[saugdas]

I have been following the car sales figures since Aug and one thing i see is a significant variation from month to month between the variants in the segment. Hence felt the need to track a cumulative sales figure for all the major variants to get a holistic picture and here i post it for all of your attention with the help of the figures posted by GTO in this forum each month.

Clearly there are 3 winners - Dzire, Indigos+manza & ANHC which we are all aware of. But the degree is what overwhelms me as seen from the graph. The slope of ANHC has however been flattened a bit of late and picked up last month due to promotions. All others are bunched together at the end of the graph and insignificant differences as of now on a holistic view. (Of course I could have spent some more time to segregate between the segments, but think this serves the purpose for the time being).
If i magnify the lower part of the graph, you can see a shooting start - the Vento.

[avishar]

Thats a good piece of analysis there saugdas,thanks!

VW clearly seems to have hit the nail on head with the vento,after eons i think we finally have a worthy competitor to the city.With VW expanding their dealerships in smaller cities,the sales figure of the vento will be heading up!

I think its time GM comes out with the new-Aveo,it has become long in the tooth.Same with the Optra.

With new verna and fiesta being launched soon,we can look forward to having a few more choices in the sedan market,along with the SX4 diesel.

[ghodlur]

Nice analysis Saugda, thanks for the same.

It seems that VW vento is the most exponentially selling car and VE has stuck gold. However it will some more time for Vento to overcome the City domination. By that time if the new Fiesta is released, then the competetion is going to be more fiercer than ever.

Can you pull up some graphs showing the petrol vs Diesel figures if you can. Will give a good comparison of consumer preference.

[devil_klm]

Thanks for sharing Saugda.
One more exponential curve we can expect is with Etios.
Especially once the diesel version chip in to the market, there will be one more curve in the top.

[saugdas]

@Avishar & Ghodlur, You are most welcome.

I can put up the graphs, but i need the data for the petrol vs diesel for each of these months. Where to get them?

[amitpunjani]

Originally Posted by saugdas

@Avishar & Ghodlur, You are most welcome.

I can put up the graphs, but i need the data for the petrol vs diesel for each of these months. Where to get them?

Hi Saugdas

Firstly thanks for the brilliant work, Can you please provide the excel for this perhaps i could add more to it.

[ACM]

There are 2 two way fights.

1) It good to see the TATA Indigo + manza proposition taking the fight to Maruti Dzire.
2) It is also nice to see the Vento taking on the City in a decent manner, The City which is a good but overpriced car does still lead by a big margin but the Vento should be able to catch on as production levels improve and more of these are seen on the road.

Sad to see the Linea numbers - In my eyes it is a capable alternative to the City and Vento and should have been right up with them. I guess the interior plastics did them in this time.

Nice bit of graph plotting.

[libranof1987]

Nice graphs!

DZire, ANHC and Indigo seem to be in a diff. league altogether.

Any idea why the SX4 took a hit in Dec '10? Vento seems to be having a field run. Bet once the production is brought to speed, it could challenge ANHC.

Verna makeover seems to have worked wonders; while GM needs to bring out something new with Aveo and Optra (for a while, I'd thought Optra was out of production!).

Btw, the sales of Logan look decent. Could this be because of Meru/Easy etc. or private individuals?

[thedreamcatcher]

Couple of reasons why SX4's take a hit generally and have this info from people I have spoken to and people I know who work at MUL

Most often people reject this, as rear vision is difficult for people who are shorter and ladies alos find it difficult to drive reverse. One sit in it and my wife, despite liking the car, said it would be a concern. She is around 5'6''

Second thing is, in that range, people prefer to put some more money and go in for a Honda

Another factor, is several times, and this I git from a MUL guy, is they came to buy an SX4, but settled for a Dezire, considering it also has a Diesel option for the cost conscious

[libranof1987]

But the sales were back to their original trend in January '11. The reasons you've given would lead to a general trend.

Only Dec '10 seems the anamoly. Anything to do with promotions on other cars?

[nurni76]

Originally Posted by libranof1987

But the sales were back to their original trend in January '11. The reasons you've given would lead to a general trend.

Only Dec '10 seems the anamoly. Anything to do with promotions on other cars?

I guess December was low because of possibly 3 reasons:
1. Annual plant shutdown
2. Anticipation of SX4 Diesel
3. Wanting to buy a new year model

Jan sales seem to be higher possibly because of SX4 Diesel despatches since there is news of SX4 diesel launch soon.

[Highflyer]

Good analysis Saugdas,
VW needs to be cautious because all the euphoria may evaporate if there After Sales Service and buyer experience is not up to the mark. Lot of people are complaining on these lines.I hope VW is listening.

[saugdas]

Its like this:

Gr A match : DZire (29%) vs Indigos (23%) vs ANHC (14%)

Gr B match : Vento (6%) vs Verna (6%) vs SX4 (5%) vs Fiesta (4%)

Rest of them will be playing for the local street level trophys..

[noopster]

@saugdas- great stuff. We were discussing the same thing on the cumulative sales thread.

When you consider that VW is still grappling with supply issues for both the Vento and the Polo, this is quite a feat!

[oxyzen]

Watch out for etios!!
The champ is here

It will be the only competitor for Dzire and Manza.
Just like vento is for ANHC.

Expect another shooting star.