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Old 19th September 2013, 17:47   #46
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Here is what I normally feel, " do you want one time heart attack (at the time of buying - diesel ) or daily "(whenever u go to the fuel station - petrol).

Like in Singapore, where the private vehicles have to be petrol driven, the chance of petrol outselling/equalling diesel is not going to happen in the near future.

The ratio will definitely vary once the petrol prices go up and the two benefits of fuel price & better mileage will steer diesel sales always.
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Old 19th September 2013, 19:14   #47
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Quote:
Originally Posted by gopa99 View Post
Thanks, one doubt, is this data considering all vehicles under passenger car category? i.e hatchs, sedans, suv's and pickups all included?
Quote:
Originally Posted by RSR View Post
This data is only for cars with both petrol and diesel engine options, whose sales split for the respective month was provided by the manufacturer, irrespective of body style. So if a manufacturer had provided a sales split for that month, it would be included. This list may vary from month to month, and is available in the monthly sales threads posted by GTO and parrys.
@gopa99: I have just tried and divided the sales figures by Manufacturer and body configuration too.

@RSR: I have just picked these figures from the monthly sales report done by GTO and Parrys. Thanks to them and thanks to you too for starting this thread.

Here you go:

HATCHBACK
Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!-hatch.jpg

SEDAN
Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!-sedan.jpg

UV/MUV/SUV
Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!-uv.jpg

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Any refinement needed on this please let me know will correct them. Trying to get this data in Graphs too for easier understanding and readability. The number feel cluttered but put it for the start.

Anurag.
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Old 19th September 2013, 19:44   #48
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Quote:
Originally Posted by a4anurag View Post
@gopa99: I have just tried and divided the sales figures by Manufacturer and body configuration too.

Anurag.
Superb Anurag! Great data that helps the thread.
One comment - against Maruti (big big pie of total car sales) has zero sales recorded for hatch back and sedan, from Jan to May. Any idea why this is so?
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Old 19th September 2013, 19:46   #49
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Originally Posted by gopa99 View Post

Superb Anurag! Great data that helps the thread.
One comment - against Maruti (big big pie of total car sales) has zero sales recorded for hatch back and sedan, from Jan to May. Any idea why this is so?
GTO and his team would not have been provided with the numbers to add in to that places. Bad Maruti.

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Old 20th September 2013, 20:46   #50
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

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Originally Posted by StarScream View Post
Considering that diesel is cheaper in India plus the cars that use it more efficient, one will end up driving them more and hence use up more fuel during the life cycle of the car, which negates any mileage and hence emissions advantages.
1. Please do not mix carbon footprint and life cycle emissions. These are two different things and should stay separate. Foot print will be emissions per unit of distance traveled and thus are lower for diesel compared to petrol.

2. "End up driving more" - can again be attributed to human tendency and thus this is not fault of the engine and the fuel which performs efficiently compared to petrol motors.

3. Soot is not GHG. The authority on GHG is United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Please visit the web link unfccc.int

Cheers

Last edited by i74js : 20th September 2013 at 20:54.
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Old 21st September 2013, 21:08   #51
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

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Originally Posted by i74js View Post
1. Please do not mix carbon footprint and life cycle emissions. These are two different things and should stay separate. Foot print will be emissions per unit of distance traveled and thus are lower for diesel compared to petrol.

2. "End up driving more" - can again be attributed to human tendency and thus this is not fault of the engine and the fuel which performs efficiently compared to petrol motors.

3. Soot is not GHG. The authority on GHG is United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Please visit the web link unfccc.int

Cheers
I'm a bit puzzled by this debate because I agreed with you in my previous post that on a per km basis, diesel is more efficient. However, I broadened the argument to say that isn't the only way to look at it. You now are narrowing the argument by excluding all data to fit the limited construct, which has already been agreed upon in the first place.

There are basic problems with your case. Why should carbon footprint not be explained in terms of life-cycle emissions? After all, the former extrapolated over the life of a product will lead to the latter. Also why should we only consider carbon footprint per km traveled and not per unit of fuel consumed? I presume you are resisting the latter because it disproves your case.

Similarly, why should I not consider human behavior? After all, humans are the ones driving the cars, right? I'd think humans and their behavior is a critical factor. Why does the UNFCCC, which you refer to, call it anthropogenic climate change?

Lastly, you are correct that the UNFCCC doesn't include black carbon in its list of GHGs. But should a convention whose last big success was the Kyoto Protocol in 1997 really be used as an example? The UNFCCC uses the IPCC as its scientific climate change study arm. The IPCC says black carbon is a problem:
http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_...2s2-4-4-3.html
Should we ignore newer studies in the absence of an official definition? I choose not to ignore relevant information.

I'd love to be proved wrong and buy a diesel car with a clear conscience. Please give me proof that disproves any of what I've said.

Cheers
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Old 28th September 2013, 14:54   #52
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Default Overall petrol-diesel sales split for the Indian market.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Eddy View Post
While the data presented is interesting, this actually prevents us from knowing the overall Diesel : Petrol split. Would love to know those figures
Quote:
Originally Posted by RSR View Post
Absolutely! This is just for cars that have both petrol and diesel engine options. The total diesel-petrol sales divide can be obtained by utilising the numbers of the petrol-only cars and the diesel-only cars for the ratio. I'll try to calculate the total split for one month and post it later.
As promised, I have managed to calculate the total overall petrol-diesel sales split for the month of Aug 2013 (at least for all manufacturers who share monthly numbers).

This was helped by the fact that in August 2013, all manufacturers who give out monthly numbers shared their petrol-diesel sales split.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GTO View Post
Valid point, the data is indeed limited.

However, do note that the number of petrol-only options (Alto, WagonR, Eon, i10, Omni etc.) blow away the diesel-only options in terms of sheer numbers.
That is indeed true, GTO. Despite that, the overall sales surprisingly remain skewed towards diesel. There is now solid proof that India is a diesel heavy market. Here it is:

August 2013 total petrol sales - 87,484

August 2013 total diesel sales - 1,02,413

Overall petrol-diesel sales ratio - 87,484 : 1,02,413 ~ 46 : 54

Note: Ratio calculated from the monthly sales figures for August 2013 based on the numbers provided by manufacturers. Petrol sales include vehicles with factory-fitted CNG & LPG kits, as well as petrol-electric hybrids.

There are premium manufacturers (Audi, BMW, Jaguar-Land Rover, Mercedes, Volvo etc.) as well as non-mainstream manufacturers (Force, HM for Amby, ICML & Premier) who have not shared their numbers for August 2013 (most of them don't provide monthly sales numbers at all). Given the fact that the vast majority of vehicles sold in both these categories would be diesel, one can conclude that the petrol-diesel sales split would be marginally more skewed towards diesel than 46 : 54.

Perhaps ~ 45 : 55 would be the grand overall petrol-diesel sales ratio for all passenger vehicles sold in India (for the month of August 2013).

Last edited by RSR : 28th September 2013 at 15:01.
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Old 4th October 2013, 04:52   #53
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RSR View Post
There are premium manufacturers (Audi, BMW, Jaguar-Land Rover, Mercedes, Volvo etc.) as well as non-mainstream manufacturers (Force, HM for Amby, ICML & Premier) who have not shared their numbers for August 2013 (most of them don't provide monthly sales numbers at all). Given the fact that the vast majority of vehicles sold in both these categories would be diesel, one can conclude that the petrol-diesel sales split
Hey RSR,

What I feel that is the German giants would have a sale of diesels more than petrols. All Bimmers, Audi's and Merc's that I see are diesels hardly any petrol variants.

One thing that I fail to understand is why these guys don't share the figures of sale. Why so much secrecy as it would kill their sales or make them ashamed etc.

If all companies pitch-in their respective sales figures of all cars then the Diesel: Petrol ratio would be 60:40.
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Old 4th October 2013, 09:10   #54
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Now that it has been ingrained into a generation of car buyers, everyone will look to buy a new diesel car.

Usually I also find that someone buying a used car prefers to buy a petrol variant. It could be because;
- Depreciation on petrol cars using high petrol prices as a negotiating tactic
- Overpriced diesel cars in used car market quoting diesel pricing
- Diesel cars in the used market have clocked more miles than their petrol cousins
- Maintenance cost for used diesel cars. for example, costs for the timing belt in Skodas post 70k kms. Dont roast me for the number, I am focussing on the additional cost
- If a car has clocked less kms, it means that much less wear and tear and expenses on maintenance
- Normal word of mouth advice is to buy a new car if its a diesel, especially for the long term. It is not what I say, but what I have heard from multiple self appointed gurus

Ergo, I would say as many users looking for a new car are weaned away to the used car market. For example, if I have a budget of 6L, I would get maybe an entry level sedan or a basic variant. At the same price I could get a 2 or 3 year old petrol higher variant or just a better car. Think Brio vs. Civic (not that I am recommending a Honda!) but we get a bigger car for the same money!

This could also result in a skewed number in the new car market.

Edit: Meanwhile, in the news today:
http://www.livescience.com/40151-die...wer-trail.html

Not that we would change our buying preference, but just one more hammer to hit diesel with!
The flowers and bees should apply for a restraining order on all those diesel cars

Last edited by selfdrive : 4th October 2013 at 09:17.
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Old 4th October 2013, 12:18   #55
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Just a small query on the data...

Are we looking at total sales? i think we need to look more into categorised sales, like personal buyers and commercial fleet owners.

given the latter category would stick more to diesel mills, the proportion of personal buyers and commercial buyer's would affect the final sale figures.

I somehow feel personal buyers have shifted more towards petrol cars. The reason for that is

a) a higher proportion of buyers of the largest selling segment (hatchback or entry level sedan) are mostly urban commuters with occasional or very rare highway trips. The high number of 3 pot Wagon R/ Alto sales consistently seem to suggest that. If monthly run is even around 1000Km, buying the diesel would not make much sense.
For this segment, price is a very big factor, and recent economic conditions like high interest rates, rising overall cost of living etc makes the diesel premium too costly. Upfront costs often weigh more heavily than monthly running costs over time.

b) it is cheaper to upgrade to higher level petrol variant or to a different car with better features than to shift to the diesel variant for the same price.

c) lucrative offers given by car sellers on petrol variants given till then diesel demands were higher, and overall car demand was falling. The offers given by Figo or even Vento on petrol variants vis-a-vis diesel are such examples. Everybody loves a good deal and VFM it seemingly offers. Freebies and discounts worth 40,000 on a 4 lakh car (say) is almost 10% of total costs!!! takes care of month(s) of your emi right away!!

The shift in the overall ratio can also be due to lowering of commercial vehicle buyers. IF the present economic conditions signal slowdown, commercial fleet operators would cut down on buying, like it reflects in truck sales. In such a scenario, a normal rate of personal car buying would tip the scale in favour of petrol car sales even more.

having said all this, i am aware that getting such breakups is difficult, and would like to extend my appreciation on the painstaking efforts required to compile this given set of data.
It is initiatives like these that make Team-bhp stand out from the rest.
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Old 4th October 2013, 14:25   #56
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RSR View Post
August 2013 total petrol sales - 87,484

August 2013 total diesel sales - 1,02,413

Overall petrol-diesel sales ratio - 87,484 : 1,02,413 ~ 46 : 54

Perhaps ~ 45 : 55 would be the grand overall petrol-diesel sales ratio for all passenger vehicles sold in India (for the month of August 2013).

India's fuel price sensitivity is very high. With the last price hike(7th increase since June) on 14th Sept seems to have caused a shift to diesel. September figures show a huge skew towards diesel

http://www.team-bhp.com/forum/indian...ml#post3256579 (September 2013 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis)

Diesel at 70,643 units or 69.6% vs Petrol at 30,793 or 30.4% shows a massive swing. A swing of close to 15% is massive and I would have never have imagined this amount of sensitivity to fuel price hikes. Also the diesel got a push by the 4500 units of i10 Grand, which is a cannibalization of the i10 petrol cars.

In the backdrop of the Rs. 3+ reduction in petrol prices on 30th Sept and expected additional discounts in petrol, one could anticipate higher petrol sales in October. It will be interesting to watch these figures next month.

Cheers

KPS
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Old 5th October 2013, 18:50   #57
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Smile Updated, more accurate data and chart

Quote:
Originally Posted by RSR View Post
I'll prepare one as an example and post it later.
Here is the promised chart, which includes the ratio for the month of Sep 2013, from the September sales thread (September 2013 : Indian Car Sales Figures & Analysis).

The diesel-petrol sales split for 2013 so far:

Jan - 41845 : 10185 ~ 4 : 1

Feb - 13466 : 3900 ~ 3.5 : 1

Mar - 38714 : 8212 ~ 4.75 : 1

Apr - 40918 : 12025 ~ 3.5 : 1

May - 33846 : 11711 ~ 3 : 1

Jun - 49405 : 24197 ~ 2 : 1

Jul - 46675 : 22018 ~ 2 : 1

Aug - 66542 : 25314 ~ 2.75 : 1

Sep - 70643 : 30793 ~ 2.25 : 1

The above data in the form of a chart:

Name:  Sales Ratio.bmp
Views: 2510
Size:  501.5 KB

I'm not good at working on spreadsheets, so apologies for the ordinary quality of the chart. It represents the diesel-petrol sales ratio in the form of n : 1 approximated to the nearest 0.25 (instead of 0.5) for better accuracy. So a value of 2 on the x-axis means diesels outsold petrols in the ratio of ~ 2 : 1 for that particular month.

If the value touches the green line, it means the sales of diesels equal those of petrols (ratio of 1 : 1) and if it goes below the green line, it means petrols outsell diesels (a scenario which seems unlikely). The portion above the green line can be considered as the x-axis, and that below the green line can be considered as the x'-axis. In such a case, the x-axis and x'-axis do not use the same scale.

Of course, the values contained in this chart represent the total of only those models whose diesel-petrol sales split was available for that particular month (and NOT overall diesel-petrol sales). As usual, petrol sales include factory fitted CNG and LPG bi-fuel models and petrol-electric hybrids.
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Old 5th October 2013, 19:48   #58
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Quote:
Originally Posted by a4anurag View Post
Hey RSR,

What I feel that is the German giants would have a sale of diesels more than petrols. All Bimmers, Audi's and Merc's that I see are diesels hardly any petrol variants.

One thing that I fail to understand is why these guys don't share the figures of sale. Why so much secrecy as it would kill their sales or make them ashamed etc.

If all companies pitch-in their respective sales figures of all cars then the Diesel: Petrol ratio would be 60:40.
I too believe the premium manufacturers would sell mostly diesel cars. Their petrol models would hardly sell, though they have them in their line-ups. The same is applicable in the case of non-mainstream manufacturers as mentioned in my last post. These two categories of manufacturers don't provide data for reasons best known to them

Until they provide the monthly data, we can only make assumptions about the total overall petrol-diesel sales ratio. Or be satisfied with the accurate ratio for the mainstream manufacturers, and leave out the premium and non-mainstream ones.

Quote:
Originally Posted by selfdrive View Post
Edit: Meanwhile, in the news today:
http://www.livescience.com/40151-die...wer-trail.html

Not that we would change our buying preference, but just one more hammer to hit diesel with!
The flowers and bees should apply for a restraining order on all those diesel cars
I guess this means India's honey production would reduce drastically over the next few years

Although a diesel car emits relatively less grams of CO2 compared to its petrol equivalent, diesel engine exhaust also contains a nasty ingredient called particulate matter. This is controlled to a certain extent only in countries where Euro-V emission standards (or even more stringent ones) are applicable.

Particulate matter is also known to be carcinogenic in nature. We need to implement Euro-V norms as soon as possible throughout the country (and not just in select cities).

Quote:
Originally Posted by amitayu View Post
Just a small query on the data...

Are we looking at total sales? i think we need to look more into categorised sales, like personal buyers and commercial fleet owners.

having said all this, i am aware that getting such breakups is difficult, and would like to extend my appreciation on the painstaking efforts required to compile this given set of data.
It is initiatives like these that make Team-bhp stand out from the rest.
Thank you, amitayu!

Yes, personal and commercial sales data can only be provided by all the dealers put together, based on actual registrations done at RTOs across the country. It's not going to be easy even for manufacturers to get such data.

So they provide only what they have, which is factory sales (dispatches to dealers). This would include all vehicles being moved out to dealers, and even manufacturers would not know at that time if they are going to sport white registration plates or yellow ones after registration.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KPS View Post
India's fuel price sensitivity is very high. With the last price hike(7th increase since June) on 14th Sept seems to have caused a shift to diesel.

In the backdrop of the Rs. 3+ reduction in petrol prices on 30th Sept and expected additional discounts in petrol, one could anticipate higher petrol sales in October. It will be interesting to watch these figures next month.
Yes, indeed. The ratio is closely linked to the actual retail prices of petrol and diesel. An excellent chart has been created by ambadan to prove the same. It can be found earlier in the thread on post #16 (Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!).

Quote:
Originally Posted by KPS View Post
Diesel at 70,643 units or 69.6% vs Petrol at 30,793 or 30.4% shows a massive swing. A swing of close to 15% is massive and I would have never have imagined this amount of sensitivity to fuel price hikes.
Actually, the diesel-petrol sales at 70643 : 30793 (~ 2.25 :1) for Sep 2013 is only for those models with both engine options, whose diesel-petrol sales split is available. The comparable data for Aug 2013 would be 66542 : 25314 (~ 2.75 : 1).

This ratio does not represent the overall petrol-diesel sales numbers. The overall petrol-diesel sales ratio was calculated for the month of Aug 2013 and it was 87,484 : 1,02,413 (~ 46 : 54). This includes sales of all petrol vehicles and all diesel vehicles, which can be calculated by adding the numbers of petrol-only and diesel-only vehicles to those whose split numbers were available for that month. It could be done only for Aug 2013 as it was the only month in which all manufacturers shared their petrol-diesel split numbers.

In order to avoid confusion, I've used two different ratio formats. For cars with both options whose split numbers are available, the ratio is presented as ~ n : 1 (where n represents the factor by which diesels outsold petrols).

For the total overall sales ratio, I've used petrol : diesel as a % of 100. This total overall sales ratio is available only for Aug 2013 (46 : 54) as of now.

Last edited by RSR : 5th October 2013 at 19:58.
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Old 6th October 2013, 17:23   #59
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Default Re: Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!

Quote:
Originally Posted by RSR View Post
I too believe the premium manufacturers would sell mostly diesel cars. Their petrol models would hardly sell, though they have them in their line-ups. The same is applicable in the case of non-mainstream manufacturers as mentioned in my last post. These two categories of manufacturers don't provide data for reasons best known to them

Until they provide the monthly data, we can only make assumptions about the total overall petrol-diesel sales ratio. Or be satisfied with the accurate ratio for the mainstream manufacturers, and leave out the premium and non-mainstream ones.


Just found this article while browsing ET.

Source: http://articles.economictimes.indiat...ury-car-market

Quote:
After inching ahead of Audi in July, the maker of three pointed stars - Mercedes Benz India has strengthened its lead by re-claiming the pole position for the month of September by selling over 1,011 units. Mercedes Benz led by 46 units in September, with Audi posting sales of 965 units.

Led by the new generation compact cars A Class and B Class, Mercedes Benz India has not only reclaimed the number 1 position for the month, but for the entire July to September quarter. Mercedes Benz India was ahead of Audi by selling 151 units more. Mercedes Benz India sold 2,696 units in July to September of 2013 as against 2,545 units sold by Audi in the same period.

Mercedes Benz first overtook its Munich based luxury car rival BMW in the first quarter of 2013 to regain the number two position and now Audi in the quarter 3, but for the full year, it is still number two.

Audi is still pretty on the number one position for the calendar year starting January to September 2013, with sales of 7,391 units. Mercedes Benz India trails by a significant 930 units, registering sales of 6,461 units in the same period.

ET learns that BMW India, which does not officially share numbers, has sold about 6,100 units in January to September 2013 period.

Announcing the Q3 results, Eberhard Kern, MD & CEO, Mercedes-Benz India said: "Our year of offensive strategy yielded satisfactory result as we continue to improve our strong performance with each quarter, amidst one of the toughest market situations faced by the industry. We are confident of maintaining this positive momentum for the remaining quarter and achieve our targeted growth for 2013."

Audi on its part with the locally produced Q3 and expanding dealer network is confident of holding on to its number 1 position for 2013 and aims at being the first luxury car maker in India to sell more than 10,000 units in India.

After growing by 25-30 per cent since 2007 till 2011-12, the luxury car market too is facing the heat of the slowdown. Barring the entry level cars like Mercedes Benz A Class, B Class, BMW 1 Series and some SUVs like Audi Q3 and Q5, which brought incremental volumes in 2013, the traditional saloon segment of Mercedes Benz C Class, E Class, S Class, BMW 3, 5 or 7 series and even Audi A4, A6 and A8 have remained sluggish.

The pole position see-sawed between the three in recent years.

BMW overtook Mercedes Benz as the number one player in the luxury car space in 2009, and as Audi gained, Mercedes fell to the No 3 position in the first half of 2012. In 2012, BMW did not see growth, selling 9,375 units, while Audi grew at 63 per cent to sell just over 9,000 units. JLR and Volvo also posted growth of 32 per cent and 150 per cent respectively albeit on a low base. The overall luxury car market in 2012 grew by over 15 per cent-17 per cent to around 28,500 units to 29,000 units.
Anurag.
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Old 5th November 2013, 03:44   #60
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Default Re: Updated, more accurate data and chart

Quote:
Originally Posted by RSR View Post
Here is the promised chart, which includes the ratio for the month of Sep 2013,
I have added the September and October'13 figures in my chart and here they are.

Hatchback Style:
Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!-hatch.jpg

Sedan Style:
Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!-sedan.jpg


UV / MUV / SUV Style:
Diesel:Petrol Car Sales Ratio. Major Shift in favour of Petrol Cars!-uv.jpg

Cheers,
Anurag.
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