[JoshMachine]

Originally Posted by prasanna.vps

Well, if everyone is in the same boat, then how come others do not seem to be having these humongous wait times?

The big daddy of them all - Maruti, is also hit by semiconductor shortage and is likely to cut production by 30-40% in August itself (source). Expect waiting times to increase across the board as the festive season kicks in next couple of months.

However, in the meanwhile, Mr. Chandrasekaran (Chairman, Tata Sons) has been quoted saying they want to seize the promise of high-tech manufacturing of electronics, precision manufacturing, assembly and testing and semiconductors in the medium term (source)
And they already have an in-house manufacturing facility at Hosur, which they will rapidly want to scale up.

[gururajrv]

Considering the cars are partially manufactured and stored, will Mahindra or manufacturers have any patience to conduct QC’s through and through once they install the necessary parts unlike in a conventional manufacturing process? Because, the demand would be high and manufacturers would be under duress to send the vehicles over to dealers. I’m guessing a lot many customers will face QC issues with these unfinished cars.

Aside this fact, if there’s 8000-10000 Xuv 700’s lying around in Mahindra’s backyard that are essentially half baked, and just 500 units of them would receive the ECU’s, math against the ratio is a bit concerning isn’t it? Is Mahindra rushing the launch despite knowing the chip crisis? Hope things settle down soon enough for a good car like XUV to get what it deserves in the market!

[prasanna.vps]

Originally Posted by JoshMachine

The big daddy of them all - Maruti, is also hit by semiconductor shortage and is likely to cut production by 30-40% in August itself (source). Expect waiting times to increase across the board as the festive season kicks in next couple of months.

wonder what is stopping all these people from releasing a verison without the ICE, it can be installed as after market and will reduce the ex-showroom price and clear their stocks. Me thinks!

[Nithesh_M]

Originally Posted by prasanna.vps

wonder what is stopping all these people from releasing a verison without the ICE, it can be installed as after market and will reduce the ex-showroom price and clear their stocks. Me thinks!

Its not just ICE. The ECU and other electrical gadgets all face the brunt of the shortage.

[prasanna.vps]

Originally Posted by Nithesh_M

Its not just ICE. The ECU and other electrical gadgets all face the brunt of the shortage.

Then maybe source compatible ECUs from RD and other companies tune it higher and rake in more profits. Pure enthusiast version without any frills, low volumes but will keep the cash registers ringing.

Time to be disruptive and win the market, wake up OEMs!

[dr_TJ]

Originally Posted by prasanna.vps

Then maybe source compatible ECUs from RD and other companies tune it higher and rake in more profits. Pure enthusiast version without any frills, low volumes but will keep the cash registers ringing.

Time to be disruptive and win the market, wake up OEMs!

Exactly my thought, All I want is a mechanical Thar, yes ESP, Rollover Mitigation, ABS, EBD, Hill Launch assist, Hill descent control etc is important, But I would prefer to get the Thar twin Air Locked (Both front and Back axles) instead of a BLD in front and MLD at the rear. I would happily get a Thar without the Touchscreen Infotainment and at a reduced price.

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by prasanna.vps

Then maybe source compatible ECUs from RD and other companies tune it higher and rake in more profits. Pure enthusiast version without any frills, low volumes but will keep the cash registers ringing.

Time to be disruptive and win the market, wake up OEMs!

If I assume you are talking about the same RD, then it isnt so easy for a company like M&M to integrate a different ECU into their existing network and sell the car to the customer. What RD manufactures is Piggyback ECUs and their only standalone ECU as per the website is meant for petrol engines.

If the whole process was so simple, then you would have had a bunch of other ECU suppliers as well who could pitch in. But given the situation and the need for thousands of parts, I dont think its even possible by smaller suppliers. Also, in times of the electronic component shortage, bigger vendors would have better sourcing capabilities and if they cant do it, forget the smaller ones.

[prasanna.vps]

Agree to your point, but OEMs just coming up with empty hands is also not a solution, if someone already has cars in yard built, they now have a chance to cash in, even if the product is inferior. Telling everyone "I am not producing vehicles and its <XXX> fault" will not help the topline or bottomline.

On the flip-side this is the time used car market needs to rise up, with more organised players coming in with more transparent processes. Seeing the exact opposite, used cars guys are becoming even more atrocious!

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by prasanna.vps

Agree to your point, but OEMs just coming up with empty hands is also not a solution, if someone already has cars in yard built, they now have a chance to cash in, even if the product is inferior. Telling everyone "I am not producing vehicles and its <XXX> fault" will not help the topline or bottomline.

No one wants to say so. But there is no other alternative. Every manufacturer would have done more research than a layman and thought about every possible alternative. They would have evaluated other vendors too if someone is able to supply and match the deficit and continued seamless production. But the situation is so bad that the possibilities are limited. Another aspect to consider is that ECU vendors would have international clientele and would be facing pressure from various sides. A premium car manufacturer can lure the vendor with higher money to make sure that they get the priority. At the same time, companies like Maruti attract vendors with insane volumes and vendors would not want to lose that. Hence, even in the coming months, it depends on how well Mahindra can negotiate to secure their share of the parts. That is also the case if in the last year the manufacturer had asked vendors to cut down production.

In simple words, it isnt practically possible to consider some aftermarket ECU to run your car. Hence lets not discuss that as an alternative.

[prasanna.vps]

Originally Posted by audioholic

In simple words, it isnt practically possible to consider some aftermarket ECU to run your car. Hence lets not discuss that as an alternative.

In similar simple words, a couple of years ago, a top management of the company said NO to laptops for their workers as productivity will be adversely impacted.

It was not only forced to provide 95% of the company workforce laptops but make sure that they reimburse they internet connectivity charges, all this in a matter of 4 weeks. Guess what, the company topline and bottomline have never been better.

Adversity is the mother of innovation, I for one work with supply chain closely for over 2 decades and understand the demand and supply very well.

I can understand 6 months, even a year of dealing with problems while formulating a solution. But this is like you got a warning 2 years back that ship is heading for an iceberg and all you could do was onboard new passengers hoping sun will just melt it down.

Tesla rewrote its whole software to get around the problem and they seem to be heading somewhere. Toyota had a different strategy to tackle the same, and this is published in Fortune magazine. Scaling up ECU building with right investments is not difficult in a 2 year horizon, the OEMs seems to have the attitude that this is an insurmountable problem, rather than seeing how can I be part of the solution. That is where my beef lies.

So, in simple words, I respectully agree to disagree! OEMs need to put on their thinking hats while pulling up their socks.

[msa.30789]

I would like to add a few points from what I heard from my relatives working with an automobile manufacturing plant in chennai.

Big global giants with huge presence and strength tide on this chip shortage and have booked in advance 1 year of chips for their demands. This includes even global smartphone companies and automobile companies also. One more stronger rival of his company has even bagged a bigger order from a tier 3 chip supplier from Malaysia, affecting his order. This has resulted in longer extended waiting period for specific brands, while some other brands have little waiting period.

But nevertheless, adding salt to the wound is the unexpected demand for Thar from Mahindra. I hope only 50% of those who have booked the Thar might have retained the booking even now. By having a full plant dedicated for Thar, its monthly sales has not crossed 5k units, even though the bookings have crossed more than a lakh.

An irony is that a friend of mine, who booked Seletos two months after I booked Marazzo, got his vehicle and I am still waiting for my vehicle.

[audioholic]

Originally Posted by prasanna.vps

a top management of the company said NO to laptops for their workers as productivity will be adversely impacted.

It was not only forced to provide 95% of the company workforce laptops but make sure that they reimburse they internet connectivity charges,

Adversity is the mother of innovation, I for one work with supply chain closely

Tesla rewrote its whole software to get around the problem and they seem to be heading. Toyota had a different strategy to tackle the same, and this is published in Fortune magazine. Scaling up ECU building with right investments is not difficult in a 2 year horizon,

So, in simple words, I respectully agree to disagree! OEMs need to put on their thinking hats while pulling up their socks.

Let me bring up a few aspects to be considered since I very well belong to the automotive industry and am witnessing this issue first hand.

• Choosing vendors for automotive parts isn't like choosing a laptop v/s desktop or choosing Windows over Mac
• Automotive ECUs over these years have been built to be application specific and unlike some consumer electronics especially mobile phones running on android. Suppose you provide an android app as an offering on an Android device, its easier to switch the model of the android device if you face supply crunch with the existing brand. The same app will run on different hardware without much of a problem. Not the same for automotive systems. You cannot flash the executable of the XUV ECU into an RD ECU and call it innovation. Its nearly impossible.
• Mahindra would have developed it's ECUs over many years with it's vendors and for that to change isn't an overnight process or even say six months to a year. It will take much longer than that.
• In the supply chain industry, let's say you are used to managing apples and have established excellent processes and inventory management practices, its easy to extend that to another fruit, maybe oranges with limited changes. Try flashing an Airbag ECU executable into a transmission ECU and see if even the connections can be made, forget successful software flash. Thats the difference.
  

The same Toyota which has been appreciated will now cut production according to news articles. Given how Toyota focuses on minimal changes and maximum reliability, I can bet that they would be the last to think out of the box or look for alternate suppliers so easily. Tesla is on the other hand. Their electronic architecture is much simpler and they have lesser systems on board. Hence, that would give them the flexibility to swap functions from one system to another or try to completely substitute a system by making another system perform additional duties. Hence, while it's easy to comment on how the manufacturer should take aggressive actions and get things going, automotive ECUs aren't as simple as they sound.

My point is that, indeed Mahindra might have got into a royal mess and their forecasts were totally wrong. Other manufacturers might have fared better. But the solutions to their problems is not as simple as you claim.

[gopi_rm]

Originally Posted by audioholic

Hence, while it's easy to comment on how the manufacturer should take aggressive actions and get things going, automotive ECUs aren't as simple as they sound.

Agree completely. With a decade of experience in ECU development, I would say for complex controllers such as Engine ECU, ESP/ABS, ADAS, etc. it will take around 5 years (even if platform is available) to develop the HW and compatible SW from scratch to SoP. There are lot of analysis, redesigns, lab/vehicle validation, winter/summer testings, conformity to norms which are performed during the development. So it’s not easy to swap the chip or control unit from a different vendor that easily.

[prasanna.vps]

Originally Posted by audioholic

My point is that, indeed Mahindra might have got into a royal mess and their forecasts were totally wrong. Other manufacturers might have fared better. But the solutions to their problems is not as simple as you claim.

I see where this has got side tracked, I took an example of piggyback retrofits as an illustration, not as a full fledged solution and probably a bad one at that. I understand the complexities of designing ECUs, but mass producing a design is complex in this age of 3d printing and additive manufacturing?

Anyway us thinking about a solution sitting in a sofa or chair will not help. Like you rightly said the OEMs have screwed up and some much more than others. Will be interesting to see how this plays out now.

[gopi_rm]

Originally Posted by prasanna.vps

I understand the complexities of designing ECUs, but mass producing a design is complex in this age of 3d printing and additive manufacturing?

NXP: automotive chip shortage to continue

Lars Reger, NXP's chief technology officer:"It takes six to seven months to manufacture a semiconductor device - from the time you insert the wafer until a packaged and tested chip drops out of the back end. So until you reload the supply chain, it just takes that long. So that was the scenario we had last year: an empty supply chain followed by extremely high demand. "