Team-BHP - My thoughts on the Budget 2018
Team-BHP

Team-BHP (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/)
-   Shifting gears (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shifting-gears/)
-   -   My thoughts on the Budget 2018 (https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shifting-gears/194966-my-thoughts-budget-2018-a.html)

Good:
1. Bharat Mala - 35,000 km of roads as well as a hike of 20% on spending on the infrastructure projects. -> Positive for commercial vehicles, roads trips, in general to improve ease of movement.
2. MSME companies with revenue upto Rs. 250 crore to pay 25% corporate tax. Earlier, companies above Rs. 50 crore paid 30% corporate tax. -> 99% of tax filing companies will fall under this. Most auto ancillaries will be benefitted.
3. Credit to rural economy for increasing the financial penetration in automobiles, especially 2 wheeler, tractor and farm equipment -> Good for two-wheeler manufacturers.
4. Rs. 16,000 crore to electrify rural India. -> Will lead to long-term support for electric vehicles (EV industry).
5. Excise duty cut of Rs. 2 / litre on petrol as well as diesel. -> Not a major positive, but should be good in the short term.

Bad:
1. No lowering of GST on electric vehicles despite the government's push to electric mobility.
2. No changes in the weighted deduction on research and development. Currently at 200%, it was expected to be lowered to 150% so as to benefit companies to increase spending on the BS-6 and electric vehicle research.
3. Rs. 50 lakh crore announced for infrastructure, but no particular announcement for electric vehicles, their charging points etc.
4. Scrap-age policy not announced - if the older vehicles were forced off the road, it would have benefitted the car makers. The industry had proposed 'Voluntary Vehicle Fleet Modernisation Plan’ to the government some time back.
5. No changes in tax slabs = no savings to the common man leading to an automobile purchase. An increase to Rs. 4.00 lakh from the current Rs. 2.5 lakh was expected.

The Good and Bad:
1. The customs duty increased for auto components from 15% to 20% to boost Make-In-India. While it will be good for the local industry, those dealing with components for the electric / hybrid vehicles will get affected.

My thoughts on the Budget 2018-img20151005wa0005.jpg

Sharing some of the industry reactions received.

Kavan Mukhtyar: Partner & Leader - Automotive, PwC India:

Quote:

The budget 2018 hold certain key themes for the Automotive industry. As expected there is significant push for rejuvenating the rural economy and improving economic development through better infrastructure connectivity. The Government has also provided a clear signal to encourage ‘Make in India’ by increasing customs duty rates on CKD and certain component imports.

Impact on Automotive Demand
1. Rural and agriculture sector push- positive for Tractors, Utility vehicles and 2 wheelers
2. Increased investment in infrastructure to improve rural connectivity – positive impact on Commercial vehicles
3. Support for MSME
4. Personal income tax benefit is marginal
5. Long term capital gains on equity and dividend distribution tax on Mutual fund

Impact on Automotive OEM and supplier industry
1. FM highlighted the importance for the industry to leverage digital. A center of excellence focusing on digital manufacturing, Robotics, Artificial intelligence, Big data analytics will be setup under NITI Aayog.
2. Auto component industry increase in import duty to 15% for select categories of automotive components. This is a clear signal that the Government supports the Make in India program for the automotive industry and also promotes deeper localization efforts of various vehicle programs.
3. Fully knocked down CKD imports increased from 10% to 15%. This measure will also encourage more local sourcing of components across vehicle segments
4. Motor vehicles carrying more than 10 people and Motor vehicles used for transport of goods which are imported in Completely Built Unit ('CBU') which earlier attracted a basic customs duty of 20% would now attract 25% basic customs duty.

There were several industry expectations on supporting R&D, electric vehicles, and safety which did not find mention in the budget. Measures to streamline GST rates and compliance process especially for MSME were not announced as part of the budget.

Overall we see this budget as focusing on the basic building blocks of the economy – Rural Agriculture, Infrastructure and MSMEs. These will translate into demand boosters for the Indian Automotive sector in the medium term. The push for localization will have a positive impact on Automotive component and supplier industry.
Roland Folger, Managing Director & CEO, Mercedes-Benz India:

Quote:

"The increase in the basic customs duty of auto parts, accessories and CKD components varying from 5% to 10%, clubbed with the new Social Welfare Surcharge at 10%, at a time when the auto industry is reviving, is unfortunate, and comes as a surprise. We believe it is going to impact the auto industry, the consumers and is also against the spirit of ‘Make in India’. The auto industry ended 2017 on a positive note, where it grew despite multiple policy disruptions in the previous year; but the customs duty hike is likely to reverse the growth trend. The automobile industry is already subjected to one of the highest rate of taxes under the GST regime, and with the successful GST implementation and the Government’s GST rate rationalization step in the recent times, the auto industry was expecting the Government to formulate policies and take decisions that would create demand, create additional jobs and help the industry to grow. As the overall costs due to various duty increase is imminent, we are left with no option but to pass on the resulting increase in price to the customers. We want to sustain and continue with our development of innovations and technologies, in introducing world-class products with unmatched safety standards, and also in our people and resources”.

Mr. Folger further added, “The increase in basic customs duty hike will highly restrict the growth of the luxury car industry and this will only result in the loss of additional revenue, which would have increased significantly with increase in volume. The auto industry which contributes 7.2% of the GDP is likely to be affected and further job creation might be impacted with this decision. Further, since the customers will be burdened with higher maintenance costs, it is likely that this duty hike may delay their routine servicing, thereby affecting safety and environment at large.
Pankaj M Munjal, CMD, Hero Cycles:

Quote:

The most distinct features of the last full budget by this government are a heavy focus on infrastructure and rural economy. An outlay of over 5 lakh crore for roads, over Rs 2 lakh crore for Smart cities and Rs 2000 crore for improving agricultural markets are positive moves. Reviving a slowing rural economy will by impact help improve rural demand. From the perspective of the bicycle sector, this is a positive move as rural sector comprises a significant market for it. On the other hand, improving infrastructure will have a multiplier effect on the economy and will serve as major thrust to the automobile sector specially commercial vehicles. The allocation of Rs 16,000 crore for electrification of rural areas would have a positive impact in creation of the electric vehicular ecosystem in the long term. Domestic manufacturing and “Make in India” trigger job creation.

The special scheme to resolve the challenge of air pollution in the National Capital Region is appreciable and is in accordance to our objective of promoting clean mobility. The government through its previous annual budgets and through its monetary and financial policies has shown great resolve in undertaking several corrective measures and reforms for strengthening the economy. This year’s budget has further consolidated on these efforts and is indicative of futuristic plans of the government to encourage progressive economic growth within the country.
Vipin Sondhi, MD & CEO, JCB India:

Quote:

"The Union Budget presented today is a balanced Budget with a focus on the Agri Sector, Rural Development, Healthcare and a continued thrust on Infrastructure creation. All of these will provide significant impetus to the revival of growth and creation of employment. The Budget also addresses the opportunities to modernise and create new infrastructure in Affordable Housing, Railways, Airports which continues the effort of the last few years. These will present favourable opportunities for growth to the Indian Construction Equipment Industry. Incentivisation to the MSME sector, which forms the backbone of industrialisation of a Nation, as also job creation is another welcome step.”
Sohinder Gill, Director - Corporate Affairs, Society of Manufacturers of Electric Vehicles:

Quote:

As the EV Policy is not a part of the budget, we were not expecting any major announcement related to electric vehicles in today’s budget. However, we are happy to note that there are general announcements made today, which will support the cause. For example air pollution, higher excise duty for indigenization, increase in agriculture infrastructure spends as well as other announcements alike, which will directly and indirectly support the automobiles, especially two wheelers, hence giving a further boost to EVs. We all know that the new EV policy is in the advance phase of formulation and it will be a separate policy which will come after a few months. It is expected that the policy will be stable in the long term, which will shape up the future of the electric vehicles.

The only thing we were expecting from the budget was rationalization of GST rate i.e. currently 12% for EVs and 28% for EV batteries. Also, we had requested that GST should be made at least either 0 or 5% for initial years. But we didn’t find any mention of the same. Perhaps it will be covered in the policy, later. Overall we are happy with the outcome of the budget.
Rahil Ansari, Head, Audi India:

Quote:

For the luxury auto sector, the Union Budget 2018-19 is disappointing and is against the spirit of partnership. As manufacturers, we have a core social responsibility towards our workforce and the dealer network.

Increase in custom duty and introduction of Social Welfare Surcharge in lieu of an Education Cess (which is higher than the erstwhile Cess), is going to definitely affect the prices again, which will further confuse the customer. The market sentiment had only recently become stable after the introduction of GST Cess. The budget clearly lacks a focus towards the luxury auto industry, which otherwise would have given us a better clarity to plan our strategy for the India market for short and long term.

While as luxury car manufacturers, we are undertaking several initiatives in terms of investment to make the dream of owning a luxury vehicle more realistic for all, we also expect the government to support this industry.

The budget definitely needed an inclusive view for the luxury automobile industry which would have helped the industry to rebound and create more jobs. There is no doubt that increase in auto sales would definitely help the Government in garnering more taxes because of volumes.

Lack of concrete measures for government's ambitious E-mobility project is surprising. However, investments in infrastructure and rural electrification are a welcome move as it will have a long term positive impact for automobile sector.
Congratulating the Union Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, President ACMA, Nirmal Minda, said:

Quote:

The Budget unveiled by Hon’ble Finance Minister is indeed inclusive and pro-manufacturing. The component sector is delighted that the duty on select items such as engine & transmission parts, brakes and parts thereof, suspension and parts thereof, gear boxes and parts thereof, airbags etc. have been enhanced from 7.5/10% to 15%. These items account for more than 50% of USD 43.5 billion domestic component industry’s turnover and over 30% of its USD 11 billion exports. The industry is extremely competitive in these areas and this measure will not only encourage investments but also encourage technology development in these areas.

Further, reduction in corporate tax to 25% for SMEs with turnover of up to Rs. 250 crore is yet another welcome step as over 80% of the companies engaged in the auto component manufacturing are SMEs. This measure, as also enhanced budgetary allocation of Rs 3,794 crore for credit support, capital and interest subsidy will have a benign impact on the smaller enterprises. That apart, simplification of procedure for credit availability through online-system for SMEs is a very welcome step.

The thrust given to the development of rural economy, infrastructure, particularly roads, augurs well towards creating a vibrant automotive market in the country, which in turn, will fuel growth and development of the domestic auto component industry.
Gaurav Karnik, Tax Partner Automotive sector, EY India says:

Quote:

From an automotive sector perspective, much was expected from the Budget. However, the Budget provided only a few positives on the direct tax side such as reduction in corporate tax rate to 25 percent for companies having turnover up to Rs 250 crore, rationalisation of the tax incentive for hiring new workers. On the indirect tax side, with a view to promoting the Make in India program the customs duty rates have been increased on automobile parts, CBU and SKDs. However, there has been no extension of direct tax benefits for R&D which was much needed keeping in perspective the upgradation to BS VI emission standards.
Abhishek Jain, Tax Partner, Automotive sector, EY India says:

Quote:

To further foster the national initiative of Make in India by automobile players as well, basic customs duty rate for import of various parts (including engines) by automobile manufacturers have been increased. With doubling of the BCD rate for engines from a current levy of 7.5% to 15%, manufacturing cost of automobiles with imported engines is expected to see a steep rise. The costs further being stressed with increase in BCD rates for various parts & accessories as well as seats. While these would typically impact auto manufacturers in India who import parts of the vehicle, similar impact is expected to be sensed by those importing motor vehicles in CKD forms as well.
Dr. Raghupati Singhania, Chairman & Managing Director, JK Tyre & Industries Ltd:

Quote:

Budget 2018-19 as anticipated has put major thrust on the agro-rural economy. The allocation of nearly Rs. 15.7 lac crore to this sector, which is almost 10% of the GDP, is many time higher than in the previous year. Various measures to put in place a mechanism to boost farmers’ income, higher credit for agri sector, creating clusters for horticulture crops and supporting food processing, will give tremendous boost to agro rural economy. This in turn will improve their buying power and will encourage consumption. Health protection programme envisaging medical care and hospitalization for 10 crore poor families is indeed a bold step forward in ensuring healthcare for all.

Credit support and lowering of tax rates for the MSME sector will boost the sector that plays an important role in the economy. Renewed emphasis on infrastructure development, in particular large outlays in railways, will keep the economy ticking. The corporate sector was hoping that the Finance Minister will live up to his promise of reducing corporate tax from 30%. On the other hand, surcharges have been increased, thereby making effective rates even higher than before.

Healthcare(insurance worth 5L) for close to 500 million people is probably the biggest health care initiative ever.

Implementation remains to be seen but it's probably the single most 'Wow' point of the budget. :thumbs up

Automobiles however are set to get dearer with tax on imports and CKDs/CBUs increased:Frustrati

Got the following pdf through a whatsapp forward. Even though everything is not covered, it may help someone.

Union Budget 2018.pdf

I have no interests in this company or in any way related to them.

According to TOI - Luxury vehicles, motorcycles and other car manufacturers, like Hyundai, will be hit most.
Also mentioned here are price hikes on imported electronic devices, which if you think about is pretty much any foreign brand, as they will have some parts getting imported and then assembled here in India -
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/...w/62748412.cms

Quote:

Originally Posted by coron (Post 4349078)
as they will have some parts getting imported and then assembled here in India

I support the increase in custom duties as I'm a firm believer in the "if you want to sell it here, build it here" philosophy. Car manufacturers source from their regional / global part hubs or sister companies, even though there are ample volumes to justify local production. E.g. in a car like the Creta which sells up to a massive 10,000 units / month, what is the need to have even a single imported part?

The higher-end car makers will continue to whine, but well, too bad. The toys of the rich man will continue to be heavily taxed in a country where <5% of citizens pay income tax. Live with it.

On the other hand, I'm disappointed that the Budget didn't even mention electric vehicles (or hybrids), despite the government's own "all electric by 2030" ridiculous claims.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoumenD (Post 4349034)
Healthcare(insurance worth 5L) for close to 500 million people is probably the biggest health care initiative ever.

Implementation remains to be seen but it's probably the single most 'Wow' point of the budget. :thumbs up

Agreed. Healthcare and education are the most neglected in India. If this insurance scheme works out, it would be grand.

But, indeed a big BUT, the implementation has to be right. At the outset, it cannot be a reimbursement kind of arrangement. Because, if it is reimbursement of the expenses incurred, then common people (mostly the disadvantaged) will have to face the bureaucracy while submitting the documents etc. If it is cashless, then too there will be bureaucracy, but at least it will be dealt with by an organization (i.e. hospital), which is less disadvantaged. I remain a skeptic seeing the trend in India. Take for example: home-loan registration, mortgage intimation and 1% TDS on buying a house. In all three, it is the common people who have to face the bureaucracy. There is high chance that it will turn out to be something like crop insurance.

Quote:

Originally Posted by coron (Post 4349078)
Also mentioned here are price hikes on imported electronic devices, which if you think about is pretty much any foreign brand, as they will have some parts getting imported and then assembled here in India...

Cross posting from the ownership thread of mjumrani.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mjumrani (Post 4261031)
After I got the tax invoice, I was shocked to see the amount of tax (GST) on the car, below is what I was able to figure out,

Landing cost of the car according to Zauba (September 2016 information) is: 15,59,394/-
Import duty: 33,21,509/- (213% according to Zuaba HSN code 87033291)
Ex-Manufacturer: 55,24,475/- (Volvo India adds about 6.43L)
GST: 28% on ex-manufacturer: 15,46,853.14/-
Cess: 15% on ex-manufacturer: 8,28,672/-
Ex-Showroom: 79,00,000/-
Road Tax (19.98%) + registration charges: 15,80,659/-
Total: 94.8L

Out of 94.8L that I paid to the dealer, the government took 72.7L as taxes and only 22.02L reached Volvo.

The amount of taxes is simply humongous. Agree that its a CBU car and one of the costliest ones on sale but it it's a real eye opener.

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTO (Post 4349152)
I support the increase in custom duties as I'm a firm believer in the "if you want to sell it here, build it here" philosophy. Car manufacturers source from their regional / global part hubs or sister companies, even though there are ample volumes to justify local production. E.g. in a car like the Creta which sells up to a massive 10,000 units / month, what is the need to have even a single imported part?

I will partly agree to your philosophy, but a fine balance must be maintained. India has an advantage in terms of lower cost of labour compared to other places. Exports of cars have been increasing over time (though not at the numbers of the domestic sales), however, taxing cars so high could be detrimental in the long run. E.g. even the ultra rich buy cars in other countries and get them down to India on carnet as thats cheaper than buying here. I'm not saying make the tax to 0, but maybe give incentive in terms of xx% reduction in tax if the manufacturers sells yy,000 electric cars in India. Companies with electric / hybrid products on sale in other markets could jump at this opportunity helping the 2030 target of the government.

Quote:

On the other hand, I'm disappointed that the Budget didn't even mention electric vehicles (or hybrids), despite the government's own "all electric by 2030" ridiculous claims.
Yes, this was unexpected. On one hand the govt is shouting through the top of the roofs for the shift to electric, and at times even threatening manufacturers to toe the line, but there have been no developments in this area. Forget R&D on new cars, there are not enough electric charging points in the city and other infrastructure. They should have revised the import tariff on electric cars at the minimum. As we know, most people will be skeptical to be the early adopters of this tech, but the govt could have made it a bit easy on those who would have considered buying one.

I am no finance expert, the unchanged tax brackets will not hit me much, Do I have a choice... NO. So be it.
Being a layman, The part that hurt me most: is the law/proposal (at this stage) for Salary revision for all MP's every five year in order to negate the Inflation. Are they the only one's who are hit by inflation.
I know, the salaried class also gets increments every year The percentage hike is always matching the inflation rates every year.
But that salary is not loaded with Perks that MPs/MLA's Have. Ex: Servants, Chauffer's, Free electricity, residence & what not. We do not have any of these & pay for every one of these. Plus the lifetime pension once not in power.
I guess the salaried class is the most hit inflation. If I lose my job in next five years, I am on my own, no pension.

--am I sounding to negative, don't kill me please-- Still a larva, in process of converting to a beautiful "flutterby".

Regards,
Saurabh

I lost interest in budgets a couple of decades ago. All they do is tinkering at the fringes and have little influence on the performance of the economy or on the development of the less better off. The stock markets also are influenced by the budget for a few days before/after, that's all. IMO, the budget is an overinflated non event.

The real influence on citizens is exerted by policy decisions that are taken by different governments/institutions like RBI at different times in a year and over the years, and the rains. And of course the most important - implementation or the lack thereof. None of these three come under the framework of the budgetary tinkering.

70% of the revenue budget is about meeting the running expenses of the government + interest payments, leaving very little freedom to do more than this tinkering.

I second your thoughts Saurabh. Sometimes I feel I wasted my life by concentrating more on studies and ended up in a highly paid private sector job. One guy from our locality who was pathetic in studies and was roaming all the time with gangs ended up as a corporator and he is owning a Toyota Fortuner. But I am still paying my car EMI. I also should have focused my attention towards politics.

Quote:

Originally Posted by SoumenD (Post 4349034)
Healthcare(insurance worth 5L) for close to 500 million people is probably the biggest health care initiative ever.

Implementation remains to be seen but it's probably the single most 'Wow' point of the budget. :thumbs up

Automobiles however are set to get dearer with tax on imports and CKDs/CBUs increased:Frustrati

Allocating Rs. 2000 Cr for healthcare needs of 50 Cr people is not sufficient in anyway. 2000 cr is less than the cost of a new fighter jet. Even insurance premiums for 50 Cr people would cost more than this. Come to think of it, people who just read the headlimes would feel good about being protected till they get to know the fine print. It is a brilliant advertising and PR strategy but may not be an effective one. Healtcare costs have zoomed in the last 5 years. It costs 30 to 40,000 a night in a decent private hospital ICU and most insurance companies do not offer cashless claims. It is no wonder that private hospitals are cheering this move. They might get a few more captive consumers, while state hospitals, which have the best doctors, will remain underfunded.

The last lucrative avenue for wealth creation- equity markets- have also been included in the tax umbrella. A salaried person pays close to 50 percent of his income as tax and receives neither free education, nor healthcare coverage nor a clean bureaucractic support system. Taxing people to give MPs a better salary while research institutes and colleges struggle for funds is not capitalism. It is worse than the socialism that most people blame for lack of economic progress in the last seven decades.

Govt. reduced the excise duty by Rs.2 and abolished additional excise duty worth Rs.6 but introduced a new road cess of Rs. 8. So the prices will remain the same.

Source

Its frustrating that a car owner has to pay road tax while registering the vehicle, road cess while filling it up and then toll tax while using it.:Frustrati

Demonetization is a thing of the past and the stubborn of us are back to exchanging cash leaving bulk of the economy outside the formal system and hence the tax net.

GST also seems to have been made "jugaad" of given the dwindling revenue figures from GST.

Tax evasion due to cash based parallel economy is elephant in the room the Govt is not seen showing any resolve to address. Increasing tax net is need of the hour. Besides stricter enforcement of law, incentivizing non cash transactions and dis-incentivizing cash is absolutely necessary. On the contrary there present systems incentivize cash as most means of cashless transactions are charged.

There are just 24 lakh tax payers in a country of 125 crore who declare an income of more than 10 lakhs and there are 25 lakh cars bought each year. [ https://economictimes.indiatimes.com...w/56201138.cms ] I am sure the Govt is aware of this but is hardly showing any resolve to address the tax net issue.

In initial part of the speech FM said "there is premium on honesty". I failed to figure out the meaning of this statement when money launderers are at large, people already in the tax net are paying for the huge loan defaulters and majority of the tax-worthy population is managing to stay out of tax net and enjoying tax free lives.

Another claim by the FM is salaried people earn more than the businessmen and professionals, that is what the income tax data shows. I don't expect the country's FM to be so naive. I am sure he isn't. It's not a secret that salaried class has little scope for tax evasion while many businesses and professionals (I am not saying all of them) manage to evade taxes with cash transactions. If FM chooses to make conclusive remarks merely based on existing tax network data, it shows he has reconciled and accepted current tax net as normal. If that is so, there is no hope for "premium on honesty" that he claims.

Instead of addressing the core problem FM has chosen to armtwist the existing tax payer base with measures like LTCG tax.

Quote:

Originally Posted by mayuresh (Post 4349358)
Tax evasion due to cash based parallel economy is elephant in the room the Govt is not seen showing any resolve to address. Increasing tax net is need of the hour. Besides stricter enforcement of law, incentivizing non cash transactions and dis-incentivizing cash is absolutely necessary. On the contrary there present systems incentivize cash as most means of cashless transactions are charged.

I have said this in many threads here - the quoted are merely symptoms. Addressing just the symptoms never addresses any disease properly. Even allopath doctors know this truth.

India has too many laws, too much regulation, and too many bureaucrats and politicians that are either making money exploiting the consequent fertile breeding grounds for corruption, or a small minority trying to honestly enforce that same too much regulation and getting swamped by it, so failing there as well.

The problem is that these same people are expected to reduce the laws and streamline regulations, but doing that will drastically reduce corruption opportunities - who will cut his own stomach? None of us will, if in the same situation.

I haven't forgotten the classic example in Pune from over 20 years ago, when the Octroi department was shameless enough to go on strike protesting the abolishing of Octroi. Any country that can tolerate such behaviour has little chances of eliminating corruption. Who can blame citizens then that pay taxes only if there is no option but to pay these?

Those in the salaried sector have to pay the price they do on this count - it is the price to pay for wanting job security by working for someone else as just an employee. Get some initiative, start a business, and reap all the consequent benefits for the risks taken. And enjoy hearing the salaried people that cannot do this, moan about their taxes deducted at source.

Things will get a lot worse before they get better, so make the most of today. Everyone of us.

PS: The above should explain why the FM is nothing more than a helpless pygmy where impacting the core issues are concerned. All he CAN do is arm twist. Some do it more cleverly than others, but that is all that all of them can do. And have done since 1947.


All times are GMT +5.5. The time now is 03:25.