[srs_shetty87]

Originally Posted by GTO

The kids of today would rather spend money on gadgets / clothes / experiences than cars.

Agreed, but isn't driving an experience in itself too? Late night, windows down, music, cramping a 5 seater hatchback with 7 or even 8 people.
Wonder if all of these simply don't matter to latest generations.

I still wait every year, to be back and take my little hatchback all the way to southern Karnataka from Bombay if time permits, all alone.

Originally Posted by GTO

Before, there was a famous saying that Indians only wanted 'roti, kapda aur makaan' (food, clothes & a house). Now, it's roti, kapda, makaan aur gaadi' (car).

True that, I see a lot of people, just buying cars and parking it in the society, probably just as a status symbol. 4-5 years old and these cars barely have 15-20k KMs on the odo.
Their kids of legal driving age don't bother to take them out either. They just seem to prefer taxis, autos and other means.

Originally Posted by navin

Not really. The kids are smarter than us.

They car pool even with Uber/OLA
They factor in cost of parking (typically Rs. 100 for 3 hrs, more if longer)
They factor in the time and trouble taken to find parking.
The person driving has to focus on the road and traffic instead of partaking in the fun they have in the car.

Also probably due to the fear of persecution in drunk driving cases and car damaging lynch mobs that have come to the fore off recently.
Until a few years ago "Aaj tera bhai gadi chalaega" post a lot of drinks was not uncommon and people got through lightly. Nowadays, even my friends from the above category are adamant on having a party driver or simply taking a cab, all of which, in a way is good.

[shipnil]

Some findings from latest YouGov-Mint Millenial survey.

Across cities, an overwhelming majority of youth, including those who use cab services, expressed a desire to own a personal vehicle. This seems to suggest that the auto industry is unlikely to be disrupted by the cab services industry anytime soon.

For full report, refer https://www.livemint.com/Politics/V8...uru-Metro.html

[Asish_VK]

I think car sales will come down in India too , at least in big cities like Bangalore , Mumbai etc

Taking myself as an example,

As a petrol head I always wanted to own a nice luxurious car or two and was hoping to buy in near future. But after the introduction of app based taxi services and self drive cars, I am not interested to buy a new car now.

With the increased traffic in cities, its always easier to use uber/ola with advantages like no stress of driving in traffic, no parking worry, no EMI's, no maintenance etc.

For satisfying my driver within me, there are always self driven rental cars.

Or even I might buy an small and cheap car with essential safety kits and gadgets to use only if need arises.

[VivOverland]

The self-driven car is likely to go the way of the horse and carriage, after Ford disrupted the industry of transport & conveyance. Cars may live on in the hands of collectors and a few die-hards, just like the pony clubs and polo fraternities that still exist. The mass market will always select the most effective means of transportation, we don't seek experiences when commuting from point A to B. Even a hardened jockey or horse trainer, doesn't go to work on horseback today (even if it were legal to do so!).

Ride sharing, autonomous vehicles, fleet ownership is the next step forward. Exciting times, I'm interested to see how designers proceed now that cars no longer need a dashboard and steering / pedals; and passengers don't necessarily have to face forwards. For those considering crashes, keep in mind that autonomous vehicles rarely crash, and once intersections are removed, probably won't even need traffic signals! High speed communication between vehicles will be like magic to our minds, check out this video if you don't believe me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kh7X-UKm9kw

It may soon be illegal, to drive a car manually!

[carmayogi]

Originally Posted by nakul0888

Also Ford and GM seems to be in a pretty serious bear market. Ford shares have gone down 30% or more. So has GM's. Tesla stock valuation is a joke. They are yet to post a single year of profit despite being in the business of selling 150,000$ cars to rich people in California. In car business this is about the juiciest fattest margin giving segment there is. Maybe Elon should take business management lessons from Porsche. There is a massive sub prime loan crisis in the auto loan sector too. Too many people who cant actually afford new cars buying them on super cheap credit and now defaulting on their loans. Everyday we hear that the U.S is booming under trump and yet car sales are down, the two biggest car companies are in a bear market and the housing market is also in a slowdown. On top of all of this Trumps stupid trade wars. Its been 10 years since the last recession. I think something big maybe coming.

Interesting points. Living here in NYC, I hear a lot of the same concerns. Furthermore, the last time there was a low-tax-help-corporates Republican in charge, George W Bush, he managed to take a growing economy and create a recession. A lot of similarities exist now and this will affect the auto market.

As far as Tesla is concerned, they were selling high margin 100k+ cars, but also spending like crazy on building a charging infrastructure in their supercharge network in the US which a conventional car doesn't need - petrol stations exist already. So far 11,000 + chargers in the world and that's only actually USA/Canada/Europe, parts of East Asia and Australia. Now that the Model 3 is here in proper manufacturing quantities, they are expected to either be cash flow break even or positive in this current quarter.

I think the valuation is crazy, but Tesla has excellent products by all reviews and owner accounts (sales), connected cars (data), their own charging network (retention), and their own battery manufacturing (scale). Their success or failure really depends on what product they launch next - Elon's madness will continue, I expect. There's talk of a CR-V sized Model Y in 2019 which would no doubt be a cash cow. I am optimistic of their future because of the points above.

GM & Ford, meanwhile may be behind the curve with EV's as Volkswagen and Hyundai are coming with genuine mass market cars in the next 24 months - Hyundai is already here with the Kona - 500km range EV.

[timuseravan]

Originally Posted by navin

Now look at my own case. An Uber from my office to home is about Rs. 100-120 each way. Say Rs. 250 both ways. My driver's CTC is at least Rs. 20,000 maybe more but to be safe lets assume 20,000. This works out to more than Rs. 750 per day. The fuel is mine, all the maintenance is mine and I have a garage at both ends (for those who don't, you have to add parking charges). If I took an Uber both ways to work I would save Rs. 13,500 per month at the least. Over Rs. 1.5L per year. And no EMI for a car either.

Who is smarter? My kid or me? Even if you factor in the occasional surge prices.

The big problem is that your example is not a representative sample. Most people do not use drivers.
For example for my case, my daily running works out to about Rs. 300 per day for office commute. Uber charges 200 to 250 one way and I have seen it goto 350 in surge pricing! Uber pool is around 150 one way but it can take almost twice the amount of time in commute.

[MBstoTBs]

My 2cents -

Look at which cars sell in India today - models with good entertainment systems, powered seat adjustment, mood lights etc do better than the cars that drive well, brake well, and have good suspension. Most new car reviews in india and abroad, talk about Android Auto and Apple Carplay, but rarely will you see them mention braking distance, turning radius, moose test, A pillar visibility, thigh support etc etc.

The thrill/convenience of driving, once any car's USP, has given way to touchpads, reduced pollution safety, parking cameras etc. Lots of factors - costs, rising traffic, shrinking families, less leisure time are responsible.

This may be the end of an era of automobiles as we knew it, and start of the era of personal transport pods -whether dedicated or shared. And app based rides makes perfect sense, when you cannot enjoy driving.

[navin]

Originally Posted by timuseravan

The big problem is that your example is not a representative sample. Most people do not use drivers.
For example for my case, my daily running works out to about Rs. 300 per day for office commute. Uber charges 200 to 250 one way and I have seen it goto 350 in surge pricing! Uber pool is around 150 one way but it can take almost twice the amount of time in commute.

Absolutely, for those who are self driven and have longer commutes the economics of Uber vs car may be wholly different. I think both are use cases are at the two extremes of the curve with a big bulk falling somewhere between your example and mine.

For me Uber would be about 20-25% if I factor in driver cost, EMI, fuel, etc. For you Uber is 200% of your cost of Rs. 300/day (if you do not factor in the cost of stress of driving in traffic).

BTW do you include EMI, cost of maintenance, repairs, etc. in the total cost of running (Rs. 300/day)?

[CarJunki]

Originally Posted by navin

Absolutely, for those who are self driven and have longer commutes the economics of Uber vs car may be wholly different. I think both are use cases are at the two extremes of the curve with a big bulk falling somewhere between your example and mine.

For me Uber would be about 20-25% if I factor in driver cost, EMI, fuel, etc. For you Uber is 200% of your cost of Rs. 300/day (if you do not factor in the cost of stress of driving in traffic).

BTW do you include EMI, cost of maintenance, repairs, etc. in the total cost of running (Rs. 300/day)?

If one is driving themselves, the cost of stress and fatigue to self should be added in addition to considering your own time worth.
If car is not on EMI, then cost of opportunity for the capital expenditure on buying car, maintenance and disruptions arising out of repair work.

[gauravanekar]

I can give you two more usecases:

1. I work well outside city and my work commute is comfortably taken care by my employer (full size bus). My Ford Figo has low usage since it is not being run daily. It is used for Dmart runs or for traveling to native once a month or alternate month. My car is still new. But even if my car is 7 yr old, I don't see my car being replaced by a new car due to low mileage.

2. My brother lives in rural area, he is well of and the family owns a ritz petrol, diesel DZire and a two wheeler. He has a daily commute of approx 30km. His DZire is well maintained and has a lot juice in it
Since the last 2 years he has been thinking of upgrading but other than Octavia there is no worthy upgrade for his usecases. If only Octavia like car was made by Maruti he would have upgraded. He sees no value in replacing DZire with city or Yaris. Its just not worth it he feels.

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by VivOverland

The self-driven car is likely to go the way of the horse and carriage, after Ford disrupted the industry of transport & conveyance. Cars may live on in the hands of collectors and a few die-hards, just like the pony clubs and polo fraternities that still exist. The mass market will always select the most effective means of transportation, we don't seek experiences when commuting from point A to B. Even a hardened jockey or horse trainer, doesn't go to work on horseback today (even if it were legal to do so!).

Ride sharing, autonomous vehicles, fleet ownership is the next step forward. Exciting times, I'm interested to see how designers proceed now that cars no longer need a dashboard and steering / pedals; and passengers don't necessarily have to face forwards. For those considering crashes, keep in mind that autonomous vehicles rarely crash, and once intersections are removed, probably won't even need traffic signals! High speed communication between vehicles will be like magic to our minds, check out this video if you don't believe me.
It may soon be illegal, to drive a car manually!

There is no doubt autonomous vehicles are more efficient and safer than self driven ones and I welcome them and eagerly look forward to them. However, you are getting carried away here. This technology is at least ten to twenty years from going mainstream. Even after that self driven vehicles will remain in significant numbers. So this vision you painted is decades away from being a reality.

Originally Posted by timuseravan

The big problem is that your example is not a representative sample. Most people do not use drivers.
For example for my case, my daily running works out to about Rs. 300 per day for office commute. Uber charges 200 to 250 one way and I have seen it goto 350 in surge pricing! Uber pool is around 150 one way but it can take almost twice the amount of time in commute.

You are neglecting the cost to purchase a car, the fuel, maintenance and insurance and other expenses. You need to change oil, tyres, suspension, have electrical repairs and so on. Only drawback to Uber like services is the lack of seat belts at the back and the occasional erratic driving. Unless you have a very easy commute with easy parking on both ends, app taxis make much more sense. This is even more true in Delhi where there is an excellent metro network. You can quickly cut across the city and avoid traffic and use public transport for the last mile.

Originally Posted by anjan_c2007

The Indian politicians and bureaucrats with basic minimum knowledge of automobile engines, unilaterally say that the older cars cause pollution and need to be scrapped. Delhi despite all the old cars getting scrapped due to the NGT ruling, faced one of the worst smogs in its history during the winter of 2018. The fact that old cars pollute is baseless, untrue and has malafide intentions. It needs to be challenged outright, as an older car if well maintained can be very less polluting, even as compared to an ill maintained BS IV car or another BS IV car whose ECU is malfunctioning.

This is incorrect. Even though the auto lobby might be behind this, it is a fact that newer cars pollute far less than older ones. There could be an isolated example where a newer car is in bad shape while an older one is pristine but if you take a thousand cars that are over 15 years old and compare them to a thousand cars made this year, the pollution levels would be far lower in new cars. In addition, you need better safety technology, better body shells and other improvements. Fifteen years is a good limit for a car to ply in major cities.

[avisidhu]

Originally Posted by navin

.......
BTW do you include EMI, cost of maintenance, repairs, etc. in the total cost of running (Rs. 300/day)?

Most of the time, depreciation alone overshadows all these combined. Specially for new car purchased and sold within 3-5 years, the running would have to be very high or resale exemplary, to tilt the economics against Ola/Uber. Surge prices notwithstanding.

[swami69]

As many have mentioned, the trends are changing with the youngsters. They are OK to spend their money on so many other things, but not on a car. They are pretty happy to take their office bus/van/car or even squeeze in a public transport. There is another example with my daughter herself, just recently.

She wanted to drive a car, applied for the learner's license, went through 20 days of driving school learning and then went for the test.

On the day of the test, the RTO officer came to the point after completing the 2 wheeler tests, and she was the first one to take the car along with him and the driving school owner. The main criteria was, not to get engine switched off, changing gears up to 3rd, take the car to 100 meters, then stop. She did everything correctly, except that she brought the car to a stop, when told, by bringing it to 1st rather than Neutral. OK, it could have been a mistake and they rejected the test. But, the way in which both those guys conducted themselves, so rudely and embarrassing her in front off others, really put her off - she said, Dad, i am fine with OLA/UBER or bus, i do not want this license anymore - That is what today's children are made off.

So, one car down from the sales figures

Swami

[am1m]

I for one am very happy and hope we begin to see this trend in our cities too!

Hearing that car penetration figures are still low and looking at the chaos on our roads today makes me scared about what's in store for us when penetration figures rise! So any trend that might reduce the number of vehicles on our roads is a positive one, though I guess it will only mean more cabs on the road.

About younger people today not being keen on owning cars or learning how to drive, I think that is mainly among the upper middle-class who grew up with parents who already owned cars. So, they have identified the car as a means of transportation and nothing else. For the rest, for whom the first car is basically the first car in their family, the car is still an important status symbol and still an essential purchase as soon as it's affordable.

I too wonder how kids today have the patience to get around everywhere with Uber and other cabs- I hate waiting for one, hate the way rides get cancelled and refused. They're as bad as auto rickshaw drivers these days!

[Lobogris]

Originally Posted by am1m

I for one am very happy and hope we begin to see this trend in our cities too!

Hearing that car penetration figures are still low and looking at the chaos on our roads today makes me scared about what's in store for us when penetration figures rise! So any trend that might reduce the number of vehicles on our roads is a positive one, though I guess it will only mean more cabs on the road.

The chaos on the roads is due to encroachment, illegal stopping and parking, slow vehicles that shouldn't be there (carts, cycle driven vehicles) and bad driving which includes not following lane discipline. In addition, there are relatively few parking facilities in Indian cities. Even Jakarta which is just a little more developed than Delhi has a much better parking scenario. People in India are used to parking wherever they want and for free and therefore we don't have too many proper paid parking multi level type of structures. There are a few in the malls and hospitals and a few more automated ones in Delhi NCR. The need of the hour is to make parking expensive- something like Rs500 per day and 100 per hour for main areas. Then there should be a strict enforcement of parking rules with heavy fines. When this happens, people would learn to park in proper areas and it would become profitable to run parking garages. You will see many more buildings come up with paid proper parking. It would also ensure more people use public transport.

Then you need to ban vendors and cycle rickshaws etc. at least from the city center areas. If you do this, you will see less chaos. However, the awareness is lacking in the police and the municipality and the political will is lacking as well.