[guru_max]

With newsreports from all over the world coming in that electric vehicle sales have cooled off, many carmakers have altered their targets for EV production. This has implications the world over, the biggest example being Toyota, who were hesitant to launch products in the EV space, focusing more on hybrids. Now they are in a great position to retain the number 1 spot. With range anxiety, cost and infra issues being a stumbling block for mass EV adoption in the medium term, hybrids will probably see a temporary peak in the next 10 years or so.

This, obviously, has a ripple effect in India and not all carmakers are on equal footing. CNG adoption is also growing rapidly. Carmakers can roll out a CNG vehicle quickly, but a hybrid is a different ball game. Tata and Mahindra have focused a lot of their effort on EVs, effectively skipping hybrids. Toyota has been making hybrids for decades and that puts them and Maruti in a very strong position. Global players like Hyundai and Honda can also quickly adapt to make hybrid vehicles in India as they have a good portfolio of hybrid vehicles in their product range.

The question is whether hybrids will take off in India like in other countries. Unlike EVs, hybrids do not suffer from issues such as range, charging infrastructure, etc. They are also much more economical than the ICE cars. The only challenge for hybrids is their cost. If the price difference between ICE cars and hybrids decreases, then we will see a definite increase in sales.

What do BHPians think? Will hybrids fill the gap for a few years? What other factors apart from cost will drive the adoption of hybrids?

[bijims]

Hybrids will be a stop-gap solution until EVs take over, with better range, more charging infrastructure and lowered prices, EVs will soon become the norm, but in the meantime Hybrids will have their time

[Thyag]

I have a different view on the whole, I don't think that EV or BEV is not future (like long time, as ICE held the market). Rare earth elements being used, the longevity of the batteries and disposal of the same is all together a bigger nuisance & unsustainable to our planet than the Fossil Fuels.

Hybrids will bridge the gap for now between ICE vehicles & BEV, but I think we will find out some major breakthrough in coming years (maybe in 10 years). Actually hybrids should be given more importance than the BEV !

[Shreyans_Jain]

We must keep aside the fancy noises made by managements of car companies and gauge their real commitment toward electric transition by their stubborn refusal to not launch mass market, affordable EVs and their deliberate half hearted moves in that space. Ultimately, hybrids are a convenient way for legacy manufacturers to extend the lives of their conventional powertrains and by extension, their own.

Whatever innovation that has happened in EV space has come from startups and outsiders, not the traditional car industry. This is why the Germans and Americans are so afraid of the Chinese. They are willing to make the products the old timers are not.

[guru_max]

Originally Posted by Shreyans_Jain

We must keep aside the fancy noises made by managements of car companies and gauge their real commitment toward electric transition by their stubborn refusal to not launch mass market, affordable EVs and their deliberate half hearted moves in that space. Ultimately, hybrids are a convenient way for legacy manufacturers to extend the lives of their conventional powertrains and by extension, their own.

But tthere are several carmakers like VW, Ford etc who focused heavily on EVs but now are caught off gaurd. Even the likes of tesla and BYD have not been able to make affordable EVs. The hesitancy seems to exist in the market irrespective of various car makers' strategy.

[Shreyans_Jain]

Originally Posted by guru_max

But tthere are several carmakers like VW, Ford etc who focused heavily on EVs but now are caught off gaurd. Even the likes of tesla and BYD have not been able to make affordable EVs. The hesitancy seems to exist in the market irrespective of various car makers' strategy.

There is a world of difference between not being able to and choosing not to. VW, Ford etc have all not made relevant EVs in the sub $20000 range. Contrast that against BYD and tens of other Chinese companies who not many of us have even heard of, they do volumes many times more than what our leading manufacturer do here in economical EVs.

[Nilesh5417]

If you know of Gartner's hype cycle, the EV space is somewhere off the "Peak of inflated expectations" but hasn't hit the "trough of disillusionment".

I say it hasn't hit the trough cause the range anxiety and lack of sufficient charging infra are to me top challenges at least based on discussions I see around me.

IMO, it will hit the trough when the tech majorly starts puncturing the whole bubble of sustainability it's wrapped in today. That is when mining rare earth minerals and waste disposal truly hit our environment. Given that adoption is nascent and recycling of waste isn't happening at significant proportions yet (most cars are nowhere near the end of their life), the impact is not fully visible on the ground.

We as human race only accept things when we see them hitting our daily lives I.e. when the tipping point has been reached. No amount of warning from scientific communities ever makes us change our ways.

The cycle also is playing out in GenAi - we are at the peak of inflated expectations and gradually hitting the trough now that the ROI isn't visible for the billions that are needed to be invested and the power-hungry nature of this tech is increasingly visible.

All tech / seemingly blockbuster ideas take time to reach the plateau of productivity when the tech finds its use cases, has decent ROI making it worth investing and finds it space / user base for adoption.

So yeah - while EVs may not be the default across all mobility needs, hybrids will also have their moment of hype and then settle down as one of the many practical options.

Passenger mobility should focus on efficient, affordable public transport and discourage individual private vehicles at least as means of daily commute! Let people buy cars to pursue motorsports / their passion but dont make cars a basic necessity. Many will then simply not buy multiple cars or maybe not buy a car at all! That to me is the only practical solution.

Now that doesn't sound good like the automotive future we truly want to discuss on t-bhp right?

[vids2590]

I really hope that we get more options in hybrid. They make so much more sense than ev's, atleast in my use case scenario. But I think it'll be difficult for Hybrids coz of Chinese market. China will be the dominating force in automobile industry in very near future and EV's are all the rage over there ( according to kind of vehicles coming out of there ). In order for hybrids to really be a value proposition, it needs to be produced in India not be imported. I Don't prefer plug in hybrids.

[Samegoodkid]

I don't think hybrids are stop gap solution. Let me also say that future is not " only EV". It will be a mix of petrol,hybrids, CNG , EV and other newer technologies ( may be even Diesel).

The way I look at the market evolving is the smaller cars will probably move into EV space ( for intercity travel) and the bigger ones would still be CNG or Hybrid.

Answer to the question "whether hybrids will take off in India?" lies in the hands of our Government and policy makers.

[PreludeSH]

Every international car manufacturer has hybrid versions of almost all their models. So for car makers there is not much to do today. They will respond to demand. India being an exception for some reason that the same car makers did not introduce those variants here.

Our domestic makers lack the expertise and would rather go the EV way which is easier. If there is some incentive from govt for hybrids, we might see more choice of hybrid vehicles.

Diesel being available for cheaper price than petrol might be some reason for people not to be enthused about hybrids. People are ready to spend more initially for the higher price of diesels which might also change if you look at efficiency and refinement of petrol hybrids if available.

[volkman10]

The rise of Strong Hybrid cars in India. Is likely to grow substantially as more players pitch in.





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