Team-BHP - Do you play the stock market

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ravveendrra (Post 1151017)

This mornings papers also have references to a total of 7 corporations eyeing Satyam.

Ever since Tarun Das joined the board we are getting to hear more and more new names "interested" in Satyam. I think Mr Das has taken the responsibility of just talking the Satyam share up. L&T is the only company that has put in hard cash to the tune of Rs 500 crore. Mr Naik tried to trivialise the amount by saying during the con-call that it's just 5 per cent of the L&T net worth. I am keen to know what percentage it is of the L&T free cash reserve.
I am also keen to know whether Mr Naik realises that the court cases in the US have the potential to wipe out the entire net worth of L&T and drive it out of business.

Sometime back I warned people here whose investment is strictly seeing "business"of companies,this term became very popular among investors in last 4 or 5 years.Most of managers use this term widely coping Mr.Buffet.
Now one simple question to those analysts from my side,
what happened in last 6 moths which took a toll of most of "Business"???

Question is simple,analyse it.

Why most of balance sheets which turn black from pink?Remember I am quite familiar with term known as recession but here I want to check why all business model failed at the same time!

My anwer one can find easily in this same thread.

The only business in my opinion runs well is FMCG,check price of HLL and ITC now,compare it with all time high of sensex with other prices of stocks.

Edit:-Pasting my old post here as quote.

Quote:

I don't agree though I know that this term "business"is a well known term among new investors,tell me if I am doing a business for example of chemicals how I can know the fundas of transport,petrolium,IT,Telecom sectors/business?You have to depend heavily on what management say right?Coz here atleast I don't know how they do "Business",what is their input cost,cost of making and marketing products,dependants of forex etc.,for Buffet this is surely a winning phrase("Business")coz his team does a lot of research for him,not our or my cup of tea.
Tip:-Next rally will be in FMCG do you know why?
No one can live without FMCG products,check their rates,they are at 18-19K sensex levels,I am talking of good FMCG and A grp.companies.Now their input cost will go down after a fuel price cut,at current senario they are still maintaining their bottom line,do not surprise if these old horses move up smartly in the next boom which may be a platform for another long term bull run,not in short term but in long term.

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambuhere1 (Post 1175880)

Need help in here.

Any websites that can give me data for various options and their premiums with time scales. I am looking for my text book learnings.

For e.g. Mar Put xxx premium ranges yyy yyy yyy

ECM , Can you guide me in this please ? I am specifically looking for call/put options data

Thanks a lot

The NSE site NSE - HomePage has tonnes of info. Look into their derivatives section and the quotes therein. Their archives are pretty good too.

They have a decent FAQ and tutorials section.

If you keep clicking on the tables, quotes etc. you are likely to find what you want like ranges, volumes etc.

Cheers,

lambuhere1
Puts and Calls where most of public is upto nowadays,better you start with selling calls or selling puts.Here you may need to pay some extra but this always fetches more profits than usual buying calls and buying puts.

OFFTOPIC

Gold nears short term top,better book profits in it.Why I call it a short term top coz in general any top in stocks or commodities can only be measured when price shoots up and then go down,swings in specific zone and then go down(check what happened with crude oil).

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambuhere1 (Post 1098026)

the way I am looking at the present situation is that from Oct 2008 when the panic stopped, for the time being, till march 2009 is like a consolidation phase, if you can understand the data from charts.

Believe the model is working fine for me. Broke Great Support of 8500 on BSE. If its not a BEAR TRAP, next target will be 6000 (purely personal conclusions). Will update the timelines. Feeling is that its a BEAR TRAP. Watch your step :Frustrati

Quote:

Originally Posted by lambuhere1 (Post 1197023)

Believe the model is working fine for me. Broke Great Support of 8500 on BSE. If its not a BEAR TRAP, next target will be 6000 (purely personal conclusions). Will update the timelines. Feeling is that its a BEAR TRAP. Watch your step :Frustrati

Hmm, I am not familiar with the term "Bear Trap". Does it mean a trap to catch bears off-guard, or is it something the bear sets - akin to a "dead cat bounce" or "bear market rally"?

I too feel that the market will perhaps touch 6000 on one or two occasions (perhaps intra-day) but the general level I expect is about 7000 to 7500. If talk is to be believed, after the low - the markets will breach 20,000 levels rather quickly and perhaps hit 30,000 in about 2 years. (Scientific basis? = Nil!)

@mmmjgm:

If the tax department's figures are any indication - 31 March figures are going to be dismal. Not only have advance tax remittances plummeted, the TDS (Tax Deducted at Source) collections too have come down. The TDS figures are alarming for the reason set out in the next para.

Advance tax is paid by the companies on their expected profit, companies sometimes delay advance tax payment due to cash crunch etc. TDS on the other hand, is deducted (and paid to Govt.) whenever a payment is made by the company (to suppliers etc). If TDS has come down, it means that payments have reduced. This is indicative of a shrinking economy.

The GDP figures released also show a growth of about 5%. A huge portion of this, is the pay increase to Govt. employees (pay commission pay-out). Both the industrial and agricultural sectors have shrunk.

Things are expected to look up from May / June 2009. The market normally starts it's uptrend slightly before the companies recover. Maybe one can start investing cautiously.

Note & Disclaimer: I am not a economist or a stock market expert. In this post I have stated what I believe (with no basis) and have at places summarised what I have learnt in conversations with various persons.

Cheers, there is no way out but up!

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ravveendrra (Post 1198112)

Hmm, I am not familiar with the term "Bear Trap". Does it mean a trap to catch bears off-guard or is it something the bear sets - akin to a "dead cat bounce" or "bear market rally"?

I too feel that the market will perhaps touch 6000 on one or two occasions (perhaps intra-day) but the general level to expect is about 7000 to 7500. If talk is to be believed, after the low the markets will breach 20,000 levels rather quickly and perhaps hit 30,000 in about 2 years. (Scientific basis? = Nil!)

@mmmjgm:

Cheers, there is no way out but up!

Dude, the write offs will enter the balance sheet here (31/3/2009) also the Institutional investors will show their losses & lowered offtake.

Tax uptake by the department is a different thing altogether, agreed yes a macro economic parameter, however what the companies report will be an eye opener.

Therefore nut shelled info, hold on your horses. Or go in for informed choices (read as highly researched parameters).

Regards
M M

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ravveendrra (Post 1198112)

Hmm, I am not familiar with the term "Bear Trap". Does it mean a trap to catch bears off-guard, or is it something the bear sets - akin to a "dead cat bounce" or "bear market rally"?

My simple understanding of the bear trap is like this [Experts can correct me in here, I am still learning]
Overall sentiment is down in the market, totally pessimistic. Everyone wants to get out at the available momemt [Similar to what we are seeing]. This is generally seen at various strong support and resistance breakages. In present case, we had a strong support @ 8500, which was peirced, and technically, the next target is 6000. Now the mood is TOTALLY pessimistic. All are selling to get out. This is the momemt all the bulls are waiting for. They see the oppurtunity and then rake up the prices and then the market is moving. You see its like you are TRAPPED. These traps are very storng is sentiment and they may go beyond imagination. Like in the current situation, if I believe its a BEAR trap, you exit all your positions with loss. Before your eyes, bulls enter and the market enters a positive territory and if you held your positions, you could have made some profit / breakeven, which is a trap / oppurtunity lost.
If this is effectively is a bear trap, my personal belief is that we can see 10000 soon.

Believe need to understand, Dead Cat Bounce

Quote:

Originally Posted by ECM (Post 1199997)

I am going long now in Nifty,probably its time to do some bottom fishing.CMP of Nifty fut is around 2570 when I type this.

Careful, i suggest you buy some PUTS also with it and work out the best return. Also if you are confident about markets going up then buy some calls usually they are very cheap in falling markets. Some of the advantages as I see

* Plain Futures are always at a discount to SPOT in a downward trend - meaning the percentage return while they going up would be less.

* In one relief rally which might be very soon around - today 4th day of being the continous fall you might get a good bump up

* By buying calls you are limiting your downside.

* Calls are usually very cheap when markets have gone down on a trot.

All the best.

Disclaimer:- I am no stock market analyst, I just love tracking stocks - follow it very closely and most of the what I have written above is just my observation.