Quote:
Originally Posted by Thilak29 Tesla is the new Apple.Their Semi truck will rule 700 billion $ industry!
What an amazing product. |
Though a big fan of Musk and his companies, I would not be so sure about this. No doubt that the launch was an example in showmanship (much like Apple Keynotes were) and that it is a revolutionary product. It will also find a market but Tesla seems to be stretching it's hands and legs far and wide without being able to set solid ground to verticals they have already dipped their fingers into.
Case in point is the Model 3. Most of the 500,000+ people who paid $1000 up-front for the Model 3 still don't have a definitive delivery date for their vehicles due to an increasing list of problems like steel welding (Model 3 is made of steel as it's cheaper unlike the aluminum Model S) being faced by the Assembly Line in Fremont, CA and the Battery Gigafactory in Nevada.
Musk himself said "We're going to go through at least six months of production hell".
They have produced just 260 units in the last quarter compared to a 1,500 target for September alone with plans to ramp up to 20,000 a month by the year's end.
The problem it seems is the fact that they skipped a few essential assembly line prototyping steps that other manufacturers usually undertake leading to unforeseen problems during actual production.
They announced that the truck would begin production in 2019 and would be seen on the roads in 2020 but given how things are going, I would not count on that as a sure thing.
That aside, unlike in the case of the Model S, X and 3 which were truly unlike anything anyone was making, the Semi-truck is more like their Roadster i.e, there is competition.
The competition comes from established players as well as startups. Many have showcased their products before Tesla did and some even have them plying on the roads already. Some are conventional compared to Tesla's showcase whereas others like the Einride will truly 'blow your mind'. :P
Not all of them are makers of electric trucks though. Some are self-driving truck software companies, some are promoting hydrogen fuel-cell powered trucks that won't need refueling for 1million miles whereas others are just making electric drive trains for other manufacturers. All of them can be considered a direct or indirect competition to Tesla's product specially if them team up to explore synergies.
Without going into much detail, I will list the ones I am aware of and provide links for further exploration.
Of the established players, we have:
1.
Daimler Fuso E-Canter
Daimler, the parent for BharatBenz claims that it was the first fully electric light truck in the world. It should be noted, that it has a stated range of just 100km which isn't a bad start given that it is on sale in 2017 and is meant for the city. It is also a lot more conventional than the Tesla truck and also has a transmission that powers the wheels.
2.
Cummins AEOS
The engine maker Cummins also demonstrated a Semi dubbed Aeos that will go into production in 2019 with an extended range (300 miles) version that will come in a year later.
What is interesting is that Cummins will not actually be making a truck but will provide the battery electronics systems to others which helps to level the playing field for smaller players.
3.
Volkswagen E-Delivery
Desperate to shake off the negative image that it earned itself following the Dieselgate scandal, VAG is betting $1.7bn on it's e-products and is looking to expedite programs.
They have partnered with Navistar International (The Mahindra buddies) to launch a medium-duty all electric Semi in the US market around 2019 as well.
Then there are startups:
1.
Nikola One
These guys are gunning for a totally different technology. Hydrogen. It is slated to have an 800-1200 mile range and zero emissions. Fill up time is 15 mins. On paper, that's much better than what the Tesla truck offers. What's more is that they are offering free fuel for 1 million miles!
2.
Embark
These guys have a laser focus on developing self-driving technologies for trucking at a time when most of the companies are focussed on self-driving car technology.
They have clients like Electrolux and Ryder who are already using their trucks to move things around the US.
3.
Einride T-Pod
By far, the most revolutionary of the lot, Einride pitches it as the next generation's self-driving, electric propulsion disruptive transport solution. The most distinctive feature is the fact that these 'Pods' are completely driverless! They have apparently already built their first prototype and are testing it with plans to launch it on Swedish highways by 2018 where they aren't technically illegal.
These are the ones I know of. I am sure there are many more I don't know of. All said and done, Tesla will probably be a dominant player but will not be without competition which is a great thing!