[1.2TSI7DSG]

What about fundamental sensor tech?
Most camera sensors use a Sony. Sony demonstrated a car that uses multi-sensors in the vehicles.

That aside, an aging population will make them biased to the thigs that worked in the yester years

[SmartCat]

Coming back to the topic - if car manufacturing does indeed shift from the Japan/Europe/America to China/India/Vietnam in the future, it is just a sign that the technological field has been levelled. That is, there is no significant quality/features differentiation between a product developed & manufactured in different countries.

Example 1: textile manufacturing was once the mainstay of Europe. But it no longer is the case. The baton has been handed over to different countries now. But Europe is still closely associated with the textile industry, but on a much different level of value addition. Machinery needed for textile manufacturing still comes from Europe. And New York/Paris/Milan etc still remains the fashion capital of the world.

Example 2: Development & manufacturing of consumer electronics like phones, music players, television etc.

It does not mean the former have "lost their way" in either textiles or automobiles or electronics. The process of shift in development/ manufacturing from one country to another over decades is 'normal'

Originally Posted by GutsyGibbon

AFAIK, Japs are not even competing in this space.

If this is true, then the Japanese economy would have been going down the drain, especially since they don't have much natural resources? How is it still among the top 5 economies of the world for all the metrics like GDP, strongest currency, imports/exports, forex reserves etc? Especially with its ageing population?

[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

If this is true, then the Japanese economy would have been going down the drain, especially since they don't have much natural resources? How is it still among the top 5 economies of the world for all the metrics like GDP, strongest currency, imports/exports, forex reserves etc? Especially with its ageing population?

I don't know if it's going down the drain, they do have a significant head start. Companies like Softbank have holdings in profitable ventures like ARM and other moonshot projects. My opinion is that Japanese economy will stagnate or shrink slowly. I am a lowly engineer, I may be very wrong.

My comment was in terms of investments in AI, and other related tech. Japanese companies have nothing to talk about here. Below news is just one company buying one platform.
https://www.pcmag.com/news/zuckerber...idia-h100-gpus

Others like Microsoft, and Google have even bigger investments and orders at other vendors of AI chips.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

When it comes to the electronics, the Japanese have just moved on to more high tech products. It no longer makes sense for them to sell relatively low tech electronics gadgets like laptops or smartphones.

The question is about brand recall and the ability to sell value added high margin end products. Today the biggest Japanese brand - Sony is doing $86 billion as revenue (FY 2022) where as biggest Korean brand - Samsung is doing $234 billion that is almost 3 times. To add more prespective, Sony's revenue in 2000 was $63.1 billion and Samsung's revenue in 2000 was $35.5 billion dollars see the difference in growth in the past 22 years

Take, for instance, the highly sought-after iPhone. Despite employing a Samsung display and a Sony camera sensor, it remains distinctly an Apple iPhone. Once someone becomes an iPhone user, the likelihood of them switching to a Samsung or Sony phone diminishes significantly.

The component-providing business, while essential, operates on thinner profit margins as it primarily relies on volume. Companies like Apple opt for this route as it relieves them of the burdensome investments in research and manufacturing for these components. The real profit lies in taking these components and fashioning them into products that captivate consumers, prompting them to pay a premium.

A notable analogy in India can be drawn from FIAT/Stellantis - they were the provider of the 1.3L MJD engine but nobody bought their vehicles. Now they are providers of the 2.0L Diesel engine to Tata, MG and Jeep. Still Jeep does the lowest number of sales.

Yet, within the Japanese landscape, companies like Sony manage to break the mold by offering niche products such as the Playstation. This unique offering remains unparalleled, showcasing the potential for differentiation and success beyond the confines of a component provider role.

If this is true, then the Japanese economy would have been going down the drain, especially since they don't have much natural resources? How is it still among the top 5 economies of the world for all the metrics like GDP, strongest currency, imports/exports, forex reserves etc? Especially with its ageing population?

Hasn't it been on a downward trajectory? Japan's economic zenith was observed in the '90s and again in 2010, but since then, a persistent decline has ensued. The most recent GDP figure for 2022 stands at 4.2 trillion dollars, a figure unchanged for nearly two decades. Projections for the year 2023 indicate a stagnant GDP, highlighting the ongoing challenges in revitalizing economic growth.



Source - Statista

In Summary - We can draw parallels with how Sony struggled over last 20 years and Samsung became a behemoth. Same way Toyota is a behemoth in today's era of automobiles but if they don't react now, I see Hyundai/Kia and other companies (BYD, Tesla etc.) becoming a behemoth in the EV era of automobiles.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

Today the biggest Japanese brand - Sony is doing $86 billion as revenue (FY 2022) where as biggest Korean brand - Samsung is doing $234 billion that is almost 3 times. To add more prespective, Sony's revenue in 2000 was $63.1 billion and Samsung's revenue in 2000 was $35.5 billion dollars see the difference in growth in the past 22 years

Samsung/Apple etc are indeed great global success stories, but are outliers. I'd like to look at overall trajectory of Japanese high tech industry instead.

Tokyo Stock Exchange (Nikkei 225) is still the 5th largest by marketcap. If Japanese high tech industry was struggling or dying, it would show up in stock valuation because it is a leading indicator (not a lagging indicator like revenues). All the metrics you mentioned (revenues, profits, margins, brand value etc) are incorporated into a stock's value.

Hasn't it been on a downward trajectory? Japan's economic zenith was observed in the '90s and again in 2010

That's because:

1) GDP of Japan went up like Adani stock between 1985 & 1995. It takes time to normalize such insane growth. Had GDP curve from 1984 to 2024 gently curved upwards, you would not have noticed the current stagnation.

2) Corporate well-being shows up in GDP, sure, but more important is financial transactions made by the population. And Japan is rapidly ageing.

In Summary - We can draw parallels with how Sony struggled over last 20 years and Samsung became a behemoth. Same way Toyota is a behemoth in today's era of automobiles but if they don't react now, I see Hyundai/Kia and other companies (BYD, Tesla etc.) becoming a behemoth in the EV era of automobiles.

The first mover has no advantage in consumer space, including automobiles/EVs. Specifically, Toyota/Maruti can introduce EVs when they feel that the market is mature enough. Just like how Maruti was a late entrant into the diesel space, but that did not matter once they introduced the 1.3L MJD

If EV marketshare in India reaches 5% or 10%, all that Maruti has to do is introduce a few models, and people will queue up with their chequebooks at the Nexa showroom.

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

If EV marketshare in India reaches 5% or 10%, all that Maruti has to do is introduce a few models, and people will queue up with their chequebooks at the Nexa showroom

If it was as easy as saying this, Ford, GM, Toyota would have had unprecedented success in the US market. But they are still struggling to get a foot holding against companies like Tesla, BYD and VW. EV market share in US is already at 7.6%

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by ferrarirules

If it was as easy as saying this, Ford, GM, Toyota would have had unprecedented success in the US market. But they are still struggling to get a foot holding against companies like Tesla, BYD and VW. EV market share in US is already at 7.6%

Outlier like Tesla is messing up the stats, making it difficult to analyze the data.

1) Among EVs in USA, Tesla's marketshare usually swings from 50% to 70%. Introduction of CyberTruck will further skew the data.

2) Tesla is American, if we are looking at this from country point of view (just like how we looked at Japan)

3) Ford/GM/Stellantis have 13% marketshare in EVs currently and projected to be 36% over the next few years



Source:
https://electrek.co/2023/06/23/car-w...-market-share/

Now the EV marketshare scene in USA might be wholly different in 2030, with perhaps bigger share for the Japs/Chinese. It is too early right now to write epitaphs. But what doesn't change is the fact that first mover has no advantage. We can also see this when we look at Two-wheeler EV sales here in India (Eg: TVS iQube is a relatively late entrant, but a massive success)

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

. It is too early right now to write epitaphs. But what doesn't change is the fact that first mover has no advantage. We can also see this when we look at Two-wheeler EV sales here in India (Eg: TVS iQube is a relatively late entrant, but a massive success)

Depends on the kind of first mover, if it's a novice with a miniscule sales and service presence plus lacking financial power then correct, but if it's a major then the advantage is massive. Tesla's market lead in the developed economies continues. Ola despite being a half baked product with even worse after sales support outsells the iqube.

The major brands currently are unable to challenge Tesla or the Chinese offerings. Almost all the recent Japanese EV launches have been a disaster, wether that's from Toyota, Honda, Mazda.... somehow when it comes to buying EVs people do not see them as good choices.

[haskelerator]

Originally Posted by AMG Power

The Tucson 2.0 diesel has 40 Nm more torque than a 2L petrol Porsche Macan is as stable at high speeds, handles well, is (obviously) far more fuel efficient costs less than a third of the Macan. It may not have the brand equity though.

Comparing a diesel Hyundai with a Petrol Porsche and the handling is not even in the same galaxy let alone ballpark. Our market will be as good as how discerning we as consumers are. Hope we don’t succumb to sour grapes just because of the pricing. Hyundai sells cars cheap because it cuts corners where we don’t tend to look and can satisfy majority buyers. It’s no enthusiast car though. An i20 n line is no match to a Polo gt, let alone a Tucson to a Porsche.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by shortbread

Depends on the kind of first mover, if it's a novice with a miniscule sales and service presence plus lacking financial power then correct, but if it's a major then the advantage is massive. Tesla's market lead in the developed economies continues

I think this is wrong conclusion being drawn, just because Tesla happens to be a first mover. The reasons for Tesla's marketshare is because:

1) They had a technological advantage over 1st gen EVs
2) They continue to maintain that technological advantage in battery tech, through rapid innovation.
3) Cybertruck innovation is not just in battery space, but also in general automotive space.

Ditto with Apple products. Sure, they were first movers in touchscreen or app store space. But that has no relation with its success. It is successful only because their phones still top the charts when it comes to performance, longevity, camera tech, display tech etc.

Even if backed by massive funding, 1st mover has no advantage in consumer space. Examples:

- Orkut came earlier than Facebook
- Yahoo came earlier than Google
- Maini Reva (now Mahindra) came earlier than Tata EVs

Ola despite being a half baked product with even worse after sales support outsells the iqube.

Again, too early to draw conclusions. Till recently, iQube manufacturing capacity was just 10,000 units per month.
https://www.thehindubusinessline.com...le67116419.ece

[Whiplash7]

In my opinion the Japs still have some time left to bounce back. Sometimes its wise to wait a bit and observe the competition. For e.g. take the iPhone, it does not have any state of the art feature that the Chinese phones come out with. Talk about foldable phones, on screen finger print sensor. They observe and wait until the tech can be refined enough to their standards before including them in their iPhones.

I believe the EV is still an unrefined tech bottle necked by the battery technology available today. For short urban commutes its fine but for anything else an ICE or a hybrid would be my choice. Toyota is also working on its solid state battery technology, the outcome of which might influence their future. Similarly Honda has debuted its new EV 0 series of cars which look fantastic in my opinion. The coming 5 years could be interesting.

[slamnos]

Japanese business model is often misunderstood. They do not believe in making big news or impress the PR world. They are silent giants who do not come under news scanner.

Even with technology they were never the "inventors" of new tech, they always believe in making existing tech more reliable and accessible to the market. That reflects in their automotive too. Their cars / motorcycles don't scream innovation or technology, they just have the right balance of usable tech (even though contemporary tech could help) and fine balance of reliability.

This formula hasn't changed for them in decades and they still rule the business across many functions with the same formula.

[car_aficianado]

I still believe the Japanese brands have gas left in their tanks (pun intended). Even if they are "slow" to catch up with advances in the technology, their ability to adapt, coupled with their reputation for quality, positions them to remain significant players in this industry.

[govindremesh]

Originally Posted by shortbread

People of my vintage, i.e., circa 80s, will remember the pride most Indian households held in owning a piece of original 'Made in Japan' TV or other white goods. A Sony TV, JVC VCR, Panasonic sound system, Hitachi washing machine, etc. It's not just the seniors; even among the younger ones, owning something like a Sony Walkman was what helped define one's coolness quotient. The brands held so much prestige that their stickers could be found anywhere, on top of school notebooks, autorickshaws, cupboards, etc.; they carried so many kudos.

While BHPian Smartcat already provided the stats, I think the premise of the thread comes from what you see/perceive than the reality. Sure, there's some catch up for the Japs to do, but they've not lost the plot - either in Automobiles or electronics. So I wouldn't call the Japanese auto/consumer electronics era dead.

Honda and Toyota do have Turbopetrols available globally and IIRC, Honda even toyed with the idea of a Dual Clutch Gearbox, but let it go because of reliability concerns. The Japanese stand for reliability and while a City/Innova/Elevate might not blow ones socks off with performance, their mechanicals will keep running with a scheduled annual service.

Looking at Consumer electronics - Sony focusses on premium segment and doesn't wish to compete with the likes of LG/Samsung and that's for a Good reason. The last 3 TVs in our house have been Sony's and the CRT TV that we brought in 2004 still works, so does the LED TV that we purchased in 2012. I doubt if a Samsung/LG will go this distance and I'm pretty sure the Chinese ones won't.

Ditto for the airconditioners - the LG split AC we had was eventually sold for near scrap after 12 years of operation - Condenser defective, evaporator rust and what not - the Hitachi of a similar age was still going strong till it was exchanged with another one from the same brand.

The problem is that a lot of consumers have a myopic view or are just not bothered with the engineering specifics, which is made worse by the fast turnover and the tendency to upgrade- Why should one pay a premium for something that if I don't like will be replaced in 2-3 years?
That my friend answers why the Koreans and Chinese dominate. If the crash test results are to go by- it's easy to see why the Koreans come with a bigger engine and features set but undercut on the price.

[shortbread]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

Again, too early to draw conclusions.

I completely agree with you, it's too early to draw conclusions.

May I ask, as much as I agree with you regarding Tesla's technological prowess, don't you think the first mover advantage helped make Tesla a trusted EV brand? I am not trying to be argumentative and will try and explain my perspective.

Here in the UK, there's a lot of chat about EVs among our friends circle whenever the car topic comes up and by default people talk Teslas. It's almost like the 'Bisleri' syndrome. The women say the Tesla looks impressive without an iota of information about it's technical specifications (again I am talking from personal experience here and not trying to sound sexist). My better half also says Tesla, and me mentioning things like the ioniq5 usually gets a 'mmeh' in response.

The folk I know do not even enquire about the new EVs launched by Toyota, Honda etc.... they just do not care. I understand my theory is purely anecdotal and an extremely small sample size. But the feeling I get is that as much as there automotive giants are know car brands, when the question of EVs come up, they get completely overlooked. And my theory is that the first mover advantage helped create Tesla as the primary EV brand globally and its unmatched. I know BYD sells more EVs but if you take China and the electric BYD quadricycles out of the picture, Teslas lead is still massive. This is despite the fact that Teslas regularly face a lot of quality and maintenance issues.