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-   -   April 2009 Sales Figures & Analysis (http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/showthread.php?t=58526&page=0)

GTO 12th May 2009 15:48

April 2009 Sales Figures & Analysis
 
Report compiled by GTO & Vasudeva. Only possible due to Vasudeva’s contribution. Thanks man!

The important comparison is YOY (Year on year) as March is generally a month of high sales (depreciation benefits).

Overall Market:

- Passenger car sales up 4.2% (year-on-year) from 98,752 to 102,899 cars, mainly due to higher compacts & premiums. Great way to start the fresh financial year, though not everyone is optimistic of the economy recovering just yet.

- Utility vehicles nearly the same @ 22,300 UVs. Seems like Xylo is a success and is perhaps the only UV that is posting positive growth (not considering niche or small segments). Could be that commercial buyers have tightened their purses more than individual buyers?

- Diesel cars now account for 31% market share (source : BusinessWorld) helped, no doubt, by India’s national engine (the Fiat 1.3 multijet )

Hatchbacks:

- Maruti’s erstwhile champion – the 800 – is now down to its lowest ever monthly sales report of 2,345 (down 47% YOY and 3.5% MOM). Pull the plug, MUL, or reposition (read = cheaper) to take on the Nano?

- The competent Alto continues its domination while all A2 segment Marutis (Alto, WagonR, Zen, Swift, A Star) total up for 46,810 cars sold in April! That’s nearly 60% of the 3 – 5 lakh hatchback segment.

- News has been filtering in that the Zen Estilo sales are sliding. I don’t see the point in making this car which is nothing more than a WagonR clone under the skin. Behead the Estilo and move on! Too bad about what happened to the “Zen” badge though. Everything that the original zen created, was washed out by the weird Estilo.

- The i10 has driven Hyundai’s cause to growth, this car combined with the Santro sold 20,140 units – a 7.3% YOY growth.

- While the Indicas (old + new) have grown 16.2% YOY, their monthly fall is in line with the worst. A whopping 37%. Clearly, the Vista is not doing for Tata what it should have done (bad positioning, too similar to the old Indica). This explains Tata’s recent move of introducing a cut-price Indica Quadrajet. The Indica at one time enjoyed its supremacy as the only diesel hatch, that has changed with the Swift, Palio and soon-to-be-launched Ritz.

- GM’s repositioning of the Spark (lower price, cheaper variants) is giving it relatively better volumes. The Spark is now selling about 3,000 cars a month.

- The Fabia is officially a flop (363 cars). Sales are down 57% compared to last April, and 35% to March 2009. The Fabia continues as the second worst selling hatchback in India : surely an unenviable position. I hope Skoda realizes that you can’t get away with selling lousy engines backed by shoddy service, at an inflated price! Skoda is selling 1-2 month old Fabia (only 90 produced in 4/09).

- Palio : Why is Fiat hanging on to this outdated poorly performing hatch? With only a 104 cars sold, it isn’t making Fiat a fortune. And the Palio will only ruin Fiat’s image….something that the Italian company is keen to resurrect. Fiat, do yourself a favour and sell only modern cars like the Linea, upcoming GP etc. This car is more of a "polio" on Fiats current resume.

Sedans:

- Will wonders ever cease? The ANHC sells 2,800 cars, a whopping 41% more than the cheaper practical NHC (previous Honda City). And this in an economy whose confidence is lower! This, when the C-segment market size has stayed pretty much the same at about 17,000 – 18,000 cars. Who would have thought?

- The Dzire has single handedly taken Maruti’s C-segment numbers to 7,066. A 69% YOY growth rate. Dzire clear leader in mid-size.

- Hyundai is in deep sweat. Their Accent + Verna arsenal has weakened; 2,067 cars….a massive 23% hit over last year. The Verna is a lacklustre sedan at best, only saved by the stonker diesel. The Accent has been around for like forever.

- Indigo is now selling a lot less. Lots of discounts on this and Tata is clearing out old stock (368 produced in 4/09)

- Fiat’s Linea seems to be settling down around the 1,000 figure mark (April = 1,101 cars). Pat on the back to Fiat for recovery. We can only hope that they don’t make a mess of the situation in the future.

- Ford is now back to selling an average of 1,700 sedans (Fiesta + Ikon combined). I am surprised that the value-priced Ikon TDCi hasn’t had a positive effect on Ford India’s market share here.

- Prepare to bid farewell to the lacklustre Aveo soon. A paltry 151 cars, and a 55% YOY decline. Bye bye to the Optra too : Market will decide its fate (only 136 moved in April, diesel notwithstanding).

- The Ambassador is losing favour with politicians, the Lancer too old and the Cedia really never clicked. These three combine for only 500 odd cars. Really a lost opportunity when you consider that HM used to sell about a 1000 Lancers alone 10 years back. Poor ol’ HM, could never keep up with the times and continues to market vintage horses.

- Logan is another flop! YOY sales down by 68%. The Indian customer is clearly smarter than to accept a low cost car wearing a premium price tag. Logan is close to its death-bed.

GTO 12th May 2009 15:49

C+ Segment:

- Skoda is in trouble. Deep trouble. Octavia + Laura down 44% YOY to only 531 cars combined. Even a diesel advantage can’t help you when your cars are too expensive to maintain. And (do we need a reminder?) backed by the worst service standards in the country. Stock clearance for Octavia, Laura (only 214 produced).

- The Civic continues to lose favour with the market. Sales down 46% to 625 units.

- The Corolla Altis grows 20% YOY, but still a notch below the Civic at 526.

D Segment:

- The Accord continues with its typical 200 odd cars (230 in April).

- Sonata – Transformed or not – is finished as a brand in our market. An embarrassing 34 cars, even with a stonker of a diesel engine!

- The only saving grace for Skoda is the performance of the new Superb. The volumes of this segment may be low, but 154 cars is no mean feat. Great car. Would have had wider acceptance if it weren’t for the service. Neither has it outsold the Accord. Says a lot about the buyer’s priority toward the “peace of the mind” factor.

SUVs / 4x4:

- Maruti moved 905 Gypsies in April! Compare that to only 31 sold in April 2008. Unbelievable! Army orders? Team-BHP 4x4 epidemic spreading?

- 1237 Safaris sold. This 10+ year old SUV has got to be making Tata a lot of money (depreciated machinery and all that).

- 201 Endeavours, Ford feeling the Captiva heat! YOY down 32%

- 71 Pajeros. Down 63% YOY!

- 42 X3 + X5s. Not bad for BMW. 61% YOY growth.

- 6 Tucsons sold (Hyundai’s old stock)

- Vitara 0. M Class 0.

Luxury:

- BMW is on a roll. It has outsold Mercedes each month of the current calendar year (April 240 versus 178 for Merc). The 3 series sold 109 cars registering a 51.4% YOY growth. The 5 series, on the other hand, dropped 17% YOY and a heart-wrenching 75% MOM. The new 7 is walking along at 10 cars sold in April. Mercedes sold 87 C Class, 70 E Class and 21 S Class.

Clearly, Mercedes needs the new E Class as much as it needs to offer 5 year service packages (a la BMW).

Total Marketshare (by Manufacturer):

Maruti : 47.88%
Hyundai : 16.4
Tata : 12.1
Mahindra : 10.7
GM : 3.5%
Honda : 2.7
Toyota : 2.5
Ford : 1.5
Fiat : 0.9
Skoda : 0.8
HM : 0.4
Force : 0.3
BMW : 0.2
Mercedes : 0.1
ICML : 0.1

vasudeva 12th May 2009 15:55

1 Attachment(s)
With no false modesty at all, I have never ever posted such a thorough analysis. This can be easily verified.

EDIT : Attached to this post is an excel sheet with all the domestic sales information.

[quote=GTO;1299851][
- News has been filtering in that the Zen Estilo sales are sliding.

`news' means as in something new. Estilo was never selling except in the first 1-2 months of 2007. Maruti cannot indefinitely pushing old Suzuki stock onto the Indian public. Remember that Bushism `... fool me once, shame on — shame on you. Fool me — you can't get fooled again.'

Indica could be declining because of the slump in the taxi segment (that has also severely impacted UVs).

The Fabia is unofficially a flop. Officially and looking at Indian rags, it is the best thing to have reached Indian shores from the land of obsession with ...'.

Palio : Fiat keeps on producing Palios regardless of its sales (301 in 4/2009, 219 in 3/2009). Expect even more discounts now on this Independence Day vintage car.

The City (new or old) will always sell as a premium mid-size because of its well-deserved reputation. However, do note that as was noted last year in 3/2008 and 4/2008, Honda was considered to have padded up its 3/2008 numbers with consequent deflation for 4/2008. That may account for the huge gain. To compare, consider that Honda sold an average of 5,227 City per month during Jan-Mar. 2009, and 4868 during Jan-Mar 08. The slump is sparing no one.

Aveo should have been retired long-time ago. Drastically less sales of Optra petrol and diesel, compared with petrol only earlier. Typical GM style.

Trust the French to make bad cars, and then run at the first sign of distress. Remember a French senior embassy minister visiting our office last year extolling French products. Perhaps they should throw in a day/night out with Laetitia Casta or Cotillard.

pradster 12th May 2009 15:59

Interesting numbers, what do you reckon has the linea cemented FIAT's comeback or there still some distance to travel? I feel the punto should seal the deal, ideally.

Skoda's sales are indeed shocking, no VW numbers?

And with the civic losing favor with the market, do you forsee some new models, a rejig perhaps?

The gypsy surge can best be attributed to election demand, a look at the bolero numbers ( not discussed here?) should also point in the same direction.

manish7 12th May 2009 16:02

Great info! :)
Just curious to know how it is compiled.

dushmish 12th May 2009 16:03

Good analysis GTO. The comments you have put are well worded. The figures confirm what we see on the roads in terms of new cars rolling out of showrooms. Sometimes I fail to understand why companies like Ford, HM could not build on the success of their cars. On the other hand MAruti and Hyundai have been constantly introducing newer models to satiate the demands of the Indian customers.

Gagan.js 12th May 2009 16:07

Great work.

Lets see how many shoddy websites and lame magazines copy this :@

Edit, no scorpio/balero/xylo?

GTO 12th May 2009 16:14

I don't know if you guys looked at the total marketshare figures. For all we speak of Fiat's misfortunes & future in the country, Fiat has overtaken Skoda in total volumes! And this with really one car : The Linea (Palio at a 100 cars hardly counts)!!

pradster 12th May 2009 16:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTO (Post 1299907)
I don't know if you guys looked at the total marketshare figures. For all we speak of Fiat's misfortunes & future in the country, Fiat has overtaken Skoda in total volumes! And this with really one car : The Linea (Palio at a 100 cars hardly counts)!!

Ah, Just saw the market share figures that you added.

Just a question, the marketshare reflects the percentage of cars sold by that particular manufacturer out of all the cars sold for the month of april 09, right?

Whats next for Skoda, Price cuts?

ms001 12th May 2009 16:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTO (Post 1299907)
I don't know if you guys looked at the total marketshare figures. For all we speak of Fiat's misfortunes & future in the country, Fiat has overtaken Skoda in total volumes! And this with really one car : The Linea (Palio at a 100 cars hardly counts)!!

any idea about the 500 ? if any of them were sold?

Great work GTO and Vasudeva !
enjoyed the post thoroughly

pradster 12th May 2009 16:25

Quote:

Originally Posted by ms001 (Post 1299919)
any idea about the 500 ? if any of them were sold?

:OT
I have seen a couple in Delhi, saw one parked outside a club on Saturday night.

Since the 500 and the bravo are imports I don't expect their numbers to make any difference to the FIAT tally here, or warrant an analysis for that matter.

madhukar_n 12th May 2009 16:28

SX4 needs a revamp. A new design with 1.6L diesel engine might be a nice change.

manziee_crusier 12th May 2009 16:44

Is car market recession free.Are people investing in cars !!!!.....Hmmm unknown reasons .....

vasudeva 12th May 2009 16:46

Although not directly relevant here, Hyundai is faring a lot better because of it focus on the European market. It is expecting customers hit by the economic crisis to switch from larger cars to the small, affordable i20. Hyundai sold 72144 cars in Western Europe during Jan-Mar 09, up 14.4% from Jan-Mar 2008. This is in a market that declined 16.4% to 3.23 million.

Hyundai Motors Europe President Kun-Hee Ahn has said `Prevailing economic conditions and changing vehicle taxation regulations have forced many consumers to closely examine their financial commitments'. Even Jay Ryu, Hyundai Europe's executive coordinator of product marketing, said i20 sales could come from people who are downsizing. Hyundai aims to sell more than 100,000 i20s in Europe during 2009. i20 replaces Getz in Europe, which sold around 60,000 in 2008.

vasudeva 12th May 2009 16:57

Quote:

Originally Posted by pradster (Post 1299918)
Just a question, the marketshare reflects the percentage of cars sold by that particular manufacturer out of all the cars sold for the month of april 09, right?

Yes, it means market share based on headline figure in row 5, and not market share based on segment share. Fortunately, the excel sheet has formulas too!!!


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