Team-BHP - Do you play the stock market

Hi, Igarashi looks promising, but I need more info regarding the products and future plans of the company. I was thinking that teamBHP community will be able to help in this regards as the company is into making Electronic Throttle Control motors and gas re-circulation motors. Bosch is the main customer. Hopefully the AGM visit will be fruitful.

Kitex has just doubled its fabric capacity and garment capacity addition is going on. By year end they should have double the capacity. The demand situation is quite robust, so business growth should happen with added capacity. The company has reasonable moat with ability to negotiate favorable terms with the customers even if raw material price goes up or rupee appreciates too much. So I am quite bullish.

Shilpa is a great story in the making. Their formulations business should start contributing from next year. The Oncology space is relatively more difficult to crack. I think they will achieve PAT of nearly 140 Cr next year. Quite bullish here too.

Read the India nivesh repot on Shilpa and valuepickr thread on Kitex and Shilpa apart from reading their annual reports. Once you understand the business and prospects and build your own conviction you will be able to stay put.

By the way when did you buy Kitex? After the recent crash post q-1 results? That was a smart move :)

Cheers

Vindy

Quote:

Originally Posted by VindyWheels (Post 3481798)

Today Igarashi jumped by 19.65 rs and 11.35%. And seems like it will hit a new high in few trading sessions. Hope your AGM visit was fruitful. Could you throw some light on the visit please?

Quote:

Originally Posted by VindyWheels (Post 3481798)

Kitex has just doubled its fabric capacity and garment capacity addition is going on. By year end they should have double the capacity. The demand situation is quite robust, so business growth should happen with added capacity. The company has reasonable moat with ability to negotiate favorable terms with the customers even if raw material price goes up or rupee appreciates too much. So I am quite bullish. Vindy

The stock was covered in today's edition of 'midcap mania' in CNBC TV18.
The challenges were the labor situation in kerala, and the competition from china n b'desh. The stock is 4X up from 09/2013. :Shockked:

Hi, they have around 7000 employees for this business and around 15000 for the group. The employees are given good quality dormitory facility and free food. I had seen the dormitories and had great food from their canteen too :)
As per the MD theirs is the only garment manufacturing shop-floor which is air-conditioned.

Labor is difficult to come by in Kerala, so most of the new hires are from North India. Attrition is high. But going forward the new machines will ensure less dependency on manpower. The doubling of capacity is happening without labor addition.

We cannot buy today's stock at yesterday's price...the question is what is its future potential.

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Originally Posted by JMaruru (Post 3484493)

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgiitk (Post 3484568)

Folks, an humble suggestion. Let is keep this thread more for discussions on categories, markets per se, and minimise talk of individual stocks (esp Small / Mid cap)

I do NOT see any harm in discussing individual stocks. The thread is about stocks, and if one is purchasing a particular stock, we can understand his reasoning/conviction behind that company/sector. You can get the market trends/categories in daily newspapers/portals.

Quote:

Originally Posted by VindyWheels (Post 3484581)

We cannot buy today's stock at yesterday's price...the question is what is its future potential.

Well said, the quality does NOT come cheap.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambuhere1 (Post 1292059)

Recd in E-mail

It is August. In a small town on the South Coast of France, holiday season is in full swing, but it is raining so there is not too much business happening. Everyone is heavily in debt. Luckily, a rich Russian tourist arrives in the foyer of the small local hotel. He asks for a room and puts a Euro100 note on the reception counter, takes a key and goes to inspect the room located up the stairs on the third floor.

The hotel owner takes the banknote in hurry and rushes to his meat supplier to whom he owes E100.

The butcher takes the money and races to his wholesale supplier to pay his debt.

The wholesaler rushes to the farmer to pay E100 for pigs he purchased some time ago.

The farmer triumphantly gives the E100 note to a local prostitute who gave him her services on credit.

The prostitute goes quickly to the hotel, as she owed the hotel for her hourly room use to entertain clients.

At that moment, the rich Russian is coming down to reception and informs the hotel owner that the proposed room is unsatisfactory and takes his E100 back and departs.

There was no profit or income. But everyone no longer has any debt and the small town people look optimistically towards their future.

COULD THIS BE THE SOLUTION TO THE Global Financial Crisis? Or, is there a catch here?

5 years late :D

But if your question was unanswered:
First of all 'Debt Crisis' usually occur when people don't have money to pay back their loans, and are having to give off their mortgage or something. So, in a scenario like you mentioned, the Hotel owner would never be able to return 100 Euros to the Russian.
And if your solution calls for Countries & International institutions to be the Rich Russian, and then not ask back the money, it wouldn't be feasible for multiple reasons:
1. You can't really depend on the people to pay off their debts when they're given some amount (You may bind them to do so, but their will still be a lot of defaults)
2. In the big real world, money chains are WAY MORE complex than this. They are hardly ever remotely cyclic.
3. In the real world, lending is accompanied with interest rates, and that too varying largely. So, while, all may have taken the same amount, everyone wouldn't owe the same amount.

Tata has been having a torrid time domestically of late. A line up of passenger vehicles that are about as exciting as watching Cook bat!! Sales that are slowly inching towards 2 digits. A struggling Commercial vehicles unit thanks to a slowing economy. Fortunately the JLR unit has been more than making up due to increasing sales and very very healthy margins.

But I suspect very soon a sales boom is on the cards followed by a share rally, well I believe so!!

Tata passenger vehicles

The biggest positive of Tata's present position is that things are so bad that the only way is up. But Tata have a couple of products with a modicum excitement, new variants of existing products, the Kite small car etc. This might very well mean Tata could double its sales real soon. Which isn't saying much to the the presently dire sales figures. But looks like Tata will claw back some of its lost ground in the passenger segment.

Commercial vehicles

A slowly improving economy should see sales pick up for the truck giant. Also its focus on exports will help increase volumes.

JLR

Perhaps the most promising automaker at the moment.

Jaguar

The XE and new Jaguar SUV will see sales easily double, if not triple for the British brand. Consider they presently only have the XF as a volume model. The introduction of an executive sedan and a new SUV will see the brand open up to all new clientele.

Land Rover

The new Disco Sport replacing the still decently selling Freelander. This will all likely be an instant hit.

I suspect one could see Tata's overall sales to increase by nearly 80% plus.

Of course all this is my assumption

Nice research there, however, feels more like reading a stock/ investment research. Everyone is expecting Tata to do better while it has armed itself with a couple of good passenger segment products. The Zest will be out soon for people soon and going by the preliminary reports, it looks like a giant leap on the positive side in every aspect; as far as Tata's passenger car history is concerned.

Quote:

Originally Posted by shortbread (Post 3491353)

But I suspect very soon a sales boom is on the cards followed by a share rally, well I believe so!!

Well, the stock market is smart enough and usually such stock surges and rallies are seen before actual sales take place, discounting everything in advance.

Regards,
Saket

Quote:

Originally Posted by saket77 (Post 3491359)

Well, the stock market is smart enough and usually such stock surges and rallies are seen before actual sales take place, discounting everything in advance.

I fully agree.

Somehow the media still thinks Tata's passenger car operations has a huge say in the overall Tata Motors performance. But of late it is far from the truth. Its just the poor performance of the pasenger car division is more visible to the Indian public.

On the other hand JLR is generating most of the profits, generally piggy backing on Land Rovers success. But now all of a sudden Jaguar that was so far relying on an ageing XF has a volume model in the Sept launch XE. Even by the most conservative estimates it should clock global sales of 100k for the model alone, compare that to Jaguars overall sales of 70k odd!!! Then they have the Jag SUV and the XF launch coming up. So very soon we can see sales triple for Jaguar!!

This is a huge jump in fortunes but more importantly allows JLR to spread its bets rather than rely on simply the Land Rover line up!!

Couple this with the apparent (albeit for how long!!) news of improving passenger car sales in India, paints a very very rosy picture for Tata motors.