re: Government wants to make Airbags & ABS standard on new cars Quote:
Originally Posted by 1100D Another positive outcome from this is that, there will be a frenzy on part of the manufacturers to have as many new models launched as they can before October '15 (So that they get into the 2 year lee-way period to comply). So till October '15 it promises to be an exciting race for all. |
I too thought the same initially but on second thoughts, I don't think we'll see such a mad rush. Even for the existing models, they have to do it by 2017. 2017 deadline for compliance would mean most manufacturers have to plan on being compliant at least a few months before that since they cannot sell the pending stock from the last couple of months anywhere in India after they cross the deadline. Also, there would be some players in the current line up who are already compliant on the day the new standards are announced. So it would mean competing with them.
Since we are only speaking about launching totally new models here just before the 2015 October to get 2 year grace period, here are the scenarios I can think of:
Scenario 1:
Product is already ready to be launched and is in the final stages of testing. It is going to meet the new standards in its current form. -They don't have to worry about Oct 2015 date.
Scenario 2:
Product is in the design/development stage and require considerable work to be completed. However, it is going to meet the new standards in its current design based on the simulations. - They don't have to worry about Oct 2015 date either.
Scenario 3:
Product is ready to be launched and is in the final stages of testing. It is not going to meet the new standards in its current form but needs only minor redesign/changes to make it compliant. - Their current plan would be a date earlier than Oct 2015 since the product is ready and have the option of launching it in the next few months and get a 2+ year period. Most likely, the companies might go ahead with the current plan since the guidelines could be delayed by a few months and they cannot wait against a floating deadline. October 2015 deadline is assuming they have the NCAP and the standards ready in March and a 6 month implementation time.
Scenario 4:
Product is in the design or development stage and require considerable work to be completed. It is not going to meet the new standards in its current design based on the simulations but should be possible to meet it with minor changes. - They would continue the work and ensure they build it in a way that it is compliant from day 1. Again, no need to worry about Oct 2015 since they are compliant.
Scenario 5:
Product is in the design/development stage and require considerable work to be completed. It is going to meet the new standards in its current design based on the simulations. - They are better off saving further R&D costs on a model that cannot be produced for even 2 years by scrapping the project and starting from square one. There is no way they can recover the costs in 2 years.
Scenario 6:
Product is already ready to be launched and is in the final stages of testing. It is not going to meet the new standards in its current form and needs major redesign to make it compliant. - They'll have to launch it before October 2015 to make it as it is for another 2 years. Even if they cannot recover the entire cost, they might at least be able to reduce the loss if they are able to sell these for 2 years. However, common sense dictates that they'll have to offer heavy discounts push these off the shelves if it is known to be non-compliant. So high profits per car are also unlikely. Moreover, in 2 years when they re-design their product drastically to meet the new norms, it would have already attracted the label of a failed product. If they can export these to Africa or so, it might be worth continuing the effort; otherwise, no!
Thoughts?
Last edited by zenren : 5th November 2014 at 15:03.
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