[PaddleShifter]

Complete shift to automatics is going to be a slow process. Reasons:

1. Our old folks end up pressing the brake pedal with the left foot. It is not easy to adjust to automatics in old age. Before 2015-16, automatics were not selling in much numbers so most of the people born in 60s have been driving manual all their life. I am saying this from personal experience as okder generation in my family refuses to touch an automatic.
2. Not many cars in our Indian households are automatic, especially in rural areas. It is risky to hand over an automatic (because of left foot braking) and i’ll never be comfortable handing over the driver seat to a relative in such scenario.
3. We still believe in teaching on a manual transmission so that our family members can manage situations when they dont have access to the automatic.

Because of these three situations, complete shift to automatics is not possible before 2035 or something. The best scenario where a faster switch to automatics can be seen is the quick rise of EV sales.

[revsperminute]

I’ll give a 21 year old’s perspective. My first car ever was an AT and all cars we own are ATs. And as much as I hate to admit it, I struggle with stick shifts in challenging conditions. Especially cars with weak bottom end performance.

Moreover, the car market is geared towards (pun intended) selling more and more ATs.

With higher market infiltration of hybrids and EVs, manual transmissions as we know them will only exist in exotic cars in a few year’s time.

Personally, I feel manual transmissions are fun to drive under very niche circumstances. 100-150hp cars, that too on country roads. Modern ATs are nothing like the old outdated ones we think about when it comes to driving pleasure. VAG DSGs, the ZF 8 speed, even ones on the Indian cars such as the Mahindra XUV are brilliant. An AT is dependent on its tuning as much as its components. Looking at you, Meridian.

[GTO]

- Among private car owners, the move to ATs will be drastic. ATs are anyway the dominant transmission in the 20-40 lakh segments, and completely eliminated from the luxury segments above. Even among 10 - 15 lakh car models, we are seeing a preference for ATs when good gearboxes are offered.

- But MT will have a place in India for a long time to come. For one, it's a lakh cheaper to buy, more fuel-efficient and cheaper to maintain. Ours is an extremely cost-sensitive economy where budget-conscious owners will endure some hardship to save a buck. Second, while the EVs are coming, petrol cars are going to be around in India. They aren't vaporizing overnight, or even in 10 - 15 years.

[raktim]

Although ATs hit the European market much earlier, till date most of the cars sold are manual shifting.

A major reason is that you get a license to only drive ATs if you pass the test on an AT. However, if you use a manual shifting you get a license to drive all types.

Another reason, less compelling perhaps, many people feel driving a manual shifting is less boring than driving an AT.

[Sumer]

As others have pointed out, the proportion of Manuals will continue to decline but it isn't going extinct anytime soon. Till the ICE is there, we will have Manual in some or the other car. There are enthusiasts like us all around the world

[Bhalla]

In India, manuals are going to exist for many years to come but in countries like Canada, USA, manuals are getting extinct. Mainstream cars Toyota Corolla, Kia Forte, Nissan Sentra, Hyundai Elantra had manuals in base and mid variant till 2022. From 2023, all of them stopped offering manuals. Only special trims like Civic Si have manual gearbox.

[IB290]

Unless it is about traffic congestion, I would prefer a manual any day. It makes be feel more connected to the vehicle dynamics as I am selecting the gears and more conscious about the torque, engine braking and speed. And the confidence of being able to downshift and accelerate if needed. Not to mention, avoid power loss and get more from the fuel burnt given the paucity and pollution impact.

[theabstractmind]

It depends on the segment of the consumer, I think.

Cab operators (except premium ones) will continue with MT. It is cost effective to buy, run, and repair.

Private buyers are already moving to AT in cities. I know a friend who leaves behind his Rapid MT which he adores, and takes his mother's Tiago AMT for his commutes. And the same person had turned down a Rapid AT when buying. A good AT is fun on highways as well. Those driving mostly highways could still stick to MTs. And a few of those driving MTs in the city will eventually move to AT because their Ortho said so.

A bigger question is will car sales sustain? I see that 20s and early 30s now prefer cabs. They don't want the hassles of driving. It is possible that they may end up buying an AT if they do have to drive just to keep it hassle free.

All in all, the proportion of AT will increase, but possibly not reach USA levels.

[sunilch]

Numbers don't lie but technology changes can disrupt the market very fast. MTs in India will stick around for a while since these are believed to be more fuel efficient and cheaper. And in many cases, that holds true too.

However, we might just jump to 'No Gears' faster instead of conventional ATs. May be it will become a software and button controlled thing instead of a lever. Modern EVs don't really need a lever honestly. All this is controlled by software so we may not see a lever (MT or AT) at all going forward.

[dust-n-bones]

How about, neither manual or AT?

Teens in my extended family seem to be in no hurry to get acquainted with cars. A driver's license is an ID proof. As they grow into their 20s, they're fine being driven around, seem to have no 'mechanical' bone in them.

They today rely on the gig economy for both delivery and transport. Tomorrow, if autonomous tech displaces the gig worker, I sometimes think they won't even register the change, given how engrossed they are with their screens.

If forced to drive, it will obviously be an AT.

[Bsimhan]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

80 years ago almost all cars had the double clutch* system. Today I believe none do.

Rightly said. During the 60's I've seen quite a few double clutch busses and lorries. Quite a few of them also did not have a power steering.

[furyrider]

Originally Posted by PaddleShifter

1. Our old folks end up pressing the brake pedal with the left foot. It is not easy to adjust to automatics in old age. Before 2015-16, automatics were not selling in much numbers so most of the people born in 60s have been driving manual all their life. I am saying this from personal experience as okder generation in my family refuses to touch an automatic.

Couldn't agree more.

It took me a whole year to convince my father to purchase an automatic. He had a bad incident once where he stopped at a signal and was about to turn right once the light turned green. Just when he started moving, a biker taking a U-turn cut him off from left. My father panic braked, and the car stalled. An auto rear ended him. The mistake my father did was to roll down the window when the auto driver approached him. The auto driver was drunk and started abusing him and made a scene there. Fortunately, some good Samaritans took the matter into their own hands and pulled the auto driver away since he started reaching out for the car keys/cell phone. A traffic constable came to the rescue, slapped the auto driver and asked my father to leave. I have no idea what happened to the auto guy though. My father was alone then, and I only learnt about this a few months after this happened - when I noticed the scratches on the rear bumper and asked him about it.

Although he did not disclose it, I could sense that he was hesitant to take the car out and always preferred the bike unless the car was absolutely needed. He suddenly had this fear of stalling the vehicle and people honking milliseconds after the lights turn green did not help the matters either. I guess trauma from experiences like these leave a lasting impression. I mean he was otherwise normal except for the fact that he was finding the silliest reason to avoid driving the car. Once I saw him come home all wet drenched in rain - when asked why he did not take the car instead, he said that the place he went was not too far off. I felt ATs were the only way forward for him and tried convincing him to get himself an AT.

He still insisted that he was physically fit enough to drive a MT and was very reluctant to even take a test drive. To add insult to injury, the SA (who we know personally) asked my father why we wanted an automatic "since usually ladies prefer auto transmissions" (in his own words). Had to take the matter into my own hands and went ahead with the booking anyway.

Post delivery of the new vehicle, he still did not take the car out by himself. Every morning, I had to take him to some place where he could practice driving and the first thing I used to do was to show him how if I took my foot off the brake, the car would crawl forward without stalling. This was the man who taught me how to drive and here I was teaching him how to drive again!

It took a while for him to gain confidence. Once he was confident enough that the gearbox will not stall at signals, he went back to being his usual self. The elders in the extended family had a surprised pikachu face when they learnt that my father purchased an automatic. 4 years later, my father says he will never sell that car. He gained his confidence again and is more than happy to take the car into congested streets - something he was hesitant to do not too long ago. And regarding the surprised relatives? two of them went with automatics after taking my father's feedback.

Coming to the actual question:
I think picking an automatic is still seen as a "weakness" in this country - of course, no one gives a damn about what we drive in urban areas, but when it comes to smaller towns and rural areas, ATs are still considered to be "newbie-driver" gearboxes. Things are changing though. Once people understand the convenience an AT offers, there is no going back for most.

Personally, I was someone who was hell bent on an MT. After seeing how my father gained confidence after switching to an AT, I too changed. I would still continue driving MTs as long as my body permits. Once I grow old, I will switch to an AT (If the EVs/Hybrids do not take over by then of course).

Apologies for the long post. Somehow, the point I quoted took me back to this experience. Mods: Please delete this if you feel that this is not appropriate for this thread.

[jagdish_ker]

Originally Posted by V.Narayan

*Double clutch was common in non-synchromesh gears of the 1940s and earlier where clutch push 1 was to move to neutral and then clutch push 2 was used for moving to the desired gear. Specialist earth moving vehicles, very heavy trucks & mobile cranes use this today. I doubt any car does.

I remember learning bus driving back in 2004-05 which had a double-clutch. So it was not too long since it disappeared (if it had). In my opinion, it wasn't the most convenient thing for a person who was driving a Maruti Suzuki Zen. Many times I forgot the double clutch thing and end up shifting to the next gear which irritated my trainer. Yes, it shifted. But it was told it wasn't good for the transmission.

[GeeTee TSI]

The manual transmission as an entity will exist (simply because it is robust, proven like the ICE) but mostly likely not in the segment of a car one might buy. Even performance car brands are struggling (owing to lack of demand) to keep the MT alive

A segment where they will exist (or even thrive) seems to be the 4x4 off-road vehicles (not the high-sided FWD masquerading as an off-roader)

[astrodex]

I would go against the normal tide here and say that manuals, as an option would no longer exist in any significant fashion in a decade. In addition to EVs, the only reason for manuals is the cost savings, which with the advent of AMT is coming further down.

Remember all the scooters like Bajaj, which had manual transmissions before? How many of them do you find now with manual? Once automatic comes down to under 10 lakh cars, I think economies of scale will push the cost difference down that car companies will not be interested in maintaining two different variants.