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Thanks for sharing. A very good resource, especially for someone new to investing.

What do you guys think about investing in renewable energy companies for long term? Most of them are selling low now. Isn't renewable energy the 'thing' of future and I believe they should make good investment.

I believe it's government's motive to discourage people from putting their money into fixed deposits.

The inflation rate is always higher than the FD rate.
On top of this you are supposed to pay income tax on it. (Which actually makes sense in a way since you are earning money).

But just have a look at other instrument - Equity based Mutual Fund.
Dividends are exempted. Short terms cap gain tax of 15%, Long term nothing!

Basically the Govt wants public to hold ownership in the enterprises, rather than give loan to the enterprise (FD money => Bank => loan to enterprise)

Hi,

I had changed my stance on Suven Lifescience from positive to negative on 18th July when the price was Rs 109. Guess what, now its trading at Rs 207! :)

Obviously market currently has a view that is opposite to my view. Missed opportunity? Its fine, what matters is your process of stock selection and the sincerity with which you adhere to your principles. It is better to err while dismissing an investment candidate than erring while choosing one. I need not kiss all the girls :)

Meanwhile ADI finechem, Igarashi and Kitex are doing very well.

I have been hooked to analysing a company called CCL products...looks very interesting, I have bought and forms 6% of the portfolio. The business has multiple triggers going forward, especially the Vietnam operation. The stock price has gone up almost 5 times in last one year, but as per my estimate its still trading at less than 10 times FY16 earnings. Some of you in Hyderabad, pls see if you find a coffee brand called "Continental" in super markets like Reliance, Spencers etc. This is supposed to be as good if not better than Nestle and is selling at 30-40% discount.

Cheers

Vindy

@Vindy: Can you also analyze Ybrant Digital Limited?

I purchased shares at Rs. 16 a little while ago and price touched Rs. 60 quite soon. Right now, the price is falling down again. Is that a correction?

Hi VindyWheels,

Thanks for all you recommendations. I was tracking Suven when the price was hovering around 102 but I did not have the conviction to buy it at that time and it has run up a lot after that. For that matter every other stock has run up a lot for the past couple of months.

I basically take a technofunda approach to stocks. After looking at CCL products, I am of the view that if it breaks 110/- then there might be a big up move.

I have few questions to you on Shilpa Medicare. There was a downturn after Shilpa's Q1 results. I see the results as not so good compared to the previous quarters. And even getting USFDA approval is taking long time. What's your take on Shilpa now? As per technical charts the stock is still bullish.

Thanks.

Hi Sabsubs,

I am quite bullish on Shilpa especially considering the FY16 expected numbers. Look at the capacity creation (Fixed assets) in the recent years. The company has laid foundation for multiple growth drivers. As far as I understand the USFDA observations were not that serious and another visit by them is not required for approvals. The company is quite conservative and builds capacity only if definite business growth visibility is there.

The AGM is on 20th, will update if I get any critical piece of info.

Thank you for your technical view on CCL.

Hi VindyWheels

Spent the entire weekend reading many of your posts and really liked your approach.

I am invested in Jayant Agro, KSCL, Symphony, Shilpa, Page and Ajanta. Interestingly all Pharma companies seem to be doing well. Thanks for your valuable insights on how to pick.

Exited Page as the share holders sold shares a lot of shares.

Keep enlightening us with your simple but effective analysis.

Another stocks that I have zeroed in is Amara Raja batteries - What would be your take on it ?

Cheers

-Sateesh

Thank you Sateesh.

Amararaja is a good company. I had kept my hands off due to the promoter's direct involvement in politics. They have been consistently beating Exide in growth rate. But I haven't delved deep.

You seem to have some of my favorites in your portfolio - Symphony, Shilpa, Kaveri, Page and Ajanta. Assuming you had invested in these gems a year ago, you'd have more than tripled your portfolio :) Congrats! But long way to go for all of them... consider selling only if there is considerable froth in the broader market or if these companies trade at valuations that are really stretched. Well it's a bit tricky isn't it?

clap:

Vindywheels - I did see the wonderful overlap. Thanks for the tip on Amara Raja - When I read their CSR I was quite impressed but little did I realize the background reason. And this is the reason for me staying away from Reliance too.

A lot of the folks who I talk to feel that this is a part of Multi Year bull run but I am concerned about the build of the bubble.

But am not too worried as most of the scrip seem to have been chosen correctly if I may say so.

I don't know if you would agree but the renaissance this time seem to be driven by Pharma. My exposure to Pharma with Coral Labs and Suven has crossed the 30% margin..

Ajantha and Shilpa are displaying significant resistance at current levels. Guess it is consolidating for the climb up (Now don't call it wishful thinking)

I will book profit when there is a need.

Missed out on ADI which was a great Multi Bagger early this year. Would you recommend an entry at the CMP of ADI Finechem ?

Continue to share the exec summaries as it helps to believe our convictions too

Have fun

Hi Vindy,

While you have started looking at CCL, I did start on Tata Coffee. I spent an entire day learning about how coffee is produced/made and it was a fun thing. As far as I have researched, Tata is a more involved player - right from growing coffee plants to making coffee powder, whereas CCL product sources the green coffee beans from its vendors and processes it. Tata Coffee's revenue growth is slower than that of CCL which I think is reflected in the current valuations.

Have many doubts and would love to discuss them in greater detail!

How far do you expect the current correction to go, 7700-7800 or so on NSE?

I think around 8000, I ll turn back unless some bad news starts pouring in from Iraq/Syria. If President Assad and America have a go at each other, I expect the market to nose dive like a stone falling from a building because of Russia and Iran being involved as allies to the Syria.

Hi Saanil, if you think the content you want to share is too long, we can do it through emails. CCL does not consider Tata coffee as their competition. Tata Coffee is too small as per CCL!

Their competition is Nestle. In the global instant coffee market, Nestle has more than 50% market share and CCL claims to have similar if not better products. They compete with Nestle globally through various pvt label players. In India they believe they can start looking at atleast a small market share through own brand with their "freeze-dried" instant coffee which is supposed to be much better than Nescafe which is "spray-dried". I am going to Hyderabad today evening for Kaveri Seed AGM and few other management meets. Will get hold of their "continental" coffee brand and see for myself :)

There is not much affect of raw coffee price fluctuations on CCL as they pre-sell their production and lock-in raw material price too. Their margins are largely protected. If you see, the EBITDA margins have increased from 11% around 5 years back to 20% now and is expected to improve further with the Vietnam plant running at better utilisations.

Listen to their latest earnings conference call audio file uploaded in researchbytes and you will get a fair idea.


Hi Sateesh,

I am also keeping a keen eye on the broader market, but believe there will only be temporary setbacks which anyway cannot be timed. As long as our companies keep coming out with great earnings growth, I'll be happy.

Pharma companies are great to have in one's portfolio especially the ones who have a research edge in their specific areas. Yes, last 5-6 years have seen pharma companies giving really outsized returns. I think Pharma can be something like IT...India has an edge here. We have the highest number of US FDA approved plants outside of US and have excellent research talent in chemistry compared to other countries. But USFDA inspections are giving sleep-less nights to many Pharma companies whose fortunes are dependent only on US market. That way Ajanta is an exception, they still haven't entered the US much and still come out with superlative earnings growth!

ADI, I am not comfortable at current price. But now-a-days you look like a fool every other day you say a company is not undervalued lol:

I guess my prediction turned out to be false. Nifty has broken the 8000 mark, now I am not sure what will happen. The world ques are turning out to be very negative too.