[pqr]

2022: Indian passenger vehicle market fuel choice

Brand-wise volume



- The diesel mix was limited to 19% only.
- EV and strong-hybrid penetration reached 1.3% and 0.5%, respectively, in India.
- 11% CNG penetration was due to the availability of products in the hatchback, small sedan, and MUV categories.

Brand-wise market share



- Mahindra, Hyundai-Kia were in lead in diesel category. Tata and Toyota came next.
- Maruti dominates CNG category and Tata EV category.
- Toyota, with its strong hybrid technology, has gone mainstream.

Brand’s fuel product portfolio mix



- Maruti has substituted diesel sales volume with CNG, now offered nearly across its portfolio.
- Hyundai and Tata are also following the lead of Maruti in the CNG conversion drive.
- Mahindra, Jeep, Toyota, and Kia continue to have a diesel-heavy portfolio.
- Toyota has made some headway with its strong hybrid technology.
- Tata and MG were seen diversifying their product lines with the EV.

Body-style fuel mix



- SUVs still have a high diesel mix of 38%.
- CNG penetration is highest in the sedan category.
- Hatchbacks are predominantly run on petrol followed by CNG as a choice.
- Diesel options in the Toyota Innova and Kia Carens have kept the MUV diesel tally at 19%.

Size-wise fuel mix



- As car size increases, diesel becomes the preferred choice of fuel due to its higher efficiency and torque.

2022 : Diesel as a choice of fuel in the Indian passenger vehicle market



- Since the start of the BS6 era, diesel has gained volume and slightly more market share in 2022 compared to 2020 and 2021.
- However, volume has dropped by half since its peak in 2012.

2022 Diesel Product: Volume & Mix



- The best-selling diesel vehicle was the Mahindra Bolero, followed by the Hyundai Creta.
- Diesel was a popular fuel option in mid- to large-sized SUVs.



Diesel sedans and hatchbacks (except the Tata Altroz) will be off the shelf as soon as the BS6 RDE phase kicks in.

[fhdowntheline]

One chart is missing- the sales by fuel type for each OEM. The numbers are there, just need to be picturized I suppose. That will give a good idea of the brand strategy and customer perception.

[Shreyans_Jain]

Basically, apart from utilitarian vehicles like Bolero, diesel is now dead. The numbers from Hyundai and Kia will also see a massive dip once the 1.5 CRDI is discontinued and replaced by a petrol hybrid. It is only a matter of time. Innova has already gone hybrid, and so will the next generation Fortuner. That will leave the 2.0 MJD powered cars + the Mahindras powered by the mHawk as the only relevant diesel options by the next 12-18 months.

Nexon will be the sole small capacity diesel option that sees decent demand, in the near future.

We are on the cusp of a massive transformation in the passenger car market. With all kinds of regulations coming in, strong hybrid is the way to go.

[mk600]

Another interesting observation:

Japanese companies belting out Hybrid technology, but a perfect zero in EVs so far.
American, European companies staying with perfect zero in both EV and Hybrids so far.
Indian, Korean, Chinese companies putting out EV but not Hybrids yet.

[one-77]

Originally Posted by mk600

Another interesting observation:

Japanese companies belting out Hybrid technology, but a perfect zero in EVs so far.
American, European companies staying with perfect zero in both EV and Hybrids so far.
Indian, Korean, Chinese companies putting out EV but not Hybrids yet.

European manufacturers do sell their EVs here - Porsche Taycan, Merc EQ lineup, BMW iX, Audi eTron, Volvo XC40, Mini electric etc. It’s only that these are just halo products and aren’t made available in numbers large enough to warrant a mention. Except for the XC40 perhaps. VW-Škoda do have mainstream EVs, but don’t seem keen on bringing them here; in fact they aren’t keen on bringing any of their international models here at all.

The Japs of course are far behind in the EV game, except for Nissan. And Nissan is already gasping for breath in India.

For once I’m glad that it’s Tata that’s leading the EV race here.

[kronos596]

Thanks pqr for a great analysis.

With the market moving towards Petrols in a big way, I am curious about how long the 2.0 Fiat MJD will be in use.

1. Jeep -: Petrol Compass makes up 44% of the sales despite not having good reviews, which shows people will ditch diesel if and when they get a good powertrain (although it could be more due to price difference between Petrol and Diesel AT). Internationally Stellantis has 1.3L, 2.0L and 2.4L petrol engines which can replace the diesel.

2. Harrier/Safari -: New 1.5 Turbo petrol is expected to debut in the facelifts, and also aid in securing a better GNCAP rating.

3. Hector/Hector Plus -: MG's stubborn refusal to bring a Diesel automatic shows their lack of interest in the diesel powertrain and it's future. They have a 2L Petrol hybrid overseas which can replace the diesel when the time comes.

[mk600]

Originally Posted by Shreyans_Jain

Basically, apart from utilitarian vehicles like Bolero, diesel is now dead.

With all kinds of regulations coming in, strong hybrid is the way to go.

Reading here that Hyundai ( will continue to offer Creta Diesels in 2023 ), even while Hyundai sedans and hatchbacks will pull back from Diesel. In the midsized and large SUV segment, the significant penetration of Diesel may be difficult to overcome?

Meanwhile, strong Hybrids seeming to be a technology being offered by Japanese select few, whereas EVs seems to be a technology courted by Europeans, Chinese, Indians on all spectrums of cars. The Indian market taking it up quite rapidly as well. I wonder if the future in India will leapfrog to EVs before Hybrids.

[Shreyans_Jain]

Originally Posted by mk600

Meanwhile, strong Hybrids seeming to be a technology being offered by Japanese select few, whereas EVs seems to be a technology courted by Europeans, Chinese, Indians on all spectrums of cars. The Indian market taking it up quite rapidly as well. I wonder if the future in India will leapfrog to EVs before Hybrids.

EVs will never be practical for long distance use, definitely not like turbo diesels. You get excellent cars for long distance touring for, say, 25L. They will all have large turbocharged diesels. What are your EV options in this price range? Even if you double the price, it’s just not realistic. And it’s not going to become realistic for at least another decade minimum.

I see EVs becoming popular for urban use. Definitely. But strong hybrid is the replacement for diesel. And it is a fairly like for like replacement.

[one-77]

Originally Posted by Shreyans_Jain

EVs will never be practical for long distance use, definitely not like turbo diesels.

I see EVs becoming popular for urban use. Definitely. But strong hybrid is the replacement for diesel. And it is a fairly like for like replacement.

True. Till the time technology evolves to make charging possible in a few minutes. Most EVs, even the more expensive ones will give you range anxiety on triple longer ~300 kms.

In countries where EV penetration is increasing, the rail network is fast and reliable. You can conveniently plan to take a train to a city 300-400 kms away and can reasonably expect to reach that destination in a couple of hours. And public transport within these cities is also very good.

We on the other hand need 8-10 hours on average to cover these distances by very crowded and rather uncomfortable trains, or deal with greenfield airports and long security queues.

Diesels though will be tough to replace with petrol hybrids for highway runs. The ones available right now do not provide comparable torque or fuel efficiency on the highways. They are also a lot more expensive upfront. In the city, however they do provide stellar efficiency.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by one-77

In countries where EV penetration is increasing.

In countries where fast chargers are available it's quiet easy to do 1000km in 11 - 11:30 hrs on an average car, the same can be done in 9-9:30 hrs(without food break) in an ICE car. Premium cars like Tesla's already take almost same time as an ICE vehicle in covering 1000km.

So, if the fast chargers exist covering 1000km takes only 2 hrs extra, same time as an ICE car if food breaks are considered. As we know, most people do road trips with atleast 2-3 food breaks.

We need well developed fast charging network.

[mk600]

I was looking to understand how Diesel emission norms have changed over the years, and came across this informative site. I am no expert in this, but have relied on data presented here and deduced some observations.

If we compare the difference between BS4 Petrol & BS4 Diesel emissions, the gaps are quite large. It seems Particulate emissions (PM) had no targets in BS4 Petrol, but Nitrous Oxide (NOX) emissions were 3X worse in BS4 Diesel compared to BS4 Petrol. Similarly Hydrocarbons HC emissions were 2X worse in BS4 Diesel compared to BS4 Petrol. No wonder then BS4 Diesel was banned in NCR.


Looking at the numbers presented here, it is evident that ICE engines had a lot of modernization to be done between BS4 and BS6 stages of emissions.

For example here is the change on Petrol Engine emissions between BS4 and BS6. The primary impact was to improve NOX emissions by 25% between BS4 to BS6. Other parameters, in particular the Particulate Emissions PM, have not much changed in BS6 for Petrol ICE.


However, if one looks at the Diesel Engine emissions, it is a much more of a radical story. All parameters were improved and how! Particulate Emissions improved 80%, NOX improved by 70% in Diesel BS6. No wonder, this put many Diesel ICE engines unviable to be tweaked this dramatically!


Post BS6, if we compare difference between BS6 Petrol & BS6 Diesel emissions, the gaps between the two fuels are now significantly reduced. Particulate emissions is the same between BS6 Petrol and BS6 Diesel. NOX emissions are marginally worse in BS4 Diesel compared to BS4 Petrol, but not the 3X worse we saw in BS4. Hydrocarbons are marginally worse in Diesel BS6 but Carbon Monoxide is actually better in Diesel BS6 compared to Petrol BS6.


Looking at this data, it is apparent that while Diesel BS6 needs to improve further, the difference between Petrol BS6 and Diesel BS6 is radically improved, and are much more comparable from emissions standpoint.

Further, it seems to me that the strong policy push that banned BS4 Diesel in NCR was very much justified. But moving forward with BS6 norms, policy may not be focussed on banning ONLY Diesel cars, particularly when the parity between BS6 Diesel and BS6 Petrol ICE is reached/reaching soon.

Would like to hear fellow BHP-ians thoughts on this.

[tbppjpr]

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Thanks for the support & understanding

[Celes]

Originally Posted by mk600

I was looking to understand how Diesel emission norms have changed over the years, and came across this informative site. I am no expert in this, but have relied on data presented here and deduced some observations.

If we compare the difference between BS4 Petrol & BS4 Diesel emissions, the gaps are quite large. It seems Particulate emissions (PM) had no targets in BS4 Petrol, but Nitrous Oxide (NOX) emissions were 3X worse in BS4 Diesel compared to BS4 Petrol. Similarly Hydrocarbons HC emissions were 2X worse in BS4 Diesel compared to BS4 Petrol. No wonder then BS4 Diesel was banned in NCR.
Attachment 2423988

Looking at the numbers presented here, it is evident that ICE engines had a lot of modernization to be done between BS4 and BS6 stages of emissions.

For example here is the change on Petrol Engine emissions between BS4 and BS6. The primary impact was to improve NOX emissions by 25% between BS4 to BS6. Other parameters, in particular the Particulate Emissions PM, have not much changed in BS6 for Petrol ICE.
Attachment 2423987

However, if one looks at the Diesel Engine emissions, it is a much more of a radical story. All parameters were improved and how! Particulate Emissions improved 80%, NOX improved by 70% in Diesel BS6. No wonder, this put many Diesel ICE engines unviable to be tweaked this dramatically!
Attachment 2423989

Post BS6, if we compare difference between BS6 Petrol & BS6 Diesel emissions, the gaps between the two fuels are now significantly reduced. Particulate emissions is the same between BS6 Petrol and BS6 Diesel. NOX emissions are marginally worse in BS4 Diesel compared to BS4 Petrol, but not the 3X worse we saw in BS4. Hydrocarbons are marginally worse in Diesel BS6 but Carbon Monoxide is actually better in Diesel BS6 compared to Petrol BS6.
Attachment 2423990

Looking at this data, it is apparent that while Diesel BS6 needs to improve further, the difference between Petrol BS6 and Diesel BS6 is radically improved, and are much more comparable from emissions standpoint.

Further, it seems to me that the strong policy push that banned BS4 Diesel in NCR was very much justified. But moving forward with BS6 norms, policy may not be focussed on banning ONLY Diesel cars, particularly when the parity between BS6 Diesel and BS6 Petrol ICE is reached/reaching soon.

Would like to hear fellow BHP-ians thoughts on this.

I would like to further add to this informative quote. As the diesel engines are atleast 50% more efficient, in real world driving conditions, the emissions from a BS6 diesel engine per kms covered would be almost equal to a BS6 petrol car as more petrol would be burnt to cover same number of kms.

[SKC-auto]

Originally Posted by mk600

Particulate Emissions improved 80%,

Particulate emissions improved because we are capturing the particles using a filter, the particles are burnt again and released into the air during dpf regeneration, the total particulate emissions will be almost same as before if we consider particulate emissions during dpf regeneration.

It is actually more deadlier to breathe in the air during this process as all the particulates collected over several thousand kms will be burnt into tiny particulates which are then released into the air near your home.

Desiel owners should not do this regeneration(filter cleaning) where people breathe in the air. Many diesel owners are happy to see a dpf regeneration button, and unintentionally poisoning their homes.

[ashis89]

Originally Posted by SKC-auto

It is actually more deadlier to breathe in the air during this process as all the particulates collected over several thousand kms will be burnt into tiny particulates which are then released into the air near your home.

Desiel owners should not do this regeneration(filter cleaning) where people breathe in the air. Many diesel owners are happy to see a dpf regeneration button, and unintentionally poisoning their homes.

Is there any reading material that I refer to know more about this? DPF and the regen mechanism has been a grey area all this while.

On a related note, the exhaust tail tip of my 55k run bs6 diesel car is as clean as a stainless steel pipe, cleaner than my bs4 petrol car's exhaust.