The future of new (and used) car market in India When I got a chance to stay and work in a country on the other side of the globe, what I did within a few days, was buy a pre-owned car. It was an obvious choice, an utter necessity. The moment I took the first ride, it was an indescribable moment, feeling like a baby bird just made the very first flight. It was my first car. What struck me was the ease with which I could buy the used car, how “matured” the market was compared to our own. The whole process of finding the dealers, the showcasing of long lists of inventories, the availability of the cars for a quick spin, third-party agencies specialising in thorough testing of each mechanical and electrical part and scoring those, fixing the potential value range, the transfer of money and the eventual transfer of ownership of the vehicle. This was a couple of decades back, a time when the use of the internet wasn’t so prevalent, everything was done offline.
Times have changed and our own online/offline dealers have more-or-less developed similar operating models, except for the part where the inspection agencies are not always third parties and so there could be biased reporting on the condition of some pre-owned vehicles. However, the ease at which we can sell our cars is amazing. I was able to get the whole process completed for my previous car, in about 10 days out of which about 9 days were spent on negotiating with the online dealer to relent to my perceived selling price. I can only assume that the ease of buying from such dealers would be equally great.
One thing which glaringly still isn’t at par with the other “matured” markets, is the price discovery or rather “lucrative value of pre-owned cars for buyers”. The online/offline dealers have cornered most of the inventory and just like the builder-contractor nexus in the real estate sector, they have deep pockets to sit on their inventories and wait until they are able to fetch good mark-up on the vehicles. They also need to showcase a good list of available cars and so, selling for lower margins doesn’t really work to their advantage. After all, cars are not highly consumable items that we need to replace ever so quickly, most of us still keep ours for at least a few years, sometimes over a decade (I did too).
This landscape has been changing rapidly though it may not be noticeable so easily to everyone. Car manufactures are gearing up to launch more models at more frequent intervals. Case in point - MG has announced that it will release a new model every 3-6 months! There was a time when Maruti used to take years to launch a new model. Our homegrown M&M has been launching new cars or upgrades almost every year now. Tata Motors has been launching new ones or updating old ones at a much quicker pace, albeit some of them are the so called “Dark” editions but there is a buzz every few months about some new launch or update. With so many new launches, some are bound to lose value in used car markets very quickly, especially the discontinued models.
Secondly, changing government regulations necessitate some powertrains to lose value faster. Diesels have been the chief victim, at least in some regions.
Thirdly, upcoming technologies are going to render some specific models not so desirable. A new battery tech, for example, could lead to a lot of cars lose their resale values quickly.
A critical piece of the puzzle that’s missing in our market, is the availability of trusted third party agencies who can do thorough checking of any vehicle and suggest accurate price range for any prospective buyer. When buyers have this trust, at least some of the prospective buyers would shift to buying used cars rather than going for new ones.
Most importantly, there is going to be an abundance of used cars in the near future, which should help in bringing prices down further. Pre-owned vs new car sales in India have crossed a ration 2:1, while it was 1:1 just a few years ago. However, it is over 3:1 in the US.
The debatable point is - are we moving to this future soon, in a few years may be, a future where few people buy new cars, used cars are very cheap compared to the new ones and the market for used cars is much bigger? Or are we going to continue in the current state for much longer as our cars per capita is still very low, we view the sellers with a lot of suspicion, we continue to find some pride in buying a new car and some kind of shame in telling others that it was pre-owned?
What would BHPians prefer to buy - new or used? Would that decision change if used cars were cheaper and a comprehensive report of each and every mechanical/electrical component of each car was available (not just service reports) from a trusted source? Would it help to decide if you knew that you as second/third owner would still be able to sell easily, when the time comes, without devaluing your car a lot? Do you still feel proud to tell others that you bought a new car and not a pre-owned one? |