jazz diesel versions available?

Segment C1 - Once dominated by Diesel, tide is slowly turning around. Amaze number will be significantly different now with it's Diesel AT selling like hot cakes. Very surprised to see that Xcent sells more in petrol. Always assumed Xcent is lapped up almost fully by Taxi segment for those who cannot afford Etios. I guess Zest is taking all those sales. Also suprising to see Ameo petrol numbers.

Segment C2 - Currently the hottest segment. Majority sales are happening in Diesel. Change in tilt to petrol is a bit slow here. MSIL badly needs to come up with a petrol engine for Brezza. Ecosport/Nexon/WRV all are selling petrol in good numbers. If you take the numbers of July, close to 4000 units of Petrol were sold by these 3 in petrol versions. MSIL can easily get a good part of that. Another surprise here is Vento which is selling almost half of them in petrol. But the biggest surprise in this segment is BRV which sells a whopping 58% in petrol! I-vtec Magic I guess.

Segment D1 - Diesel all the way from here on. But Octavia surprises here with 61% sales in Petrol. vRS Why is Hexa shown as 100% Diesel. I think the data here is wrong.

Segment D2 - Again Diesel all the way here except for Skoda Superb. People are getting tired waiting for a diesel superb I guess.

Segment Utility -The commercial segment of passenger vehicles and as expected, Diesel is the preferred choice. Why can't Go+ diesel be introduced. They can take the diesel engine from Renault or Nissan right?

[autobahnjpr]

I guess we should also consider CNG as an alternate fuel because a considerable segment of personal and entire public segment of cars sold use CNG in Delhi-NCR, Mumbai and other cities where CNG is available. So, the percentages of petrol can get split between pure petrol and CNG.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by RaghuVis

Why is Hexa shown as 100% Diesel

Because there is no petrol option itself. Hexa is only powered by the 2.2L diesel engine, available in both manual and automatic options.

[AutoSphere]

Fantastic analysis, Volkman10..

Many of the Uber/Ola cabs that I have traveled by are on CNG and I am not sure if CNG vehicles have been included under petrol in your figures.

So if the petrol-diesel differential narrows or goes the other way, then at-least the taxi segment may swing further towards CNG ??

[OrangeCar]

I have always been curious about Innova Crysta's 2.7L petrol variant sales.

The old gen Innova's (non-Crysta) petrol sales were abysmal. They sold 1-3 units a year (and almost always in single digits in the best of the years). That's 1-3 units out of a total of approx. 75,000 units a year. These units mostly came from Embassy sales or some form of leasing option.

Now, Crysta petrol variant sells 1% of approx 75,000 units per annum! That's around 750 units a year. That seems a 100X times the previous gen. This is phenomenal to say the least.

[R-Six]

Interesting analogy! Pretty kicked to look at these numbers.

In the sub 4m segment, it looks like Petrol is still ruling the market. I guess it has more to do with the Maruti siblings having the monopoly.

If we look at the segment wide calculation for Sedans, it is almost neck to neck. 53% vs 47%. That is quite close. It is pretty evident that the market is shifting towards the petrol lately. It might have to do with all the uncertainty around the diesel cars in our country. Also, those upgrading from their first car is might be preferring to stick to the petrol variants due to the price difference.

For the Fortuner and Innova, why are they even having a Petrol variant? With just 1% of their overall sales being the Petrol version, how are they managing the production line? Are they like, manufactured on demand only after there is a booking?