[navinmra]

Originally Posted by rajshenoy

My 2 year old iPhone is at 85% battery health, so I wonder how an EV can be any different.

I think there’s a lot of misgivings on battery health. Not unexpected because we will extrapolate our experience with batteries that power our ubiquitous iPhones. Batterygate further strengthened our conviction about rapid battery degradation.

Battery cost (and the underlying tech) in iPhones is optimised to work for the life of the product. Apple wants you to upgrade your phone every year. Hence it’s not uncommon to see degradation to 85% in 2 years.

EV batteries on the other hand are designed for the lifespan of the car. My Nexon EV Max batteries have degraded by 0.41% in about 10 months and 15,000 km on the odo. See my post on the topic https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/elect...alculator.html (EV Battery degradation - A simple calculator?)

Tata Motors have an 8 yr / 1,60,000 km warranty on the battery and motor precisely for the same reason that these batteries are meant to last.

[navinmra]

Originally Posted by pgsagar

2.8 L discount on Nexon EVs? Where, when? When did that happen? I checked with dealer a few days back after MG cut ZS prices. No discounts, dealer said. Fearless +LR that I am interested in, still stands tall at Rs. 18.69L, ex-dealer. The only saving grace in my state is that AP govt waived off Life Tax (17%) on EVs. That's a massive saving of Rs.3.17L on Nexon Fearless+LR. No wonder EVs(almost all Tata's) are flying off shelves, in my state. But greedy me is waiting hoping Tata knocks a few L's off Nexon's price the way Mahindra and MG did, further sweetening the deal. But I can't wait forever because Life Tax waiver is for a short period, to be determined by state govt. based on no. of copies sold. If I wait too long, Life Tax maybe back. I buy too soon and Tata cuts prices post my buy, I will curse myself. So, I am caught here in a bit of a quandary. To wait, or not to wait.

I was in the same situation last year. I knew the facelift was around the corner yet unsure if taxes will go up. I bit the bullet and bought the Nexon EV Max Lux Dark edition. No regrets.
I think buying an EV is like buying an iPhone. There’s a new model coming each year. So better buy the one that’s on the shelf 😀

[Shresth_EV]

Originally Posted by navinmra

I think there’s a lot of misgivings on battery health. Not unexpected because we will extrapolate our experience with batteries that power our ubiquitous iPhones.

Exactly, it’s a naive to comparison because of how uninformed and inaccurate it is. Just because both have a battery, does not warrant same expectation.

Phone vs EV :

Daily charged from 20-80 (or worse 0-100) ie 1 cycle per day.
VS
Daily charged 60-80 for NMC (rarely depleted fully, 85-100 for our Nexon EV doing 40km daily) ie 1 cycle per week

Does not have battery temp management VS
Liquid cooled active temp management (heat reduces SoH)

Single cell designs (10-15Wh) being charged at 20W or more
VS
Nexon EV having 630 cells of 48Wh with each cell being charged at 4.5W/33.3W during slow/fast charging (2.8kW/21kW divided bw 630 cells)

Designed cycles 500 (~1.5y to reach 80% SoH in worst case)
VS
2000 designed cycles (5.5y to reach 80% SoH in worst case ie 0-100 daily) 2000 cycles = 300,000km on odo for Nexon EV (150km range worst case)

All three points are important to consider. Even if we do use the entire range on a road trip, not everyone is doing road trips everyday.

It’s once in a month affair or even less frequent for majority of people who are not car enthusiasts and are underrepresented on a car forum like ours.

If someone is using the car to its full range everyday for just commute alone (I know some people who do Lucknow Kanpur up down for work, ie ~180km per day) you are saving so much money, by the time you hit 2000 cycles on the battery, you’ve already saved enough to do battery replacement two times over.

Multi cell design is only showing up in phones for last 2-3y while it has been the norm in EV since day 1, putting much less stress (see C rate) on each cell.

Battery cooling cannot be overlooked either, best example would be comparison between longevity of nissan leaf and OG model S both around same age time wise but tesla with liquid cooling lasted far longer, some units doing half 200K miles or more with just 10% range drop.

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by thomahawk

I think the government can easily kill off demand of EV's if they chose to do so. Kerala has high demand for EV's - but the state electricity board who has a monopoly can easily kill it off by demanding separate metering for 4W EV's and introducing a different tariff for it. Even changing from net metering to gross metering for solar would have a cascading effect on EV demand.

How, once a month a man comes by to take the meter reading, how's he supposed to inspect what power line is used for charging purposes? For a state's governance that fails literally every management metric, even policy making is a challenge for technically incompetent ministers. Last thing they would want to do is to add roadblocks to the burgeoning solar sector, it's been a lifesaver for a state thats struggling with sufficient power generation.

EVs are the future, even a predominantly ignorant Kerala State government realises this. KSEB has been installing public charging points and the states own auto co. KAL has been making electric 3 wheelers. The comedy is that focus on the EV space is in Kerala's current industrial policy.

[volkman10]

Customer wants ICE cars; hence Aston Martin reverses course, will sell combustion cars into the 2030s.

Automakers left and right are reevaluating their EV strategies, including Aston Martin. The company recently postponed the launch of its first battery-electric vehicle from 2025 until 2027, and now the company’s executive chairman is expecting to continue selling combustion cars into the 2030s because that’s what its customers want.

Link:

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by volkman10

Customer wants ICE cars; hence Aston Martin reverses course, will sell combustion cars into the 2030s.



Link:

Only if they could sell combustion cars, their shares have fallen 90% and AM is heavily debt ridden. Even if they wanted to develop EVs, where's the money coming from?

[volkman10]

Tesla to lay off more than 10% of staff globally as sales fall.

Tesla will lay off more than 10% of its global workforce, an internal memo seen by Reuters on Monday shows, as it grapples with falling sales amid an intensifying price war for electric vehicles.
The world's largest automaker by market value had 140,473 employees globally as of December 2023, its latest annual report shows. The memo did not say how many jobs would be affected.

Tesla's CEO:

As we prepare the company for our next phase of growth, it is extremely important to look at every aspect of the company for cost reductions and increasing productivity

As part of this effort, we have done a thorough review of the organization and made the difficult decision to reduce our headcount by more than 10% globally

Link:

[volkman10]

Volkswagen delays ID.7 for North America over slowing EV market.

In a short statement, the company cites changing market dynamics as the reason for the delay.

"Volkswagen is committed to making market-driven choices while listening to our customers," the company said in a statement released this morning. "As market dynamics continue to change, Volkswagen is delaying the introduction of the ID.7 sedan in the U.S. and Canada."

Link:

[volkman10]

German EV sales drop ~31% in May.

The latest data indicates a drop of 30 percent for new EV registrations in Germany, with the end of incentives likely a key factor

BMW registrations stumbled by 32 percent, Mercedes by 29 percent.

Overall, Tesla suffered the steepest decline of any brand in May, with sales plummeting 64% year-over-year. Year-to-date, their performance remains equally weak, with a 41.4% decrease.

While SUVs remained the dominant body style, recording the most new registrations with a share of 29.3 percent, that’s a 5.5 percent decline from last year. The compact class managed to claw back a significant chunk of sales, with 29.1 percent growth and a market segment of 20.4 percent.

Link:

[volkman10]

Why electric car sales is not booming as expected!

- Nearly half of EV owners in America want to switch back to gas.

- Inadequate charging infrastructure is keeping people from buying EVs.

- Many companies are re-evaluating their EV plans

- Other reasons owners gave as to why they might switch back include the inability to charge at home (24 percent), the stress of worrying about charging (21 percent), and charging mobility requirements (16 percent). Only 13 percent said they did not enjoy the driving experience. Some people just enjoy driving a combustion car, like 18 percent of US respondents and 28 percent in Germany.

McKinsey & Co.'s 2024 Mobility Consumer Pulse study reveals that 46 percent of EV owners in the United States, well above the worldwide average of 29 percent, want to switch to gasoline cars because of the inadequate charging infrastructure. Thirty-five percent of global respondents said the public network isn't good enough yet. Thirty-four percent said EV ownership costs remain too high, while 32 percent said EVs impacted their driving patterns too much on long trips.

Shockingly, Americans aren't the most eager to switch back to gas. In Australia, a country known for its vast interior, 49 percent of EV owners are considering returning to the pump. At the opposite end of the spectrum is Japan, where only 13 percent of owners might return to a combustion-powered vehicle. Other countries below the worldwide average include Italy (15 percent), France (18 percent), Germany (24 percent), and China (28 percent). Brazil joins the US and Australia above the average at 38 percent.

Link:

[PreludeSH]

Ultimately consumers decide ! But do we really have mass market EVs from hatchbacks to family sedans to minivans ? No. Paying so much money for products at the higher end, people expect much more. Cost of ownership is not high priority for them.

For majority of people there are no EVs in the class they need. Not that infrastructure is going to cope up. Maybe car makers know this and hence might be one of the reasons they are not going fully mainstream.

[volkman10]

J.D. Power cuts 2024 EV sales forecast in US by more than 3%.

battery-powered models will account for just 9% of sales in the US this year, down from its previous forecast of 12.4%.

The revised projection comes a week after Ford Motor Co. retrenched its EV strategy, canceling an electric sport-utility vehicle and delaying a new plug-in pickup truck by almost two years. Other automakers, such as Volkswagen AG, have also pushed back production of EVs in response to slowing demand.

“One major driver of the slower-than-expected EV growth rate in the first half of this year has been increased competition in the market for gasoline-powered vehicle alternatives,” such as gas-electric hybrids.

The other headwind on EV sales has been ongoing consumer concerns with public charging infrastructure

data shows that EV sales were 7.6% of U.S. vehicle sales last year. The researchers said it sees EVs accounting for 36% of U.S. sales by 2030, well below the target of 50%, currently set.

Link:

[volkman10]

In USA, the new President elect's team decides to kill EV tax credit, and Tesla's chief is delighted. Legacy auto makers EV plans could be derailed.

-President-elect planning to kill the $US7,500 consumer tax credit for electric-vehicle purchases in the US, as his transition team plots a broad package of tax-reform legislation.

-It could slow down the already stalling uptake of EVs in the world’s biggest economy. Tesla – the dominant player in the US market – is happy with the move because it will effectively remove competition, along with the hefty tariff on Chinese imports.

-The IRA provides a tax credit of up to $7,500 for new electric vehicles that meet certain production requirements. The law also provides a tax credit of up to $4,000 for used electric vehicles, which is meaningful as the majority of consumers buy used vehicles. The current administration has ensured these consumer savings can be applied immediately at the point-of-sale.

-The President-elect has said that EVs would “kill” the U.S. auto industry, describing shift to electric cars as a “transition to hell”, and reportedly offered to gut pro-EV regulations in return for the oil lobby’s support for his candidacy. Vice president elect Vance has described EVs as a “scam.”

-Tesla's Chief has indicated he has no problems with the ditching of the tax credit.

-Tesla is now more interested in autonomous cars, or RoboCabs, than in EVs driven by humans.

Link:

[Mur7!r3ddy]

Ev sales may be down now but in future emission regulations, ethanol blending and diesel engines extreme prices and complexity will push people towards relatively simpler to maintain EV’s .

[extreme_torque]

Originally Posted by volkman10

-It could slow down the already stalling uptake of EVs in the world’s biggest economy. Tesla – the dominant player in the US market – is happy with the move because it will effectively remove competition, along with the hefty tariff on Chinese imports.

How would it eliminate competition if no one, including Tesla, receives the tax credit? What’s the justification here? Legacy carmakers have been building vehicles for over a century - that should be their advantage over Tesla as has always been said, right? Did the government need to incentivize people to switch from Nokia to iPhones? That said, the government should kill subsidies or tax credits for oil industries too.

Allowing Chinese imports wouldn’t harm Tesla at all since they already compete with Chinese manufacturers in China. Why wouldn’t they be able to compete in their home market? The real impact of Chinese imports would likely be on domestic legacy carmakers, which could struggle to keep up.