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Old 12th February 2020, 13:10   #31
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Will be interesting to see the number of Dzire, Baleno, Swift, Brezza sell once only the petrol variants are available thanks to BS6.
Yes. If I were Maruti MD, I would be a very worried man. Swift Baleno may not be much affected. I mostly see petrol variants of these two. It's the Dzire which sells mostly in diesel and of course, Brezza 100 per cent diesel. Will Maruti's 50 plus per cent market share tumble down to 40?

Beats me why they couldn't ready BS6 engines. If a lazy Honda could, what stopped Maruti? It's not like GOI announced BS6 suddenly.
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Old 12th February 2020, 13:12   #32
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Economy being in the tank is not helping a lot of automakers. Plus the policymakers uncertainty on the rules are also hitting it hard.

BS6: BS6 being implemented in Apr but there is a lot of rumors that in the future you cannot sell your old BS4 cars. Talk to ten guys on the street and thats what they say.

Scrappage policy: Old cars cannot have their FC done and also the age number is being vague depending on the news paper you read. People have a opinion that cars older than 10 years will have to be scrapped. Read any article and the headline will say "Scrappage policy to be introduced soon" but the article will not have any specifics on - Private or Taxis, Commercial vehicles, older than 10 years or 15 and lastly only limited to Delhi NCR or all of india.

Electric cars: Lastly one famous Bureaucrat mentioned - No diesel cars after 2025 or 2030. Like do you really think, looking from todays point of view a 2030 complete ban on IC engines in india is even possible? My hometown has faced month long power cuts, so before people in power shoot from their mouth they have to think how the market would respond to such statements.

Even articles on team bhp on these three points are pretty vague. So unless you need a car desperately, there is no reason to get one till this dust settles.

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Old 12th February 2020, 13:14   #33
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Beats me why they couldn't ready BS6 engines. If a lazy Honda could, what stopped Maruti? It's not like GOI announced BS6 suddenly.
Diesel engines was never their strength and the national engine doing duties on their top selling models was provided by FIAT, which decided against upgrading the 1.3 unit to BS6.
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Old 12th February 2020, 13:27   #34
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Diesel engines was never their strength and the national engine doing duties on their top selling models was provided by FIAT, which decided against upgrading the 1.3 unit to BS6.
I know it's Fiat engines under their hood but my point is, despite being Fiat's no.1 customer in India, Maruti couldn't prevail over Fiat to upgrade to BS6. Which brings me to second question, what will Fiat be selling in future? Their Palios and Lineas are gone. How long can they sustain by selling just Compass which is also under threat from new kids on the block?
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Old 12th February 2020, 14:04   #35
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Maruti and Hyundai have filled the top 20 spots so densely that only 1 entry fro Mahindra and two from Tata are there. This is pure Dominance.
Also, alto is no more the top seller. Top seller is Dzire. Shows how the preference of Indian buyer has changed from buying entry level hatch to compact sedan.
Products which are in tune with market needs and have a USP sell well, even if from a new manufacturer or a non market leader.
Hector from MG
Triber from Renault
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Old 12th February 2020, 21:12   #36
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

How come there are 86 Tiguans in here? I was looking to buy one last month and tried calling few dealers here in Bangalore and never got back any response. Isn't that means stock is done. Was looking to get a deal on BS6 but no luck.



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Old 12th February 2020, 22:44   #37
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Maruti and Hyundai have filled the top 20 spots so densely that only 1 entry fro Mahindra and two from Tata are there. This is pure Dominance.
Also, alto is no more the top seller. Top seller is Dzire. Shows how the preference of Indian buyer has changed from buying entry level hatch to compact
Dzire also is a popular cab variant. So it may also mean that cab sales are going up. I believe we don't have the split up of commercial vs private vehicles.
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Old 12th February 2020, 22:49   #38
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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... Which brings me to second question, what will Fiat be selling in future? Their Palios and Lineas are gone. How long can they sustain by selling just Compass which is also under threat from new kids on the block?
One Hit Wonder. Rinse and Repeat.

That's the Fiat mantra.

I think this time around, Harrier, with it's upgrades, may give a tough competition to Jeep. They'll slowly dawdle till Compass reaches a terrible sales mark and then introduce another product and forget all about the Compass.
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Old 13th February 2020, 09:50   #39
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

FCA never learns, do they? The last time I saw an interview of FCA India's new boss, Partha Datta by Autocar, all he kept going gaga about was that Jeep needs to stay true to their DNA. He also mentioned that they are also looking to expand the Jeep portfolio into other segments and that the Fiat brand is very much alive in India. But hey if all that were true then where are the cars? Where is the Renegade for starters? And if Fiat was alive why didn't they launch the Argo or say the Panda instead of stopping all production? If anyone wants to do a case study on how "NOT" to sell beautiful, well engineered, robust and safe cars, they surely need to read the story of FCA in India.

On a side note, pardon my ignorance but I noticed a -1 against the Tata Safari/Storme sales. What does the negative figure indicate?
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Old 13th February 2020, 10:13   #40
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Sales numbers till Apr 2020 will be very similar. After BS6 norms kick-in, there will be disruption. The biggest hit will be taken by the long time king of the market - Maruti. Still, no one can shake them in the small petrol car space (A, B1). Alto, S-presso, Wagon-R, Celerio space will be ruled by Maruti. Interesting thing is, the largest segment today is B2, C2, C1 segments. Maruti has its top-selling cars in these segments today. It will take a big hit on these segments with BS6.

Hyundai has safeguarded its interest with BS6 Diesel engines. It is also in the best position to take advantage of Maruti's handicap on Diesels because they have the second-widest service network after Maruti. Not to mention, Hyundai has held its market share over the years steadily, even if they haven't grown from there. This stability will only help them grow further in a post-BS6 environment.

Tata is breaking new technology records. Their cars are phenomenally improved on quality, new-tech, safety, and reliability. Nexon, Altroz, Harrier will be their growth engines. These aspects make them poised for long-term growth - if they fix sales and service networks and ensure a healthy cost-of-ownership to its customers.

Mahindra has given its fair share of innovative products. With the impressive 5* rated XUV300 and new XUV500 on the horizon, Mahindra's outlook is good. Mahindra's diesel engine prowess will also come in handy after BS6 kicks in. Somehow, they are falling short of wow-factor. They have to fix it ASAP. They have to extract the benefits of Ford JV and bring out winning products.

Sad to see all Japanese carmakers (except Maruti) performing so dull. Nissan Kicks barely doing a few hundred sales is really unfortunate. It is a great product in the wrong hands. Toyota has tested Indian consumers' patience so much without launching exciting products. Yaris even though a competent car, it was not a product for 2019. Sedans were declining and Toyota knew it. Honda is totally lost - doesn't know what it is doing. They have lost the edge of tech innovation and even design. With the cheap Brio platform and age-old City platform, you can only do so much. HR-V launch in 2018-19 could've saved them a bit, now even that segment is crowded. Kia filled in the blanks left by Honda.

Koreans are doing good. Hyundai is doing fine and Kia is scaling new heights. Their cars are advanced, feature-rich and relevant to the current aspirations of Indian car buyers. Japs are already down, they just have to fend the Chinese competition. Seltos has set the C2 segment on fire. Carnival looks promising.

Renault has to reinvent itself, Kwid platform cars may make them survive, but it cannot grow them. Indian car buyers are looking for good B2, C1, C2 cars. Renault has none. They have spectacularly failed to capitalize on the success of Duster. Captur has bombed.

VW/Skoda have shown their next-gen platforms in Autoshow. We have to see the launches to say what can be its future.

New Euro carmakers Citroen, Peugeot is expected to enter India soon. If they play a fair game, they might succeed. But if they look at India with arrogance and price their cars like Merc/BMW etc, they are doomed. Or if they launch low quality/cheap cars, they are doomed again. There are risks and a price to pay to enter a new market. I hope they realize that.

The electric segment's growth will be painfully slow. But here is the thing, who-ever garners a healthy market-share now, will rule the electric segment for the next 20 years or so. Because electric becoming mainstream is a reality, not only in India but globally. It may be slow, but it will happen for sure. I have heard that the Japanese are betting huge on Hydrogen Fuel Cells as opposed to electric. Fuel cell tech is going to grave. This is the Swiss watch industry's quartz crisis moment for Japanese automakers. FYI: Swiss watch industry denounced Quartz technology and continued to make fine mechanical watches back in the 70s, while japanese Quartz took the industry by storm. Once Swiss businesses went to ICU, they realized and accepted Quartz in their business. This is called Quartz crisis.

Last edited by manjunathkl : 13th February 2020 at 10:33.
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Old 13th February 2020, 10:33   #41
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Scrappage policy: Old cars cannot have their FC done and also the age number is being vague depending on the news paper you read. People have a opinion that cars older than 10 years will have to be scrapped. Read any article and the headline will say "Scrappage policy to be introduced soon" but the article will not have any specifics on - Private or Taxis, Commercial vehicles, older than 10 years or 15 and lastly only limited to Delhi NCR or all of india.

Electric cars: Lastly one famous Bureaucrat mentioned - No diesel cars after 2025 or 2030. Like do you really think, looking from todays point of view a 2030 complete ban on IC engines in india is even possible? My hometown has faced month long power cuts, so before people in power shoot from their mouth they have to think how the market would respond to such statements.
Very valid points I must say.

There is no denying that personal mobility is required for economic growth as well as the other way around. We in India has extremely low numbers of car ownership and therefore a scrappage policy makes no sense, fixing up cars and using them is environmentally friendly as well. (This somehow escapes the folks who only care about tail pipe emissions).

Electric cars are a novelty, it's a convenience feature , no gears , silent and no need to visit fuel station, cool then but not a solution to a country that relies on fossil fuels for 80% of electricity generation.

Contrary to popular belief there is no dearth of electricity generation, our electricity plants are running at almost half their capacity due to lack of demand, so now you know why electricity ministry will be happy to promote electric cars!!

This idiotic move will ensure that all components manufacturers in India will shut shop (opposite of what happens in China), transportation sector will collapse and the ambulance that is carrying our economy to the ICU will stop midway , rest for 40 minutes for a quick charge.

GOI if you are reading this, scrap BS6/extend and make cars and vehicles cheaper to buy and run, you will do yourself a favor.
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Old 13th February 2020, 14:27   #42
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Very valid points I must say.

There is no denying that personal mobility is required for economic growth as well as the other way around. We in India has extremely low numbers of car ownership and therefore a scrappage policy makes no sense, fixing up cars and using them is environmentally friendly as well. (This somehow escapes the folks who only care about tail pipe emissions).

This idiotic move will ensure that all components manufacturers in India will shut shop (opposite of what happens in China), transportation sector will collapse and the ambulance that is carrying our economy to the ICU will stop midway , rest for 40 minutes for a quick charge.

GOI if you are reading this, scrap BS6/extend and make cars and vehicles cheaper to buy and run, you will do yourself a favor.
Valid points. I have a 16 year old car as a daily driver and the tail pipe emissions are lesser than a cab or a cement truck which is less than 5 years old. The scrappage policy should be based on vehicle condition and emissions rather than just age.

Auto components will switch to the EV bandawagon is the guess by economists, but the tax collections of the govt will reduce due to lower consumption of fuel which is heavily taxed. Double edged sword.

Tata Altroz: 4500 units is impressive! I hope it goes higher and can compete with the Balenos of the world.

Kona: Good demand for a limited numbers car. People will buy a product if it satisfies their need. Range anxiety is limited with this vehicle.

When is the numbers of the EV from MG and Tata expected to hit the road? Would love to see the numbers month on month and check the impact a EV would have on this market.

Maddy
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Old 13th February 2020, 15:03   #43
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

So finally the Innova is feeling the heat from competition. For more than 10yrs now I have felt that the Innova is way overpriced for what it offers, it was selling just because of the big T badge in front.
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Old 13th February 2020, 17:46   #44
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

Is the difference between Kia and MG (which were the most fiercely branded car makers last year...) the average Indians connect with 'Tiger Shroff' and 'Benedict Cumberbatch'?

Honestly I needed to google who Benedict was last year because I didnt know, not kidding.

What happened to MG Hector?!
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Old 13th February 2020, 18:17   #45
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Default Re: January 2020 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis

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Is the difference between Kia and MG (which were the most fiercely branded car makers last year...) the average Indians connect with 'Tiger Shroff' and 'Benedict Cumberbatch'?
Do you think Tiger Shroff contributed anything to the Seltos sale?
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