[pqr]

2023-24 Study : Electric Vehicle Benefits are Limited in India Due to Energy Mix

Governments across the world have set agendas to promote EVs as a cleaner alternative. In line with that, the government in India has also come up with several policy initiatives to achieve two major objectives that can be summarized as below.

• Primary: Environment sustainability, i.e., reduction in air pollution and lowering greenhouse gas emissions for a cleaner environment
• Secondary: Energy independence, i.e., cutback on imported crude oil to avoid outlay of foreign exchange

The government in China has taken this a step further and added a tertiary agenda of economic growth engine to promote and develop a new sunrise sector of battery and electric cars, not only for the domestic market but also to become a significant exporter.

Action: 2019 GST reduction



To meet these objectives, the government took a major step in 2019 and lowered the GST rate in India on all electric vehicles.



Due to this reduction in GST, the government has effectively forgone 23% GST on each sub-4 m EV and 40% GST on EVs bigger than 4 m in length to achieve the above-listed objectives.

Can this GST reduction be regarded as a subsidy?



As per the government, such a tax-based incentive may be regarded as an indirect subsidy.

2023-24 EV Sales



In 2023-24, roughly 104,058 battery-electric passenger vehicles (BEV) were sold in India. Of those, 3,110 were from the luxury segment and the rest, 1,00,948 from mass-market brands. Effectively, BEV penetration in FY 2023-24 was 2.4% in the mass market segment and 6.7% in the luxury segment. Thus, luxury BEVs account for only 3% of total BEV sales in India.

This study will now focus on how far the defined objectives for BEV were met in 2023-24. To that end, this study has been separated into three chapters, as shown below.

Chapter 1: Environment Sustainability

Chapter 2: Energy Independence

Chapter 3: Economic growth

[pqr]

Chapter 1: Environment Sustainability

Cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE) burn carbon-based liquid or gaseous fuels like petrol, diesel or CNG. Burning these fuels emits gases like carbon dioxide (CO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen-based oxide (NOx), and particulate matter (PM). Different gases have different kinds of effects on human life and the environment.



Some of those harmful emissions like CO, HC, NOx, and PM are limited by government regulation in India under Bharat Stage Emission Compliance Standards.



The latest one is called BS6, that came into effect on 1st of April 2020, and limits imposed on gases are summarized above.



CAFE is yet another tool deployed by the government to control CO₂ emissions of ICE vehicles.

Electric cars don't emit gases, so the public in general perceives that they don't pollute the environment. But then, in India, electric cars get their energy drawn from grid electricity and on-board batteries store it in chemical form. Indian grid electricity is generated from several sources, and the largest among them is a coal-fired thermal power plant (51%). And therefore, grid electricity has emissions. Because coal-based thermal power plants also emit similar kinds of gases into the atmosphere by burning solid fuel and emitting pollutants above the Indian subcontinent in bulk, similar to what an internal combustion engine (ICE) does on a discrete scale, wherever used across the Indian subcontinent.

So anything that draws electricity from the grid will have an emission footprint over the Indian Subcontinent, whether it’s an electric car or any household appliance. That’s why several appliances do come with energy efficiency ratings in India.

CO₂ emission

First, we will consider CO₂ in this study. Now, CO₂, from gas per se, is not harmful because what we exhale, as humans, is also CO2. That CO₂ is used by vegetation on planet to convert it back into oxygen by process of photosynthesis, and the cycle continues.

But then CO₂ is a greenhouse gas. What it means is that it has the ability to trap heat. And if we emit more CO₂ in the environment than what can be converted back into O₂, it will make the earth's atmosphere trap more heat from the sun and make the earth's atmosphere warm.

This leads to an increase in broad-based atmospheric temperature that has multiple consequences. Such as melting of the polar ice cap, change in sea level, submergence of coastal land, erratic change in climate, uncertain rainfall, floods, etc. And all this is mostly termed climate change, a threat to the life of entire mankind on earth. Thus, governments all over the world and people have collective responsibility to reduce CO₂ emissions as far as possible.

Indian power grid CO₂ emission



Indian grid electricity has massive CO₂ footprint. This is quantified by the Central Electricity Authority in every financial year (FY) and can be found in this interesting report. As per the report, 51% of electricity is generated from coal-fired thermal power plants based on installed capacity, in addition to several other sources, including renewable energy.

Average CO₂ emission for 2023–24 can be considered as 0.716 t CO₂ per MWh. However, at nigh time there won’t be any solar power contribution to grid electricity; overall CO₂ output will be much higher—up to 0.970 t/MWh. This is crucial because several EV users charge their cars at night.

This data can be effectively used to deduce the CO₂ emission footprint for BEVs in India. Crux is what is emitted over the Indian subcontinent will collectively impact climate change.

Indian BEV CO₂ emission calculation methodology



The first step is to convert higher (t/MWh) units to lower units (g/kWh) for practical usage, as electric car batteries have a kWh rating and CO₂ for ICE cars is expressed as g/Km, and hence an apples-to-apples comparison can be quickly drawn.



The next step is to calculate the CO₂ emission figure for an electric car. Here for illustration, the Tata Nexon EV facelift Long Range version is considered.

MIDC Part I (Modified Indian Driving Cycle) claimed range for Nexon is 465 km, and it has a 40.5 kWh capacity battery pack. Based on calculation, CO₂ output over the Indian subcontinent when charged from grid electricity would be 62 g/km, provided Nexon delivers 465 km of claimed range in full charge. If range drops in real-world conditions, actual CO₂ emissions will also go up.

Published EV range : Understanding MIDC vs. WLTC difference

Before we move to CO2 figures of all products sold in 2023–24, it is important to understand the different EV ranges published by respective brands. Here WLTC stands for Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Cycle.



Cars with an internal combustion engine (ICE) have to undergo emission testing for roadworthiness certification. These tests are carried out in the laboratory (ARAI or ICAT) on dynamometers, where the vehicle's body remains in stationary condition. Vehicles have to cover the modified Indian driving cycle, and equipment measures the tailpipe emissions.



The fuel consumption values are calculated from the hydrocarbon, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide emission measurements taken in accordance with the provisions of AIS 137 Part-2, clause 6 of Chapter 2, in force at the time of the approval of the vehicle.

Fuel consumption figures derived based on standard formulas during this cycle are reported as fuel efficiency by manufacturers; these figures are byproducts of emission testing procedures.

It is important to note that during MIDC drive, all auxiliary power systems are switched off, i.e., no AC, no headlamp that consumes additional energy. And the average speed is limited to 32.9 kmph. These conditions are now part of standard testing; however, they vary drastically from real-world operating conditions. Which is why, in real-world conditions, vehicles either don’t meet these figures or sometimes exceed them too.

When it comes to BEVs, as they don’t have a tailpipe, they don’t have to undergo emission testing. However, they are also subjected to MIDC drive, and the driving range obtained during the test is reported by manufacturers.

In India, for some EVs, there are two different types of drive range published by brands. The cars that are homologated locally bear MIDC range. Cars that are either imported as CBU or CKD assembled locally under GSR 870 having European compliance bear the WLTC range, that doesn’t need homologation in India if it carries a certificate from Europe, and annual units are limited to 2,500 units per financial year for a legal entity.



For illustration : Tata Nexon EV on left has MIDC Part I range published in its brochure. On the right, Mercedes EQS has both WLTC and MIDC data, as Mercedes chose to get the EQS 580 4MATIC homologated in India at the ARAI test center. The gap between MIDC and WLTC figures in the case of EQS is as high as 46%. Below is an explanation of such a high gap.



Indian emission standards are purely based on European standards, with a latency in implementation date. That also shows India lacks R&D culture and simply copies European standards without much investment.

But a major difference is in the testing cycle. WLTC became mandatory from 1 September 2018 for measuring CO2 emissions and fuel economy on all new cars in the EU region. India, despite adopting Euro 6 emission standards, is still following the old Modified EUDC testing cycle and only has plans to switch to WLTC by 2027.

Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure

The New European Drive Cycle (NEDC) has certain limitations as the driving pattern has evolved in several regions. So a new procedure, Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedures (WLTP), has been formalized by UNECE. The WLTP is a global harmonized standard for determining the levels of pollutants, CO2 emissions, and fuel consumption of traditional and hybrid cars and the range of fully electric vehicles.



Major differences in the cycles are demonstrated in the above graph.

This is why a gap exists for products tested on the European WLTP cycle and simultaneously tested in India under MIDC. Here, WLTP is more realistic and close to real-world driving conditions as compared to MIDC.

Since MIDC is not close to realistic real-world driving conditions, the real range of current BEV products is even lower than manufacturers' reported data by 20% to 40% in real-world conditions.



Gap due to testing procedure is summarized above in terms of grid CO₂.

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2023-24 Product-wise grid-based CO₂ emission over the Indian Subcontinent

The below table summarizes the weighted grid-level CO₂ emission of each carline factoring in a mix of different variants sold in FY 2023-24. Also included are estimated GST forgone by the government to incentivize sales of these EVs in India.

• Luxury BEVs with bigger battery packs and performance-oriented motors have a higher CO2 footprint
• Slippery Mercedes EQE SUV & EQS have relatively lower CO₂ footprints compared to BMW, Audi & Porsche
• SUV-styled crossovers have a higher CO₂ footprint as they have higher coefficient of drag (Cd) values due to their upright stance
• At ₹ 74 lakhs, the BMW i7 consumed the highest GST incentive per car sales
• Tata Nexon EV consumed the highest estimated GST incentive of ₹ 760 crore in 2023-24

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2023-24 Brand-wise grid-based CO2 emission over the Indian Subcontinent

The below table summarizes the weighted grid-level CO₂ emission of each brand, factoring in the mix of different product lines sold in FY 2023-24. Also included are estimated GST forgone by the government to incentivize sales of these EVs in India.

• CO₂ emissions of all EVs put together were 65 g/km, which is significantly lower than CAFÉ II reference of 113 g/km
• Luxury brands in India have a higher CO₂ footprint due to the WLTC test cycle and performance oriented motor
• Sales of luxury cars are mere 3%; however, they consume the bulk of the GST concession benefit (23%) as there is no cap on value
• The CO₂ footprint of luxury cars is twice that of mass market products

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Real-world range of EVs and CO₂

Still, we are halfway through the CO₂ study. Values calculated above are based on claimed ranges by respective manufacturers based on MIDC or WLTC cycle runs.



In real-world conditions, the actual range of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) often shows significant reductions compared to the claimed figures. For instance, data published by Autocar India from real-world tests indicated that the Nexon EV’s range was 41% lower than the claimed figure in the spring season, while the MG ZS EV’s range was 26% lower than the claimed figure in the summer.



The graph above is based on extrapolated data that shows how a decrease in range leads to a larger grid CO₂ emission. Nexon EV's operational range increases to 100-125 g/km, greatly above the theoretical value of 62 g/km. During the peak summer season, it may worsen more.

Despite having a more powerful motor and a larger size, the MG appears to be more efficient and has a similar CO₂ operating range. The point is that MIDC test cycle statistics may look excellent on paper, but not in practice.

What about hybrid electric vehicles or strong hybrids?



Tata has long been opposing any sort of concession on hybrid cars as they have invested in EV technology and don’t have any competence in hybrid drivetrain as of now in India, though their subsidiary JLR has been selling PHEV across the globe.

Now at this stage a comparison can be drawn on emissions, as both technologies have direct or indirect CO₂ emissions over the Indian subcontinent.



At 27.97 km/l claimed fuel efficiency, Toyota Hyryder’s HEV CO₂ output would be 84.8 g/km. Hyryder is a bigger car here, but the CO₂ operating range of the Nexon EV and Hyryder HEV in real-world conditions remains largely in the same ballpark of 100-125 g/km, even if Hyryder’s real-world efficiency drops to 20 kmpl.

In terms of grid-based CO₂ output, the Tata Nexon EV is equally bad as Toyota’s strong hybrid. Data here is quite an eye opener, as neither Tata nor Toyota have ever substantiated their claim of protecting the environment in terms of CO₂ in the Indian public domain.

The Role of 12V and 48V Mild-Hybrids: Are they really worth it?

Mild hybrid technology is often seen as less impactful than full hybrids or plug-in hybrids. Which is true. However, their measurable contributions to lowering emissions, particularly when compared to earlier, non-hybridized versions of the same models, are significant. The Mercedes-Benz GLC’s and Maruti Brezza’s evolution in emissions data is an interesting case study in how each regulatory and technology shift (from BS4 to BS6 to BS6 RDE) influences CO₂ output.




BS4 emission phase:
The GLC's original 2.1L diesel and 2.0L petrol engines had among the highest CO₂ emissions in the BS4 emission compliance phase. As norms were less stringent and engines were prioritized for power and performance without substantial emissions-focused technology, leading to a larger CO₂ footprint.

BS6 emission phase:
For BS6 compliance, Mercedes introduced Euro 6d compliant engines in India with improved combustion efficiency and several exhaust gas after treatment technology in late 2019. Mercedes in fact replaced the old 2.1L diesel with a new and more powerful 2.0L diesel engine. Detuned 2.0L petrol engine was brought to India with lower power and was devoid of an AWD system. These modifications resulted in significant emissions reductions, with the diesel engine alone cutting CO₂ emissions by 29%.

BS6 RDE emission phase:
The 2nd generation of GLC was launched with the same engine block, but this time they had electric assist, and the petrol engine was available in a higher state of power tune. GLC’s both engine options got 900 Wh Li-ion battery based on 48V architecture, which provides additional power assist through the ISG (integrated-starter-generator) system. The CO₂ level now came down by 9% for diesel because of the 48V hybrid system. And for petrol, CO₂ reduction is 30% from BS4 level, despite the engine being more powerful than what was offered during the BS4 phase.

Maruti Brezza : Mild hybrids based on 12V electric architecture case study



BS4 emission phase:
During the BS4 emission compliance phase, Brezza used to come with a Fiat-sourced 1.25L diesel engine with a CO₂ emission level of 109 g/km. Diesel engines are inherently low on CO₂ emissions due to the lean burning of fuel under high pressure.

BS6 emission phase:
Maruti replaced the diesel with a 1.5L naturally aspirated petrol engine and introduced a 12V ISG-based mild-hybrid system on the 4AT variants, featuring a 12V-36Wh Li-ion battery from Denso, Japan. CO₂ emission difference between 5MT and 4AT was 13 g/Km, or 9% due to Maruti’s mild hybrid system.

BS6 2nd generation Brezza:
With the new generation Brezza, Maruti has doubled battery capacity to 72Wh and was assembled in Gujarat at Toshiba-Denso-Suzuki’s JV unit. The CO2 gap between variants equipped with mild-hybrid technology is as high as 14%. Further, Maruti introduced the CNG version without mild hybrid, and the CO2 level is 107 g/km, slightly lower than the BS4 diesel version.

Conclusion
The 48V and 12V-based mild hybrid systems definitely play an effective role in improving efficiency and reducing CO₂ emissions in real-world conditions. Though reduction percentages remain modest compared to more aggressive cuts seen in plug-in or full hybrids. Still, mild hybrid technology is practical and cost effective in reducing emissions by harnessing energy from regenerative braking and electric boost, particularly when the reference point is conventional ICE engines.

In fact, diesel emissions have come down drastically in the BS6 emission compliance phase, and data shows it is not as bad as it is portrayed, especially for climate change targets, as it has lower CO₂ emissions compared to other fuels.

Does the Indian tax system effectively address environmental concerns?



This graphical analysis highlights the fallacy in the current GST vehicle tax structure, where tax slabs are based on engine capacity rather than actual emissions. The comparison between Tata and Maruti shows that Maruti Brezza’s 1.5L naturally aspirated petrol engine with 72Wh-12V Li-ion battery-based mild-hybrid technology has lower CO₂ emissions than Tata Nexon’s smaller 1.2L turbocharged petrol engine. Yet, due to its larger engine size, Maruti’s engine is significantly penalized with a higher GST rate (45%) compared to Tata's (29%).

In fact, CNG Maruti Brezza is low on CO₂, without even mild hybrid technology, and is still penalized with a higher GST rate.

The point is that engine size criteria is an absurd parameter to check a polluting vehicle. If pollution control is a major objective, then the parameter has to be the emission figure and not engine size. Emission figures based taxation system will push manufacturers to adopt cleaner technology to achieve meaningful emission reduction, regardless of engine size.

Is CNG a better option for environmental causes?



Maruti’s CNG portfolio has substantially lower CO₂ emissions compared to conventional petrol engines. Thus serving an effective alternative environment-friendly option. Strong-hybrid technology based Grand Vitara and large MPVs like Invicto have even lower CO₂ impacts.



Moreover, when it comes to CNG as a fuel, Maruti leads in achieving lower CO₂ emissions than Tata and Hyundai. Better efficiency is a technological competence, where Tata’s offerings even fall short in the EV world.

NOx & SOx

NOx emission data is published by every manufacturer in Form 22; however, that data set is not publicly available for every car for this research purpose. Also, the government does not publish NOx and SOx reports for the power grid, though the Pollution Control Board in every state in India regularly monitors such data.



However, the satellite pictures above clearly show how coal-fired thermal power plants in India have a grave impact on the environment with NOx and SOx emissions. And BEVs charged with grid electricity simply exacerbate that effect.

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Chapter 1: Primary Objective: Environment Sustainability i.e., reduction in air pollution and lowering greenhouse gas emissions

Chapter 1: Key Findings

BEV emissions due to grid electricity :
BEVs in India currently rely heavily on coal-powered grid electricity. Resulting in a mere shift of emissions to the power generation stations, thus still having significant environmental impact.

Global Warming Impact:
Since Indian power grids are coal-dependent, BEVs indirectly contribute to global warming, undercutting their potential environmental benefits.

Real-World Efficiency Matters:
While theoretical emission figures are relatively lower than ICEs, this, however, depends on achieving promised driving ranges. BEVs with lower real-world range, such as those by Tata, have a disproportionately higher environmental impact compared to more efficient models like MG's. ‘Kitna deti hai’ needs to be taken more seriously in the EV era by carmakers, especially for Tata Motors.

NOx and SOx Emissions:
Coal-fired power plants have a high level of NOx and SOx content due to solid fuel burning and have a grave impact on air quality.

Charging timing matters:
BEVs charged at night from grid electricity, when solar power is unavailable, result in about 35% higher emissions due to the increased reliance on coal power during these hours.

Hybrid and Alternative ICEs:
Mild, strong hybrids, as well as CNG and diesel engines, under new BS6 emission standards and with advancements in emission control technology, produce lower CO₂ emissions than before. Thus, they cannot be undermined in India’s transition phase. After all, end customers need affordable vehicles that are financially viable and self-sustainable without GST support, unlike current EVs.

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Chapter 1: Recommendations

Government should prioritize renewable energy:
India should first focus on expanding wind and solar energy generation further to make BEVs genuinely cleaner by reducing the grid’s reliance on coal.





BEV Efficiency Standards & Certification:
The government should introduce efficiency standards and certification for BEVs, similar to household appliances, to ensure carmakers improve range efficiency—especially relevant for manufacturers like Tata Motors.

Adopt Realistic Testing Standards:
Replace the MIDC-RDE testing cycle with a new WLTC standard that reflects typical real-world driving conditions, providing a more accurate measure of BEV efficiency. Moreover, focus should be more on R&D activities and initiatives similar to EU, rather than copying their standards.

Differential Taxation for Luxury EVs:
Luxury EVs should be taxed at a higher rate (28%) due to their higher energy demand and emissions impact on the grid, as their technology is unlikely to cascade effectively to mass-market models. Moreover, battery chemistry used is totally different in mass market (LFP) and luxury products (NMC), and electric motor technology is very generic now.

Emission-Based Tax System:
Shift the tax system to focus on emissions output (CO₂, NOx, CO) rather than engine size, making it technology-agnostic and directly linked to environmental impact.

Long-Term Transition Plan for ICEs:
A gradual and realistic transition plan is the need of the hour that supports cleaner fuel use and improved efficiency, rather than an abrupt push towards BEVs.

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"Due to India’s current energy mix, the benefits of EVs are limited, unlike countries that have lower grid emissions like France."

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[pqr]

Chapter 2: Energy independence

Crude oil substitution



India’s demand for crude oil has been growing over the years with economic growth. Since India doesn’t have enough natural crude oil reserves, India remained a net importer of crude oil, as can be seen in the graph above.



In value terms, data kept fluctuating with global oil prices and exchange rate change.



The impact of crude oil imports is directly reflected on India’s balance of payment, which is highly negative when only goods trade is considered. Current account balance still remains manageable since India is a big exporter of IT and ITES services to the west and also the highest recipient of remittance income in the world.

Going forward, if ICE vehicles get replaced with BEV, India’s import bill will naturally come down. And this is critical—both from an energy independence perspective and foreign exchange outflow.

However, BEV poses another challenge.



For illustration, if we remove the GST part from the car price of Tata Nexon’s ICE and BEV products, having similar features and equipment levels, the price gap is nearly ~30%. This gap is due to battery and electric motor costs.

Now, Tata Nexon EV teardown analysis shows that the electric motor of the pre-facelift version came from a Chinese firm, Shanghai Auto Edrive Co. Ltd., and the cell from another Chinese firm called Gotion (IFR32135).

Battery packaging was done by Tata’s subsidiary, TACO, and thus it carries a made in India tag on top of the battery.

Facelift version gets the same battery pack; however, motor is procured from TACO Prestolite Electric Private Limited, again a Chinese supplier. In both cases, the Chinese supplier became the major beneficiary for every BEV sold by Tata Motors in 2023–24.

Battery price differential paid in car price at the time of purchase goes straight to China in bulk at the beginning rather than being spread over lifetime for fuel as in the case of ICE.

Without in-country cell production, India is heavily dependent on Chinese and Korean suppliers. For this, India has put the ACC (Advanced-Chemistry-Cell) PLI (Production-linked-incentive) scheme in place for local manufacturing of cells. But since India doesn’t have lithium reserves, India will become dependent on other countries, as countries like China have a deeply entrenched, vertically integrated and scalable supply chain system in place that is globally very cost-effective.



To illustrate the concern, India’s import of lithium-ion has gone up substantially in the past and reached US $2.9 billion in 2023-24, when BEV penetration is at early stage of 2.4%.



This accounts for 0.43% of India’s total imports from the rest of the world.




The bigger concern is that over 80% of imports come from China, making China the biggest beneficiary of India’s EV market development in 2023–24.

Moreover, there was yet another loophole that has gone largely unnoticed. The government in 2023-24 has ended up incentivizing a lot of imported high-end BEVs.

The below table summarizes the distribution of sales of BEVs by country of origin, along with the GST incentive in 2023-24.

• Nearly 26% of the incentive was consumed by vehicles that were fully imported into India
• German luxury car maker and BYD from China are the biggest beneficiaries without investing much in India
• Cars assembled in India have negligible value addition in terms of local parts sourcing
• Made in India Cars have imported cells from China or South Korea, leading to forex outflow

With 2.4% EV penetration, the government has already forgone an estimated ₹ 5,223 Crore GST collection in 2023-24. As sales of EVs grow, the government will lose more GST collection.



But GST-based incentive systems pose another conundrum. Because without a GST incentive, EVs will not be financially feasible for customers, and a huge GST incentive is not sustainable in the medium to long term.

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Chapter 2 Secondary Objective: Energy Independence i.e., Cutback on imported crude oil to avoid outlay of foreign exchange

Chapter 2 : Findings

• Crude oil imports are being replaced by lithium-ion imports, primarily from China
• As BEV penetration grows, foreign exchange outflow due to lithium imports may increase
• GST incentives benefit luxury and imported BEVs, reducing government tax revenues

Chapter 2 : Recommendations

• Cap maximum GST incentives on BEVs in value terms
• Apply a higher GST rate (28%) on luxury and imported BEVs
• Base GST incentives on local value addition to encourage domestic manufacturing

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[pqr]

Chapter 3: Economic growth

In 2023-24, nearly 14% of passenger vehicles produced in India were exported. 98% of exports were from foreign brands having production plants in India, and the rest 2% came from Indian brands - Mahindra, Tata Motors, and Force Motor.

2023-24 EV Exports



Tertiary objective: To promote and develop a new sunrise sector (batteries and electric cars).

India’s EV export is in a very nascent stage, and mere 0.6% of total vehicle exports in 2023-24 were EV. The global EV market is big on opportunity, provided brands in India remain competitive in a new era where Chinese are becoming formidable players. China, with its deep-rooted EV supply chain, and state assistance, could become a big threat to Indian EV exports in the future.

Note :
The author has very limited resources for conducting this type of research and analysis. However, the government has a substantial amount of data and access to several well-funded think tanks, which are well-resourced to generate great insights. Leveraging such resources can support the development of a more informed, pragmatic and thoughtful policy framework.

[Aditya]

Thread moved out from the Assembly Line. Thanks for sharing!

[niranjanprabhu]

I would sincerely appeal to all in this thread to please watch this brilliant video that explains the deeper aspects of the energy mix conundrum.

https://youtu.be/1oVrIHcdxjA?si=QU0y5x8yzOfDJXfK

[Ambi]

Wonderful analysis PQR ; Enjoyed reading every bit ! Request : It would be great if you can provide a view of cost of import of lithium-ion vs cost of import of crude oil when viewed through a lens of mileage. Are there any organizations working on MII for batteries ? I would go buy off their shares in my limited capacity

[shyampsunder]

A pretty good job at trying to look at the underlying data to come up with a cost benefit analysis but unfortunately seems a bit biased against EVs. Here's why:

1. Fuel doesn't magically reach the petrol stations

The analysis is correct in stating that while EVs don't have any direct emissions but the grid has it's carbon footprint, it fails to apply the same lens to ICE where only the direct emissions are considered. Let's look at what existing research tells us about lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions for both ICE and EVs are.

As per ICCT research: "Results show that even for cars registered today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have by far the lowest life-cycle GHG emissions. As illustrated in the figure below, emissions over the lifetime of average medium-size BEVs registered today are already lower than comparable gasoline cars by 66%–69% in Europe, 60%–68% in the United States, 37%–45% in China, and 19%–34% in India. Additionally, as the electricity mix continues to decarbonize, the life-cycle emissions gap between BEVs and gasoline vehicles increases substantially when considering medium-size cars projected to be registered in 2030."

Now let's look at specifically the Toyota Hyryder example and estimate it's true emissions only from CO2 perspective:

As per ICCT, indirect emissions due to energy intensive refining add 20% to 30% on top of the direct emissions. Now comes the kicker, just like how the composition of the grid matters for EV emissions, it matters for ICE emissions too because refining extensively uses electricity and typically these refineries have captive fossil fuel based generators to produce this energy. So the energy mix will be much dirtier in a country like India. Since we don't have direct data on the above, let's be conservative and assume overall impact is 40%, reality should be much worse.

Toyota Hyryder's base direct emissions at manufacturer stated mileage: 84.8g/KM

Correcting for real world mileage at 20 KM/l: 114g/KM

Correcting for indirect emissions at 40% of direct emissions: 160g/KM

Therefore the strong hybrid emits 42% more CO2 per KM than an EV after accounting for lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.

2. GST reduction is not equal to subsidy or loss of govt revenue

For GST reduction to equal to lost revenue for the govt, the assumption is that a buyer would have bought an EV even if there was no GST reduction which is laughable. Let's take a real world example:

I purchased the MG ZS EV in 2022 with an ex-showroom price of ~26L. The ex-factory price of this car would be 24.7L. Without GST reductions, this vehicle would've been charged GST at the full 50%. Therefore the price of the car would be Rs 37 lakhs. How many of us believe that every single buyer of the MG ZS EV would've purchased the car if there was a price hike of Rs 11 lakhs? In reality less than 5% of the ZS EV's buyers would've bought the car by paying the full GST.

The math gets lopsided as we go into higher price ranges like the BMW i7.

3. Incremental sources of power generation matters

Coal is a significant part of India's grid. Does this change if an individual buys or doesn't buy an EV? What changes is India's grid demand.

If an EV is purchased, it adds to India's incremental power demand. So what we should be paying attention to is how is this incremental power demand met by the grid.

"In 2022, about 92% of India's new power generation capacity additions came from renewable sources, primarily solar and wind. According to analyses from Ember and CEEW, India added around 17 GW in total generation capacity, with solar and wind comprising approximately 15.7 GW of this growth. Coal additions were minimal, accounting for only about 5% of new capacity, reflecting a significant shift in energy investments toward renewable sources and a reduction in reliance on coal for new energy projects." - link

While of course generation capacity is not equal to production because the production factor is much lower for renewables, it is clear that the majority of net new demand was actually met by renewables and it's not relevant to look at the existing grid's composition.

There are many other aspects to this discussion especially around health. ICE vehicles especially diesel vehicles pollute particulate matter in cities with high population density which has been confirmed as a group 1 carcinogen. Thousands of lung cancer cases are attributed to this.

Electrification is a step change towards a more prosperous and greener future and I appreciate everyone who is pushing for it.

[gopa99]

Amazing and well researched thread. To me the eye opener was the calculation on how the Nexon EVs CO2 emission performance was a tad higher than the full hybrid like the Hyrider I wonder if the author also has a cradle to well analysis as well considering the added CO2 impacts during the end of life for a EV. Added to this the effects of fluorine contamination from the electrolyte to the environment is still in its nascent research. Well done!

[DIY410]

Every study fails to include the emissions during the extaction of crude oil, transport of crude oil to India. This emissions will still impact India and the world.

But for the scope of this thread, lets just stick with pollution within India.

You still have to refine the crude oil and it uses about 1.3 kWh of electricity to make 1 Liter of petrol. This petrol then needs to be transported either by train or a large 40K Liter tanker truck to a city depot and from there it needs to transported to every petrol bunk by a 12K liter tanker truck.

You still need to use electrical energy in the petrol bunk to pump the petrol to the vehicle.

Where as electricity once produced at source is going to travel at nearly the speed of light and the transportation of which is free.

Also a significant portion of the EV buyers have roof top solar.

[navinmra]

Very very detailed analysis indeed. It doesn’t take into account mining and refining costs of gasoline and lithium which can further complicate the verdict. That said, few things stood out for me:

1. Like in the ICE world, size matters in the EV world. An Audi eTron is as much an energy guzzler over an MG comet as a Hummer over a Fiat 500 in the ICE world. Going EV is not a blank chit.

2. Tailpipe emissions in the cities are hard to control and very dependent on individual driving habits and maintenance levels. BS6 RDE tries to highlight this aspect. On the other hand, EVs can give immediate respite to this local pollution, although grid emissions will go up.

3. The grid will get cleaner. Hence it still makes sense to go EV. And lastly,

4. Lithium mining is seen as the next Frankenstein as demand goes up. However there is huge opportunity in lithium recycling or urban mining as it is called. So we may not exactly be mining lithium proportional to its consumption. At least that is my hope.

Oh. And before I close, one more thing. I am still a big fan of hypermiling, and even more so in the EV world. It is an oft overlooked individual level behavior change that will go a very long way in reducing our carbon footprint for posterity.

[SKC-auto]

Emissions during extraction, transportation and refining of oil is intentionally excluded in the analysis?

The author should respond why well to wheel analysis is not done for ICE cars and accept this is not a complete analysis. Staying silent will not instill confidence.

Lithium import from China is not equal to oil import, EVs use 5-7kg of lithium, a simple 500km trip requires 25-40kg of oil.

Today, 90% of lithium batteries are recycled for 95% of the minerals, so no lithium, cobalt, nickel extraction worries.

The grid is becoming green with added battery storage and renewables.

[ais]

Originally Posted by niranjanprabhu

I would sincerely appeal to all in this thread to please watch this brilliant video that explains the deeper aspects of the energy mix conundrum.
https://Youtu.be/1oVrIHcdxjA?si=QU0y5x8yzOfDJXfK

This video clarifies a lot.

And I am highly conscious about protecting the environment and do what I can to protect it. Below is an example- I would see smoke emanating evvery day from a green area near Western Express Highway, Bandra, while passing through it every day. About 6 months ago, I mapped the location, estimated the source location, guessed the institution located there- National Society For CLEAN CITIES India was the culprit. I called them up and warned them of consequences. The pollution stopped for a few weeks. Then the pollution resumed.

https://youtu.be/POSirU6zYgo?feature=shared

Last week I got a chance to stop and locate the exact source and record a video. I visited the nearest police station and had the Sub Inspector call them up, then visited the institution personally and warned them of legal and media action.

So I am more than an armchair activist in this field.

But I am also a driving enthusiast.

Would I test drive an EV yet and feel guilty about pushing my tuned Polo at every possible opportunity? No.

It is for the government to get its policies on clean power generation sorted (are moving towards renewable but still not eliminating setting up new thermal plants), taxation on vehicles based on emissions, controlling emissions from existing vehicles, managing traffic, upgrading public transport etc.

[ritedhawan]

To my small brain, whom once confronted with numbers and graphs, starts breaking down and my eyes start watering up as I strain them to look intensely at the graphs, numbers and formula's , an exercise in futility as eyes cannot do the job that brain does, and the latter simply gives up.

Chaffing or banter aside. It was clear as day light to me from the very beginning that a grid which sources its power from coal based plants which generate immense amount of gases to generate the same power which would end up charging BEV's. Then at the end of the day what difference does it make to the environment. Tail pipe emissions replaced with emissions from coal based power plants. Someone, stated --again due cognizance to be placed on my small brain inability in understanding numbers-- that wind, solar based power plants have superseded coal based, a statement difficult for me to believe in.

Anyways, if my small brain refuses to believe that coal based plants have been superseded by wind and solar power generation. Then whether I drive a fuel based car or a BEV, it makes no difference to environment , the former directly and the latter indirectly adds to emissions. But if I stretch it a bit, then I should stop using metro, well it may be sourcing its power from those emission based power plants that emit tons and tons of gases.So cant use cars, cant use metro, maybe wait for a CNG bus to show up, but then again CNG buses are being converted to electric ones, maybe take the bycycle out , but then the air outsie is so bad, so thats not it.

Hmm, then If I want to sleep well at night in the firm belief that today I did not contribute directly or indirectly to emissions. Then I need not stretch a bit but a whole hog. Well, need to start switching home appliances from sourcing electricity from grid, but instead invest in setting up solar panels across the length and breadth of the roof of my house in New Delhi. Then, pray for sunshine at this time , during the onset of winter with all that smog in the air, so that it enables the household appliances to work well. Then buy a BEV, to charge it using the power off the solar panels. Then may be I can sleep well at night , that I didnt contribute to Emissions in the environment. Hmm, my small brain starts thinking, well, not worth the effort: WHY!!??. Well, my contribution did not offset anything, its not even a drop in the ocean!. Yes, only one respite : I can sleep well at night.

Some ruminations, from my small brain, and I am already feeling tired, maybe I strained it a lot.

Again, Chaffing or banter aside, its not worth it!.

[Shresth_EV]

Originally Posted by pqr

Published EV range : Understanding MIDC vs. WLTC difference

Fuel consumption figures derived based on standard formulas during this cycle are reported as fuel efficiency by manufacturers; these figures are byproducts of emission testing procedures.

Worldwide Harmonized Light Vehicle Test Procedure

Since MIDC is not close to realistic real-world driving conditions, the real range of current BEV products is even lower than manufacturers' reported data by 20% to 40% in real-world conditions.

What about hybrid electric vehicles or strong hybrids?

Now at this stage a comparison can be drawn on emissions, as both technologies have direct or indirect CO₂ emissions over the Indian subcontinent.

At 27.97 km/l claimed fuel efficiency, Toyota Hyryder’s HEV CO₂ output would be 84.8 g/km. Hyryder is a bigger car here, but the CO₂ operating range of the Nexon EV and Hyryder HEV in real-world conditions remains largely in the same ballpark of 100-125 g/km, even if Hyryder’s real-world efficiency drops to 20 kmpl.

Data here is quite an eye opener, as neither Tata nor Toyota have ever substantiated their claim of protecting the environment in terms of CO₂ in the Indian public domain.

The same inaccuracies of Range measurement which plagues EVs also extends equally to ICE/Hybrid emission tests as well.

In fact, even WLTP numbers show discrepancies in the RDE and Lab tested figures for EU market vehicles. The formulaic derivation of ICE/Hybrid emissions are underestimated by wide margin.

Maruti Brezza : Mild hybrids based on 12V electric architecture case study

BS6 emission phase:

CO₂ emission difference between 5MT and 4AT was 13 g/Km, or 9% due to Maruti’s mild hybrid system.

BS6 2nd generation Brezza:

The CO2 gap between variants equipped with mild-hybrid technology is as high as 14%. Further, Maruti introduced the CNG version without mild hybrid, and the CO2 level is 107 g/km, slightly lower than the BS4 diesel version.

Are these improvements also derived from formulaic emissions or real world emissions? It would seem disingenuous if only EVs are held upto scrutiny in demanding "real world" emissions while all other powertrains get free run in usage of formulaic, lab tested MIDC figures.

Maruti’s CNG portfolio has substantially lower CO₂ emissions compared to conventional petrol engines. Thus serving an effective alternative environment-friendly option. Strong-hybrid technology based Grand Vitara and large MPVs like Invicto have even lower CO₂ impacts.

NOx & SOx

NOx emission data is published by every manufacturer in Form 22; however, that data set is not publicly available for every car for this research purpose. reduction in air pollution and lowering greenhouse gas emissions

I thought this thread should be relevant here since NOx and CNG were discussed back to back : https://www.team-bhp.com/forum/india...reen-fuel.html (New Delhi Traffic Pollution Sensors debunk notion that CNG is a ‘Green Fuel')

ICCT conducted this India study on CNG vehicles with the support of the local transport and police departments in Delhi and Gurugram, on its southern border. The two cities are among the 20 most polluted globally.

“For the first time in India, we have collected significant emissions data from motor vehicles on the road and it is crucial to remember that what impacts our air quality is not the laboratory emissions but the pollutants released by these vehicles when they are in operation. Therefore, it’s time to reimagine our emissions testing regime and aggressively push for the adoption of zero-emission vehicles,” said Amit Bhatt, India managing director of ICCT.
CNG is not a ‘clean’ fuel
According to the study, CNG vehicles emitted very high levels of nitrogen dioxide and other oxide of nitrogen (NOx) emissions, challenging the narrative that CNG is a ‘clean’ alternative fuel.

NOx causes shortness of breath, irritation in the eyes, nose and throat in acute exposures. But there’s also substantial evidence of excess rates of asthma and impeded lung development amongst children growing up along busy highways where NOx emissions are high. Chronic NOx exposure can lead to the development of a range of lung diseases in the long term. For example, some light goods vehicles, commonly seen ferrying vegetables and other supplies in the city, emit up to 14.2 times their lab limits, and taxis are four times.

Originally Posted by electric_eel

3. Keep mouth shut about other emissions during oil extraction like gas flaring etc.

Gas Flaring is a very important metric considering not only is the burnt off Methane contributing to CO2, the unburnt is escaping and causing even more global warming as Methane is much more potent GHG than CO2

And here as well, in classic oil industry fashion, there are nothing but lies and underestimated figures : https://www.catf.us/2022/04/ieas-met...l-inventories/

Originally Posted by shyampsunder

Toyota Hyryder's base direct emissions at manufacturer stated mileage: 84.8g/KM

Correcting for real world mileage at 20 KM/l: 114g/KM

Correcting for indirect emissions at 40% of direct emissions: 160g/KM

Therefore the strong hybrid emits 42% more CO2 per KM than an EV after accounting for lifecycle greenhouse gas emissions.

And even these figures are probably an underestimate considering that the base value of 84.8g/km relies on formulaic derivation, and not real world driving emissions.

As per ICCT research: "Results show that even for cars registered today, battery electric vehicles (BEVs) have by far the lowest life-cycle GHG emissions. As illustrated in the figure below, emissions over the lifetime of average medium-size BEVs registered today are already lower than comparable gasoline cars by 66%–69% in Europe, 60%–68% in the United States, 37%–45% in China, and 19%–34% in India.

Even better, IEA has a full fledged LCA calculator for EVs : https://www.iea.org/data-and-statist...ent-calculator



Parameters used :

Region : India

EV consumption: 157Wh/km (thats the lowest the calculator accepts but it is routinely possible to hit 120-130Wh/km on Indian compact EVs.

Battery capacity: 47kWh (300km range @ 157Wh/km)

Grid emissions: 717 gCO2/KWh.

Daily usage: 40km

ICE mileage: 15kmpl

Ethanol/Biodiesel: 20%

A typical medium car with a petrol (gasoline) engine bought in India and driven 40 km per day will be responsible for life-cycle emissions of 42.5 t of CO2-eq over a 15-year lifetime in the Stated Policies scenario with an electricity emissions intensity of 717 gCO2/KWh.

An equivalent battery EV with a 300 km range would produce 32.4 t, 24% less over its lifetime than a conventional internal-combustion vehicle and 5% more than an equivalent plug-in hybrid EV. Despite higher manufacturing emissions associated with producing the battery, the battery EV's cumulative emissions are lower than those of its internal-combustion equivalent after 4 years.

Originally Posted by pqr

However, at nigh time there won’t be any solar power contribution to grid electricity; overall CO₂ output will be much higher—up to 0.970 t/MWh. This is crucial because several EV users charge their cars at night.

While of course generation capacity is not equal to production because the production factor is much lower for renewables, it is clear that the majority of net new demand was actually met by renewables and it's not relevant to look at the existing grid's composition.

This is all the more reason to go all out on deployment of trickle chargers in every car park (15A socket will also do) to improve low PLF of daytime solar generation through workplace charging.

Originally Posted by pqr

Attachment 2680912

For illustration, if we remove the GST part from the car price of Tata Nexon’s ICE and BEV products, having similar features and equipment levels, the price gap is nearly ~30%. This gap is due to battery and electric motor costs.

Minor nitpick, but Empowered is one trim above Fearless Trim.

When comparing fearless trim on each car, even when using the example of the recently updated 45kWh variant (rather than the 30kWh variant considered above) reveals much smaller price gap in terms of exShowroom prices.



Ex factory prices of the three models would come to 10.5L, 11L and 14.3L

The breakeven costs would also change accordingly, so will the computed import value for the EV. This particular model comes with 45kWh, not 30kWh as in case of Empowered MR.

Hybrid and Alternative ICEs:After all, end customers need affordable vehicles that are financially viable and self-sustainable without GST support, unlike current EVs.

It would be interesting to see the GST/import considerations of Hybrids as well.

One interesting metric which I often wonder about is the amortised import costs reduction (battery/fuel) compared to the tax foregone by government.

Maybe that can also give us some insights as to whether government’s current hybrid taxation stance is economically sound or not?

Let’s say hybrid improves mileage from 16kmpl to 24kmpl. So does the saving in import of crude oil by 8kmpl difference make up for “revenue loss” proposed tax cuts on hybrids as requested by Japanese Auto manufacturers?

As per what I computed through this crude import saving calculator on government site : https://e-amrit.niti.gov.in/crude-oi...ngs-calculator

An EV driven 10,000km per year saves 684L of crude per year and 5500L over 8y span (control ICE being 16kmpl)

That’s 35 barrels of oil import worth 90$ each, or a total saving of $3000 (~₹2.7L)

Even the max subsidy offered for ev’s was ₹1.5L so it’s well below the savings offered by govt

The benchmark of this crude saving is 16kmpl vehicle on website which means a hybrid vehicle getting 24kmpl, the same saving is just 228L per year or 10 barrels over 8y coming to just ₹75K worth of crude import bill savings.

Please verify and correct if my calculation is wrong.