Sales numbers till Apr 2020 will be very similar. After BS6 norms kick-in, there will be disruption. The biggest hit will be taken by the long time king of the market - Maruti. Still, no one can shake them in the small petrol car space (A, B1). Alto, S-presso, Wagon-R, Celerio space will be ruled by Maruti. Interesting thing is, the largest segment today is B2, C2, C1 segments. Maruti has its top-selling cars in these segments today. It will take a big hit on these segments with BS6.
Hyundai has safeguarded its interest with BS6 Diesel engines. It is also in the best position to take advantage of Maruti's handicap on Diesels because they have the second-widest service network after Maruti. Not to mention, Hyundai has held its market share over the years steadily, even if they haven't grown from there. This stability will only help them grow further in a post-BS6 environment.
Tata is breaking new technology records. Their cars are phenomenally improved on quality, new-tech, safety, and reliability. Nexon, Altroz, Harrier will be their growth engines. These aspects make them poised for long-term growth - if they fix sales and service networks and ensure a healthy cost-of-ownership to its customers.
Mahindra has given its fair share of innovative products. With the impressive 5* rated XUV300 and new XUV500 on the horizon, Mahindra's outlook is good. Mahindra's diesel engine prowess will also come in handy after BS6 kicks in. Somehow, they are falling short of wow-factor. They have to fix it ASAP. They have to extract the benefits of Ford JV and bring out winning products.
Sad to see all Japanese carmakers (except Maruti) performing so dull. Nissan Kicks barely doing a few hundred sales is really unfortunate. It is a great product in the wrong hands. Toyota has tested Indian consumers' patience so much without launching exciting products. Yaris even though a competent car, it was not a product for 2019. Sedans were declining and Toyota knew it. Honda is totally lost - doesn't know what it is doing. They have lost the edge of tech innovation and even design. With the cheap Brio platform and age-old City platform, you can only do so much. HR-V launch in 2018-19 could've saved them a bit, now even that segment is crowded. Kia filled in the blanks left by Honda.
Koreans are doing good. Hyundai is doing fine and Kia is scaling new heights. Their cars are advanced, feature-rich and relevant to the current aspirations of Indian car buyers. Japs are already down, they just have to fend the Chinese competition. Seltos has set the C2 segment on fire. Carnival looks promising.
Renault has to reinvent itself, Kwid platform cars may make them survive, but it cannot grow them. Indian car buyers are looking for good B2, C1, C2 cars. Renault has none. They have spectacularly failed to capitalize on the success of Duster. Captur has bombed.
VW/Skoda have shown their next-gen platforms in Autoshow. We have to see the launches to say what can be its future.
New Euro carmakers Citroen, Peugeot is expected to enter India soon. If they play a fair game, they might succeed. But if they look at India with arrogance and price their cars like Merc/BMW etc, they are doomed. Or if they launch low quality/cheap cars, they are doomed again. There are risks and a price to pay to enter a new market. I hope they realize that.
The electric segment's growth will be painfully slow. But here is the thing, who-ever garners a healthy market-share now, will rule the electric segment for the next 20 years or so. Because electric becoming mainstream is a reality, not only in India but globally. It may be slow, but it will happen for sure. I have heard that the Japanese are betting huge on Hydrogen Fuel Cells as opposed to electric. Fuel cell tech is going to grave. This is the Swiss watch industry's quartz crisis moment for Japanese automakers. FYI: Swiss watch industry denounced Quartz technology and continued to make fine mechanical watches back in the 70s, while japanese Quartz took the industry by storm. Once Swiss businesses went to ICU, they realized and accepted Quartz in their business. This is called
Quartz crisis.