[shortbread]

People of my vintage, i.e., circa 80s, will remember the pride most Indian households held in owning a piece of original 'Made in Japan' TV or other white goods. A Sony TV, JVC VCR, Panasonic sound system, Hitachi washing machine, etc. It's not just the seniors; even among the younger ones, owning something like a Sony Walkman was what helped define one's coolness quotient. The brands held so much prestige that their stickers could be found anywhere, on top of school notebooks, autorickshaws, cupboards, etc.; they carried so many kudos.

The Japanese cornered the electronics market, with American and European brands unable to compete, and the upcoming Korean brands looked down upon. Sony, Panasonic, Sharp, Hitachi, Akai, Yashica, Toshiba, Sanyo, Aiwa, etc.. etc.. household names people swear by.

Fast-forward 3 decades, and I cannot think of a bigger disappearing act in modern economics. Most have disappeared, while the few that remain are bit players in front of the Korean giants or their cheaper chinese ilk. In a digital era, the Japanese were just slow and too stubborn to change.

The automotive business now looks eerily similar from a global perspective. Toyota used to represent quality and value. But their recent EV launch, the Toyota bZ4X is anything but. Initial batches came with many issues, including wheel bolts loosening, limited fast-charging capability, severe loss of range in cold weather etc... etc. What makes it worse is the terrible price. Here in the UK, Toyota's bZ4X is priced noticeably higher than the better-equipped, longer-range Tesla Model 3. Who, in their right mind, will buy one? From the sales figures, it looks like not many at all.

Even worse are the attempts by Honda, Mazda, Mitsubishi, etc. Others, like Subaru, Suzuki are simply non-existent in this space. The only Japanese company with a noticeable EV presence is Nissan. There isn't a single appetising Japanese electric car out there right now that I can think of.

Global electric car sales rose by 31% in 2023. As per mobility forecasts by Euromonitor, 25% of all new passenger car registrations are forecast to be pure electric in 2024, exceeding 17 million units in sales globally.

[AMG Power]

The Tucson 2.0 diesel has 40 Nm more torque than a 2L petrol Porsche Macan is as stable at high speeds, handles well, is (obviously) far more fuel efficient costs less than a third of the Macan. It may not have the brand equity though.

Forget the Japanese, the Koreans are right up there with the best in the world. They’ve won two consecutive WRC championships indicating they can give you the best the world has to offer.

However, they tone it down and produce only what will sell the best even if it means compromising on power, handling and overall robustness as this is a business.

Some time ago folks made jokes about Skodas, now one would be out of touch with reality to do so. This is what is happening with Hyundai.

They will go places. Its time to wake up and smell the coffee.

Hyundai’s Ioniq 5 N with power at 641 bhp and torque at 740 Nm. The N Grin button makes the motor spin at 21000 rpm to give you all that power.

[DIY410]

At least for the EV part of the self flogging, Its due to Japanese government push to hybrids and Hydrogen vehicles fearing massive job losses. Many Japanese OEM make parts for other manufacturers all over the world especially for injectors, gearbox and other machined parts.

Sony for example had one of the best, If not the best NMC and LFP cells out there until 2017. Their NMC batteries 18650/21700 cells where the preferred batteries for Vaping, Flashlights and the most powerfull cordless Vacuum cleaners and power tools.
Their 26650 LFP cells have a cycle life of 8000 cycles and still have 80% capacity left. Many high end battery back up systems have those cells. They made the worlds first commercial 18650 cell.

Yet they sold their battery division to Murata Japan. It would have been helpful if they hadn't, since they are going to make EV in collaboration with Honda.

BYD is the world leader in EV because they make their own battery cells, motor and motor controller.

Panasonic battery are loosing edge to Catl, LG in NMC/NCA.
Other then Tesla not many are interested in Panasonic cells.

[SS-Traveller]

Originally Posted by shortbread

The automotive business now looks eerily similar from a global perspective. Toyota used to represent quality and value. But their recent EV launch, the Toyota bZ4X is anything but. Initial batches came with many issues, including wheel bolts loosening, limited fast-charging capability, severe loss of range in cold weather etc... etc. What makes it worse is the terrible price. Here in the UK, Toyota's bZ4X is priced noticeably higher than the better-equipped, longer-range Tesla Model 3. Who, in their right mind, will buy one? From the sales figures, it looks like not many at all.

This is based on the assumption that ICE vehicles per se would sink into oblivion - which is unlikely in the near future, considering this bit of news (Hertz to sell off 1/3rd of its EV fleet; Will move back to operating ICE-powered vehicles).

[Axe77]

Originally Posted by SS-Traveller

This is based on the assumption that ICE vehicles per se would sink into oblivion - which is unlikely in the near future, considering this bit of news (Hertz to sell off 1/3rd of its EV fleet; Will move back to operating ICE-powered vehicles).

Reading some of the posts on that link as well as the news link itself, it seems more like they’re moving away from Tesla EVs and not EVs per se. The substituted fleet still seem to be EV biased - just not from Tesla.

[AMG Power]

Even heaven seems to agree

[ferrarirules]

Originally Posted by shortbread

Fast-forward 3 decades, and I cannot think of a bigger disappearing act in modern economics. Most have disappeared, while the few that remain are bit players in front of the Korean giants or their cheaper chinese ilk. In a digital era, the Japanese were just slow and too stubborn to change.

Bang on!!! Being an Eighties kid, I have grown up with pelthora of Japanese products in our households. We have owned Aiwa TV and 3 CD changer music system, Sony walkman, Sony or Panasonic point and shoot cameras and much more. Even our car, a Honda City, reflected our trust in Japanese craftsmanship. But all of that changed in the 2000s with Korean manufacturers slowly ruling the roost in every space - Be it consumer electronics or cars.

However, it's disheartening to observe a lack of adaptability in the Japanese automobile industry. Their struggle to embrace change and convince the world of the superiority of their vision is perplexing.

The rise is starkly evident in the data. While Hyundai/Kia, relatively new players in the US car market, collectively sold 1.77 million vehicles in US in 2023, Toyota sold 2.25 million, and Honda sold 1.3 million. Market shares stand at Hyundai+Kia - 11.4%, Toyota 14.4%, and Honda - 8.4%.

As we step into the era of electric vehicles (EVs), each automobile hub has reacted differently:

1. Chinese Manufacturers: Realizing their limitations in the internal combustion engine (ICE) space, they wisely channeled their energy into uncontested segments. The success of BYD and MG (SIAC) worldwide attests to their strategic move.
2. Korean Manufacturers: Acknowledging the shift in the tide, they diversified their portfolio to include hybrids, plug-in hybrids, and ground-up EVs, a strategy reflected in their rising sales numbers.
3. European Manufacturers (Especially Germans): Working tirelessly to catch up in the EV space, they are making significant strides in adapting to the changing landscape.
4. American Manufacturers: Shaken by the ambitions of one man, they are struggling to recover from the shock and make meaningful progress in the EV sector.
5. Indian Manufacturers: Tata and Mahindra (excluding Maruti/Suzuki due to their close association with Toyota), have embraced the electric vehicles. Recognizing the compelling R&D benefits, they have opted for a direct transition from internal combustion engines (ICE) to electric vehicles (EVs), bypassing the intermediary stage of hybrid technology.
6. Japanese Manufacturers: Unfortunately, they seem stuck on the hybrid, hydrogen fuel cell EVs, and solid-state batteries narrative, with little to show for it on the ground.

Data Source - link

[GTO]

The Japanese are definitely falling behind the tech curve. In the 2010s, they fell behind the Europeans who got direct-injection petrols, dual-clutch ATs etc. Now, in the 2020s, they are falling behind everyone (including the Chinese) in Electric Vehicles.

Not only are they selling the same old technology from the 90s (Maruti's 4-speed AT, Honda's iVtec, Toyota's diesels), but they have also made the wrong bets. E.g. hydrogen cars when customers moved onto EVs. Forget anyone else, even Hyundai-Kia have overtaken Japan in terms of quality & technology (go drive a Seltos & Elevate back-to-back or the Verna & City back-to-back).

And just to be sure, there is only 1 big Japanese car manufacturer = Toyota. Honda is now a midsize player at the global level (far behind Hyundai-Kia and just ahead of Suzuki or BYD). Other than Toyota & Honda, there really is no powerful Japanese car manufacturer worth talking about.

So yes, I partially agree with the premise of this thread. Toyota & Honda will eventually catch up; I don't think they'll be annihilated like the Japanese electronics industry, but the future is going to be very challenging, especially for Honda which doesn't have Toyota's sheer muscle. Toyota has the capability to buy its way into the future and / or make risky bets.

[DarthVeda]

Originally Posted by AMG Power

Even heaven seems to agree

Exactly going for a hybrid is a big sin, he should have gone for an EV

[Shreyans_Jain]

Originally Posted by GTO

So yes, I partially agree with the premise of this thread. Toyota & Honda will eventually catch up; I don't think they'll be annihilated like the Japanese electronics industry, but the future is going to be very challenging, especially for Honda which doesn't have Toyota's sheer muscle. Toyota has the capability to buy its way into the future and / or make risky bets.

The problem with Japanese industry in general, not just their car industry, is that all major companies have stakes in each other. A owns part of B. B has a stake in C, C in D, D in A. In a sense, it’s like a large cartel with each member holding the other’s hand. And all of them enjoy lavish support from the Japanese government. That’s why they are all always on the same trajectory. Risks get spread out and minimised, but doing something new or different becomes that much tougher. Only Nissan was able to do things differently, that too because of an eccentric genius called Carlos Ghosn and the company being a part of a Euro conglomerate. Now that Nissan is Japanese again, the innovation seems to have disappeared.

[CarNerd]

The story of Japan is similar to the story of the tortoise and the hare. Japan was far ahead of everyone that it thought about giving a rest to innovation! This story had two tortoises not one - Korea and China who finally won the race. Miyazawa Kazumasa, the engineer behind Sony Vaio computer series talks about why Japan stopped innovating: https://www.nippon.com/en/japan-topics/g02166/

[SmartCat]

When it comes to the electronics, the Japanese have just moved on to more high tech products. It no longer makes sense for them to sell relatively low tech electronics gadgets like laptops or smartphones.

Here are the revenues of famous Japanese electronics companies in CY2021:

Sony Corp: $81 billion
Panasonic Corp: $71 billion
Toshiba Corp: $29 billion
Sharp Corp: $23 billion
Hitachi Corp: $79 billion
Fujitsu Corp: $35 billion

So they are doing quite well for themselves. That's because important components for modern electronics still come from Japan. You can also get an idea by looking at Japan's export numbers to China/Korea. They usually have a trade deficit with Japan (that is, China/Korea imports from Japan is higher than its exports).

[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

When it comes to the electronics, the Japanese have just moved on to more high tech products. It no longer makes sense for them to make relatively low tech electronics gadgets.

Here are the revenues of famous Japanese electronics companies in CY2021:

Sony Corp: $81 billion
Panasonic Corp: $71 billion
Toshiba Corp: $29 billion
Sharp Corp: $23 billion
Hitachi Corp: $79 billion
Fujitsu Corp: $35 billion

So they are doing quite well for themselves. That's because important components for modern electronics still come from Japan.

Sony revenues are from, gaming, music, and movies. For consumer electronics, its game over. Let's put these numbers in context. Apple - 385B, Samsung -220B, LG -63B, are also consumer electronics companies.

Instead of revenues, I would look at market cap for a read on how these companies are doing. Investors take a much deeper, holistic look at companies. I am not sure what areas of high tech the japs are leading in, but the Chinese companies, Faang and some semiconductor companies have gone too far for the Japs to catchup.

[SmartCat]

Originally Posted by GutsyGibbon

Sony revenues are from, gaming, music, and movies.

This comes under Sony Entertainment. Sony Corp is still tech focussed company.

I am not sure what areas of high tech the japs are leading in, but the Chinese companies, Faang and some semiconductor companies have gone too far for the Japs to catchup. For consumer electronics, its game over.

There is no "catching up" for Japanese companies to do. They are no longer competiting with Chinese/Koreans - instead they are supply high-tech components to them. Eg: Sony camera sensors

Sony announces its new sensor for flagship smartphones
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/a.../105906566.cms

Let's put these numbers in context. Apple - 385B, Samsung -220B, LG -63B, are also consumer electronics companies. Instead of revenues, I would look at market cap for a read on how these companies are doing. Investors take a much deeper, holistic look at companies.

Agreed. Consumer electronics brands will almost always have a higher marketcap. But then, it is considered a high risk, high reward business

[GutsyGibbon]

Originally Posted by SmartCat

There is no "catching up" for Japanese companies to do. They are no longer competiting with Chinese/Koreans - instead they are supply high-tech components to them. Eg: Sony camera sensors

Sure, one of the camera sensors on iPhone is Sony. Lets look at the iPhone teardown. Sony sensor is possibly less than $10 in the BOM. The most expensive parts are the OLED display, the A16 chip, wireless chips, and Memory. All non Japs. ASML is not even selling Japs any foundry equipment for the latest chips. Its the US companies, Koreans, & Taiwanese.

Coming to other high tech things, Nvidia is selling its AI chips for $50,000 each. Their order books are full - millions for the next two years. Its the same for other chips announced by companies like AMD. AFAIK, Japs are not even competing in this space.