[ChiragM]

According to Kantar’s Mobility Futures study, usage of private cars in some of the world’s largest cities will decrease by 10% over the next decade. It was revealed at the UN-Habitat World Urban Forum.



Cars will be replaced by more environment-friendly ways of transport like public transport, cycling and walking. These are expected to account for 49% of all trips undertaken within cities. Cars are expected to account for 46%, while the remaining 5% is expected to be taxi and ride-sharing trips along with other modes like ferries.

Cycling is expected to be the fastest-growing mode of transport. It could rise by 18% by 2030, while walking and public transport usage could rise by 15% and 6% respectively.

31 cities were surveyed and 36.7 million city-dwellers are expected to change the way they travel. Manchester is expected to see the biggest change, followed by Moscow and São Paulo. The most tech-ready cities are said to be Amsterdam, London and Los Angeles.

The study suggests 3 mobility concepts - Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS), which integrates public transport and car / bike sharing to a single app, mobility hubs, which are located outside the cities and commuters can switch from cars to electric buses, bikes and scooters to decongest cities, and autonomous parcel delivery.

However, some cities like Berlin, Amsterdam and New York are prepared for the future of mobility but face a lack of confidence from its citizens.

Link to Team-BHP News

[benbsb29]

Interesting to see not a single Australian city in that list. Was Australia not covered in the survey, or is it a reluctance to ditch private transport?

[Stribog]

Indian cities would see a rapid adoption of public transport. With the current metro construction plans as it is, these metro cities will have completed metro tracks as follows,

City - Completed / underconstruction / approved = total

1) Delhi - 343 / 4 / 57 = 404

2) Mumbai - 31 / 171 / 104 = 306

3) Chennai - 55 / 128 = 183

4) Bangalore - 42 / 80 = 122

5) Hyderabad - 55 / 17 = 72

Currently operational in these cities is 526, by 2026 / 2027 it will be 1087, a straight up doubling.

In addition to this another 10 different cities have metros under construction or approved.

This coupled with ride sharing would mean for longer intracity distances, people will start switching to the Mumbai model in use now of using a local to get to a station and then using rickshaws for last mile connectivity.

I feel that in this decade the govt should do the following to push more people onto public transport,

1) Promote 2 wheeler ride sharing, but with stricter safety norms - I have already used Rapido a few times (for a distance of 4 kms) and it worked, but I took my own helmet every time, as the drivers are supposed to provide this, but never do it. This works for the shortest connectivity options. Get out of a station and have to travel 2-3 kms? Use a bike taxi

2) Strictly enforce fare norms in autos for medium travel of 3-5 kms

3) Heftier parking fees with strict penalties for parking in no parking zones - currently like water, most Indian cities barely charge (if at all) anything for parking and this should change. City roadside parking should be ticketed and charged hefty amounts, build large multi level / basement parking lots near metro stations if people choose to use their cars / bikes to drive from home and these should be relatively lesser priced

These three changes will push Indian cities to adopting mass transit in a much more robust way.

[landcruiser123]

Cars are certainly not sustainable. The downtowns of big cities can't be expanded for additional road space and parking structures. I thought that ride share would form a bigger part of the pie compared to bicycling.

One thing for sure in many of these cities is that bicycling may not sustainable for a good part of the year due to adverse weather conditions. Indian cities really need to solve the problem of the last mile commute. E rickshaws around a bus stand/metro station would be the best solution.

[alpha1]

I have a few things here:
1) people usually behave in some other way (selfish) and speak something else (altruistic)
2) people (especially in developing economies) have a pride in owning and displaying a car (yeah even the Alto / Nano / Celerio)

[GTO]

Originally Posted by ChiragM

Cars will be replaced by more environment-friendly ways of transport like public transport, cycling and walking.

Am already seeing a lot of it happening in my family & friends circle.

1. Walking: People moving their office closer to home (yours truly included) or preferring jobs that are nearby.

2. I know of so many Delhi folk who prefer the excellent Metro to driving. The Metro is going to change how Mumbai travels too. If you haven't visited Mumbai in the recent past, you'll be shocked to see how the entire city has been dug up for Metro work.

3. Uber & Ola have replaced daily driving & even car ownership for many people, including my close cousin who is a driving enthusiast (he keeps his Innova at home). So many youngsters simply aren't buying cars.

The traffic & parking situation is really terrible in the big cities. I personally enjoy driving just early in the morning, and late in the evening.

Cycling is expected to be the fastest-growing mode of transport.

Because of the heat, dust and lack of safety, I don't think this will ever become a popular choice with the middle / upper middle class of India.

[vinya_jag]

I don't believe, it will be any better soon.

I have seen this happen in Bangalore. We started building the Metro in 2002. We all felt, it would be an awesome place, and by the time the first phase finished, our traffic was 3 times worse.
I was travelling 35 Kms from South to East Bangalore in 2007, and there were ring road fly overs being built, and we all felt, once the flyovers were done, it would reduce our travel time. Today, it again is three times worse

Population in Bangalore in 2011 was 9Mil, and by 2021, it is expected to be 14Mil. I don't see it slowing down any sooner. I was reading about how villages were going empty, and how urbanization is going to constantly increase.
https://www.investindia.gov.in/team-...gration-planet

I would agree, if our governments were acting on these problems, but I don't see it happening organically. In Karnataka, administration has actually gone downward. If one is impacted from traffic, don't hope that the govt will solve our problems. I have seen it not happen, this decade. So, I don't hope that it will be solved in the next decade.

So, as GTO says, try getting closer to your office. If that isn't possible, switch jobs, to get you closer to home

Sorry for a sad post.
But I hope I am proven wrong. I love Cycling, and would love to cycle to work. Hopefylly in the next decade, we are all cycling to work

[shipnil]

Originally Posted by GTO

Because of the heat, dust and lack of safety, I don't think this will ever become a popular choice with the middle / upper middle class of India.

Quite true. I myself am a cyclist. I tried to take bicycle to office 3 / 4 times, a 30 min ride, but as highlighted by you, due to heat and safety, abandoned the thought. I had to carry 2 sets of clothes to office. 1 to wear in office and another for return ride. It used to get quite sweaty and the fellow road users were less accommodating of a cyclist during rush hour traffic.

[for_cars1]

Originally Posted by Stribog

......

3) Heftier parking fees with strict penalties for parking in no parking zones - currently like water, most Indian cities barely charge (if at all) anything for parking and this should change. City roadside parking should be ticketed and charged hefty amounts, build large multi level / basement parking lots near metro stations if people choose to use their cars / bikes to drive from home and these should be relatively lesser priced

These three changes will push Indian cities to adopting mass transit in a much more robust way.

I don't subscribe to the idea of penalizing car/bike users who are forced to use their personal vehicles for their travel needs at all. This is like rubbing salt on an already open wound. People will pay and still be forced to use their private vehicles. Not at all fair.

I know for sure that the vast majority of drivers/riders use their personal vehicles because there is literally no reliable and hassle free option to commute on a daily basis. After all no one on earth would want to commute at an average speed of 10km per hour to reach from one point to another point in the city in their personal vehicles.

You may say use BMTC, Auto, Metro blah blah but in a city like Bangalore for instance, public transportation is pathetic to say the least and last mile connectivity for Metro is non-existent. Try getting an auto/ola/uber in the evenings from the metro station to your home (if your home is within 4 KMs away) and you will know the pain.

For a city like Bangalore which has the max density of tax payers (salaried class) and max density of traffic (read road tax payers )(recently was tagged in a newspaper as one of the highest traffic density in the world), its ironic that even a small amount from that tax is not being utilized to improve public transportation and and last mile connectivity. Real pathetic state of affairs. Even if they allow private local bus operators, they will surely solve the traffic needs in a Jiffy as opposed to the lousy state run public transportation.
Even better: Get the metro running on every nook and corner of the City (like in London) and then watch all the private vehicles disappear from the roads automatically. Definitely not impossible to achieve if there is a real intent.

[Arjun Bharadwaj]

Originally Posted by for_cars1

I know for sure that the vast majority of drivers/riders use their personal vehicles because there is literally no reliable and hassle free option to commute on a daily basis. After all, no one on earth would want to commute at an average speed of 10km per hour to reach from one point to another point in the city in their personal vehicles...

Perfectly summed up the sentiments of travellers in Bangalore using own vehicles. Nobody gains pleasure with their left foot/hand placed permanently on the clutch and swimming in smoke and traffic. If there was intent to improve things, it would have happened. Period.

[PointZero]

I am also seeing the same in Kolkata. Not only OLA/UBER, people are using sRide/QuickRide for their daily office. It happened to me also. When my office was just 2.5KM from my flat, I used to take my car everyday as I enjoy the drive. Now my office is 13KM and more importantly the parking charge is Rs. 165/- per day. I am using sRide for last 6 month for office up-down. And today after seeing this thread, I just found that the sRide app also has a report and I have saved 2538 KM which is around 210L of fuel for me in last 6 month.

[BLACKBLADE]

Looking at the decongestion (of cities) perspective, yes it's inevitable that the usage of personal cars will have to come down for the good of the inhabitants and the environment. The amount of time spent in commuting cuts down the quality time one spends at work/family. Earlier the public transportation systems lacked the 'comfort' factor of say a personal car. Now you take the metro and come out as fresh as an apple out of fridge! With faster/cheaper connectivity options on the rise, it's sensible to switch over. From a regular office commuter perspective makes a lot of practical sense.

But the joy/charm/pleasure of having your own personal vehicle at your disposal can't be ruled out altogether. Particularly when last mile connectivity options are not available. From door to door commuting perspective, the practicality and ease of personal vehicles are un-beatable. Take Chennai for example. Metro connectivity there for many major areas, but not all areas are covered. The local train coverage is quite good, but it is congested on most times of the day. Of course there are share-autos, cabs, Auto-Rickshaws and buses but traffic moves at snail's pace during peak hours. You don't usually get from point A to B by just using one mode of transport. Depending on the distance, time and place of commute, it usually takes 2-3 modes of public transportation to get to a place. If connectivity options and infrastructure are improved further, more and more people will switch over.

But all this is a strict no-no for a petrol head . Till the time personal cars are road-legal in the cities, put your right foot on the gas pedal and keep revving...er keep going.

[Zed]

When I consider cities I have visited or lived in where public transport was my preferred option they had the following in common,

1. Not just good public transport but an integrated system making it convenient to switch from a bus to a metro or a tram. Usually with a single ticket\card.
2. Footpaths and walkways that are safe and clean. And well lit in the evening. Walkways in the vicinity of parks, water-bodies, historic parts of the city is an added incentive to travel by foot.
3. Limited and expensive parking that limits using a car within city limits.
4. Convenient last mile connections like uber or e-rickshaws when walking isnt an option due to weather or mobility restrictions.
5. Wide-spread recognition of the benefits and practicality of walking and cycling. Which only makes sense if the air quality is in the "breathable" spectrum.

[Rajeevraj]

Not sure if a 10% decrease will make any significant difference on the ground especially in India.

The Mobility as a Service concept talks about one very critical element. The ability to combine multiple modes of transport into one single app/solution. Unfortunately I don't see that happening in India- We seem to be running behind one specific public transport service. Currently a lot of the focus is on the metro. While an extensive metro network is critical and has to be done, in cities like Bangalore the other public transport systems like suburban rail should also be given top priority. Not to forget the Bus transport system which is the biggest people carrier.

When all of these come together is when the personal usage of cars will come down.

[laser2707]

Being a car nut since when I was a kid, most of my adult life I have owned a car. For a 3 year spell, I was working in Gurgaon & my family was in Mumbai. The family car remained in Mumbai & I could have availed the car scheme in my new organization.

Soon better sense prevailed & I woke up to the convenience of not owning a car & putting up with the hazards & road rage of NCR traffic. I stayed in a place which was walking distance from my place of work. On weekends Ola+Metro helped me reach anywhere my fancy took me in NCR.

On long weekends, Myles came to my rescue & I rented a car to drive around my favorite spots in NCR. Once I rented a Nano from Myles. At a public parking spot, the attendant attracted by the stickers on the car started asking me about the Rental Service. After explaining the cost, he remarked that's even cheaper than an auto!!!

I still remain a Petrol-head, but I am convinced car ownership for commuters is a thing of the past. Cars will continue to be owned but will be used for leisure, for road trips & maybe for enthusiasts.