[thanixravindran]

I am surprised that there is no thread yet in Team BHP on this topic.

News reports over the weekend indicate the fall out of Wagner mercenary group with Vladimir Putin and their 'March' to Moscow. The media portrayed it almost the same as the Marches of Napoleon and Hitler towards Moscow. And media reports indicated they took Rostov on Don and 200 miles within Moscow. This is very hard to even imagine, let alone believe. It seems Belarus has brokered a truce for now and the bloodless coup was averted.

There are many firsts if this is all true -

1. A mercenary group, if victorious, would have been the closest to the nuclear weapons. I always thought that the badge of honour will go to our western neighbour.

2. For the first time, Vladimir Putin is at the weakest point of his reign and may very well be out soon. The silence of the Russian army is puzzling and may indicate that this is a signal from one group with tacit understanding to the Wagner group. Russian army at its least popularity would want to be in the limelight of a coup d'etat.

3. Russia is fast becoming a rump state. Though civil war is nothing new in history (last one after the demise of Tsarist Russia), surprisingly it has held on better after the fall of Soviet Russia.

Mods - Though the previous thread on Ukraine - Russia war was closed, hope this thread is allowed and wish comments to follow the standards to be maintained here.

[dailydriver]

Just as physically stepping into either Russia or Ukraine is fraught with danger, any discussion on the failed coup too is bound to veer dangerously close to issues that are generally avoided on the forum.

One just hopes that this madness will soon end. It has dragged on for too long.

The following depiction in Indian Express aptly sums up the present situation.

[CarNerd]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

I am surprised that there is no thread yet in Team BHP on this topic.

There was a thread which was closed as it became too political: https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/shift...raine-war.html (Impact of the Russia-Ukraine war)

[PreludeSH]

Not sure the coup even if it happens will yield needed results. The group is also helping in waging the war and does anyone think it will stop the war ?
Ukraine side, its just getting started with new weapons

[SmartCat]

The whole incident was like watching Aragorn marching to Mordor to kill Sauron, but turning back after reaching the Black Gate. The movie theatre lights turn on, the movie ends and the credits start rolling.

[udzgodfather]

What may look like a coup, could have been a smokescreen for flushing internal enemies out, I mean Wagner settled to go to Belarus, way faster than he commissioned to capture army posts. The way things have settled down I think Kremlin was already expecting something like that.

[GhostGrid]

There has been a lot going on in the background between Ukraine and Russia's war. We only see what comes out of the news or what the media wants to tell us. Perceptions are Deceptions in this technological era. US media is way stronger than Russian media, and nobody spends billions on the war when their own country is going through a recession.

Wagner has been fighting for Russia since 2014 and did a tremendous job for Russia in Syria. Now, why have they tried a coup?

Point 1: As we all know, Mr. Prigozhin accused his country's military minister, Sergei Shoigu, of "destroying" his warriors and fabricating lies to justify the invasion of Ukraine.

Few Points have raised, if the point 1 is true:

-> Though he changes his mind after certain talks, will Putin forgive him for what he did? History suggests otherwise.

-> This coup revealed Putin's weakness, and this domestic crisis will help Ukraine and NATO.

-> Why this happened? Well, only Putin himself is to blame for it. Prigozhin is his creation. He founded the Wagner mercenary squad to serve in the Kremlin's many foreign excursions, which were part of the Kremlin's geopolitical expansionist goal in the Middle East and Africa. Putin has not only strengthened Prigozhin and others who have questioned formal state institutions, but he has also fueled their "big ambitions" by refusing to nominate a clear successor to the Russian presidency.

-> What if other international agencies are behind this one-day coup? At least, they have successfully created a significant escalation in Prigozhin's long-running dispute with Russian military leaders over resources and decision-making in the Russo-Ukrainian war. They also represented Putin's most serious domestic problem in recent years.

Point 2: What if Putin has an idea that some people from his country are helping Ukraine/NATO but are sitting with him, so he wants to reveal those faces, and he himself created this whole scene?

PS: Point 2 is my own theory because I have watched too many Hollywood movies.

Overall, the next 2 months will be crucial for Putin, both internally and externally.

Note: I tried my best not to write anything that fails the thread rules and regulations criteria, but if I did, then please delete the post or edit it.

[aim120]

The ending was worse then the finale of game of thrones.

Priogozhin is at end of the day a business man. He only does what is best for him, even if it means stabbing his country in the back.

He was about to loose control of Wagner which means he looses all leverage. He was basically cornered after the Russian defense ministry forced them to sign a contract.

As to why he could make it till outskirts of Moscow, he had his men stationed before hand. He himself was much further back.

The RuAF couldn't bomb the Wagner convoy because of civilians next to them. So instead they blew up the roads, even then some missed. Since they had very little time to prepare and get ground attack planes.

Those attack helicopters where shot down because your first have to do a reconnaissance run and only then figure out who is who, since the convoy is mixed with civilians and is moving. Even then the pilots behind the trigger still have to second guess and will hesitate to pull the trigger because its there own country men, collateral civilians and may choose to return fire only after being fired upon first.

But had the negotiations failed there is no way he would have made it to moscow. Akhmat forces where on his tail while the FSB, Russian National Guard, Spetsnaz special forces and other military assets where tasked to defend Moscow.

Wagner had MANPADS and short range air defenses, so they are sitting duck to high flying RuAF bombers jets and UAV.

If somehow Wagner made it into moscow, the people would have come to the street and to prevent Russians killing Russians. Putin may be a dictator but he his still very very popular among Russian people.

Also now the FSB knows who all were rooting for the coup to succeed including those in Russian Telegram channels, sleeper cells, agents, Oligarchs etc.

Now the west is worried about Wagner making another front from Belarus.

[skanchan95]

Originally Posted by thanixravindran

I
2. For the first time, Vladimir Putin is at the weakest point of his reign and may very well be out soon. The silence of the Russian army is puzzling and may indicate that this is a signal from one group with tacit understanding to the Wagner group. Russian army at its least popularity would want to be in the limelight of a coup d'etat.

The man does not forgive or forget. In an interview, he had earlier said Betrayal is only thing he cannot forgive. The man was a KGB agent and knows how to silence any opposition. He had literally raised this monster called Prigozhin and he backstabbed Putin or so it looks. There is more than what meets the eye in Prigozhin's pullback and exile.

Do not be surprised if he accidentally falls of a high rise or his car gets bombed by ''Belarussian resistance" in the near time. Prigozhin's men have blood on their hands - the crew of all those helicopters and the IL-22 shot down by them. I do not think the Russian AF will sit quietly either after losing so many aircraft and crew in their own land to a bunch of Renegades.

[thanixravindran]

The closest historical event I can co-relate is this is eerily similar to the rise and fall of SA in the Pre-war Nazi Germany. The ascent of Storm troopers as a para military wing allied with NSDAP helping it to achieve power, Rohm's ambition on controlling the army and finally culminating in their irrelevance through the 'Night of Long Knives' purge. Hope this drama too ends soon.

[shancz]

I don't possess any knowledge on the topic but going by whatever was shown in the media and layman logic I can only say this :

- It doesn't make sense for someone who owns a private military organisation like Wagner to lead a charge on the ruling dispensation of the Russian Federation (regardless of the ruler) with 25k mercenaries(not soldiers) and some equipment.
There should be significantly more and a different reality on ground than that we're assuming/being narrated.

- In the videos, I saw blokes in t-shirts and shorts strolling around and browsing on their phones while APCs blocked roads and troops(not sure if soldiers/mercenaries) took position with LMGs. There was one who walked in front of a tank sparing a casual glance. These are indicators that the local population knows the reality which we might/might not.

- For the personality being built about the current President of the Russian Federation and the "mutiny" by the PMC Wagner owner, the outcome of him getting a safe passage to Belarus(a ally of Russia) seems a bit out of place.

- It also seems a bit illogical for the owner of the PMC Wagner, who would have significant investments in the country as he's been stated to be an oligarch, to have willingly run everything to the ground by his actions which themselves seem illogical.

- Before someone says he's a nutcase hence all the illogical actions make sense I would say that being a nutcase is fine but being a nutcase, leading the organisation that he is seen doing and convincing 25k mercenaries including the top leadership to follow him doesn't fit the profile of a nutcase.

- The last time we heard about disagreement between the military leadership and PMC Wagner chief, a few weeks later they captured Bakhmut. Hence this disagreement around the Ukrainian counter offensive and impending negotiations does generate some interest in the objective but can't be sure

All I am saying is that the narrative, reasoning and observations don't seem to match.
But will see how this pans out, whenever that is.

Will excuse myself from further discussion, learning from history

[GTO]

Mod Note: Thanks for the discussion, guys. But because of the forum rules on no political posts, we have to close this thread.