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Also I was thinking of observing the price movement tomorrow to see what happens as markets were closed today. Overall, Page Industries seems like a good growth story. Let me know what concerns do you have OR are what kind of conviction you have on the stock - just want to make sure if I am not missing anything. I am not asking this to give 100% returns over 1 month but my holding period will be >1 year. From that perspective, I think this is good.

Sorry for back to back posts. Had missed the Editing deadline. stupid:

Hi

As I mentioned in my earlier post, dividends are taxed in the US. Capital gains tax has to be paid in India only. I'm not really sure on interest on bonds.

Not a taxation expert here, but the general rule is that you get no benefit on long term/short term capital gains for investing in securities overseas. I urge you to speak to your tax advisor before committing the monies. Sorry I can't be of greater help here since tax is totally alien to me. Always game to discuss the markets though :D

Are you talking about the LTCG/STCG for stocks on which STT has been paid?

On markets, I was looking at NYSE, it seems they have had a huge rally last year and with QE tapering they are expecting a slowdown. Does it make sense to invest now or should we wait?

Saanil,

For me in any growth stock like Page the biggest risk is if it does not grow its sales and volumes over a sustained period of lets say 2-3 quarters. In that case there could be a P/E contraction which might lead to opportunity costs as the P/E expansion after that might take over a year.

But what are the chances of a lower growth? In my mind it is a low probability event considering the execution strength of the management, brand power and current growth trends. In women's wear, kids wear and leisure wear the growth is very good. The market penetration is less than 10% for these segments and for men's wear its is around 15%. And then you have speedo swimwear and accessories.

Page is valued at 40 times earnings due to quality of its earnings and growth prospects. More than 50% ROE which continues to increase every year, close to 50% dividend payout, huge brand moat and big opportunity size in front of it. Even if there is a strike in the factory, long periods of high raw material costs or heavy marketing by competition, I do not think these will dent its long term (5 years) prospects. Fruit-of-the-loom came and went and Hanes even after being bought by Arvind is still not giving them much competition.

In about 6 month's time we will see Page being valued at FY16 earnings. My estimate is Rs 230 EPS for FY16. 40 times that could be an investor's target for Page in next 12-15 months.

Relatively much safer investment than most other stocks. Very little ifs and buts here.

Disclosure: I am invested and forms around 7% of my portfolio. My views could be biased.

On US stocks, you are anyway not paying any STT in India. So there is no difference between LTCG/STCG as far as i know.

the US markets have been rallying for close to 5 years now since the 2009 low.
I myself am only 30-40% long with the rest in cash. lets see

Just cannot understand the current boom in the market. The poll results are likely but not certain.

Its speculation nothing else. There is hope that there will be a Modi led government but then again as you say it is not certain.

The trick as always is for the big guys to move in first and start accumulation then the medium guys move in and start accumulating from the big guys who are now distributing in small chunks. Its when the little guys move in that the distribution starts wholesale and well everybody knows what happens next. Surprisingly this time the little guy is not moving in like expected so this rally will continue, anyways it will be ranging to positive till results, if Modi wins it will see a big spike up and then consolidation starts, if he loses well it will be a shorting dhamaka for traders, investors not so much.

What really is astonishing is that our macros are still not that great and still people are running in. Its like trying to sell someone a dream. My take, if you have missed the bus stay out at least on the big names. There are some decent mid caps which are genuinely good companies they are the ones one can invest in. Other wise the best option, buy Gold or if you dabble in Forex, YEN, when the market fizzles, that is where the killing happens.

Experts,

While doing the once in a lifetime closet cleaning exercise my father discovered some documents which were actually share certificates in paper format in some companies which he had invested ages ago. I checked whether the companies are still trading with 2 out of 3 showing no trading in the last 30 days.

Now my question is would to be possible to demat these share certificates? I do have an demat account but in my name and will the shares in my father's name be transferred to my DP account? Is there any written down procedure for the same? Whom to approach? Need guidance.

Yes. He has to open an demat account with the name[s] in the same order specified in the physical share certificate. Suppose, he has two share certificates, say the first one bears the name of A and B and the second one has B and A. In that case, he has to get the physical share certificates transferred to one set of name[s], either A and B or B and A. After doing this, he has to surrender these physical certificates with the prescribed application to the demat account depository participant. They will do the needful to convert the physical shares into dematerialized form and deposit them in the demat account.

No.

J.Ravi/Ghodlur
Hi
Whether the physical shares of a co has same holders viz A and B or B and A you don't have to send the original certificate to the company for transfer.As it is a transfer today is a painful process and getting stamps and a transfer form can be a bit of a hassle.
Approach the depository and fill in the transposition form which is valid and an easier way instead of sending to the company.
Only thing is that the holders must be the same, doesn't matter in whichever order.
Regards

Markets are on fire. As some brainy bird said - "Be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy". Time to be fearful then.
Also the RBI guv recently said the GOI can fire him if it wants, but it cannot force him to set monetary policies contrary to long term benefits to nation. Maybe he is preparing for tough days ahead vis-a-vis diktats from the "tough" new PM.

Experts,

What are your views on what should be done in the stock market now for retail investors like me who have missed the recent rally? Strategy, stock pick suggestions please?

Always stay out of of such "bull runs" unless it has just started.
Stock markets are always the game of finding a greater fool than you (so that you can sell to them at higher price than what you bought at).
Unfortunately, there are very few greater fools left now ... if you plan to jump in then be ultra careful now (and very trigger happy to exit).

I would suggest you better wait till the election results are announced and govt is formed stably. Also govt after being formed needs to announce its policies. Wait till all this happens.

Point to ponder!! Who leaked the exit poll results to the punters?

I'm no expert, but best to play the waiting game. The rally has been swift and riding on high expectations. Entering at this point means equal (or more) probability of losing money than making it.

Wait for reality to set in and a correction will result, as it always does. Then you will get an entry point. Meanwhile maintain a detached attitude to all the talks of investor wealth and sky high index targets. Easier said than done. :)