[samarjitdhar]

Originally Posted by apachelongbow

whole idea of FDI is to ensure deep pocketed investors, with experience in their core areas come and invest in India. As you rightly said the beer maker doesnt have either core competence in aviation, nor deep enough pockets, nor knowledge of the industry to run an airline. If a big foreign airline now invests in KF, it will gain money, core competence and international knowledge in running successful airlines. This is the way forward.

Although this is kind of OT, let's address this one by one. If I had been following the news correctly apart from the beer maker none of the other airlines have said that they are cash strapped or dying for FDI infusion. In fact both Spicejet and Indigo turned out profits and are doing very well. Even Naresh Goel is not overtly enthusiastic about FDI in aviation. To me the aviation sector in India suffers from two main things, severe lack of infrastructure and extremely high taxes on jet fuel. Also I have not heard or read about the foreign airlines clamoring hard to open up the aviation sector so that a slew of new airlines can start operating. Please correct if I am wrong in the assumptions/observations I have made here. So to me as of now it looks like this is just some kind of an economic policy grandstanding by our GOI to please somebody which I am entirely not sure who. Of course time will tell if there is a philanthropist airline who is going to come and bail out the beer maker. Right now the beer maker is trying to have his cake and eat it too. I don't expect any foreign airline who picks up stake in KF, if that happens that is, to molly coddle the beer maker. The first thing they would do is give him a resounding kick on his back side.

Originally Posted by apachelongbow

Regarding retail, the benifits are even bigger. A large Walmart, CareFour or IKEA eliminates the much hated dalal/middleman from the equation. These stores take produce, raw material and goods directly from the farmer/vendor. Infact they have long range tieups with small producers who work exclusively for them. Plus guaranteed prices which are far cheaper than lalaji stores.

CPI and food inflation is mainly due to high hoarding by lalaji and middlemen. Once these goon are out of the equation prices will automatically rationalize. This is the sole reason why most of the politicans hate FDI in retail. Their votebase will be left penniless.

Now lets address this elephant in the room. Discounting the fact that a lot of the states are in fact not going to let any of these big box retailers operate in their states, the claim that their very presence will eliminate the hated "dalal/middlemen" from the equation sounds funny. I agree that these big box retailers source in bulk and get into long range tie ups but is the expectation that these large numbers of middle men or dalaals are going to say "Oh, Walmart is here. Let's retire to the Himalayas" and completely perform the Houdini's act on us. Something tells me that's a grossly wrong assumption. It is their survival at stake and they are not going to go anywhere. They will force these big box retailers to source from them either individually or forming cartels thereby pushing the prices further up because now we have to help pay for the profits of the big box retailers. Tell me one thing. If dalaal/middlemen and hoarding was the problem, why do we need Walmart and CareFour to come to India and help us remove them? Why cannot the government remove them? Please do point out anything illogical that you see in what I have stated here. I anyway have different complaints about these big box retailers and they have been found to be generally driving down prosperity of the average citizen but that is a different discussion anyway.

Frankly I don't see these steps addressing structural issues that ail our country. I find them just piecemeal approaches to apply band aid and praying to the almighty that things will fix themselves. I already found price of bread increased 11% just after this hike. There are various reasons behind that but right now the fuel price hike is being cited by everybody asking for higher prices. Sure prices have risen steadily for some commodities which are due to various reasons like production and supply issues, higher demand, rise in costs. etc. But to outright deny and claim that the rise in fuel prices will only increase prices by 1-2%, though technically and mathematically correct, when one steps out in the actual world on the streets we find the rise between 10-20% suddenly, should break some hallowed notions we hold about how our economy works. While we have found a rise of 10-20% rise in prices of commodities maybe in the last 6 months, we are finding and will find the same amount of rise in one go because of the fuel price hike. I am not saying that we must continue using subsidies but unless we address the structural problems of our nation we will always land in situations where we celebrate the removal of one subsidy and then find our hands forced to provide subsidies somewhere else. That is my only beef and sorry about the long post.

[apachelongbow]

Originally Posted by samarjitdhar

Although this is kind of OT, let's address this one by one. If I had been following the news correctly apart from the beer maker none of the other airlines have said that they are cash strapped or dying for FDI infusion. In fact both Spicejet and Indigo turned out profits and are doing very well. Even Naresh Goel is not overtly enthusiastic about FDI in aviation.

Now lets address this elephant in the room. Discounting the fact that a lot of the states are in fact not going to let any of these big box retailers operate in their states, the claim that their very presence will eliminate the hated "dalal/middlemen" from the equation sounds funny. I agree that

Frankly I don't see these steps addressing structural issues that ail our country. I find them just piecemeal approaches to apply band aid and praying to the almighty that things will fix themselves. I already found price of bread increased 11% just after this hike. There are various reasons behind that but right now the fuel price hike is being cited everybody asking for higher prices. Sure prices have risen steadily for some commodities which are due to various reasons like production and supply issues, higher demand, rise in costs. etc. But to outright deny and claim that the rise in fuel prices will only increase prices by 1-2%, though technically and mathematically correct, when one steps out in the actual world on the streets we find the rise between 10-20% suddenly, should break some hallowed notions we hold about how our economy works. While we have found a rise of 10-20% rise in prices of commodities maybe in the last 6 months, we are finding and will find the same amount of rise in one go because of the fuel price hike. I am not saying that we must continue using subsidies but unless we address the structural problems of our nation we will always land in situations where we celebrate the removal of one subsidy and then find our hands forced to provide subsidies somewhere else. That is my only beef and sorry about the long post.

Let me try and answer one by one. Regarding aviation, you are right. The bane is irrational taxation on fuel and airport handling charges. Ajit Singh too has said the same, and he is lobbying hard to rectify them. Regarding Jet/Indigo they are opposed to FDI reason being jet is almost 80% funded by foreign non aviation players (in their balance sheets) and Indigo is funded by an NRI upto 49%. Now both these airlines have nothing to gain and only to lose if FDI comes in. Spice/Go and KF will gain quite a bit if some big airline invests in them.
What is in it for big international airlines. Well India is bang in the crossroads of all the east west traffic. Also it has a lot of originating and terminating traffic. If we look at airbus/boeing prediction, they predict a minimum of 1000 aircraft needed by 2030 to just handle Indian traffic. Almost 50% of Emirates traffic either originates, transits or terminates in India!! and KF if nothing holds rights to most of the lucarative sectors and routes, this is of primary interest to investors.
Secondary benifit is if international airlines have subsidaries here, their government will lobby Indian govt to change antiquated DGCA rules and we will finally mordernize to the rest of the world.

Walmart and CareFour are known for uniform low pricing and year round guaranteed availability of produce and products. Their sales volume is so large that they override lalaji and dalal lobbies by a fair margin. Infact it will kill dalals for sure. Also they are ruthless in driving down prices!! So dalal lobby or not, as long as they drive down prices, inflation and CPI will lower!! Yes the downside is Walmart eats away single retail stores, the kirana and the mom and pop stores, but hey so what!! These guys loot anyways, so no sympathy if they drown!!
Secondary benifit is the immense increase in jobs in retail, which is what we need right now. Both aviation and retail create so many jobs and if these sectors do well, our country does well.

Regarding rising prices, the whole philosophy of a Walmart is to give guaranteed low prices. So if bread has increased 11% today, with a walmart branded bread, tomorrow, there would be no or marginal increase.
And the breadmakers who are so happily increasing prices at the drop of a hat will be forced to be more lean or perish. Thats the beauty of big business.

Subsidy is ancient history and needs to go. People who can afford manage and the rest have to compromise. Sorry but everywhere in the world socialism has lead to a downfall, latest being Greece. Why should whole of India subsidize diesel for about 5% of vehicle owners?

If fuel cost increase due to increased competition manufacturers and farmers need to optimize. The days of lobbying and price rigging will now be gone.


The whole hullaboo on FDI in retail is due to this real fear amongst the dalals and their supporting parties of losing their cash cow!!

Also big business in retail will help setup a chain of procurement, processing and cold storage of food directly from farmers. So the wastage we see in food corporation of India godowns and elsewhere will now stop. What India desperately needs is a nationwide chain of cold storage. Walmart and others will do this first!!!

[vina]

Originally Posted by apachelongbow

Let me try and answer one by one. ...

Guys, mods, wouldn't a different thread be a better place for this discussion? e.g. this one http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shifti...-good-bad.html

Why not keep the present thread to issues related (directly or at least indirectly) diesel prices.

[apachelongbow]

Originally Posted by vina

Guys, mods, wouldn't a different thread be a better place for this discussion? e.g. this one http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shifti...-good-bad.html

Why not keep the present thread to issues related (directly or at least indirectly) diesel prices.

agreed! Thanks. Mods is it possible to shift the above few posts to the relevant threads?

[one-77]

Originally Posted by StarrySky

. Ironically, what has closed in the last 2 years are 2 Varkey's (supermarkets) and 1 Nilgiris!!

I hear that Varkey's was a rapid expansion plan gone all wrong. These guys were doing good business even when they were only a stone's throw away from biggies like Big Bazaar and Reliance Fresh. But greed killed them!

I don't know if opening our gates to retail MNC will actually force neighbourhood shops into closure, as our economic realities are different from those in the US or Europe. And anyway, in India these retail giants are likely to focus on the bigger cities. But it is very likely to hit our small supermarkets, who won't be able to compete with biggies, whether Indian or foreign. Anyway here is an article from The Independent on the impact of Tesco (UK's leading supermarket chain) on small businesses, and how they've grown powerful enough to dictate terms to farmers over the last decade.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/analysis-and-features/the-big-question-is-tesco-now-too-powerful-in-britain-and-can-its-growth-ever-be-checked-1637575.html

[Wolfheart]

Originally Posted by Hayek

Complete rubbish. Please cite one study in a respectable scientific journal that shows that GM crops cause cancer. It galls me that people make all kinds of idiotic statements without bothering to verify facts. Genetic modification is no different from what farmers have been doing for thousands of years, through selective breeding, grafting and more recently, hybridisation. This is just a more direct (or complicated) way of achieving the same results.

So according to you there's no link between certain strains of Genetically Modified foods and ailments such as allergies, insulin disorders, compromised immune system, accelerated aging, organ failure and cancer.

•Genetic engineering is not, as proponents claim, an extension of natural plant breeding. While natural breeding takes place only between related kinds of life, genetic engineering happens in a lab, where tissue cultured plant cells undergo a GM gene insertion process that couldn’t happen in nature. This is not in and of itself a bad thing.
•One of the problems, say the researchers, is that genetic engineering is imprecise and the results are unpredictable, with mutations changing the nutritional content of food, crop performance, and toxic effects, among other things. Every generation of GMO crops interacts with more organisms, creating more opportunities for unwanted side effects.
•GMO technology is becoming more precise, but the authors contend that accidents will always happen and, in any case, plant biotechnologists don’t really know much at all about crop genomes--so inserting genes at a supposedly safe area could still lead to all sorts of side effects.
•GMO crops can be toxic in three ways: The genetically modified gene itself (i.e. Bt toxin in insecticidal crops); mutagenic or gene regulatory effects created by the GMO transformation process; and toxic residues created by farming practices (i.e. from the Roundup herbicide used on GMO Roundup Ready crops).
•GMO food regulation varies widely by country. In the U.S., the FDA doesn’t have a required GMO food safety assessment process--just a voluntary program for review of GMO foods before they go on the market (not all commercialized GMO food crops have done this).
•Independent GMO crop risk research is hard to come by because, as the report explains, "independent research on GM crop risks is not supported financially--and because industry uses its patent-based control of GM crops to restrict independent research. Research that has been suppressed includes assessments of health and environmental safety and agronomic performance of GM crops." A 2010 licensing agreement between Monsanto and USDA scientists should make it easier to conduct research--but the report explains that it’s still restrictive.
Source: http://www.fastcoexist.com/1680125/g...d-is-dangerous

"Eating GM foods could give you cancer > http://rense.com/general32/Eating.htm

Originally Posted by Hayek

Even the Europeans who oppose GM foods only claim that there is no proof that GM crops don't cause cancer when ingested over long periods of time - and cite the rubbish "precautionary principle" to ban them.

Just refer to the link pased above. I hope you'll agree that Scotland is located in Europe and not ask for a citation or a map.

Originally Posted by Hayek

If this principle were followed, there could be no scientific progress as no one would be able to prove that something does not cause harm over a long period of time without using it for a long period of time.

So just because you're willing to volunteer as a lab rat or guinea pig in the name of perceived scientific progress, should entire poplulations do the same?

Originally Posted by Hayek

At any rate, GM crops have been used in the US for c 20 years now, and I am not aware of any cancer epidemic yet. (But who knows, may be they take 90 years to kill you).

Laughable(The utter ignorance, not the sarcasm).http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/19/op....16308287.html

Originally Posted by Hayek

Further, foreign retailers are no more likely than Indian retailers to sell GM crops.

Keep dreaming.

http://www.businessinsider.com/walma...labeled-2012-8

[samarjitdhar]

Originally Posted by vina

Guys, mods, wouldn't a different thread be a better place for this discussion? e.g. this one http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shifti...-good-bad.html

Why not keep the present thread to issues related (directly or at least indirectly) diesel prices.

Yes I think its better to move the posts to this thread.

Originally Posted by apachelongbow

The whole hullaboo on FDI in retail is due to this real fear amongst the dalals and their supporting parties of losing their cash cow!!

That is very true. So Uttar Pradesh has already decided not to allow multi brand retail and I am sure a lot of other states will follow including Congress ruled ones. Good or bad so it looks like its already a non-starter. In fact the billions of FDI expected in the single brand retail sector has only stacked up a paltry amount of about 40 million only. So lets see how far this ball rolls.

Originally Posted by apachelongbow

Also big business in retail will help setup a chain of procurement, processing and cold storage of food directly from farmers. So the wastage we see in food corporation of India godowns and elsewhere will now stop. What India desperately needs is a nationwide chain of cold storage. Walmart and others will do this first!!!

You really expect all that to happen . Look at the state of infrastructure and corruption that exists at every level. You really think Walmart is going to come to India and help us fix these evils. Well at the expense of not continuing this debate any more I will keep my fingers doubly crossed. And I am going to be dead serious about that.

[Hayek]

Originally Posted by Wolfheart

So according to you there's no link between certain strains of Genetically Modified foods and ailments such as allergies, insulin disorders, compromised immune system, accelerated aging, organ failure and cancer.

Yes there is none that is scientifically proven and demonstrated. There are always the odd idiot who makes scare mongering claims who will not be convinced by the lack of evidence. But both the links you provided were arbitrary statements and not articles with any kind of proof.

Wal-mart and every other retailer in the US does sell GM crops without labelling, because there is no such labelling requirement in the US. As a result, I don't have to be a guinea pig today - 350 million Americans have acted as such. But I would be perfectly happy to try out new products including food items without requiring them to be proven safe over the long term.

I agree that the NY Times op ed you linked was laughable - and even it does not claim any link with GM crops.

[RS_DEL]

Originally Posted by Hayek

Complete rubbish. Please cite one study in a respectable scientific journal that shows that GM crops cause cancer. It happily uses poisonous materials to adulterate normal crops.

The entire brouhaha about GM is no more than political chicanery.

My daughter was interning this year with a law firm and I have seen the work she did while researching the subject as her firm was involved in a matter on the subject.

The entire nonsense about genetic modification has politicians doing what they do best. Making money, impeding progress.

A lot of the info on the link I am pasting below will for certain be exaggerated self praise but there has to be some merit in the contract farming model introduced in India. If that were not the case the pepsi/frito lay plants would have had shut shop long back and our children would be deprived of one of their preferred staples i.e. chips.

http://pepsicoindia.co.in/purpose/en...h-farmers.html

[Wolfheart]

Originally Posted by Hayek

Yes there is none that is scientifically proven and demonstrated. There are always the odd idiot who makes scare mongering claims who will not be convinced by the lack of evidence. But both the links you provided were arbitrary statements and not articles with any kind of proof.

Originally Posted by Hayek

But I would be perfectly happy to try out new products including food items without requiring them to be proven safe over the long term.

Supposed lack of evidence does not prove that all GM produce is harmless either. For instance, only a few decades ago there were similar ignorant morons who would vehemently deny a link between smoking and cancer. Then there were imbeciles binging on diet sodas thinking they were a healthier alternative. Most of us (I hope) know the dangers of aspartame now.

Evidence and information from clinical trials have historically been suppressed by corporations with interests, often in collusion with governmental food and drug administration departments. Whistleblowers like Dr. Stanley Ewen seem like 'scare mongering idiots' to ignorant blockheads for whom distorted news reported by mass media is the only true gospel.

I'm not obliged to spoonfeed anyone with hard evidence. I'm pointing out at warnings by qualified people, which I and many other people find hard to ignore.

In the age of information, ignorance is a choice - Danny Miller

Moving on now, does anyone wish to discuss if we need multinational retail giants like Wal-Mart in India? Any perceived advantages / disadvantages?

[faustus77]

Hi everybody
Opening up the retail sector is definitely more friendly.
You enter a store you have the option of comparing prices whereas when you visit your neighborhood store you do not have that option.You go there you ask for it and you pay.
Two examples
I bought from a supermarket(50000 sq feet space)Wipro honey as I could compare.Wipro offered approximately 40%more than Dabur at the same price.Wipro could afford to sell at a lower price as no celebirity(read Amitabh Bacchhan)was endorsing it.An executive of Dabur was on record saying the same thing.
Pineapple cream biscuits 70 gms by Parle and 60 gms by Sunfeast.(Shah Rukh endorses it).
Over and above that they offer items, such as toothpastes, at less than the MRP.No kirana store does it.
Then they have special offers.I bought digestive biscuits 2 for the price of one as they were manufactured 3 months ago(shelf life 9 months)
They offer home delivery if your total purchases are more than rs 1500.
They accept credit cards with no extra charge.
The kirana guy is across the road and the super market is a 7/8 minute walk.For me anytime worth it.
Regards

[vina]

Originally Posted by Wolfheart

... Then there were imbeciles binging on diet sodas thinking they were a healthier alternative. Most of us (I hope) know the dangers of aspartame now.

Diet colas are not as harmful as the regular ones, and frankly I am one of the imbeciles who would want to be illuminated about the dangers of Aspartame - I don't know of any.

Originally Posted by Wolfheart

I'm not obliged to spoonfeed anyone with hard evidence. I'm pointing out at warnings by qualified people, which I and many other people find hard to ignore.

In the age of information, ignorance is a choice - Danny Miller

Moving on now, does anyone wish to discuss if we need multinational retail giants like Wal-Mart in India? Any perceived advantages / disadvantages?

"does anyone wish to discuss" - what is there to discuss, you seem to have hard evidence on everything, and those who disagree are imbeciles. A quotation from a not-so-famous actor is should surely be the guiding principle for us.

[gthang]

Originally Posted by Wolfheart

Moving on now, does anyone wish to discuss if we need multinational retail giants like Wal-Mart in India? Any perceived advantages / disadvantages?

I do NOT think we need retail giants in India, and agree with your points. I really dont know what evidence you can provide on this forum to convince Team BHPians about the health risks of GM, but for most people, one look at the obesity levels and health issues rampant in the western world should be enough.

From the looks of things, most people just want WalMart, etc., for the convenience, and "perceived" savings, and hopefully cleaner atmosphere with hopes of Developed world shopping experience. Just eagerly awaiting to be prey for the marketing experts in strategic product placement so that a shopper with a list for 10 items goes home with 20. A new generation of American type "Junk" shoppers waiting. Just hope India's junkyards can keep up.

Dont think many people are concerned about the long term effects to the country and it's main demographic, the agricultural sector. Not only are the GM crops not healthy (pending investigation by some), they usually are engineered for single crops so that the farmer has to keep going back to them for their "specification" seed. So, what's preventing them from setting seed prices?

If these arguments are scare mongering, why is it that farming is heavily subsidized in the US? How come the system does not work in it's origin country?

Cheers

[Hayek]

Originally Posted by Wolfheart

Moving on now, does anyone wish to discuss if we need multinational retail giants like Wal-Mart in India? Any perceived advantages / disadvantages?

There is nothing to discuss. There are NO disadvantages from allowing MNC retail giants in - they are, for the foreseeable future, going to have a tiny share of the Indian market, and are going to find it tough to compete with our child labour abusing, sales tax evading, home delivery based small retailers. Those of us who wish to go and shop in these retailers can do so, those of us who wish to get stuff delivered at home by calling the next door kirana can do so as well. So this is what I call a "no regrets" move - it gets foreign investment into the country, sends a positive signal to markets, helps bring some supply chain technologies in, helps combat protectionism against our IT exports in the West by demonstrating that trade is a two way street, helps keep our local large format retailers on their toes, and will not materially harm those small retailers who are customer focussed.

Originally Posted by vina

"does anyone wish to discuss" - what is there to discuss, you seem to have hard evidence on everything, and those who disagree are imbeciles. A quotation from a not-so-famous actor is should surely be the guiding principle for us.

Well said, thanks.

[one-77]

Well if there's one thing the discussions on this thread and The Official Fuel Prices Thread and Rationalising Diesel Prices thread have proven, it is only that these discussions are pointless. Whether it be GM foods, FDI, "free" market capitalism, Manmohanomics, fuel subsidy, tax breaks and freebies for corporates, or any such thing, those who think they're good for the country and themselves will believe they are, and those believe otherwise will keep believing so. Evidence or no evidence, there simply is no convincing the other side. It's akin to debating religion and politics. It isn't about evidence, it's just about belief. It's only what we've been indoctrinated at home, at schools, at our places of worship. What we've taught ourselves. It's what we want to believe. And there is no way someone else can convince us to rethink or relearn.