[TusharK]

The scooter segment which has been booming for the past 7 years registered single-digit growth in the first five months of FY 2018-19. Sales grew by 6.77% compared to 18% during the same period last fiscal.



The motorcycle segment however registered higher sales compared to the last fiscal. Sales grew from 8% in the first 5 months of FY2017-18 to 14.67%.

Yamaha has registered a slump in its scooter sales during the period of April-August 2018. Scooter sales are down 13%. Hero MotoCorp registered a drop of over 11%, however Honda registered a growth of 7% during the same period. Motorcycle sales for all three manufacturers are up by 17%, 12% and 9% respectively.

According to the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM), the two-wheeler segment as a whole grew by 11.50% during the period of April-August 2018. The domestic passenger vehicle segment grew by almost 10%, while 3-wheelers clocked 44% growth. Medium and heavy commercial vehicles (M&HCV) and light commercial vehicles (LCV) registered a growth of 55% and 34% respectively.

Source: Business Standard

Link to Team-BHP News

[payeng]

The last 7 years has been of discovering the convenience of riding CVT/automatic transmission geared scooters in our crowded cities/towns. Hence the crazy year on Year double digit growth.

Common sense says that from now on the growth of the Scooter Segment would be in line with the growth of Urbanization in India.

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by TusharK

Yamaha has registered a slump in its scooter sales during the period of April-August 2018. Scooter sales are down 13%. Hero MotoCorp registered a drop of over 11%

The market share for both these companies are rather less in the scooter segment, so the percentage values don't hold real weightage in comparison. Yamaha sells around 30k scooters a month on an average, whereas Hero sells around 60k scooters.

The figures pale in comparison to Honda with sales of around 360k scooters on an average per month. Net effect - If scooter sales percentage on an average is affected (that too over a 5 month period!), there can only be one scooter responsible for it - the Activa.

Originally Posted by TusharK

Honda registered a growth of 7% during the same period.

Again - I would like to point out that base figure here makes quite a difference. Sales are still growing, but nearing 300k units a month - the growth is going to be in single digit percentages only going forward.

Originally Posted by payeng

The last 7 years has been of discovering the convenience of riding CVT/automatic transmission geared scooters in our crowded cities/towns.

True. Another factor I'd like to point out is the long retention periods for such scooters. Even households that keep changing cars regularly keep a trusty old Activa for household errands. More often than not - these scooters are never exchanged unless they start falling apart!

[GTO]

The volumes will always be there - our 2 wheeler market is the biggest in the world! But the growth will further slow down in the coming two years. Reason = prices will be going up due to the mandatory ABS / CBS from April 2019. And exactly a year later, BS6 is going to kick in. Both of these will increase prices in an extremely price-sensitive scooter market.

Credit for this point goes to a Kotak Research Report I read recently.

[CARDEEP]

Originally Posted by GTO

The volumes will always be there - our 2 wheeler market is the biggest in the world! But the growth will further slow down in the coming two years. Reason = prices will be going up due to the mandatory ABS / CBS from April 2019. And exactly a year later, BS6 is going to kick in. Both of these will increase prices in an extremely price-sensitive scooter market.

Credit for this point goes to a Kotak Research Report I read recently.

That will mean the market will graduate to power scooters from cheap commuters of today with 10-20 years old engine tech.
Plus gradually the traffic will go down due to high costs. I believe it's a win-win for drivers/riders & environment.

[druva]

Originally Posted by CrAzY dRiVeR

The market share for both these companies are rather less in the scooter segment, so the percentage values don't hold real weightage in comparison. Yamaha sells around 30k scooters a month on an average, whereas Hero sells around 60k scooters.

...

Is the sales figures for other 2 wheeler manufacturers available? I am looking for scooters for my daughter and want to identify short list apart from Activa. For now it seems only Activa, Access 125 and Jupiter

[CrAzY dRiVeR]

Originally Posted by druva

Is the sales figures for other 2 wheeler manufacturers available? I am looking for scooters for my daughter and want to identify short list apart from Activa. For now it seems only Activa, Access 125 and Jupiter

Here you go -

https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/motor...-analysis.html (June 2018: Two Wheeler Sales Figures & Analysis)

However, I would request you to select the better product for her than the better selling priduct.

[payeng]

Originally Posted by GTO

The volumes will always be there - our 2 wheeler market is the biggest in the world! But the growth will further slow down in the coming two years. Reason = prices will be going up due to the mandatory ABS / CBS from April 2019. And exactly a year later, BS6 is going to kick in. Both of these will increase prices in an extremely price-sensitive scooter market.

Credit for this point goes to a Kotak Research Report I read recently.

I dont agree to the Kotak Report. The increase in price due to ABS introduction would have no effect. What does one expect, that people would start using / buying 4Ws / cars to commute just becuase of increase in prices? 2W's would still be much more affordable to commute that use a 4W.

The real reason why the growth of 2W's would slow down in India is because of the growth of the Indian economy / Indians becoming richer.

• When more and more people would be able to afford a comfortable car/4W in order to commute that too in a hot / sweltering country like ours.. why would anyone want to commute in a 2W?

• Also easy and convenient access to public transport / metro rails could also add to the slow down in 2W growth.

The reason why India is the largest 2W market in the world is because about 99.99% of 2Ws are bought and used for commuting.