Team-BHP (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/)

-   The International Automotive Scene (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/international-automotive-scene/)

-   -   USA: Average age of cars increases to a new record of 12.6 years in 2024 (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/international-automotive-scene/281064-usa-average-age-cars-increases-new-record-12-6-years-2024-a.html)

According to a study by S&P Global Mobility, the average age of cars and trucks in the USA has risen to 12.6 years in 2024.

Todd Campau, Aftermarket Practice Lead, S&P Global Mobility, stated, "With average age growth, more vehicles are entering the prime range for aftermarket service, typically from 6 to 14 years of age." He further added, "With more than 110 million vehicles in that sweet spot -- reflecting nearly 38% of the fleet on the road -- we expect continued growth in the volume of vehicles in that age range to rise to an estimated 40% through 2028."



The study also showed that vehicle scrappage rates in the USA have mostly remained steady. As of January 2024, the scrappage rate was 4.6%, just slightly higher than the 4.5% rate during the same month in 2023.

The data shows that since 2020, 27 million passenger cars were scrapped, while only a little over 13 million new cars were registered. On the other hand, 26 million light trucks were scrapped, while 46 million new trucks were registered. Campau stated, "Consumers have continued to demonstrate a preference for utility vehicles, and manufacturers have adjusted their portfolio accordingly, which continues to reshape the composition of the fleet of vehicles in operation in the market."

The study also shows that the number of EVs on the road is increasing. The average age of EVs in the USA is 3.5 years and has mostly remained the same since 2019.

Campau said, "We started to see headwinds in EV sales growth in late 2023, and though there will be some challenges on the road to EV adoption that could drive EV average age up, we still expect significant growth in the share of electric vehicles in operation over the next decade."

Source: PRNewswire

Link to Team-BHP news

I wonder if it's because:

* Given the state of the US economy, more people can no longer afford to keep switching cars.
* Market maturity- a car is a means of transport, not a status symbol any longer, so why keep upgrading.
* Consciousness about environmental impact - continuing to use a car has a lower carbon footprint than buying a new one.

But like phone manufacturers, I completely expect car manufacturers to also start building in planned obsolescence through software bloat, that will force people to switch their perfectly usable cars in the future.

I have a perfectly good phone right now that I've been using for the past 6 years and would like to keep using for at least another 4. But the only reason I'll have to 'upgrade' sooner is because an essential app that I need for office work can't be installed on my phone OS version and there is a version limit (purely arbitrary) beyond which I cannot upgrade my phone OS! Such a stupid reason to switch a phone. With cars getting more software driven, I'm counting on manufacturers to start playing this game soon. With warranty voids if you attempt to upgrade versions yourself.

Why so low? I was expecting 20-25years, that's how long ICE engine lasts right.

Even I see very few 10year old cars in Bangalore, I think most older cars are sold in Tier 2 & 3 cities as used.

Average age of cars. Not the maximum age of cars that people hold onto.

20-25 years is nothing for a well maintained ICE engine. It is the other parts that may give up before the engine does. Also parts like gaskets will be harder to source. Otherwise, not sure if ICE engines lives are capped at 20-25 years.

Right, so if one car used for 20 years, 3 cars used for only 10 years, the average is 12.5 years. So, my question is why maximum cars are scrapped well before 12.5 years.

They have a large used cars market, still 12.5years is too less. All those concerns about scrapping cars as EVs come looks silly, we anyways are scrapping every 12.5 years "average".

The cars that are already in use are usually well engineered, more reliable and usually the model is to have a beater car ( for short runs, school drops, etc) and a bigger MPV for longer trips and as what has been commented, car has become more of a utility (Tesla) rather than a status symbol IMO.
Of the 3 points listed, my only reservation is on #3 looking at the pickup trucks sales here and how many ply for regular commute , there could be a minority who decide on that parameter.

It’s the average age of cars (and light trucks) running on the street, by looking at the total vehicles in operation in a particular year. That’s the definition used in that article.

It talks about ~290 mn vehicles in operation in 2024, with 90 mn under 6 years old, 110 mn vehicles aged 6 - 14 years and rest over that. 12.5 seems quite decent by that standards, much higher probably, if compared to India.

Economic state aside, it's good to see that people are holding on to cars for longer. People from Delhi can only drool at such statistics, thanks to NGT. Cars made after the early 2000s can easily serve reliably for 20-25 years with general maintenance and moderate usage. Of course they might change hands a few times, but at least the machines will be put to use by their new owners. It is sad to see cars headed to scrapyards at 10-15 years of age. Most of them, especially petrol ones, haven't even clocked 1 lakh kms during their lifetime. If this is not sheer wastage of resources, then what is?

The same trend can be seen in many other countries. Certainly here in Europe the average age of cars has been steadily increasing.

The reason vary somewhat country by country, but there are similar themes to be found among the various countries. In random order

Young people get their first car much later in life. Especially those living I say European cities simply don't need a car. By and large there is good and cheap public transport. My kids are a good example. They did not get a car till they had their first kid themselves. In the west that is in your early thirties. Not because they could not afford a car till than, but they just did not need a car. Car ownership would have been a burden rather than a convenience before their babies arrived!

The same generation does worry more about the environment, so they tend to buy a car, be it ICE or EV much later in life.

A lot of people bought a new or second hand car during the pandemic years. Those cars were relative expensive in those days, with high asking prices and no discounts. People are holding on to these expensive cars.

Modern cars, with decent maintenance last easily 200K, 30 years.

A lot of people are “on the fence” whether to buy ICE or EV. Most simply can't afford or don't want to spend huge amounts of money on an EV. So they keep their current ICE and the odd hybrid running for some more years till the EV market is more settled and more mature.

People not trading in/up has a knock on effect on the second hand market with fewer models available and prices relatively high.

Many (western) countries have decided to put a stop to the sale of ICE vehicle by 2030-35. That is not that far away. People are hanging on to their current rides, to see how this will all work out.

In many western countries major cities and town have active policies in place to reduce the number of cars on the road. Think congestion charges, ridiculous expensive parking, (that is if you can find an empty parking spot in the first place). New offices being built are not allowed to build parking for employees.
There are subsidies on commuting by bicycle and or public transport. Etc etc.

Once the EV market matures things might change again. There is going to be a period when ICE really get phased out., which is different from ICE cars not being sold anymore. So that is likely to lower the average car age for a while.
Jeroen

I understood my mistake there, I assumed car usage average age.

The trend is very "clean". This implies it has nothing to do with economy or model launches or other factors.

To me, it looks like older cars have become more reliable and trouble free. Two decades ago, it was primarily Japanese cars. But perhaps now, Koreans, European & even American cars work fairly well even when they are 10+ years old.

Am I the only one who thinks that since older cars are on older pollution norms, they generally fare better in terms of performance, vehicle weight & fuel mileage?

The past decade has been very quick in implementing environmental norms across the world. Now, we're settling to minor changes every 1-3 years or so including OBD and all.

Apart from that, maturity in customers about environment, economic situation, etc could be strong reasons.

Not really, as a general rule even though weight has gone up, so has performance and in most cases also fuel efficiency. Check the first Ford Fiesta against the current model. But of course, the curve is flattening of course.

If you add hybrid into the equation that has given a consumable recent step change in fuel efficiency at still higher weight!

OBD2 has been available, if not mandatory since 1998 if I remember correctly. Prior to 1998 many cars had OBD1 fitted as standard.

It may also be because younger cars are being taken off the road disproportionately higher, and older cars have better chances of surviving minor accidents
https://autos.yahoo.com/twenty-perce...141500211.html

Wondering, if they do a similar analysis in India what would be the average years. I am confident it would be somewhere in 5 years.

Thing is the way new car price is going, I expect the average in India also to go up.